Never Outhustled
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Everything posted by Never Outhustled
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Gerut's platoon partner possibilities
Never Outhustled replied to nate82's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I think the thread premise is right. Cameron is about 2 WAR better than any of the pitchers we could sign for $10 million, but Cameron would only require a 1 year deal, whereas the pitcher would be longterm Suppan like death sentences. Hart could be traded for a starting pitcher with similar WAR potential and salary, such as John Maine. or Brandon McCarthy. -
I wish the Brewers would get this wrapped up. Peterson would be the best hire the organization has made since Jack Z. I hope money isn't the sticking point, like it was when they lost Mike Maddux. Money should be a non-factor considering we pay our manager so little.
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I agree completely. The worst part of signing FA pitchers like Washurn isn't just the fact that they'll produce less wins than Cameron next year, its that they'll require a multi-year deal. The probability that we can get Cameron on a 1 year deal makes re-signing him a no-brainer in my book.
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Gerut's platoon partner possibilities
Never Outhustled replied to nate82's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
A sleeper pick of mine is Justin Maxwell. He's been held back by injuries in the past, and he Ks alot, but he's big, strong, fast, and productive when healthy. Washington has a slew of OFs, so we might be able to pick him up in a small trade, and IMO he has big upside. -
When has this strategy worked for Boston? This past season, they wasted huge money with wretched returns. They didn't make their move this year until they jettisoned all the starters they signed in the offseason, as they were holding them back. The strategy works in theory, but the problem is these injured, supposedly cheap starters still cost way too much.
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I doubt the Braves could find anyone sucker enough to take ove Lowes contract, and they certainly won't get anything in return. As Endaround stated, Jones will likely be moved to 1st in an effort to keep him healthy, just as Seattle did with Branyan. Atlanta has no 3B prospects, and theres no way they get one for Lowe or Kawakami. As for re-signing Laroche, when did he get good, and where is the money gonna come from?
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He's not young, he's expensive, and they need to work within their budget. They have a need for a righthanded hitting 3B. What else do they haave to deal to fill their need? If Vazquez is worth so much in trade, why is he always dealt for so little? If they Braves don't do a deal like this, they will end up short at both a corner IF spot, and at closer. As for McGehee, remember that the Braves are a scouting organization, not a stars organization. They will likely see McGehee as a strong worker and hitter with a short, quick swing. They won't care about his minor league stats. I don't see a cost controlled 3B on the market that rivals what McGehee offers. I realize 1 year of Vazquez is better than 1 year of McGehee by a wide margin, but what what I'm offering is 5 years of McGehee, cost controlled, for 1 year of Vazquez, at $12 million.
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I have to believe that if the Braves keep Hudson, then they'll need to move a salary. The only significant salary coming off the books for the Braves this year is their 2 closers, and one will neeed be resigned, with a raise. If they keep Hudson, I'd think they'd look to deal Vazquez. Vazquez would bring them far nore in return than Hudson. The Braves budget won't be going up, its likely to continue to shrink as their attendance does. I'd rather acquire Vazquez than Hudson (and I really like Hudson) because he's just as effective but far more reliable, and he's the innings eater we need. McGehee for Vazquez fills needs for both teams. Thats a good return for Atlanta when you realize how little Atlanta gave up to get him, and that his no-trade clause and past experiences (bad blood with both Yankees and White Sox) limit his potential suitors.
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I'd love to have him, and his injury he recovered from this past season is of no concern to me, as it was TJ surgery. He has a chance to be more WAR next year than our entire rotation was this year.
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Hart for Kenshin Kawakami
Never Outhustled replied to Matt Breen's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I agree with TheCew07, I think we can find better than a 30 something with a 2 year deal for sizable money and mediocre projectability. I assume Rick Peterson will be named all around pitching guru soon. Let him pick the pitchers, he's done it before. Let him find scrap heap steals like he did with John Maine and Oliver Perez, and let him re-unite with some of his past pitchers that he believes he can get back on track. I also don't believe the Braves would have an interest in Hart anymore. Since they were interested in him last offseason, Matt Diaz put up an 885 OPS, they acquired Nate McLouth and Ryan Church, Jordan Schafer re-established himself as a bluechip prospect, and Jason Heyward made it all the way to AAA while earning BA's Minor League Player of the Year. Their OF is very strong, they need a right handed hitting 3B. -
Why would we assume Cameron is gone? If they lose a 4.5 WAR player with no worthwhile replacement, they might as well deal Fielder now and start building for the future, because 2010 would be shot.
