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igor67

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Everything posted by igor67

  1. igor67
    Those differences are pretty small and if they are significantly different in a statistical sense it's not that much. As one example based solely on the batting average difference the RISP OPS should be .018 points lower, instead it is only .012. Which means they have done some combination of hitting for more power and taking more walks in those situations.
  2. igor67
    Another way to look at the free agent market is elite players only. I'm not saying that it hasn't happened, but for longsih term contract for guys who have established star level track records and are still on the good side of 30, how many of those have actually blown up? You might see sometimes a team signed a guy and it was a poor fit because they spent money on one guy when they needed lots of talent, but it sure seems like the elite guys because they are so good are worth every penny.
  3. igor67
    Depending on where Hardy finishes the season offensively I could go for the third base argument provided I was convinced he'd get to well above average over there. For it to be worthwhile he needs to have a bat that will be average or better at the position for some time yet and then he needs to be that plus glove to make him really valuable. Otherwise it is like taking an asset and wasting it. If he finished the year at .360 and .500 for OBP and SLG you probably have to look at it.
  4. igor67
    Seriously I think you have to try and ride the euphoria of the year and resign both Ben and CC to Santana like contracts and then see where you can cut back at some other places. Premium starting pitching and young hitting talent is the mix for a lot of success.
  5. igor67
    A huge conceptual problem in this discussion is a mixing of levels of explanation and probability. You can very simply model a team as a winning percentage and predict wins and loses quite accurately. If you are taking that approach as Rluz is above then there is no evidence for predictive value of streaks. On the other hand there are many factors that go into determining the actual winning percentage. It is hypothetically possible that the "confidence" of being hot is a factor at this level. However if you ask what it takes to win 9 in a row you come up with a very different probability set up. In that case every individuals performance becomes it's own random percentage. I'd argue that almost everytime a team goes on a long winning streak it is because a lot of those lower level probabilities came up positive. The odds of that continuing are smaller in general and would almost certainly swamp any modest "confidence" effect.
  6. igor67
    2nd round picks are pretty valuable, but there rate of making the majors is a lot below the first round rate. I don't have exact percentages, but I certainly think it is reasonable to take a big swing for the fences on a guy who could be special even if he has a low probability of making it. You certainly don't want to do it all the time, but I agree with Patrick you have to keep taking your shots to have a chance at the All-stars.
  7. igor67
    I think the Nats return is more like Hernan Irribarren or Callix Crabbe then Taylor Green. That does understate things a bit, still I've gotta think that there was some strange fascination because I'm pretty sure Doug could have and would have done better otherwise.
  8. igor67
    For the record I think starting the worse of two defensive options at second base for Suppan would not be a good idea. I like the idea of not going all subs in the same game too.
  9. igor67
    I could care less about Heath Ledger, but his Joker was at least an order of magnitude better than Nicholson's. The phrase pyshcopathic clown has often been used but other performances have often suffered from too much clown and not enough pyschopath. I can finally believe in the Joker being Batman's archenemy now.
  10. igor67
    Looking at those defensive numbers I still think they really mess up Hardy because of his positioning and under rate him.
  11. igor67
    I have my doubts about Roberts mostly because Angelos has been such an idiot about the whole idea of trading him. That aside I have this feeling that "going for it" this year and Brian Roberts looks like sabotaging next year's team and the one after that. In principle I'm for getting Roberts, but it sure seems like that the price is not going to be a good match.
  12. igor67
    Just following up on the distinction between translations and projections. The translation is designed to tell you what the players performance would look like in a different context environment. A good translation should account for any park effects and the difficulty of the league if it is a minor league. A projection is designed to tell you what a player will do, at the root of any good projection is a good translation, and then things like the age of the player are taken into account. Any system that can do projections to 70% accuracy is pretty good since that is in the neighborhood of the normal variation in player stats just do to batting average. Further the research on minor league data shows that it is as useful for predicting major league performance as a rule as major league ABs. Now on a practical level there is more variation in a projection for an A ball player than a AAA player, but that is a side effect of measuring the league difficulties and having to project more growth from A ball numbers.
  13. igor67
    I recall reading a commentary I believe at Baseball prospectus that with the advent of pitch counts, starting pitchers are under utilized because managers now treat everyone the same. The original scheme was targeted toward reducing the wear on young arms. Older guys could and should be ridden a little harder. This makes a fair amount of sense to me and I'm onboard with Both of them routinely getting into the 110+ range and occaisionally into 120+. Over 130 would still be worrisome. Remember back in the old days when Cal Eldred would start a career with half a dozen or more starts at 140 pitches or so.
