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igor67

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Everything posted by igor67

  1. igor67
    It's what I've been saying all along, we'll win out (maybe 5-1) the Cards will play out of their minds sweeping the Cubs and the Rockies will play well enough so that on the last day of the season we clinch the division beating the Cards with both the Cards and Cubs going home with nothing wondering how it all happened...
  2. igor67
    That feels like the most loaded group of prospects we've sent to the Fall league in a single year.
  3. igor67
    Don't settle for just lucking into the playoffs, I want the whole thing.
  4. igor67
    They've just been conserving runs in the second half for September and October.
  5. igor67
    Ueck used to talk about framing quite often, I'm rarely in radio range anymore but it was kind of funny when the numbers guys got all excited that they had found this huge effect.
  6. igor67
    If the stuff is there for Williams why not try him in something simple, and see if he can give you 10 or so great innings since no one has a scouting report? I'm not saying it's going to happen, but we are actually calling up guys with talent who are more then just prayers to be better.
  7. igor67
    20 HRs in a minor league season from a 21 year old is pretty good. Certainly enough that it invalidates concerns about height and projection. The power is playing in games against good competition and he is not getting help from his ballparks. Hopefully he continues to refine his game and can improve incrementally on the swing and miss part and he could be really good.
  8. igor67
    Win!!!!
  9. igor67
    Stokes seems to have adjusted well so far to AA, Still too early to tell for Gatewood, though doubling the number of triples he had in Carolina already is a funny quirk.
  10. igor67
    We've had the worst record of any team since the All-star game and are still right there.
  11. igor67
    The analytics say nothing of the sort they provide a range of predictions. For example Fangraphs was quoted earlier they actually have 3 different playoff percentage methodologies. 1) assumes teams play the remainder of the season like originally projected in April. 2) play the rest of the season assuming the teams current performance is their real talent level. and 3) flip a coin for each game. I consider method 1 to be ridiculously pessimistic, since we had many young player legitimately develop into better players then predicted at this point. That said 2 is too optimistic, and 3 is just kind of there. Baseball prospectus does a projection based on combining how good players where expected to be with how well they have done to generate a more middle of the road projection and the most realistic in my mind. Depending on which method though you get 12%, 40%, 44%, or 30% as of today. Half of the methods make the Brewers favorites to make the playoffs over the Cubs even after about the worst week possible.
  12. igor67
    Ronnie Gideon just serves as this year's reminder not to get to excited about college guys like Clark putting up big numbers in the Pioneer league. More then a few over the years have watched that bat disappear in A ball.
  13. igor67
    I'm in the this is a solid move crowd. Given the losing streak a big trade looks less likely, but addressing an obvious weakness for a middle of the road guy at your deepest position and likely to get caught in a roster crunch is a pretty low price to pay.
  14. igor67
    It's all about setting up the Cubs with a false sense of security leading up to the deadline. We'll sweep them to end the month and leave them wondering if they'll have to wait over a century again for another WS!
  15. igor67
    Count me in on not quite understanding Erceg nudging out many of those other players. Maybe Gatewood if you nudge him down for moving to first base, but between the youth and the better tools I'd figure he'd still have the edge. Harrison for sure now that he is doing it at A+. I'm not going to despair over Erceg's down season, but it is a very competitive list.
  16. igor67
    In the 22 completed seasons of the National League Central's history the division leader has finished with less then 90 wins 6 times, and baseball prospectus simulation has them at 86.5. Which means there is roughly a 1/4-1/3 chance any given year that a so-so team wins and every year under the expanded wildcard at least 1 of the teams has also needed less then 90 wins. In short if you think the Brewers are in anyway shape or form a better then .500 team next year the 'window' is open. Whether or not it's going to be a good year is very up in the air. One finds a similar number of really high win totals being needed to win the division as well. Which is helpful because with better luck the Brewers could have snuck a 3rd playoff appearance via the wild card in the last run. Worse luck however would have been possible and the Brewers could have also finished that span with exactly 1 wildcard appearance and no division champs even with a 96 and 90 win seasons in there. The bar is a little lower now, so it really does pay to have a team that is in the mix and adjust frankly based on how lucky they are that year internally and how well the rest of the division is doing.
  17. igor67
    Nic Pierre now has a 7 game streak of 2 hit games going
  18. igor67
    I agree that early extensions are the name of the game, but we can only do so many before topping out the payroll. Not all players are equally risky when it comes to extensions. Age is a large factor, so is position, and player skill set. You can't eliminate the risk, but generally the worst player to lock up are the 3TO types who are late bloomers.
  19. igor67
    Externally you have to assume that the Cubs will not spend the first half+ looking like Sal Bando is in charge. I would be very surprised if Brinson and/or Phillips is not handed a full time shot. Which could be amazing, but so many guys have broken out this year that regression does seem in order, probably moreso on the pitching side as we are going to have to work in some of the real prospects, not nuggets that Stearns found. I could see the bullpen being better with so many young guys really ready to give it a go, but the rotation. Our current win% puts us on pace for 88-89 wins. I expect more like 84, but with a large margin either way. If we can find a way to acclimate the AAA wave 2019 onward could look real exciting though.
  20. igor67
    Harrison would have an overall SLG across both levels of .506 if you included his 2 HR all-star performance and an OPS over .860 to go with it. Given how super toolsy both he and Gatewood are I can only dream they take another development step forward half as far as they did this year and we're looking at 2 top 10 prospects.
  21. igor67
    I shortchanged myself a little bit in my initial post, partially because any definition is going to be a little bit fuzzy but I never said they had to retire with the Brewers only that one should think about that kind of longevity is a potential. My rationale behind that description was that typically people in the past have argued to lock core players up to long term deals like we did with Braun. Now that doesn't guarantee they retire with us for a variety of reasons, but if you are thinking of going with a long term deal you need to be prepared for injury driven retirements and the like. Trying to be too specific on length of deals for core players gets pretty crazy because even a 5 year deal on someone like Shaw could go south by the time he's 32. I wouldn't worry hugely about it, but it starts to enter my mind. It also depends on young vs. old player skills and just a bunch of other things. Every player is a separate conversation about where is that line. So while unclear I think I've been relatively consistent. If people want to define 'core' as important guys that's fine, but I do not understand how that helps figure out who to trade, extend, or release. I'm comfortable with a definition that says we have a lot of good interesting players who could be here for a few years or might all be moved to let younger prospects play.
  22. igor67
    Almost all of them seem really important anymore, unless I know the Cubs already lost earlier in the day. That end of July series is going to be pretty intense unless something really bizarre happens.
  23. igor67
    Part of my reasoning for that phrasing is that it provides some clarity, who is worth the risk of a 5+ year contract? Based on the other examples people are providing the other attempts to define a core are whose worth having around for awhile? That's not just subjective it's downright unhelpful for making decisions. We've got a ton of player who we very easily could feel very differently about their evaluations a year from now. A huge part of the roster management has been to rapidly cycle through a lot of guys looking for an opportunity one last time to prove themselves. Between being good at identifying candidates, being willing on that strategy to move on from guys, and a crazy amount of luck that that many nuggets paid off in the same season well, next year could be very different regardless of what any other team in the central does.
  24. igor67
    I set the bar high because especially with our payroll limitations (not that we are close at the moment) it gets very easy to use up those salary dollars on a couple of guys who are 2-5 year peak players, but get stuck paying for years 6-8. I'm not unwilling to spend on guys between 27-32 who are above average, but it is tricky to spend on the right ones. Particularly since we do have a deep farm system and to keep things going many of those veteran players are the ones that you should make sure to trade a year to soon instead of a year too late. When it comes down to it I do believe Nelson's break out is legitimate, but he's a pitcher so if we can get a Gallardo like run out of him for 3-4 years that's great. Shaw might be a guy I take a slightly longer chance on, but 3rd basemen tend to age very poorly as a group. Santana I can also see keeping for awhile, but I'd move him in a heartbeat if I got comparable talent at thinner positions.
  25. igor67
    In my mind "Core" guys are those you are thinking could likely retire with the team. So players who are so good that even on down years they re still probably generating solid value. Which makes starting pitchers really hard to put into that category, too much of a chance of repeated break downs. Both Shaw and Santana as others have pointed out are either a bit old or have other flaws that keep them out of that category. Arcia comes to mind as the one guy who stands a good chance at the moment. A bunch of our prospects could be those guys as well, but time will tell.
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