JohnBriggs12
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Everything posted by JohnBriggs12
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There are only so many innings in ST even with split squad, B games, minor league games etc. in which to get the guys you are counting on ready and the guys you need to evaluate a fair shot. They are holding open the possibility of bringing in Mulder who would be the 30th healthy pitcher in camp. I don't see them bringing in yet another unless a couple guys come up with sore arms. Guys like Wellemeyer are scrambling now.
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Pretty similar numbers wise. I do like that Estrada's trend seems to be in a bit more of an upward direction than Dillard's. Estrada is supposed to have a good change so he could be similar to Villanueva. I would assume he's also got one option left.
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The pitching down there is a mix bag. It includes a lot of veterans that had long AAA and fringe major league (ala guys like former Brewer Horacio Estrada) careers but no longer are in affiliated baseball. It also includes current minor league guys from Rookie ball on up to AAA with most in the category of high A types. It also includes a handful of current/recent major leaguers such as Yusmeiro Petit and a few others. So endarounds contention that it's the equivalent of wood bat college leagues is pretty far off. You want a better read on the pitching? Look what other hitters did. Gamel hit .211/.268/.447 in very few AB's (38). Heether hit .214/.389/.371 in 70 AB. Katin hit .246/.373/.431. Former Twin Lew Ford hit .262/.364/.348. Current Cub OF Sam Fuld hit .241/.313/.448. Current Brave IF Martin Prado hit .271/.286/.333. Current Pirate and former Cub Ronny Cedeno hit .300/.327/.553 in a fairly significant number of ABs. Current Cub utility If Andres Blanco hit .291/.353/.430. Henry Blanco hit .267/.338/.467. 2009 NL MVP candidate Pablo Sandoval hit .395/.425/.605 in 81 ABs. Toronto AAA 1B Brian Dopriak who hit .330 in AAA last year, hit .270/.358/.474. One time All Star Richard Hidalgo (remember him) hit .306/.429/.480. Current D-Back OF Gerardo Parra hit .333/.422/.375. So endaround can dismiss the pitching quality all he wants. The fact is the only current major leaguer that put up numbers that equate to what Escobar put up was Pablo Sandoval, a .330 hitter in the NL last year.
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Reds Sign Orlando Cabrera, 1yr/$3MM
JohnBriggs12 replied to crewcrazy's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
"That's like judging a pitcher based on wins. Last time I looked, all pitchers with 300 wins are in the Hall of Fame. Producing runs consistently over time (like winning games for pitchers) isn't due to luck. For a guy who doesn't hit a lot of HR, or normally hit in an RBI spot in the order, Cabrera has driven in a lot of runs over time. Cabrera has 377 plate appearances in his career with a man on 3rd and less than 2 outs. In those 377 appearances, Cabrera has hit .362/339/.481, with 77 sacrifice flies, and just 18 K's. That is great situational hitting and not luck. -
Holliman's best bet is the Northern League or similar indy league with experienced players. He fits perfectly the profile of a lot of Northern League pitchers, some of whom pitch their way back into affiliated ball. Many were fairly high round picks or guys with some lower level success that stalled out in AA around age 25 or 26 (ie: Josh Wahpepah, now with the Kansas City T-Bones).
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The jury is still out on whether the Brewers are an "annual contender". They certainly were in 2007 and 2008. It's quite possible they can be in 2010 and 2011. They certainly haven't been as removed from contention as say the Rangers were in the 3 seasons leading up to Teixeira's departure when the Rangers were sub .500 and double digits out of first place each year. What happens this year and next could affect Fielder's and the Brewer's thinking. Surely if the Brewers don't contend, he'll look elsewhere and if you are the Brewers you think that you haven't won with him so it's not as great a loss. But if the Brewers contend and make another playoff appearance in the next 2 seasons, and Fielder puts up numbers comparable to 2009, then you're talking about Fielder in terms of Pujols and Mauer status. While either of those guys may still leave, the consensus is both want to stay with their current teams and why not? Both the Cards and Twins contend frequently if not annually. What's also working in the Brewer favor is that the market for Fielder may not be what it was for Teixeira either. Howard may be available at the same time Fielder is and it's already noted the Yankees with Teixeira, and the Cardinals with Pujols/Holliday are two perennial contenders who are not likely in the Fielder bidding.
