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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Dunn is a butcher in the OF, you don't want him out there if you can avoid it. You certainly don't move an average OF to 1B to make room for him.
  2. Ennder
    Once someone signs some of the other FA pitchers I'm sure Sheets will get something done, this was a very pitching heavy free agent class.
  3. