Ennder

No, I was saying that Suppan's career xFIP and FIP probably aren't that meaningful at this point. If I were just looking at HR/FB I'd probably look at career rates for it since even with age it jumps all over the place but in this case the two are pretty much even, his 3 year average is 11.7% and his career is 11.8%. Not sure what you are getting at here. His career ERA is 4.68 and his career xFIP is 4.65 so at this point I'd guess that xFIP is a pretty good way to measure the quality of his seasons. There isn't a bunch of noise between the two stats like you'll find with a few isolated pitchers. For a single season the HR/FB has such a huge effect on FIP that it just doesn't mean much to me, why would I correct 2 out of 3 high variance stats and completely ignore the 3rd, just makes no sense. Both FIP and xFIP have various flaws and I still think it is useful to always look at ERA as well because if you look at the ERA trend vs the xFIP trend you can figure out the real story usually. BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB% are all skills, just skills that have a pretty narrow range and that are subject to extremely high variance year to year. Imo that is exactly the opposite of how you should look at it. With a large sample you can ignore the context, with a small sample you pretty much have to look at because the data itself is pretty useless without it. This is basically what regression is, it is assuming a big jump outside of the norm isn't going to be sustained. That Chone projection is assuming that Suppan was significantly worse last year and that trend will continue and he will be even worse this year. Looking more closely at the sample I don't really agree with it, I think it is a bad projection. Something between his 3 year average and last season I could see, but not a jump worse than last year.

Is Corey Hart a significantly better hitter than Cabrera though? Cabrera was as good in 2009 as Hart was in 2009 or 2008 or 2006. Cabrera's 2006 and 2007 were almost as good as all of those years for Hart as well and he did his in the AL. So we have a career year for Hart and an off year for Cabrera that is separating them so far, Cabrera is a better fielder as well. I don't think the gap in those two players is nearly as large as people think it is.

Why would pulling this thread out mean anything? The Brewers already talked to them about Morrow and they couldn't find the right prospects that they wanted to do the deal. Yeah I agree the end result looks underwhelming but Jack Z must have liked something in these players. I just think it is wrong to assume Melvin somehow 'blew it' when he actually did talk about trading for the player but just couldn't find a match. We have no clue at all what the Mariners were asking for out of our system. This kind of thing happens to me all the time in fantasy baseball. I make a fair offer for a player, I get turned down and they end up trading the guy for players I think are worthless. Everyone judges players differently and we have no clue who was offered on our end.

I sure would have liked to have added Vazquez instead of Wolf but I'm pretty sure Melvin already talked to the Braves and they couldn't come up with a deal so at some point he kind of has to sign one of the FA out there.

Because it is the best tool we have for small samples of data and at this point the large sample(his career) doesn't really mean much. I didn't remove it, I said that given the fact that 2 bad starts at the start of the season is all it took to see a jump in xFIP I'm not going to assume that it is some new trend and not just variance. FIP is the weakest of the 3 stats you looked at and his ERA is right where I would project it over that timeframe.. Seems like somewhere in the 4.90-5.00 range is perfectly within expectations to me. I was just eyeballing it so maybe the 5.00 is more likely than the 4.90 but I don't see any reason to project something as high as 5.35.

People aren't comparing Marquis to Suppan from the signing, they are trying to decide if it would have been worth replacing Suppan with that contract for Marquis.

