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JohnBriggs12

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Everything posted by JohnBriggs12

  1. JohnBriggs12
    I take it as there is confidence they'll be able to move Santana.
  2. JohnBriggs12
    Broxton has an option. Stick him in AAA as insurance/depth. Walker isn't going to cost much more than $6 million AAV over 2 years.
  3. JohnBriggs12
    Villar's shortcomings are often not evident in box scores or stats.
  4. JohnBriggs12
    All the speculation is just that. There's 5 weeks before the season starts, and I'd put the probability that Santana is moved at greater than 50-50.
  5. JohnBriggs12
    If Braun to 1B is a mirage, where does he play? You don't acquire Yelich to play him out of position in RF, and while I suppose Braun could play in RF, he's not the ideal solution there, either. I agree that there are likely several personnel moves this team has left to make, because the makeup of the roster doesn't make a lot of sense. I would imagine Santana, Broxton and one of Thames/Aguiar are all on the trade block, which opens up 1B for Braun to be part of a platoon there, with the rest of Braun's starts coming in LF, giving Yelich breathers or kicking Yelich to CF to give Cain breathers. I still believe that Phillips will see most of the time in RF. I see the Crew moving Broxton and Aguilar for lottery tickets to keep the farm system going. Yelich, Cain, and Santana end up in the OF with about 125-130 starts each. Phillips gets about 40 starts, most in center to rest Cain. Braun gets 60 starts in the outfield between LF and RF, 60 at 1B, and 5 at DH. Maybe work him in at second or third base and get another 15-20 starts there so folks get a day off (or if Villar slumps). Lots can happen. They didn't invest $80 million for a guy who makes 125 starts. Likewise, they didn't deal their number one prospect for another guy who'll make 130 starts. Cain and Yelich are penciled in for 150 starts each. It will come down to a 3 man rotation for 2 spots, RF and 1B. That's a little over 100 starts each for Santana, Braun and Thames. Braun will pick up a handful in LF. The logjam will be broken at some point by either a trade or injury.
  6. JohnBriggs12
    Amen, though I think a Sogard/Perez platoon might be better than most think there and could open up a way to keep Aguilar around as mostly a PH assuming they jettison Villar completely.
  7. JohnBriggs12
    I'm not worried about starting the year with an extra bat. Counsell should be able to juggle so everyone gets at least 3 starts per week plus PH opportunities. They will be set if an injury pops up, and if an injury pops up around the league or a young player being counted on by a contender struggles, I'm sure Stearns will be on the phone in a flash. For instance, what if Bird gets hurt again in NY, or disaster strikes and they lose Stanton or Judge for significant time. In the former case, Thames would be a perfect fit. In the latter, Santana would be too.
  8. JohnBriggs12
    Baseball-Reference similarity scores rankings for Archer through age 28: 3. Anibal Sanchez 4. Matt Garza 6. Jhoulys Chacin I rest my case. He's no ace.
  9. JohnBriggs12
    Archer's not a TOR guy but trade value is in his contract which is extremely team friendly for a #2 or #3 who should be in his prime. That's going to take a lot more than just Santana. They'd have to include one major league ready starter (Woodruff) and two other very good prospects with high ceilings.
  10. JohnBriggs12
    I think it's virtually certainty that they sign either Cobb or Arrieta. It's just a waiting game. I don't think we'll see a trade for a pitcher. They have solid options for the 5th spot until Nelson returns and it's looking more and more like that may be June. Santana could be traded for a 2B and a prospect or two if he's traded but the fact that the Rays couldn't find a taker for Dickerson says all you want to know about the corner OF market. It's a very weak market.
  11. JohnBriggs12
    I think the DFA of Dickerson and trade of Odorizzi makes it less likely they'll deal Archer, not more. He potentially can still increase his trade value and they lopped off some salary in the other two moves.
  12. JohnBriggs12
    The Rays just DFA'd a guy who was an All Star for them last year to save under $6 million. Says all you want to know about their financial situation. But doesn't mean they will lower their price on Archer. Palacios was pretty good in the Midwest League (320/.362/.544) and held his own in the Florida State League after being promoted. Could turn out he's a decent pickup.
  13. JohnBriggs12
    Walker isn't getting $13.5 million AVA. That's about $4.5 million too much. He'll get around $17 million over 2 years with a $7.5 million option and a $1 million buyout.
  14. JohnBriggs12
    The key guy for Cubs besides health is Lester. He took a big step backward at age 33. The Cubs lost a lot of quality AB's from Jay and their backup catcher spot too.
  15. JohnBriggs12
    The Brewer roster was in a constant state of upheaval the first few years. A lot of guys came and went. Some like Francona were at the end of their careers. He was used almost exclusively as a lefty PH specialist. One move I recall was they added Dick Allen's older brother, Hank Allen. Hammering Hank he was not but was it a coincidence that when he became a Brewer he was given #44? No, I don't think so. I know when I saw #44 stroll to the plate that year and be introduced as "now batting for the Brewers, number 44, Hank.....Allen" there was some mixed emotions. Oh well, it was baseball and I was okay with the Brewers paying homage to the more famous Hank who made his way back anyway.
  16. JohnBriggs12
    I heard in the Chicago media last year that Arrieta's velocity was off due to a slight mechanical issue at the start of 2017. He threw it better in the 2nd half. That could have been due to the monstrous amount of innings he logged in 2015 and 2016 (almost 460 between regular season and postseason). If they can get Arrieta to take a 4 year deal, then I'm not so concerned, but Cobb seems to be the less riskier move.