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I'd hold on to Weeks until we're certain of Fielder's situation. If they end up dealing Fielder in 2011, that will open a spot for either Gamel or Lawrie and leave plenty in the budget to keep Weeks if they want to. If they did manage to lock up Fielder, then look to trade Weeks. Weeks is still very affordable and possesses much more upside than does Hart. Hart doesn't have a ton of trade value right now and that doesn't figure to change. He may have to be packaged with an extra arm at some point.
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Reds Sign Orlando Cabrera, 1yr/$3MM
JohnBriggs12 replied to crewcrazy's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The offensive difference between Cabrera and Janish is considerable. Cabrera is a run producer. He has more RBI over the last 3 seasons than Mike Cameron, including last year when he had 77, which would have been 3rd on the Brewers. Janish had just 16 in over 250 AB's. Janish can now be used as late inning defensive replacement. This is a great deal for the Reds. They got a starting SS and upgrade to their lineup for barely more than the Brewers are paying their utility infielder. -
Gord Ash: Edmonds is likely to be a pinch hitter and get some time at first base as well. Oh really Gord? Are you aware that Edmonds is not an experienced pinch hitter He has 79 PH AB's in 16 seasons. That's an average of 5 per season. That's less than Gerut and way less than Counsell. Given his long swing and infamiliarity with that role, he likely wouldn't get enough ABs to stay sharp. If they are thinking of him as a Matt Stairs type, they need to think again. As for 1st base, are you serious? Innings played at first base by anyone not named Fielder in 2009: Zero. I wouldn't be tempted ever to take Fielder out in favor of Edmond s myself. Personally, I don't think Edmonds will hit enough to earn playing time if he makes the team. So if he makes the team that's taking a spot away from a younger player. But if he were to prove me wrong and hit like the Edmonds of old, then he has to be platooned with Hart in RF. That makes his LH bat valuable as a 2nd one in the lineup. They have LH bats off the bench. He's not needed there.
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You're not alone in thinking the Edmonds signing is weird. I doubt it's a case where Hart is in a strict platoon though. One reasonable explanation for the Edmonds signing is that he's being brought in to battle Gerut for the 4th OF spot. Edmonds has no value as the 5th OF. His swing is long and not conducive to being productive unless he's seeing regular AB's. Why you'd want a 40 year old that hasn't played in 2 years, and has lost his range in CF as your 4th OF getting 350 or so AB's is beyond my comprehension. I guess the price is right. Maybe they want to save a little money by cutting Gerut if he's not swinging the bat well in Arizona. Maybe they truly believe or fear Gomez could benefit by playing in Nashville and they want as many options as possible for CF. My best guess (and it's purely a guess as it could be Melvin's just lost his mind) is that they have a tentative deal in place for Hart but the trading partner wants to do more scouting of Corey this spring. This extra time also give the Brewers time to assess the rotation situation as a deal of Hart likely involves a pitcher too. If that's the case, then well Edmonds makes sense. He's cheap and has been a productive player in the past. But he would need a platoon partner too if Hart were dealt.
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I don't think anything Rickie Weeks does is really a surprise even though he hasn't yet. Talent-wise, he's right there with Braun and Fielder. What it will take for him to put together a season that matches his talent is the question. Those numbers are a little extreme though. My surprise is Escobar of course. I think he'll hit .300, steal 35 bases, score 100 runs and slug over .400 and walk away with ROY award. Of course I won't be surprised but most of you will. My pitching surprise will be Claudio Vargas.
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I don't think any team is going to take on Carmona and it's not just because of salary. His numbers the last 2 seasons have been ugly even by 09 Brewer rotation standards.
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What makes you think my eyes aren't still rolling? I didn't like the idea when you proposed it and I like it less now.
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Edmonds is done and Melvin is really reaching. It's the Trot Nixon signing all over again. All he's going to do is take away spring AB's from guys that will actually matter later on.
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Brewers claim IF Joe Inglett, DFA Chris Smith
JohnBriggs12 replied to battlekow's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I just don't understand why they are so down on Iribarren that they'd give up on him (remember Hernan is out of options) to keep virtually the same guy who's 6-7 years older. Inglett was in AA at the Iribarren's current age. He's no more versatile than Iribarren either, having played no more in the OF than Iribarren. Iribarren will be lost when he's exposed to waivers. It just makes no sense to just let him go, when he'd be a minimum wage bench option for 3 more years. -
Brewers claim IF Joe Inglett, DFA Chris Smith
JohnBriggs12 replied to battlekow's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I'm sorry but this move makes zero sense. Not that Inglett is a bad player, but with Gerut, Counsell, Iribarren, Gamel, Oeltjen, Stern, and Schafer all in camp, were the Brewer really hurting for lefthanded bench bats? -
I'd like to see the Brewers hold firm and take this one to a hearing. The Brewers number represents a $900,000 raise for a guy who did little last year. No way is Hart worth a nearly 50% raise and he wouldn't get it. It's worrying me that the Brewers in an effort to have "core" group together, hold on to pieces of that core that aren't cornerstone players. The only two that are, are Fielder and Braun, and possibly Weeks if ever reached his potential. I can understand them being fooled into thinking Hardy was, but not Hart. He's not a terrible player, but he's expendable and always has been.
