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JohnBriggs12

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Everything posted by JohnBriggs12

  1. JohnBriggs12
    Ultimately Lucroy got what he wanted in 2016. He was dealt to a contender. Everything has changed since he expressed frustration over being in a rebuild. He bet on himself and lost. That being said he's still probably worth double what Vogt got and at this point he'd upgrade the roster. But so would Walker and he's still out there too. Strange.
  2. JohnBriggs12
    Roster: Starters (5): Anderson, Davies, Chacin, Guerra, Suter Relievers (8): Knebel, Albers, Barnes, Jeffress, Hader, Logan, Hoover, Miley Position Players (12): Everyday players: Cain, Yelich, Shaw, Arcia. Rotational players in the field: Sogard, Perez, Thames, Santana, Braun, Pina, Bethancourt. Prime PH/DH: Aguilar
  3. JohnBriggs12
    If he gives them 5 quality innings and occasionally a 6th, that would be fine as long as a couple other guys in the rotation can go 6 or 7 with regularity. It's tough on opposing lineups to go from seeing Suter's stuff to upper 90's heat. The Dodgers did pretty well using that formula with all their starters not named Kershaw. Hill didn't get past 5 innings in 15 of his 25 starts. Ryu and Maeda were pretty similar.
  4. JohnBriggs12
    I get that you were trying to get someone to be a little more realistic about his value. However, I think even the Rogers deal is aiming too high. That was a pretty embarrassing trade for the Pirates, not because of what they gave up, but because they gave it up for Jason Rogers, who by almost any measure was a slightly more accomplished minor league player and much better on defense than Aguilar. I think any team that wants really Aguilar knows they can just wait for him to be waived, unless they take him as a tertiary piece in a trade. He's a fit some places. KC to do some platooning with the newly signed Duda? But no not much in return if anything. They may end up having to DFA him like they did with Scooter and hope he doesn't come back to bite them.
  5. JohnBriggs12
    Feliz cost them a playoff berth in 2017 and someone suggests they should unload one of the top closers in the game right now?
  6. JohnBriggs12
    I guess I've been here for some time now. In fact, I'm betting two of Guerra/Suter/Miley/Gallardo are in the opening day rotation with Woodruff starting in the minors. Miley has a 3.79 ERA in 102 starts in the NL. I'm not saying he's good (he was especially awful in 2017) but veterans do rebound. Look at Rich Hill. His one year in Baltimore he had a 7.80 ERA at age 29. At age 33, as a Cleveland reliever, he had a 6.28 ERA and 1.733 WHIP. Personally I think they'll start the year with Guerra and either Suter or Miley in the rotation with the other going to the pen. I don't expect Gallardo to make the team but stranger things have happened and maybe he'll accept an offer to head to AAA. Woodruff and Wilkerson will be groomed to take over by May if needed. If Burnes performs well, I suspect they'll bring him up in June.
  7. JohnBriggs12
    Why leave out Junior Guerra of this discussion? Was 2016 all due to a fluke? Isn't it possible his opening day injury affected him more than we know? Nobody expects Guerra to post a 2.81 ERA over a full season again, but isn't it possible he'll look more like the 2016 version and post an ERA whip combination of 3.80/1.35? As tough a year as he had last year, he wasn't Wily Peralta. His K rate was actually up over 2016. His velocity is reportedly up this spring and he did well in winter ball when he was working on getting his velocity back up primarily. Woodruff had a 3.12 ERA in his first 6 starts, all in a playoff race. He succumbed to the pressure a bit in his last couple but the guy is a tenacious competitor with better than marginal major league stuff. It's possible he got a little arm weary after coming off missing time for the muscle pull. Suter is unique and in baseball, unique is something that can be to his advantage. Whoever starts the season in the 4 and 5 spots will have a very short leash, likely 4 or 5 starts, and if ineffective, will be replaced. Tommy Milone made 3 starts last April. They won one and the bullpen blew another. They didn't stick with him but they didn't finish a game out of the playoffs because Tommy Milone made 3 April starts.
  8. JohnBriggs12
    Perez is a lock. Might be Counsell's favorite player. He's a much better hitter than he showed last year.
  9. JohnBriggs12
    What about Tyler Heineman? He's been a decent hitter in the minors including .281/.342/.407 last year at CS and his caught stealing percentages have been above 40% for his career. Plus he's a switch hitter. He's not technically a "non-roster" invitee but with Vogt down, it would make sense for him to see some action in camp wouldn't it? He was an 8th rounder out of UCLA, so it's not like he has no pedigree. Stearns had him in Houston system when he was there and liked him enough to acquire him. He's not yet 27 so is he any more of a long shot than Pina?
