igor67
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Everything posted by igor67
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I'll back Briggs on his point, in guruspace and brewerfanspace the farm system was bleak, the sky was falling... during those years and yet there was some definite value there. Certainly it seems like more value then we had when I got into this prospect thing back in the late 90's. We're not saying it was enough to build a winner from scratch or anything, but that there was more value then you'd expect for ranking in the bottom 5 farm systems. Without getting bogged down in familiar arguments about the relative merits of various particular names. Went back and checked the top 10s. From 1999-2001 the major leaguers produced by the Brewers farm system top 10 were Ben Sheet, Ronnie Belliard, Valerio De Lo Santos, and some glorified September call-ups after that. Were it not for Sheets that would be crazy awful. Fun Fact in 9 major league season VLDS accumulated only 1.0 WAR, Belliard has 20.7, Sheets with 26.1. Those last 2 totals are pretty valuable players. But it really represents the flipside of the idea that currently we have a ton of depth, but missing some superstars. The farm system in those years could barely produce replacement level players to provide depth let alone real starters.
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I agree that Broxton needs to get ABs over Kirk, the early part of the season was so bad it masks a pretty good july and August once he got back. It's also an issue of looking at all of the CFers coming down the road and trying to give as many prospects a chance to show what they can do. Brinson hasn't had much AAA time at all, so even if you think he is going to move quickly he easily warrants starting at AAA next year, but a strong chance of pushing for a midseason promotion. That gives Reed and Wren maybe some September ABs and the start of next year. With Santana likely being back that's 3 guys roughly competing for 1 starting spot. Based on this year Wren deserves the first shot if Broxton can't establish himself.
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Tyrone Taylor with a HR again tonight, says don't forget about me in CF too.
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Mostly because there are so many candidates I will take the field and not Brinson as the CFer of the future.
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homer for the win in every sense!
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I don't have a link, but I had come across an article a few days ago that pointed out that for all of the noise about the Pirates being a model franchise all of the young talent that actually was responsible for the 3 playoff appearances was the previous GMs responsibility and the young guys who were supposed to be making them this model have to this point done very little actual developing into productive major leaguers. I don't follow them closely enough to judge if that is legitimate at this moment, but my own suspicion is that without major resources the model of attempting to always cycle talent is doomed to end up looking like the window strategy anyway. There is so much variance in player performance year to year, as well as health and player development that you will end up with clustering of the playoff years regardless. Mostly driven by when you get a critical mass of prospects developing and playing together at a high enough level.
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I used to buy the struggling kool-aid, but like everything there can easily be too much of a good thing. The optimal amount of struggle for every person is different. What tempers and motivates one person will pummel another into submission. The challenge must be perceived as doable and a bunch of other things. All of which means that if you want to maximize the number of players who are improving your chances of that happening must be worse with extreme challenges.
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It would seem that we are going to be highly rated for at least another year, given the large number of well thought of players I don't think Arcia graduating actually makes a big impact on how people feel about the system. In fact if he plays reasonably well it might even enhance the feeling about the other players. On that front having climbed to the top of the mountain it isn't necessary for lots of guys to do well in the short term, it seems a lot more like those rating the prospects just need a couple of flashy guys at the top to help maintain everyone else. So if Brinson has a good end of the season along with 1 or 2 other guys from the top 10 that is probably enough helium to avoid too much talk of guys underperforming, for awhile.
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Scooter Gennett's trade value
igor67 replied to Harry Doyles JD's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
With Perez and Orf around for additional immediate middle IF support, I'd deal Scooter as soon as possible. I'm not expecting much, but I think either of the other two make for a better roster. I'd be happy to flip him for one other moderate prospect. Perhaps someone will have an injury and he'll make it through waivers in August. -
I wouldn't view them as new prospects it's more like the benefit of having the depth is that the number of guys to follow stays the same as the new crop sitting out for injuries are replaced by those recovering. It's a nice change that's for sure.
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Actually that reinforces the point none of those 3 players you mentioned (Davis, Cooper, Demuth) posted an .800 OPS at Brevard and your calling that a good season. That might be OK if we we're talking about middle IFers or catchers, but that is a highly warping perspective. Cooper was close to .800, but the other were not. All 3 are also known for power not being an important part of their prospect profile. I don't know to what extent that gets in players heads, but it is not hard to imagine weird consequences of an environment that extreme. We know that Coors messes with hitters when they go on the road and those are top level pros I would not be surprised to find out that even lefty batters (being in the minority) are influenced indirectly (if all your teammates are struggling).