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Verlander was down last year because Hernandez had him throwing sinkers instead of blowing hitters away with his heat. Thats why his velocity and K's were down too, and his walks were up. Throwing sinkers is great for pitchers with plus command and middling velocity, but a terrible fit for the fireballing Verlander. We saw the same thing out of Ben Sheets, when Dave Stewart advised him to throw mostly 2 seamers, which lead to Sheet's worst season. I think you would be happy to know that Peterson is extremely conservative with pitch counts, and would have never let Gollardo get abused like he was last year.
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Chuck Hernandez is the guy that ruined Justin Verlander last year. Detroits pitching really turned around with him out this year.
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I think that might be a little outdated. Isn't Mulder working with Peterson to try to find his former self? Also, didn't Zito work with Peterson this past offseason? Another guy who really needs to re-unite with Peterson is Oliver Perez. While Peterson didn't fix Victor Zambrano in 10 minutes, he did fix Perez that quickly. Suppan for Perez? BTW, Thanks TLB for all the links, fascinating stuff.
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Who pitched well that didn't get regular work this year?
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A guy should only be a garbage inning guy if he's struggling. Otherwise everbody should get regular work.
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9th is the perfect spot for Escobar. He can steal bases from there. Our top 5 hitters should bat in the top 5 spots, and he's not in that discussion.
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I hate that plan, to send down 1 of the top 12 pitchers so we have depth. This is the line of thinking that caused us to suffer through Jorge julio last year. If we kept our top pitchers, that would minimize the need for depth.
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Runs scored is determined by a teams OBA and slugging percentage. The Brewers finished 3rd in Runs Scored this year because they were 3rd in OPS, not because we had a supposed RBI guy in a certain spot in the lineup. The 7th hitter is just as likely to lead off an inning as any other hitter after the 1st inning. Molina is a poor player, and should be playing for about $800 K.
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Pods didn't land us Carlos Lee, our ability to take on Lee's contract did. I could see McGehee landing us a high quality but expensive pitcher, like Javier Vazquez.
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Melvin wants 2 starters
Never Outhustled replied to nate82's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I agree with fleehaw, free agency is something we should avoid. We should not expect to be able to pick up a pitcher coming off injury cheap. Last offseason, a 41 year old John Smoltz, after missing the last 3rd of the 2008 season with a shoulder injury so severe that he wouldn't be ready for the start of the 2009 season, got $5.5 million guaranteed. If thats what Smoltz got, Bedard, Webb, and others will get even more. Those won't be wise investments. -
I think your over estimating how much baseball people base evaluations on minor league stats. Most scout and look for tools. We picked McGehee up because of his batspeed, not his minor league resume, and then he went out and had a very strong season. A number of teams need a right-handed hitting 3B, including teams with excess starting pitching, like Atlanta and the White Sox. I think we land a talented pitcher for McGehee. Matt Joyce, similar to McGehee in the fact that he wasn't a top prospect through the minor but then hit 17 homers in limited ABs as a rookie, was traded for Edwin Jackson last offseason.
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Where did you come up with this equation? Those numbers don't come close to anything I've ever seen. Every 100 Ks cost 1 run. 20 points of OPS is worth far more than 1 run. Edit: Nevermind, I see you've edited while I was typing. Thanks.
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That plan would fit if we had starting pitching, but we don't, so position player depth is a luxory we can not afford. We can likely snag a nice starting pitcher for McGehee, and thats something we need to act on. Take care of the stating pitching 1st, if we need to add a position player during the season, we can do that then, through trade, just as we did very well the last 2 years with Durham and Lopez. Its far easier to add stopgap position players during the season than it is to add a starting pitcher.
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If he got 500 ABs, He'd have about 100 more Ks than the other 3Bs, which would cause an adjustment factor of 1 run off the teams total runs scored for the entire season. That isn't even worth mentioning. Gamel has a smooth, short swing. He likely end up being a contact hitter. If he ends up like Cameron or Branyan or Ryan Howard, thats fine too. The Brewers finished 3rd in the NL in Ks, but still finished 3rd in Runs Scored, because we were 3rd in OPS. the teams that finished higher in Runs Scored were 1 and 2 in OPS. Colorado finished 2nd in both Runs Scored and Ks. The teams that K'd the least were in the bottom half in Runs Scored.