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Everything posted by bjkrautk
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Hart @ leadoff and Weeks batting 5th. Like it or don't like it?
bjkrautk replied to Dnye23's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
In a normal context, I wouldn't like it, since I'd want to maximize OBP at the top of the lineup, and Weeks is simply more productive than Hart in that respect, and the Brewers offense should have enough protection for Fielder that the change isn't necessary. With Braun day-to-day, and McGehee sporting a sub-.600 OPS, I'm okay with it. By the numbers, Hart has actually done a much better job drawing walks than I ever would have given him credit for (he's over the 1 bb : 10 AB threshold that's my normal rule of thumb for plate discipline), such that the on-base difference has been minimal. If Hart says he's not comfortable in the #5 hole in the lineup (and his 3-year splits back that up), it does explain why Casey was allowed to flounder in that spot for so long this year. (It doesn't explain LuCroy batting 8th....but that's a different thread.) Rickie has never been a perfect fit for the leadoff spot, since he has above-average power to go with his on-base skills. If it means that both he and Prince get more meaningful ABs with RISP, and get pitched to in those situations....it should work. -
http://www.nbc.com/parks-...anson-Knows-Food/1339660 In honor of Parks & Recreation receiving an Emmy for Best Comedy, I present to you "Swanson vs. Food." ...and if you can watch that clip and have any clue why Nick Offerman wasn't nominated for best supporting actor in a comedy series, then you must really like "Modern Family."
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"Wins Above Replacement" is a cumulative stat, comparing the player to the mythical "replacement-level" player at the same position. Because it is cumulative, the more a player plays, the greater the positive effect. Take a player with decent offensive numbers, have him not miss a game in seventeen years, with him spending most of that time playing a position where offense is at a premium (particularly in the era when he played)....and the number gets large enough to explain Cal Ripken. Blyleven started 685 games in 22 seasons; Pedro started 409 games in 18 seasons. Jackie Robinson didn't play a single game in the majors until he was 27 or 28 (based on his 'age' following the baseball-reference link above). Comparing WAR across careers is interesting, but to my mind (and I'll be the first to admit that I don't know how it's calculated) the stat has more value on a season-to-season basis, as an indicator of performance relative to a player's positional peers over a fixed length of time. If you're just looking at a 162 game chunk (or even projecting a partial season out to a full 162), it's a far more useful tool in evaluating players than it is in the aggregate....largely for some of the reasons your examples have highlighted.
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WOOT OFF!!!!!!1111@@@@ @@@@!!!!!!!!@!!1111!!!!!!!!! 2
bjkrautk replied to DHonks's topic in Off-Topic Forum
Yet another woot off that I will check frequently, miss the BoC, and not purchase anything from. -
That's part of what makes the no-trade so curious to me. Haudricourt speculates that the Brewers weren't on the no-trade due to the size of the contract when it was signed. Start to filter out the number of teams who could legitimately be buyers: Boston (Papelbon 20/21 Sv.), NYY (Rivera 22/26; I assume the papers would have a field day if they traded him cross-town), TB (Farnsworth 17/19) Detroit (Valverde 24/24), Cleveland (C. Perez, 21/22) Texas (Feliz 18/22), LAA (Walden 20/26) --- Philly (Madson 15/17 - DL; Bastardo 5/5), Atlanta (Kimbrel 28/33) Milwaukee (Axford 23/25), St. Louis (Salas 16/18), Pittsburgh (Hanrahan 26/26), Cincinnati (Cordero 17/22 ...has blown his last 3 SvOpp) SF (Wilson 26/30), Arizona (Putz 21/25 - DL) ...and you're down to 15 teams. Cross off teams with injured or questionable closers, who you'd assume are unwilling to take that kind of risk {LAA, Philly, St. Louis, Arizona}, and that list gets cut down even further. You have to figure that most of what's left are covered in the no-trade clause, so there's just no way that the Mets could get anything approching value for K-Rod. The two teams that I wonder most about are in the NL Central. CoCo has blown his last 3 opportunities, all to teams within the division (2 against Milwaukee, 1 against St. Louis), and has been forced out of the closer role in the past (...that's how we got him). How willing are you to try and make this deal if you're the Reds? I can see the Pirates being one of the no-trade teams, much for the same reasons that the Brewers always used to be. If not, they have an All-Star closer, and a solid bullpen; this is a trade they could have made themselves with relatively little risk.
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I wouldn't be concerned about that. The Mets were not in a position to be trying to create a bidding war. If it got closer to the deadline and other teams balked because of the contract situation then they could have really screwed themselves by trying to hold out for a slightly better package. They probably could have waited and seen if they could get more. I see it more as DM being aggressive saying hey will save you from that contract and them not being able to pass that chance up.Something I didn't know about the K-Rod contract until Haudricourt mentioned it in his blog: the Brewers were not listed as one of the ten teams on his no-trade clause. The Mets couldn't move him to 1/3 of the teams in MLB without providing additional compensation (to waive the no-trade, if you could get him to waive the no-trade); depending on who the other 18 teams were (excluding Milwaukee and the Mets themselves), and how many of those teams would be buyers right away, then you start to understand why this deal looks so good from the Brewers perspective.
