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igor67

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Everything posted by igor67

  1. igor67
    Just ran a couple of quick numbers trying to parse the Muscle's hot streak. It's all power. The thing that sticks out is his batting average, but just looking at his major league ABs this year even if you assume all of his 5 singles were lucky bloop hits and rerun his OBP and SLG he still has a .333 OBP and is SLG over .700. His K rate is very close to his career rate (he is slightly under, but if you give him just one more K he'd be over so he's essentially right there). His walk rate is up somewhat right now, but that's not driving a lot of his numbers. He is seemingly just finding away to make frightening contact.
  2. igor67
    I see your Frogtown and raise you North Minneapolis.
  3. igor67
    Minneapolis is definitely the evil twin
  4. igor67
    I find it interesting that a scout rated Brantley higher, but I suspect there might be some personal preference there, in terms of how they profile. Which is to say this particular scout might like athleticism, speed, and the contact rate over a prototypical lumberjack type first basemen. That said it really is a testament that to Brantely that anybody could remotely justify the statement.
  5. igor67
    Just looked at the current season UZR data and Beltre rates as the second best 3rd basemen there, though he is near a number of other guys. So my guess is that the BP numbers are the outlier here. Although I'd still question if his defense is enough of an asset at this point. Might make an interesting platoon with Branyan. You can go r/L or offense/defense.
  6. igor67
    Beltre looked kind of interesting but according to BP his defensive statistics have been below average the last two years. Not horribly so, but not the defensive whiz he was earlier in his career. And a decline in defense starts much earlier than offensive decline. Without the well above average defense he just isn't that interesting of a player. Erik Bedard on the other hand. His K rate has dropped from last year but it is completely in line with all of his other previous seasons. His walk rate is also up somewhat and is still somewhat consistent with past performances. His HR is the only thing out of line and 1.1/ 9 innings is not exactly horrible (about 25 in a full season). His DERA is only 4.19, which ain't bad and out of the DH league you could expect an ERA at or below 4.0 going forward. I definitely think he is a player you could buy low on with someone who wants to clean house.
  7. igor67
    If his Ks are down along with his walks is it possible that he's let up just enough to get some more control? In any event I'm all for riding this batch of success as long as it continues. Sometimes those stuff guys can finally get enough control to be effective.
  8. igor67
    With his two walks Salome pushed his walk rate past the 1bb / AB milestone. Nice to see those secondary stats keep rising because I don't think he can maintain a .340+ batting average with his K-rate.
  9. igor67
    I agree on the sentiment for that for a rental none of our premium prospects should go. I'd much rather pursue something outside the box of conventional wisdom like seeing if San Fransisco would be interested in Prince, since they have arms but can't seem to develop any bats.
  10. igor67
    Aramis Ramirez. Interesting case for a little career comparison.
  11. igor67
    Sounds like the Brewers might be trying a different sort of draft and follow type process. Not a bad way to try and sort through some of those arms.
  12. igor67
    I was looking at Huntsville's division and just amazed that they weren't 5 games out in front because of how great the line-up is. Then I noticed they only had 1 sub .500 team in the division and then they were still at .475 winning percentage. I suspect that the teams in the division are quite strong this year in general. Otherwise I just can't imagine them not running away with the division on just average pitching.
  13. igor67
    I don't know how the logistics are going to work out, but looking at rounds 5-20 I see some good value there. It may not strictly be true, but I think it is finding the players to develop in the middle rounds that separates the OK scouting directors from the really good ones. In this case there seemed to be a number of players who profiled as bullpen guys. Given the logistics and the need for the Brewers to get back to developing some relievers those are both good things. Unless you are the Devils rays and draft 1st or second every year for a decade I don't think it is possible to have a system without "weaknesses". The Brewers really were very over balanced on bats. I think it is more than reasonable to view Lawrie as a C/3B solution. Add in some middle infielders for general atheleticism and I think the draft effort makes a lot of sense. Compared to most points in the last 10 years catcher and 3rd base were both better stocked before the draft then they have been in general. Green and Gamel are pretty good potential and depth at third and Salome and Lucroy are pretty good for catchers. To a certain extent I would argue that those positions seem weak partially because 1st/OF is so ridiculously deep and strong. Also a person could make an argument that middle infield might actually be the weakest on the diamond.