  10. JohnBriggs12
    You're looking at the glass as half empty. Woodruff is the current #61 prospect per BA, and he posted a 3.12 ERA in his first 6 major league starts before faltering in his last 2. Guerra is one season removed from posting a 9-3 record and a 2.81 ERA in 20 starts. He's reportedly gotten most of his velocity back. Brewers were 9-5 in Suter's 14 starts last year. Gallardo and Miley have a lot of mileage on them but they are 32 and 31 respectively so a rebound year to respectable isn't completely out of the question. Wilkerson looked very good in his brief trial last year and has been and outstanding pitcher his entire minor league career. Burnes might be a better prospect than Nelson was 5 years ago. The top 3 guys, Anderson, Davies and Chacin were a combined 42-29 last season. There's a waiting game going on. Arrieta and Cobb are likely hoping for an injury to boost a very soft market for them.
  11. JohnBriggs12
    It maybe too soon to say he should be the starting 2B but I really like what I have seen so far from Dubon. I think he can be an average offensive player with elite like defense. Pairing Dubon with Arcia would be rather fun to watch defensively. I am not sure there would be many hits that would get through Dubon and Arcia. Having two elite defenders up the middle in Dubon and Arcia would be crazy and would help the whole infield defense especially at the corners where you wouldn't need someone with all that much range which means you could focus on more of a bat first 1B and 3B with Arcia and Dubon at SS and 2B. Dubon isn't a good enough hitter to be a regular at this stage. He might not even be the first call up should a middle infielder go down.
  12. JohnBriggs12
    They have to wait out the market for Santana. It's not very strong right now but injuries can change that quickly. As for Aguilar? There's some pretty good 1B out there that haven't found jobs yet: Lind, Duda, Reynolds. At best he'll bring back a lottery ticket low level prospect. Frankly I don't see Santana playing everyday if he's still here. The big reason is his defense. It kind of defeats the purpose to acquire two very good OF defenders and leave your worst holdover defender out there everyday.
  13. JohnBriggs12
    Their top 3 starters going into the season were a combined 42-23 last year with a 3.58 ERA. Among the guys in serious contention for the other two spots are: The 61st overall prospect per BA who posted a 3.28 ERA in his first 6 major league starts before stumbling in his last 2 A lefty who made 14 starts for the Brewers (mostly in a playoff chase). The Brewers won 9 of those 14, including 5 of the last 6 A guy who's in the top 10 Brewer all time list in virtually every pitching category. A guy who is one season removed from pitching well enough to be the opening day starter in 2017. Behind those 4 are other viable options including Wilkerson, Miley, Burnes, etc. I think they can hang in there with that staff until Nelson returns and retain the means to add a quality arm at the deadline or get a boost from Burnes.
  14. JohnBriggs12
    I'd say there's a pretty good chance he signs somewhere this week. But with the way this offseason is dragging along, who knows? It's time for players like Cobb and Lynn to crap or get off the pot. Arrieta too, but with Boras as his agent, who knows what his plan is. Boras might tell him to sit until May, then do some sort of highest bidder auction. It continues to amaze me how willing some players are to surrender their futures to agents. Players need to take control. Analyze where you think you fit in best and direct the agent to make the best possible deal there. The fear of leaving money on the table seems to be way out of whack. i didn't make my career choices strictly on monetary considerations.
  15. JohnBriggs12
    Ah, it wasn't me that said that.
  16. JohnBriggs12
    The breakout relief star this year will be non-other than Nick Ramirez. Not knocking the guys listed but the opportunity might be stronger for a LH relief specialist than it is for the RH relievers, and there's not all that much competition at the higher levels. What he did in his first pro season as a pitcher was remarkable. He could take a huge step forward in his 2nd year and with benches so short these days, he can also be used to PH.
  17. JohnBriggs12
    Can't believe the Villar groupies are handing him the job based on 2 games in February. They must be missing Sogard and Perez' ABs.
  18. JohnBriggs12
    Versatile? He's versatile all right. He's proven he can't play defense at 3B, SS, 2B, or the OF.