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How does Parra compare to Morrow
JohnBriggs12 replied to Hate those Rodents's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
It's not a question on whether it's too early to give up on Parra. If there were a couple stud young guys ready, I'd give up on him in a heartbeat. But that's not the case, so he likely gets another chance because he's still cheap and has shown he has physical ability. The clock's definitely ticking on him though. He's not going to be able to maintain a rotation spot if he's plugging along with a 6+ ERA a third of the way into the season again. I don't see them stretching their budget further on Washburn at this point. Would I prefer Washburn in a rotation over Parra? Absolutely. But I think the signing of Davis precludes them signing anyone much less another lefty. -
Teams will be calling Padres in July for either Correia or Garland. Smart move for them. If Young bounces back, that's not a bad rotation in San Diego. I like Clayton Richard and their other young guys too in addition to Young, Correia and Garland.
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I thought the same thing. Not only are his minor league stats impressive, but last year he was Venezuelan Winter League MVP having shattered the RBI record for that league with 67. He wasn't quite as impressive down there this year but posted a solid .851 OPS. My guess is defensively, he can't catch a cold anywhere else but 1B despite having played elsewhere. But you have to wonder what the Giants are thinking. It's not like they have an All Star there either. Don't know if the Brewers would go for him as a RH bench bat. He's pretty young for that role.
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He figures to be platooning with Fukudome which will give the Cubs an all right handed lineup vs. the Brewer's lefty dominated rotation. With an all righty lineup facing them, it would behoove the Brewers to have their long man be right handed, so in the event of a short start by a lefty, he'd have an advantage.
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If he batted right handed, he'd be a good fit. But really don't the Brewers have the same player only 7 years younger in Hernan Iribarren? The guy that was DFA'd recently that would interest me is Jesus Guzman (Giants). He's only 25, and is coming off a AAA year of .321/.379/.507. He's played all over the infield, mostly 3B but his calling card is his bat.
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I don't think Gamel will be on the bench and he doesn't have a starting job in Milwaukee unless someone plays his way out of one in ST or gets hurt. I see Gamel in Nashville to start the season.
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Do we have a back up plan in the OF?
JohnBriggs12 replied to VegasBrewerFan's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I don't think so. The Brewers have a stockpile of guys they could use in CF if Gomez fails. It's starts of course with Gerut. Iribarren has played some CF in the minors and was playing there in winter ball. On AAA contracts they have Trent Oeltjen who's minor league numbers (like Iribarren's) suggest he could hit major league pitching, and Norris Hopper who for half a season in 2007 was really a pretty good offensive top of the order guy for the Reds. Behind them are 2 of the Brewers most highly rated prospects, Lorenzo Cain and Logan Schafer, neither of whom for which it's out of the realm of possibility could end up a factor before it's done in 2010. If Hart falls flat in RF, or gets injured, then it's a little trickier. I think they need to give Gamel some time in RF this spring. But unless he shows he's regained his stroke in Nashville, he wouldn't be my first option. Gerut of course can play RF, but if he were to take over it would be at the expense of CF depth and I think they'd want a platoon partner for him and that's the guy that's missing right now on their roster. I've thrown out names like Gomes, Thames and Quinlan (who's probably the cheapest of the 3) that are still out there. -
still looking for pitching
JohnBriggs12 replied to prophet's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
He was horrible last year even after he came back from his DL stint when he was said to be fully recovered. In his 7 starts from August 27th on, covering 33 1/3 innings, he allowed 48 hits, 31 earned runs and 11 walks. That's an 8.45 ERA Amazingly, he did make a turn around in one stat. He allowed just HR during that time. Bush is average when he's at his best. When he's not, he's well below average and it's not an unreasonable scenario for him to be cut to save most of his salary considering they are now $5 million over budget. Especially when you consider he's a FA after this season.