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JohnBriggs12

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Everything posted by JohnBriggs12

  1. JohnBriggs12
    Adam McCalvy reported that Mitch Stetter had been outrighted to Nashville. This is certainly not surprising. It will be interesting to see if Brewers offer him a AAA contract or if he'll look elsewhere.
  2. JohnBriggs12
    On a team with no Fielder and only Green, Morgan and occasionally Kottaras batting LH, that is a concern. I'd pass on LaRoche. He fanned 172 times in 2010. Gamel is not too dissimilar to LaRoche as a hitter, and he should be able to produce similar numbers with maybe 40 fewer K's. Alex Rios hit .284/.334/.457 in 2010 but fell into a funk he couldn't get out of last year though he did hit .307/.341/.533 in September so perhaps he figured something out.. If the Sox agreed to pick up half his salary for each of his contract's remaining 3 yrs, he might be someone to consider if you decided to deal Hart. He's not a bad CF and he can also play RF. Jason Kubel fell off significantly also last year. He likely won't command anything huge as a FA. He's another guy you could stick in RF at least against RHP if you decided to deal Hart. In fact, a Kubel/Reed Johnson platoon in RF might be pretty effective.
  3. JohnBriggs12
    You are absolutely right. The Brewers won the division not because of their starting pitching but largely because of the bullpen in the 2nd half. The Brewers were 49-43 at the break without K-Rod and Saito. Loe had 7 losses in relief to that point in what would become K-Rod's role and Estrada had 5 losses in relief in what would become Saito's role. Saito and K-Rod lost 1 game total over the next 70 games in which the Brewers went 47-23. Without Axford, they might have been buried by the break Axford has value, but they have lots of guys that have trade value: Hart, Weeks, Wolf, Greinke, Marcum just to name a few. They have no replacement for Axford and he's still cheap. Dealing him makes no sense.
  4. JohnBriggs12
    I don't necessarily look at it as a hard fast rule but Lackey is a lesson the Brewers need to heed regarding Greinke. Lackey's peak year was 2007 when he posted an ERA of 3.01. The next two years with the Angels he missed 15 starts and his ERA rose to 3.75 and 3.83, good, but not really special. Greinke's peak and subsequent dropoff has been more dramatic. From 2.17 in 09 to 4.17 and 3.83 the next two. Those are obvious red flags. Farm raising pitching is the preferred way. Occasionally you may need to add a vet to the mix via trade or shorter term (3 yrs or less) deal, but the risk of injury is just too great with pitching.
  5. JohnBriggs12
    I could be mistaken but I'm pretty sure he was a starter in 09 and parts of 2010 as well but he's been injured a few times. I wouldn't mind having him but Marcum is definitely overpaying and Wolf might be as well. Marcum wouldn't be overpaying. You are getting a switch hitting middle infielder (who could also play 3B and CF) who hit .296, stole 40 bases, in his prime who you'd control for 3 more seasons.. Those guys do not grow on trees. Not only that you'd be getting roughly $4 million ($7 million in the case of Wolf) of salary relief. I'd do that deal in a second. But I doubt the Marlins would.
  6. JohnBriggs12
    It was a little disconcerting to read Ash commenting on Parra and Stetter as if they are in the plans for next season. Are they seriously considering offering either of these two arbitration? I know the argument you can't have enough pitching but how long do you keep trotting out guys who haven't been effective in years? Move on already. Neither of those two have a prayer of getting a major league deal on the open market. Why give either of them one, much less one that's above minimum wage?
  7. JohnBriggs12
    Just for fun: 1B Gamel 2B Green SS Reyes 3B Aramis Ramirez LF Braun CF Fowler RF Hart C Lucroy Weeks, Morgan, McGehee, Marcum and Fiers are sent in a blockbuster 10 player deal to the Rockies for Dexter Fowler, Juan Nicasio, Matt Belisle, Josh Roenicke, and Chad Bettis Reyes and Ramirez are signed as FA with the money saved via the departures of Fielder, Weeks and Marcum. Morgan and McGee are wash with Belisle and Fowler salary wise. Real prizes for the Brewes are Nicasio and Bettis. Roenicke is thrown in as obvious nepotism play. Belisle is key to bolster bullpen. From Rox perspective, the prize is Weeks and they get a veteran to stabilize a young rotation. Remember, this is just for fun as nobody really knows. Lineup would be: Reyes, Fowler, Braun, Gamel, Ramirez, Hart, Green, Lucroy, Pitcher.