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The one thing I don't get about this deal is how much better could DM's offer have been compared to other teams with an established closer? If the rest of his season's salary is being paid by the Mets, either a few teams balked at the risk, or the Crew has someone that the Mets liked more than their alternatives. (Speaking of risk, if he blows a lead in the 8th on the road, and no one pitches the bottom of the 9th, does that count against the 55?) No source, or even education to back a guess, but I kind of hope Katin is one of the PTBNL. He's about as ML ready as he'd ever be, but he's not really in the organization's plans, since he's blocked by Braun & Hart. Not sure if they have an in-house option to replace Beltran for next year, and too tired to look it up.
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Impressions of Roenicke so far (part 1)
bjkrautk replied to adambr2's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think it was Cirillo who pointed out during the broadcasts this weekend (wasn't Sunday -- maybe Sat.) that if Braun were a realistic option to pinch hit late in a game, without having had an AB in nearly a week, he'd be in the batting cage getting warmed up and not sitting on the bench. I don't think Braun was ever a legitimate option to PH. The potential for a short-term, retroactive stint on the DL didn't strenthen the case, either. As for Counsell, he's a slap hitter with remarkable numbers over his career with the bases loaded. Plus, as BUC pointed out, the most important role he had was to make contact and not ground into a double-play; base hit would have been a bonus. -
I can't help but notice that they've picked three games that would all be expected to go up in price through demand-based pricing, as they're games against 2 divisional rivals, and the Phillies (who are also post-season contenders). That said, I will give them a modicum of credit for only including one weekend game in the experiment. Additionally, that Pirates game on a Monday during the last week of September could has to have about as much swing in value as any ticket in the 2nd half. A Brewers losing streak or the Pirates reverting to expectations may adversely affect ticket prices. I'm sure, though, that the Brewers are hoping that the playoff spot will be up for grabs between the two in the last week, sending that price through the roof (or as 'through the roof' as you're likely to find in demand for a Monday night home game).
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Thrilled to have the lead, that Yo is eligible for the win, and that Hawkins pitched a clean 8th inning. My only fear is that Casey's PH homer just bought him another month of starts. (That fear being mitigated both by the inevitability that he was already going to be given another month's worth of starts....and by the hope that he can still salvage the 2nd half of his season.)
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Off the top of my head, the post-1997 World Series Marlins represent the quintessential fire sale. While they did not get rid of every talented player on the team, I think you'd be hard pressed to say they didn't blow up the roster. EDIT: Not to state the obvious, but I think the Bucks shedding the big 3 (Allen, Big Dog, Cassell) nearly a decade ago would be another example. Deals like that don't seem possible in the NBA, since the current CBA handcuffs a team's ability to shed bad contracts. Instead, you see GMs like Hammonds shuffling the deckchairs in hopes of catching lightning in a bottle. In theory, it should free the team up to go after better talent a few years down the line....but in practice, they seem to keep signing as many bad contracts as they trade away.
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Do you think Blake Griffin is a small forward? Because their measurements are almost exactly the same. Height: Griffin - 6'10'' Williams - 6'8.75'' ... Griffin - 18.8 points, 11.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists, .631 TS% Williams - 17.7 points, 7.7 rebounds, .9 assists, .674 TS% So Griffin is a better passer and rebounder and they're pretty much the same scorers though Williams was more efficient. I'm not saying Williams is going to be as good as Griffin but he's incredibly underrated. I'm not much of a follower of the NBA these days, but I did see quite a few of Williams' games in the tournament. By the late '90s (when I still watched), NBA PFs were generally 6-9 or taller; I assume they're at least that height now, if not taller. The rebound differential between Griffin and Williams in college has to be due in part to the height differential. Not to mention, Williams just finished a college season shooting over 50% from behind the 3-point arc. While he can play down low, he clearly has some aptitude out at the wing, and looked more like a pure scorer than a post-up player. To my mind, he would just match up better (offensively and defensively) at the 3 than down on the block; I agree with RoCo.
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Making it a major league contract this early in the season is going to kill his value to the team. They should have done it closer to September, so he'd have less service time this year.
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Surprised by the number of people I didn't actually know were going to be in this film....most notably the actor playing Scott Hatteburg & the team owner.
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Impressions of Roenicke so far (part 1)
bjkrautk replied to adambr2's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
My big issues: 1) Continuing to pitch Kameron Loe like the Angels used to Scot Shields doesn't mean they'll get that kind of performance out of him. (This is mitigated slightly by knowing it's supposed to be Saito in that role, but I don't think he could take the workload any better than Loe has.) I don't even mind semi-regimented roles for your bullpen, but balance out some of the wear-and-tear. The upside to the starters working into (and through) the seventh inning is that you should have a fresher bullpen than most teams....yet we keep on trotting out the same guy. I'd rather see Loe as the guy you bring in mid-inning when you need to induce a ground ball (like Coffey had been used in prior years) than the designated '8th inning guy.' 2) If Casey McGehee isn't hitting, and both Hart and LuCroy are....one of them should be in the #5 spot in the order. 3) Kotsay in cf hasn't hurt us (yet), but he's playing too often for my liking. (Nieves should probably be in AAA right now.) Baserunning doesn't really bother me, nor does the defensive alignments. -
2010 - 37 SB, 17 CS (31.5% CS), 655 Inn. 2011 (to date) - 24 SB, 3 CS (11.1% CS), 296 Inn. http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/30456/type/fielding/jonathan-lucroy By the numbers, teams would also appear to be attempting steals at a slightly higher rate against Lucroy than last year (.74 SB Attempts / 9 Inn in 2010 v. .82 SBA/9 in 2011). That could have as much to do with who has been attempting steals against him than it does his throws, and there's always an element of how well the pitcher holds runners which contributes to those percentages. I put him in the 6 range for this year, in part because of the Nillsson-esque CS% (2012 starting catcher: Henry Blanco!), and partially because of the Randy Wolf -thing.
