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homer

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Everything posted by homer

  1. New study suggests herd immunity can be reached at 10 - 20%. Theory is that the vulnerable population "declines causing the rate at which new infections occur to slow down". Odd way of saying old people die first but still... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160762v1 A few things: 1) this is good but warrants further study. I think they are missing a lot of variables but it definitely should be considered in the scientific debate. 2) getting to 10 - 20% (or whatever the number is) should not really be a "goal" as that is bad. 3) You can get higher than 20%. That's not a magic number. Bergamo, Italy was much higher I believe. 3) if you get to that number too quickly it will put major strain on the healthcare system (see New York, Houston, Phoenix). I don't think the ramifcations for that have been seriously studied yet. 4) Even when you get to threshold it's not like the disease just disappears. There's a slow decline back down the curve. At any rate, I hope this study proves correct. I think the true test will be this fall when the second wave is supposedly going to hit.
  2. They should have gone with Washington Football Team to be Named Later.
  3. Oh come on, man. What about Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia? I wouldn't dismiss it, migrant workers go there too. They go everywhere, really, as far north as NJ to follow harvest patterns. A lot of these people can't quarantine and have no other options for income. After entering through CA they get on buses and travel for days, they don't get a lot of sleep and perform hard labor in sometimes brutal conditions. It's not the kind of thing ideal for your immune system. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-29/every-single-worker-has-covid-at-one-u-s-farm-on-eve-of-harvest https://calmatters.org/commentary/my-turn/2020/06/we-have-to-get-serious-about-protecting-california-farmworkers-during-covid-19/ https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/california/nearly-190-farmworkers-contract-virus-in-southern-california/2321275/ And of course, when they aren't at work, they're still going other places. Without evidence, this just reeks of placing blame elsewhere. Correlation does not equal causation.
  4. Oh come on, man. What about Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia?
  5. Ah, I see. Yes, I agree.
  6. I think 2nd wave is yet to come if it happens. They've always talked about late Oct/Nov for that.
  7. Fingers crossed but it looks like we may have peaked in Arizona. ICU and Inpatient beds have dipped the last four or five days. Deaths will most likely still be high for a little while since that's a lagging indicator but they look to be on the downslope.
  8. I love the cinematography and set design. It's really a beautifully shot show. It's not without flaws as you mentioned (too dialog heavy IMO) but I enjoy it.
  9. Reindeer herders in Finland are coating their antlers with florescent paint to reduce collisions with cars. The result is very metal: https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/02/20/280220511/these-reindeer-really-do-glow-and-its-for-their-own-good
  10. I think indoors in a crowd with windows closed and AC on might turn out to be the worst place to be regardless of what you have on your face. Not sure social distancing matters either in that case.
  11. If Netflix would drop shows one week at a time instead of all at once they could have had some serious appointment viewing the last few years. Stranger Things, Tiger King, Ozark just to name a few. Not sure why they don't as that seems to be a great way to build buzz.
  12. We watched Palm Springs last night. I enjoyed it The Old Guard was fine for a lazy Sunday afternoon. Kind of on the level of John Wick.
  13. Phoenix and Chicago highway drivers are quite similar
  14. It's the "I was sick over Thanksgiving" stories that should be dismissed. There were cases here in very late Dec/January but the spread was probably limited at that point. Odds are most people still had the regular ole flu in February.
  15. This twitter outage is kind of funny. All the blue checks are simply re-tweeting their favorite tweets from years past.
  16. Jimbo might be talking about liability. So if a kid runs through a glass door at your office sort of thing.
  17. It doesn't change the case count. It would change the %positive rate. Still a problem of course.
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