  14. igor67
    Cutter and Maverick really do need to play on the same team. Just imagine how confusing that could be to call if Maverick actually through a cutter http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  15. igor67
    Congratulations Toby!
  16. igor67
    Do you think the Brewers targeted pitchers a little bit in the early going? I think I like the mix I have near complete faith in the bats that Jack drafts in the first round so I'm very happy with Lawrie particularly because he's got some defensive freedom. I wouldn't like going all high risk, but nabbing as many pitchers so far as the team has it makes it a little more palatable to go for the home run with Friedirckson. If he pans out it's an awesome pick, if not he shouldn't be the focus.
  17. igor67
    I didn't catch the actual interview, but it is funny listening to the snippet of your interview on XM colbyjack. http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif
  18. igor67
    You know I almost feel bad for Errecart and Gillespie. Both players are completely out hitting what most of the current Brewers did in AA, and they are a complete footnote on that team. The offensive level in the league has to be up a little bit more than normal, because otherwise this team should have a just ridiculous record instead of a really good one.
  19. igor67
    I certainly agree that absent some more power Brantley would see a drop in his major league walk rate. However his contact rate is so exceptional I think there is still something very intriguing about his game. Take for example the best contact hitter I can recall short of Ichiro. Eric Young in his best years got about 40 Ks in 600 ABs. Brantley is doing significantly better than that at 11/214. Being that far on the extreme I think is something that will help him translate better than say Gwynn who walks some, but makes pretty poor contact for a guy with no power. He is even better than Juan Pierre and has the additional advantage of a way better walk rate at all minor league levels than Pierre ever did.
  20. igor67
    I was just looking over at baseball prospectus at some translated stats for Huntsville guys. They currently have Gamel's peak translation at .330/.400/.610, which is pretty awesome. More interestingly though according to their defensive system they had him as modestly positive for the year a +3. For comparison Escobar was +11.
  21. igor67
    I think there is a fair amount of legitimacy in what you say Joe, though I'd say my skepticism has more to do with the small portion of the season we are talking about. At this point I'm comfortable talking about Gamel as a .300+ hitter, but based on near absurd numbers for two months I can't project him to be a perennial contender for a batting title. Now if He still is .370+ at the end of the year given the tough nature of the Southern league I'd find it more reasonable to think about him as a .320+ type hitter.
  22. igor67
    I think your comment deserves some further development Al. Boras' negotiation strategy clearly maximizes his own financial reward because he can spread out the risk of the occaisonal Harrington against the paydays he gets for his other clients. The flipside to that though is that for an individual draftee (particularly a pitcher) fighting for that last few hundred thousand vs. the risk of losing 7 figures is silly. The argument given is that for a number of them that is possibly the only chance they get at big money, so they need to maximize it. They also can't afford to leave it sitting on the table.
  23. igor67
    Many years ago now I described Hall as a player who had a ceiling of a Jose Hernandez. I meant that as a compliment because Jose was a pretty good SS. Hall has shown flashes of being better than that with more power, but generally spottier walking ability and hitting for average. More pronounced over the years he has shown pretty dramatic platoon splits. Consistently putting up at best merely mediocre numbers against righties, but hammering lefties. All in all he is not worth dropping or anything like that, but given his strengths and weaknesses at this point the team is better off with the platoon. Value wise the start to this year has cemented the most fair estimation as a reasonable starter at some positions, and an awesome utility guy. Very similar to Jose and given his strikeout totals he is likely to see more VARIATION in his batting average which can lead to these really low current totals.
  24. igor67
    Escobar's walk numbers are still weak, but his battinga average has sure been rocketing upwards the last week or so. His slugging at .394 as well so his stick is getting closer to a level that would make me feel he can be more than just a Craig Counsell good defense and very questionable stick.
  25. igor67
    I think you missed who Boras would have demand a trade in my bit of humor.
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