  8. JohnBriggs12
    Thanks TLB. I edited the original post. Actually Maysonet played a lot in ST last year. He had as many AB's as Betancourt (50). He only hit .240 but I recall Uecker having some nice things to say about him.
  9. JohnBriggs12
    Betancourt produced 119 runs at SS. He scored 51 and drove in 68. That's about average for the position. There's a chance but no guaranty Green will vastly outproduce McGehee at 3B. But even if Green posts solid numbers, it's not safe to assume there won't be a spot in the lineup where one guy has an unexpectedly bad season. Most teams do every year. A hitter of Fielder's caliber had more effect on the lineup than you give him credit for. Fielder reached base 287 times. Personally, to me he was the league MVP, not Braun. Gamel could hit .285 and hit 25 HR, but he's not going to stress the opposing pitcher or affect managerial decision making the way Fielder did. What separated the Brewers in 2011 was that their 3 and 4 hitters had an edge on everyone else they played. While having one great player in a lineup is better than none, it doesn't separate you from the pack like having 2 MVP candidates does.
  10. JohnBriggs12
    MLB traderumors reporting that Josh Wilson and Mark DiFelice were outrighted to AAA. No surprise there. Edwin Maysonet was signed to a new AAA contract with an invite to spring training. By middle infield standards, Maysonet's season at Nashville of .290/.347/.386, is certainly worthy of a longshot chance to make roster in utility role.
  11. JohnBriggs12
    Branyan? At 36? Coming off a year where he fanned 41 times in 127 AB's (all but 11 vs. RHP) which even by his standards is bad. Are you serious? Branyan was never an everyday player in his prime. He's well past it now. Loney is at least a starting caliber first baseman, in the same category perhaps as Overbay in his prime and he's likely to flash more power in Miller Park. It makes better financial sense to give Gamel a shot though. If he fails big time, then you can always make a move for a Loney type near the deadline with the hopes to extend him. It would also take a deal to get Loney. If you are really convinced you need somebody other than Gamel, you might take a look at cheaper FA like a Doumit or a Casey Kotchman who finally showed some of his promise last year.
  12. JohnBriggs12
    Knowing you have to unload a guy diminishes his trade value. Trading Wolf and Marcum frees up $16-17 million for 2012. Heck I'd deal Greinke too if the right offer came along. Oswalt wouldn't be the only option. There's other free agents that would be within reach and there's the potential for return in a deal for a younger, cheaper guy who can be controlled past 2012. If I had to guess, Oswalt ends up in Chicago as Theo's first big signing.
  13. JohnBriggs12
    I'd look at Oswalt but only after dealing both Wolf and Marcum.
  14. JohnBriggs12
    Gamel, Green and Barmes instead of Fielder, McGehee and Betancourt and this is a .500 team. Green and Gamel could post very solid seasons and not make up for the loss of a future Hall of Famer. Barmes is a .230 hitter with an OBP under .300 away from Coors in his career. At best he's a wash. Starting pitching alone isn't going to do it. The starting pitching ERA was 6th in the NL. How many teams make the playoffs? Their only chance is a serious upgrade somewhere (like Reyes) or to pay Fielder and get much better value out of their rotation in order to pay for the upgrade.
  15. JohnBriggs12
    The starting pitching upgrades played a part but just as significant were the bullpen upgrades (having Axford a full season, plus the services of Saito and K-Rod in the 2nd half and a healthy Hawkins) Braun and Fielder went from 57 HR and 186 RBI in 2010 to 71 and 231 in 2011. That was just as important too, especially given the fall off of McGehee. There's no way this team without a bona fide MVP candidate in Fielder and lock down late inning reliever like K-Rod is a contender. It might be if Greinke were the guy he was in 2009, but there was no sign of that guy in the postseason or through much of the regular season for that matter. It should matter what the pitchers are making just as it matters what everyone makes. The more of a budget taken by one part of the team, the less is available elsewhere. Marcum was a good value at the roughly $4 million he made last year. He won't be as much a value at the near $7 million he's projected to make in 2012 especially if the playoff version shows up.. Is the Greinke we saw last year really a $13.5 million dollar pitcher? He was only if it made the difference between playoff and no playoffs. He wasn't on performance alone. As for Wolf, when he was signed, by default, he was the number 2 starter. Now he's a 4, maybe a 3. Look, all 3 of these guys will be talked about extensively as the trade deadline approaches if the team isn't in contention which is certainly a realistic possibility. Exploring deals now is doing your due diligence.