I think that is a bad projection is the basis for my opinion. He hasn't had an xFIP or ERA that high any of the last 3 years so I don't see a compelling reason to expect it to jump that much. I'd put Marquis at something like a 4.70 and Suppan at like a 4.90-5.00 range, a marginal difference. ERA over a single season is useless. Over the past 4 years Suppan has had an xFIP trend of 4.66, 4.90, 4.79, 5.26 and that 5.26 came mostly due to a bad 2 starts to start the year, the rest of the season it was right in the expected 4.90ish range so I'm not ready to assume it is some new level and not just variance. Marquis trend has been 5.44, 4.98, 4.91, 4.41. If last years growth in GB% sticks maybe he is a larger upgrade over Suppan but I have to see him do it again, he's had spikes like that in the past and they went away the next season. I'd expect Marquis and Suppan to be within 0.25 in true talent most likely, with 0.50 being the upper limit if you really assume Suppan is 'done'. Not sure that is worth spending that kind of money to improve that small amount. I don't think signing Marquis for $7.5M to put Suppan in the bullpen is a smart use of resources. The $7.5M could be better used elsewhere. Now signing him and moving Parra to AAA as injury depth has a bit of merit. That way if Suppan really is 'done' you have Parra to come fill in for him and if someone gets hurt we go to Parra. That also lets Parra work on his fastball in the minors with less pressure to start the year and if he gets things together he can be brought up and we can push Suppan to the bullpen if need be. So if that were the plan I'd have been ok with the signing.

Melky is a pretty average hitter for a CF and he is a pretty average fielder as well. Gomez has to hit better to really be anymore valuable than Melky is. Now Cabrera in RF is another matter, that wouldn't be worth it.

Marquis isn't that much of an upgrade over Suppan so I can see why they didn't make that move. It would have been nice having that depth so Parra could start in AAA though and become the answer when someone gets hurt instead of potentially the problem even if someone doesn't. I think if they are going to get another pitcher it is going to be someone clearly better than what we have and not just marginally better. Someone with some upside and obviously it will come with either heavy injury risk or via trade.

Don't get your opinion confused with fact because many people completely disagree with you and they just aren't wrong because you disagree with it. You can believe that variance plays no role in baseball but the burden of proof is really on you and not those who say it exists. Regardless of the cause of BABIP it is a FACT(not an opinion) that it regresses towards certain ranges and unless Parra is completely outside historical norms we shouldn't expect his BABIP to stay as high as it is. Even horrible pitchers who flame out don't keep BABIP that high. Personally I don't know how you can watch baseball and not think there is a lot of variance in the results(what most people call luck), especially when you are talking about pitching. You can make a perfect pitch and have a guy hit it out and then the next pitcher throws him a complete meatball and he pops it up. That is just how the game works. You can throw a great pitch that gets hit weakly but finds a hole and the next pitcher throws a terrible pitch that gets lined right at someone. These things don't magically even out over just 200 IP, it takes longer than that.

2008 he had bad luck with BABIP and LOB% and 2009 he was hurt. His xFIP trend from 2006-2008 was 4.81, 4.57, 4.64 which is really steady. In 2009 it jumped up to 5.53 but it was only 30 IP and he was hurt.

You can survive as a RP without great location and with just good offspeed and a bad fastball. It is extremely hard to do that with a SP. His 'good success' early as a SP was all BABIP and LOB%, he never had good peripherals as a starter. I stand by what I said, Dave Bush is his upside as a starter and he would only be that good if he found a way to improve his control. A flyball pitcher with questionable control and only 2 decent pitches both of which are off speed is not the skillset you want for a starter. He should be used in the pen in relativey low pressure situations preferably where he would get to face 2 lefties or a tough lefty that you don't want to waste your LOOGY on since he is stronger vs LH than RH.

But he doesn't locate. CV as a starter is a slighty improved Suppan or a slightly weaker Dave Bush. I don't think we really need another one of those types of guys. He has really struggled late in games as well. Just look at his OPS by time through order. 1st) .686 2nd) .824 3rd) 1.037 I want no part of him going back to beign a starter, he is just way more effective as a RP.

I think you go with your best pitchers so Felix, Lester, Peavy, Carpenter, Gallardo, Vazquez, Halladay.

I think parra should start the year in AAA personally which means signing another SP. It is simply amazing how terrible his fastball has been statistically the past 2 seasons, he needs to figure out how to control it or how to get more movement on it.

Villanueva does not have the stuff to be a starter, he needs to stay in the bullpen. He just cannot get through a lineup a 3rd time with his weak fastball, he relies way too much on the slider and change up which works ok for a RP but not for a starter.