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There have been a number of players in recent years who've kind of done the hybrid IF thing and gotten pretty valuable as a result. In terms of long term value Villar's defense at 3rd would be pretty important to figuring that out. If he goes from seriously below average D at SS to above average at 3rd he'd look similar to Jeff Cirillo (a little more speed and a little less power), which I'd take all day long. That's potentially a lot to hope for, but even with average D and some positional flexibility throughout the season is still pretty handy.
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I think when you are saying that the only 3 guys to hit well have substantial MVP voting years that pretty much nails how ridiculous the park is.
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Late to the party, but from a pure rebuilding perspective the biggest reason to want a substantive 3rd player is very simple. You need to replace and exceed the value these 2 players have provided to the team. I'm not a huge WAR person, but it does a good job of eyeballing how difficult that is. Using baseball reference Lucroy has accumulated 18.3 WAR, and Jeffress 3.6 (almost all of the positive with Milwaukee). I think it's been a little conservative on the value of Lucroy's D, but again going for the eyeball here. That's 22 WAR to try and beat (afterall they got that much value before and weren't winning). Well my google-fu was a bit mediocre, so using just the WAR value for the 1st 6 years of a players career draft picks in spots 1-5 in the 1st round average 9.2 WAR. Which means in a deal to come out ahead on prospects you have to get pretty lucky with just 2 of them, and for 3 of them still requires a lot of perceived value at the time of the trade.
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It's worth pointing out that based on the results of trades over the last few years there is no reason to believe that prior to selling this year and last the Brewers would have gotten anywhere near the level of prospects they are getting now. The market has changed substantially and while it would be hard to credit a front office with waiting out the market, it is certainly worth considering that if no one is dealing prospects of substance there is a lot more reason to play for today then just give your big leaguers away.
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I would largely agree with Crew07, but I would adjust my promotions in large part on make-up at some point. Success is very important, but the relative amount of struggle that different players can tolerate productively is going to be fairly variable.
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Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 4)
igor67 replied to wildcat2237's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
From a game theory perspective if you're worried about the other team's bullpen, the counter move is either Ace starters or improve the line-up and take your best shot to hit them early. So in short I'd argue the Chapman deal significantly increases Lucroy's value for a team where the catcher is weak offensively. -
Clint Coulter - Why is he playing so poorly at High A?
igor67 replied to Bombers's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
Is it possible that repeating A+ put him in a mental funk. Yes, is it the most likely? I don't know. Given that he is repeating and doing worse, there seems little plausible reason to suspect that more repeating of the level will help him at this point. Ultimately its not about punishing him or moralizing about his character what gives the team the best chance to see him develop is the only question that's important. He's old enough that a complete washout isn't that far off(or atleast a departure from the organization), but young enough if he started hitting like he used to he could get back on track. Barring info we are not privy too (mental health, family issues, injury...), promoting him and seeing what happens strikes me as the best shot at getting some value back. -
Aside from small sample I'd hate to put too much narrative on that since Gatewood has been improving throughout the year which started well before moving to first.
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Noche on the other hand looks like a genius with Segovia going 3-3 in the game 1
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It's probably wiser to focus on a smaller number of deals and getting good returns rather then firesaling everyone when you don't have to. BP had a study at GM trades a few years ago and there definitely appeared to be diminishing returns on trades for the most active GMs.
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More firepower for the TRats line-up!
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Maybe if you jump him right now, but before Erceg gets too far he needs to spend enough time at a level for the league to try and get a scouting report on him to see if he can make some adjustments instead of just blitz through pitchers.
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He also might be more valuable in the offseason, a little less contract length and a team trading for him might view him more a cheaper option then whatever megadeals are going on in the offseason. On the PED side I think it is a lot closer to being a nonissue then an issue at this point. A number of other offenders have been traded since. Also if he goes the entire year more or less healthy that addresses some of those issues.
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I'm skeptical that Wren's performance is any different then the other good AAA seasons that have made us look at the random other assortment of players, but definitely he deserves his own clean shot at getting somewhere if none of the other options show any signs of life.