  19. JohnBriggs12
    The counter to all the Arrieta's lost velocity talk is Justin Verlander, who experienced significant velocity loss around the same age as Arrieta after logging tons of innings the prior 4-5 seasons. His 2014 was much worse than Arrieta's 2017. A lot of folks thought he was washed up. Arrieta still gets good movement on all his pitches and his fastball upticked slightly in the 2nd half last year. He blamed his velocity loss on a minor delivery issue. All the innings he logged from 2014-2016 probably had a lot to do with it. He's a fanatical fitness guy who understands the mechanics of his delivery. I'd never advocate giving a pitcher a 5-6 year deal in the $25+ million AAV range. For a small market team that's a huge risk. But a front loaded deal with an opt out? Now that's worthy of strong consideration in the case of Arrieta who I think is better than Darvish. I don't think Boras is there yet though, and it's a waiting game.
  20. JohnBriggs12
    "But Jake Arrieta...Jake freaking Arrieta" He did post one of the greatest seasons in the modern game in 2015, and he's 64-29 with an ERA of 2.67 over his last 4 seasons, so yeah, Jake freaking Arrieta. He's been awfully good. I wouldn't pay anything close to Boras' asking price either, but only because of risk inherent with all pitchers, combined with his age, not because Arrieta's not been a premier pitcher and can still be. Boras is undoubtedly pointing to Verlander's apparent slide a few year ago. His velocity was down too.
  21. JohnBriggs12
    4 man bench could be a thread of its own. Make this roster fit a 4 man bench on offense. If Brauns "I'm not playing 1st often" comment is legit? Yikes. Whats the 4-5 starters 7-8 pen makeup. Piggyback stuff on the way? Suter wilkerson split squad day 1... welcome back baseball? Hey it could be Gallardo miley so I'll shut up. 12 position players: Yelich, Cain, Braun, Shaw, Arcia, Sogard, Thames, Pina, Perez, Vogt, Phillips. Last spot to either Santana if he's not traded or Aguilar. Broxton gets optioned but comes up when Phillips needs some regular ABs. They'll basically share a spot with one staying sharp in AAA.
  22. JohnBriggs12
    There was a lot of crap pitching for us last year. Starting and pen. I can see the team being 500... cant see them being considered good though. I can for the following reasons: A full season of Josh Hader Fewer strikeouts by the lineup Better OF defense Chacin is not an insignificant addition to the rotation Junior Guerra is healthy and ready to be the Guerra of 2016 This is Arcia's year to fully blossom and be an All Star Plenty of arm options ready in AAA
  23. JohnBriggs12
    Isn't Walker starting at 2B? Or is that Villar and he's your backup? Because Walker isn't signing here to be a backup. Villar would be starter at 2B, or you can call Walker the starter. Makes no difference really, dollars talk. Walker has no job today, and if the Brewers offer the right contract then "Starting 2B" is semantics. He would know going in he'll get 140 starts somewhere between 2B,1B, and 3B. But sure, you can call him the starter and have Villar on the bench. They had Walker, Sogard, Perez, and Villar on the roster in September in a playoff push. They played 28 games in Sept/Oct. Walker started 15 games at 2B. Perez started 7 all against LHP. Sogard started 5, all when Walker slid over to start at 1B, and Villar started 1, the lone meaningless game in the finale. What on earth has changed since then that would leapfrog Villar over 3 others who did the job down the stretch? If Walker is signed, Villar doesn't make the team as the other two are more versatile and are coming off better years.
  24. JohnBriggs12
    Tigers former owner who recently passed away. I can't think of an owner more massively involved in FA signings in recent memory. Great owner though. I think it is rather irrelevant though. The names being listed are really extreme examples I think all owners can become involved sometimes. Attanasio didn't seem to be involved in the Cain signing nor trading for Yelich. Deep breath everyone. Ilitch was well into his 80's and bidding against himself he signed Prince Fielder when it appeared Prince's market was a bit soft. Ilitch's days on earth were numbered. He didn't outlive Fielder's contract and that's the point. He wanted a championship before he died. Attanasio is 60. He's got a few years.
  25. JohnBriggs12
    Weeks was bad defensively and much of his shortcomings were hidden (no error charged) when his double play relay throws went awry. Scooter is more than adequate defensively. He got caught a couple times in replays with his foot touching prior to the ball getting there, but for the most part, he made all the routine plays and his DP relay throws were as accurate as anyone's. Villar can make the spectacular but boot the routine. That can affect the pitcher. But his bonehead play is not limited to his defense. To put it kindly, he's just not a student of the game in contrast to both Perez and Sogard. Those two as a team posted very good platoon splits last year. They make logical sense unless they bring in Walker at their price.
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