Gomez and Escobar have to step up big time for us to be as good right now as we were last year. The loss of Cameron is as big a drop in production as the gain of Wolf and Zaun. Maybe the bullpen is a tad better but we are also probably weaker at 2B. If the team is going to actually improve this year it is probably going to be in Suppan, Bush and Parra pitching better more than anything else. The offseason moves have been a wash as we've given up 2 players capable of 4+ WAR and got players worth 2 WAR or so back. There is no fascination, he is just one of the best CF in baseball and has been for years now. It basically comes down to low AVG and high K. People who think those two things are great sins don't like him, those who look at the total package realize just how valuable a player he is.

I have to agree with dadofandrew. We aren't trading Suppan and he isn't likely to go to the bullpen unless he really stinks it up. There are too many marginal pitchers that can be had on the cheap right now and we need pitching depth ourselves. We would have to find someone with just a horrible contract to make a trade happen and then we'd have to pay for 1 or 2 more starters just to have enough depth ourselves, I just don't see it happening.

Nice work logan. I do think you are getting a bit skewed results from adding all those small sample size guys to the #1. Not sure how else to do it though. I mean Narveson's 4 starts probably shouldnt' really count as a #1 just because he got lucky with his ERA over that small sample or Kyle Kendrick's 2 starts etc. Pitching did improve some the last couple of years league wide(which makes ours look even worse!) so good to see some updated numbers to use. That shows that Suppan slots in between a 4 and 5 and has some value, Silva assuming he is healthy probably slots in as a pure #4. These guys may stink but they aren't worthless either. Gallardo is more of a #2 and Wolf a #3 with that chart but I still think the biggest problem is just the overall depth. We aren't signing a stud at this point but we can add to the depth to make it less important.

Between the Silva signing and the Suppan complaints I figured I'd link this one more time. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-good-is-your-4-starter/ Now granted the 5th starter is usually an injury callup but as long as a pitcher can match the 4th starter they have value. If your pitcher can post an ERA somewhere between 4.84 and 5.66 they have some sort of value to a team. Silva's xFIP the past 3 years have been 4.57, 4.64 and 5.53. Suppan's have been 4.90, 4.79,. 5.26. These guys aren't good pitchers but they still aren't replacement level or 'worthless'. They aren't good pitchers but very few teams have good pitchers in the #4 or #5 slots. Also of note in that article is that Gallardo does fit the bill of a #1 starter and Wolf most likely fits the bill of a #2. They aren't a dominate 1/2 but they do fit the basic range you expect from them. Bush slots in ok as a #3. The biggest problem with the rotation is there just is no room for error and any injury or underperformace is going to kill us. We need to sign another real SP~ . Ok that went a bit off topic, heh.

A lot of their players don't get along with Ichiro either. http://sportsbybrooks.com/mariner-teammate-wanted-to-knock-out-ichiro-20097 This same story comes up every year as a lot of people don't get along with him.

The Brewers cannot afford to trade a major league pitcher unless it saves them a LOT of money or they get one back. We still don't have enough SP depth as it is. Trading bad contracts to get Suppan off the team makes no sense at all.

That is making quite the assumption that it was going to be Hardy's high point. Some people still think he is a 3+ WAR player who just had an off season and we traded him at his low point. It won't surprise me even a little bit if Hardy ends up being the best SS in the AL this year.

New article up at baseballanalysts. http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/behind_the_scor/ If this is accurate it would suggest Wolf can put up as little as 1.5 WAR per season and still be an ok signing. If he puts up 2 WAR or more each season he was a bargain. It also goes to show that free agents are just too darn expensive.

This isn't true at all though. Silva was hurt last year. If he recovers from the injury he is most likely worth 1-2 WAR with an outside chance at 3 (which he did 3 of the past 6 years mind you). Silva might not be a great pitcher but you are going way overboard with these statements. Most teams in the NL would upgrade their rotations with Silva as the #5.