  17. JohnBriggs12
    I think Matt Albers was signed to be the final add.
  18. JohnBriggs12
    The only thing that's hogwash is suggesting that a lineup with that many players 26 or under has somehow plateau'ed. It's ridiculous. Way to ignore Heyward, too. And the growing pains for Schwarber are a pretty big deal considering he's got Prince Fielder like hitting pedigree. Heyward's been bad offensively for 2 years. Career-wise he's got a .756 OPS and a .412 SP. Those are well below the standard for corner OF. I'm not saying the Cubs lineup is bad, but I'd give the Dodgers, Nationals and Rockies a slight edge not to mention the Brewers who've made the most significant offensive moves of any team in the NL. I notice you don't even mention they no longer have John Jay and his .374 OBP. Jay was a key cog in their lineup getting deep in counts. His replacement? Looks to be Peter Bourjos who hasn't posted a .700 OPS since 2013 and has a career .298 OBP.
  19. JohnBriggs12
    Nice post. I said they "could". At least have the courtesy to read the post if you're going to call someone crazy. They have an elite roster and you're being extremely complacent if you think the growing pains so many of their talented young players had last year are going to continue. Nobody would EVER predict a team to win 110, but it's within reach for a group with that much talent. They had one player who could be classified as having "growing pains" and that was Schawber. Russell is what he is, a fine defensive SS with some power but he's also a ,240 hitter in a large sample of ABs. Baez is a flashy defender with big time power and prone to strikeouts. He's had his best season by far last year. How is that growing pains? Bryant also boasted his best career .OPS. This perception that they had a bunch of hitters underperforming is pure hogwash.
  20. JohnBriggs12
    Let's not forget in regards to the Cubs that while their lineup is still relatively young, they don't have any prospects ready to come up and make the type of impact that say Ian Happ made last year. They are pretty tapped out at the upper levels. And some of their youngish players have plateaued like Russell. If they have even a normal amount of injuries, they aren't nearly as formidable.
  21. JohnBriggs12
    I agree with trying to get the Wild Card. I don't agree that the Cubs' offense is pedestrian after Bryant/Rizzo. A lot of guys had down years, and regression to the mean is in their favor in a big way. Plus they have Quintana, Chatwood, and Darvish for a full season, instead of having Quintana for just half a season. They're going to be a nightmare. I'm fine with buying low, but make sure the future is your priority. The Yelich trade is fine. Signing Cain is okay. But don't be too stubborn to punt on the season if you muddle through the first 3 months. I don't buy that a lot of Cub hitters had down years last year. Russell's a career .240 hitter and his career OPS is .719. Last year he was right on those numbers. He gets a lot of love as a top shortstop but he's really never been a great hitter. Heyward had a significantly better offensive year than the year before and it was still bad for a corner OF. Peter Bourjos is not going to come close to John Jay's numbers. Zobrist is at the end of the line. Baez had the best year of his career. We really don't know what Schwarber is. Last year he looked a lot like Adam Dunn. That's who he might well be. Happ hit some HR and got a lot of attention but wasn't anything special. Contreras was about as expected and very good. Bryant's RBI output was down, but he still posted the best OPS of his career. No the Cub hitters as a group didn't have down year. That's a fallacy.
  22. JohnBriggs12
    Last year, nearly everything that could go wrong, did go wrong - and they still won over 90. You can't look at it just as having guys like Quintana, Darvish, and Chatwood instead of average pitchers all year, but as having them instead of a steaming pile of patchwork options reminiscent of the Brewers with guys like Suppan, Wolf, Marcum, Garza, and Lohse way past their prime. The upgrade there is absurdly massive. And nearly every single average young player except Contreras had a really bad year; you can take it to the bank that some of them will be much better this year, even if you don't know which ones. 110 is tough, but the NL is still pretty weak and the Cubs should be dominant. They were dominant in 2016 with less talent than they have now. "Nearly everything that could go wrong, did go wrong"? What? I don't recall one major injury. Kyle Hendricks missed a half dozen starts and Contreras missed about a month but that's it. Their closer didn't blow a save until the last 10 days of the season. They've lost a very productive John Jay and Zobrist turns 37 in May. They are relatively weak in the corner OF spots. Schwarber could bounce back but Happ could be ticketed for the sophomore slump this year. Arcia should prove to be a better overal SS than Russell starting this year. Their new closer, Brandon Morrow is 33, pitched only 43 2/3 innings last year and was on fumes in the playoffs. There's a lot more that could go wrong this year than what actually went wrong last year.
  23. JohnBriggs12
    Nobody was offering Miley a major league deal and it's doubtful any team would be see him as anything other than 7th or 8th in their rotation. I'm sure there's a June 1st or thereabouts opt out if he's still in the minors. My guess is it came down to dollars. Brewers likely offered more if he made the team and more if he didn't. The move makes sense if Brewers want to protect guys like Burnes, Peralta, and Perrin from pitching in Colorado Springs. That also explains the recent signing of Burgos.
  24. JohnBriggs12
    The reason for a trade in July would be to strengthen the rotation to not just get to the playoffs but be in position to win it all. That doesn't mean you unload the farm system. One really good prospect or Santana will get a rental. It doesn't have to be a starter. It could be a top flight bullpen arm.
  25. JohnBriggs12
    Anyone know if Miley shares an agent with anyone else who their interested in? This is akin to bringing back Peralta. He's that bad.
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