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Glad to see a few other people mentioning Posey blocking the plate from his knees; that was my first reaction to the injury in the random news and discussion thread. Curious to know if there's footage out there of Posey blocking the plate, other than the injury. I can't remember ever seeing a catcher set up for a throw like that, so I'm wondering if it's something he was taught, or if he just got lazy on that one play. I don't think catching is more dangerous from a collision injury standpoint than playing the middle infield. A catcher rarely has to go airborne in order to make a play in the way that a 2b/ss does to turn a double play with a runner coming in. That's an entire level of vulnerability built-in, and a double-play attempt is far more common than a collision at the plate. The real reason that you move a good-hitting catcher away from behind the plate is that it puts a great deal of stress on the legs / knees to get down in a crouch every game. In-season, that also means that your good hitter only plays ~70-80% of the time.
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Just saw the video of the collision. Weird play. Posey is blocking the plate on his knees, and it looks like his ankle gets rolled in the process. I don't think the injury happens like that if he just fields the throw standing up to block the plate with his shinguards. (It can even go the other way, as anyone who remembers J.J. Hardy putting his foot on wrong after sliding into home can attest.) At the same time, I'm amazed there aren't more concussions from plays at the plate like this.
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The transaction log at the Brewers website didn't make that clear to me, although that would explain why Green was DFA'd on the same day. I think he's primarily there as a player they could afford to lose if forced to take someone off the 40-man. (That, of course, brings up the odd situation of Katin - who's too old to be a prospect, but is maybe hitting too well to pass through waivers on the way back down? I'm assuming he was on the 40-man at some point to avoid being grabbed in the Rule 5 Draft, so that he couldn't go down without clearing waivers? It's been way too long since I looked at the transactions primer...)
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Katin isn't on the 40-man Roster, which is now full after the Herrera waiver claim. The only position players on the 40 man roster who aren't also on the 25-man: Martin Maldonado (C, AA) Eric Farris (2b, AAA) Mat Gamel (1b, AAA) Erick Almonte (15-day DL) Nyjer Morgan (15-day DL) Farris' .270 / .314 OBP / .377 Slg. doesn't exactly warrant a call-up. Gamel does, but I assume that the team wants him to play every day (or there's a service time concern, given that he'll likely take over for Prince next year). The Brewers could make temporary room for another 40-man player by moving Saito to the 60-day DL, (he'd only have to be out until 6/5), but they still expect him back reasonably soon. With Morgan coming off the DL in a matter of days, the F.O. probably decided that the benefit of pulling a prospect out of their routine for a week didn't justify that kind of move...particularly if that meant outrighting / waiving a player to send them back down.
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I still haven't seen Sherlock yet, but it's a BBC production written & produced by Steven Moffat and Mark Gatiss, who met while working on "Doctor Who." (Starting with Series 5 - the one currently airing on PBS - Moffat has made the transition from the best writer on 'Who' to running the show.) They are working on a second season of Sherlock, which should come out in the UK in the fall. Cougar Town is a show that feels like something I should like (from the guy who produced "Scrubs" - plus Abed on "Community" seems to really like it!), but I've seen an episode or two....and can neither relate to or be drawn in by the cast.
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Better said, appreciate any show with Summer Glau in it, for it is not long for this world. (It's my attachment to Firefly that got me to start watching Fillion on Castle. I can't in good conscience tell people not to watch / like it!) Sidenote: Having finally caught-up with the current season of "Doctor Who," and finding that my TiVo recorded some PBS re-airs from last season....that show is good. The only new show from last season that I'm carrying into next season is "Bob's Burgers." I thought 'Mad Love' on CBS had potential (in that I liked everyone on the cast more than I liked the show itself), but not enough other people felt the same way.
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JS-Online has a separate write-up on the story, with more details. http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/122506259.html Apparently, some individuals found out about the location(s) for the Milwaukee ornament giveaways in advance of 7am, and started hoarding. I particularly like the note in this article that the Brewers are selling these statues at the clubhouse store for a fraction of the eBay price. I'm also glad that this story is focused on the Milwaukee side of things, not the 400 ornaments in out-state Wisconsin that have prizes / autographs on them. (Honestly, if I had lived near one of the drop areas, I might have taken the morning off work.)
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More than the boss on the Office, I want to know who they're casting as Tammy Swanson I.