  14. igor67
    I just want to voice some skepticism in terms of actual benefits of these trades. There's about 70 games left in the season. As painful as Gagne and Mota have been to watch at times relievers as a group have large variances in their performance, so these middle of the road guys have a better shot then we'd like to admit of being perfectly mediocre. I agree with the not giving up an arm and a leg approach. I'm skeptical I'd give up much of anything truthfully. And what is Ray Durham supposed to give us that we don't have already? He's terribly limited defensively, and subpar at second to boot. He's what maybe a notch above Dillion offensively? We could get more positional flexibility and the OBP skills calling up Nelson. My price at this point is to let them pick over the triple A guys after Nelson, Rottino, and Hernan. And that ain't much.
  15. igor67
    How about Komatsu's stunningly low K total of 6 in 95 AB! And he's not that old either at only 20.
  16. igor67
    Through yesterday's game Baseball prospectus gives the following major league translation of Nelson's season 271 .370 .434. They have the OBP with a bit more staying power then his power production, but still good for an .804 OPS. They listed his translated EQA as .280 compared to the average first basemen this year in MLB at .278. I stick by my notion that he's shown enough to possibly have a Matt Stairs type career path, though Mike Stanley is more likely either way I see no reason to trade for a left handed bat when we've got a pretty good one their for the taking.
  17. igor67
    Let's be ever so slightly fair the article merely stated that Bowden had been part of the investigation, which is logical if people directly under him had been doing fraudulent things. And this week's revelation about the Ramsey case should remind us the value of not jumping too far ahead of the facts. That said Brian's comment pretty much sums up how I feel about however was doing this.
  18. igor67
    Lefty 4th/5th starters also have value as cheap rotation filler and depth.
  19. igor67
    It's possible, but I'm sure to stay he'd still want a contract similar to Santana's. I personally think it's worth the Brewers doing that, and signing Sheets, largely because premium starters are so hard to find, while we seem quite good at cranking out cheap bats.
  20. igor67
    Mike Baio, Scott's son
  21. igor67
    If I may randomly insert an idea related to the salary coming off the books. Given the number of cheap bats in the system, and the general trend that pitching prospects are much less reliable, why not go aggressive and try to sing both Sheets and Sabathia for in the neighborhood of 20 million/ season? When you realize Gagne and Cameron get you your first 20 million and Sheets plus CC remaining salary is close to another 20 million. Now maybe they are both set on going down the free agency road, but I think it makes way more sense as a strategy to focus on premium pitching talent and cheap developable bats for a real sustained run on a moderate budget.
  22. igor67
    My guess is that if CC took a lifetime discount on MGD and Brats for a slightly favorable long term contract he could achieve that diety like status as well.
  23. igor67
    I'm still rather underwhelmed by what the Cubs had to give up, however based on Beane's track record and the clear health flags, I'm kind of moving into the camp where he might have actually gotten a very good deal. I think comparing Gallagher as a prospect to something between Villy and Parra is fairly accurate. Add in Murton and I can see where it's possible to get comparable production that you might see from a semi-healthy Harden. I'm actually more happy about the Cubs doing the deal. They don't have a lot of bullets in the trade gun to stay young and they burned two of their better ones. As other have pointed out looking at what their other top prospects have done this year, it's almost the exact opposite of what the Brewers minor leaguers did. Now some of that both ways might be a little flukish, but this deal puts the Cubs closer to a Yankee style decline sooner. And to make matters worse for the Cubs I think this deal may actually have worsened their chances of winning the division this year (playoff chances probably not so much). Basically they have a greater overall injury risk to the rotation and they have worse depth to fill it with than they did before the deal. On balance if Harden goes down it's pretty much a wash of what they had before the deal. They have a much higher risk though of losing two guys to injury, which could really put them in a bad spot.
  24. igor67
    What is likely is that based on an initial budget projection the Brewers are going well over what they could "safely" spend. I doubt they built their budget on assuming nearly 3 million in attendance. My guess would be that they probably projected a pretty comparable attendance figure to last year, assuming that an upside risk would give them some other options. They certainly couldn't budget revenue from a possible playoff birth. Even using that 7 million figure if the Brewers only play one playoff series that's still an extra 2 million in revenue, plus at least a comparable amount from increased regular season attendance. All of that though is a footnote to the real benefits. The data has consistently shown that a first time playoff birth has only a modest affect on that season, but gives a huge boost to the next years attendance figures (exempting the Marlins who twice completely trashed that fan interest with firesales). Now given how much the Brewers numbers have gone up already they might not see as big a spike as other teams have, but they do have a marketing opportunity with Brett's retirement to capture a bigger share of the state's attention, which can certainly increase merchandising. I think the real deep, hidden benefit though is building that interest for 2012 when the Brewers can finally renegotiate the worst TV deal in MLB.
  25. igor67
    I definitely like the option year because Marte has been fairly consistently good as a reliever. With him, Riske, Villy, and Torres back you'd have a pretty good starting point for a bullpen next year too. I don't have a good idea on what they would want. I'd like to unload Mota just to help the salaries for this year balance, but that probably doesn't add a lot of value http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/smile.gif. I think in general trading A ball pitchers who have some promise for well established major league pitchers is a good strategy, but giving up 3 might be too much depth.
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