  16. JohnBriggs12
    Fukudome is not good enough defensively nor are his OBP skills enough to offset his well below average power playing in a power position. Besides he'll be 35 next season. He's not all that dissimilar to Mark Kotsay. In a sub role for around $1.25 million that's fine, but no way is he a starting corner OF.
  17. JohnBriggs12
    Exactly. They'll be paying in around $38 million to their top 4 starters next year including $16 million to their 3 and 4 starters. That's up about $5 million over 2011. That's too much allocated to starting pitching when they have needs elsewhere (bullpen, SS). Gosh if you're going to do that, trade all 3 of Greinke, Marcum, and Wolf, saving around $30 million, and sign Sabathia. Frankly, I'd like their chances better with a Gallardo, Sabathia, Narveson, Peralta, (fill in the blank from one of the deals) rotation myself.
  18. JohnBriggs12
    We'll see but I think the Brewers like him a lot. He's hit .300 at every level from high A on up, with good plate discipline, good defense in CF and adequate speed. While he lacks HR power, his career .427 SP suggests he has gap power.
  19. JohnBriggs12
    Except for Gary Darling who was fine in game 1 and would have been the ump had it gone to game 7, the umpiring was inconsistent. But that's true all year as there are only a handful of good umpires in the game. Brewer pitchers left hittable balls over the plate to a team with locked in hitters and didn't counter them by backing them off the plate. It's almost as if they were afraid of getting warnings because LaRussa was in the other dugout.
  20. JohnBriggs12
    Al must be reading my posts (page 4 on the 1st basemen thread). Doumit is a good bat. But his nickname is "No-Mitt" Doumit. I was shocked though that his caught stealing % was that good. Brewers have run on him at will. He's considered a poor defensive catcher by most accounts. The platoon idea won't work either. Almost all of his power is from the left side.
  21. JohnBriggs12
    I could envision where Boras told Melvin that if he doesn't get an offer close to his asking price, he'd consider a one year deal knowing the Brewers will offer arbitration anyway and they've agreed on an amount should that come to pass. The market for Fielder could be stronger next year when he won't be 1A to Pujols and it would be much more likely the Cubs would be involved. I don't put any stock one way or the other in Fielder's words. I think he's just a guy who doesn't involve himself in the process. Boras takes his clients to the open market. That's been the constant.
  22. JohnBriggs12
    It doesn't matter who said what, but it's clear the Brewers really like Schafer and he's in their plans. That was clear when they included Cain in the Greinke deal and dealt Komatsu for Hairston. Schafer is 25 now, hardly a kid, and he's been in camp in Arizona for several season. His AAA time has been limited, but we're talking about a contact hitter, with a decent eye at the plate. I think he'd hit well enough playing exclusively against RHP that he's a viable option should they trade Morgan.
  23. JohnBriggs12
    Ideally, they'd have 2 of the 5 rotation spots filled by cheap (not necessarily worse) guys. Wolf and Marcum combined figure to make over $16 million (up from around $13 million this year) next season. That's a huge investment for a 3rd and 4th starter for a small market team. A lot of people argued much of the year that Marcum was a number 2. I think his playoff performance was a reality check. At best he's a 3 (all 3's can pitch like 2's at times). I'm also worried that Greinke is more a 3 than a 2 also, and they are paying him nearly ace money.
  24. JohnBriggs12
    You are dreaming. Take away Prince and K-Rod and this is a .500 team. No, don't extend Greinke either.. Grienke's ERA the last 2 years are 4.17 and 3.83 (essentially the NL equivalent of 4.17 in the AL). He's going to want $90 million over 5-6 years. Those numbers represent more risk than paying Fielder. You drafted 2 pitchers in the top half of round 1 last year so you don't have to take risks like that. If you want to wait and see, it's likely you could parlay Greinke into some decent prospects at the trade deadline. There are 1B out there that aren't bad.. Gamel might turn out to be okay, but nobody is going to give you the presence in the lineup that Fielder provided.
  25. JohnBriggs12
    That doesn't really make sense to me. Why would this have to be hush-hush? Possibly to protect Boras' reputation for always taking his clients to the open market.
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