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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Cameron was one of the most valuable signing of the 2008 off-season. If you take the difference in defense between Braun at 3B and LF, Hall in CF vs 3B and Cameron replacing Menchkins you get something like a 5-6 win improvement for the team. Without signing Cameron this team doesn't make the playoffs last year. Same with the trade for Torres most likely since the race was so close. Heck a case can even be made that the Mota for Estrada trade got us in the playoffs, Mota was about a game above replacement and the Mets had replacement level RP on their team. If they keep Mota and we have some scrub we easily could have fallen 1 game short while the Mets went. Most of our returning players from 2007 to 2008 had worse seasons in 2008, Gallardo got hurt and we still improved by 7 games. A few of those games were Sabathia but most of them were the off season improvements.
  2. Ennder
    The Brewers look to be about an 81-85 win team right now depending on how optimistic you want to be. We lost roughly 12 wins between sheets/sabathia/torres and maybe gained a win or two by losing Gagne, Turnbow etc. Gallardo for a full year should be worth 2 wins, generic improvement by young guys probably worth a win. If we go out and sign a Looper type who is like 1-1.5 wins and say Fuentes or Hoffman which is 1.5 wins we'll be sitting in the 84-89 win range which is where you really want to be to be in the playoff hunt. That means a couple hot streaks, a little luck or a mid season trade can easily push the team up to 90 win range like last year. That is the twins model that everyone is so fond of, build a team good enough to back into the playoffs but that doesn't really have the talent to be considered a sure fire playoff team and hope for the best.
  3. Ennder
    Garland is going to cost significantly more than Looper for probably 1-2 extra years which is why I don't like that option. I'm ok with Odalis Perez though he hasn't had a lot of luck staying healthy over the last few years, would have to be a 1-2 year deal and/or incentive based to make much sense.
  4. Ennder
    If we can get him for that price he'd be one of the biggest FA bargains in the past 5 years, he is worth considerably more than that.
  5. Ennder
    He is a better pitcher than Suppan most likely, fewer BBs and higher GB%. He probably is pretty close to Bush in talent which isnt' anything amazing but a rotation of guys like that still ends up being a league average rotation so it doesn't hurt adding another one. I'm more than a little worried about Suppan's health since he was so horrible after coming back from the DL and Gallardo/Parra going more than 175 IP so we definitely NEED another SP. McClung needs to be the backup plan and not the 5th start to start the year.
  6. Ennder
    I probably would, I'd rather have him than Sheets or Burnett most likely. His profile of pitching is one that generally ages very well and thrives no matter the ballpark he pitches in. His tERA fully supports the ERA so there isn't a fluke at how good he has been. Lowe is a pretty solid #2 type pitcher which is what we could really use. Our IF defense could hurt him a bit of course.
  7. Ennder
    We need another starter and he is a servicable one, I don't have a problem with it. A top end starter would be great but not signing any starter at all is a nightmare.
  8. Ennder
    Nice post though I'd disagree with this part of it. Cirillo can only play 3B at an adequate level and only vs lefties, Counsell was a more useful player than Cirillo over that stretch.
  9. Ennder
    Marmol rarely throws strikes and people think he'll be a great closer. Of course he has so much movement on his pitches that the ump is generally just guessing on strike and ball calls just like the hitters.
  10. Ennder
    Eveland had a 5.33 tERA last year, he had a decent stretch because of a pitchers park and luck but he still hasn't really had any value at this point. That still wasn't a great trade but who knows if Estrada and Vargas don't both get injured in 2007 and slide after the injuries maybe it would look ok. Overall he has done well with trades I think, he just has thrown a lot of money at mediocre players with mediocre to bad results.
  11. Ennder
    Unfortunately the Rangers 1st round pick is protected so if he goes there we don't get a 1st round either.
  12. Ennder
    "Ken Rosenthal reports that a source familiar with Andy Pettitte's thinking said it's "virtually inevitable" that he will reach an agreement with the Yankees." That is good news on the Sheets front. If they sign Pettitte I don't think they would go after Sheets too.
  13. Ennder
    It is definitely a concern. I'd like to see someone 'decent' signed just so McClung becomes the backup due to injuries and not the plan.
  14. Ennder
    But you are just making assumptions here, who knows what Melvin is thinking. These are minor league deals, if he can get a LH bat that is better he'll just release these guys.
  15. Ennder
    Gold glove defense, great hitter, young. Not much to dislike. He is easily one of the top 15 players in baseball and when you take age etc into account I'd say top 10. I'd rather pay for Teix than Sabathia that is for sure.
  16. Ennder
    This isn't anywhere near the truth and I assume you know it and are just trolling at this point.
  17. Ennder
    I'll add that I don't consider this a playoff roster, just not one that will be 'lucky to be .500'. It is something like an 81-84 win team if it stays pretty healthy.
  18. Ennder
    I'm not sure if this was an attempt at humor or not, but this is a)never anything Rickie Weeks has gone by, and b)not the kind of innuendo-based nicknaming that is acceptable on this forum.I'm guessing it was a play on people calling him Richie since a lot of people with that name go by the nickname Dick. I don't really understand why someone would want to go by that nickname though or what it has to do with Richie.
  19. Ennder
    But again this is basically the same team that was over .500 before we traded for Sabathia last year. They aren't rose colored glasses it is not having a knee jerk reaction to losing players. Sheets, Sabathia and Torres combined to be about 11 wins over replacement last year. Gagne, Turnbow, Riske combined to be like 2 games below replacement. A healthy Gallardo probably is worth 2 wins over what he gave us last year. So assuming the team does nothing but returns the rest of the players we are looking at 81 wins or more most likely. If we make a couple little signings here and there and a few players produce better than last year there is absolutely no reason to expect sub .500 out of the team. People just assume that single players help or hurt the team more than they really do.
  20. Ennder
    Our closer pre-sabathia was certainly nothing special last year either. JJ did exactly what I expected last year and I expect him to repeat it this year. That is the player that Hardy is.
  21. Ennder
    I like Sanchez's stuff but he hasn't shown he can control it yet. He has a 5.18 ERA in the majors so far as a heavy flyball pitcher in a big park and he has walked over 4.5 per 9. He is young and obviously could improve but he is also 26 already so that improvement needs to come sooner rather than later. I do like his overall trends but this is a trade that could really go wrong for 2009 as there is no guarantee at all that he is better than say McClung as a starter. Bradley, Abreu and Dunn will likely all be overpaid so not sure it is a wise move to go out and get them. We of course could use that OBP so they are good fits for our team but Abreu and Dunn are absolute hacks in the field and Bradley makes Sheet's health record look good. Now Johnson for Hart is more interesting to me.
  22. Ennder
    We were well above .500 with this same exact team minus Gallarado/Torres and plus Sheets before the Sabathia trade last year. I don't see how we are lucky to be .500 downgrading from Sheets to Gallardo. We could certainly use an arm but it doesn't have to be an ace for us to be competitive.
  23. Ennder
    If this article is true I like the idea a lot more than before! http://www.abc6.com/sports/36277274.html Sorry about the caps, that is how the article was written so not sure I believe it.
  24. Ennder
    WPA is based on an average not a replacement level. He was somewhere between .5 and 1 wins above replacement. He earned his salary last year or at least came very close to earning it.
  25. Ennder
    Capuano was also pitching pretty well before he suffered an injury and then was terrible until they shut him down. I always take stats after an injury with a grain of salt. He is a big injury risk and that covers the injury angle enough by itself.
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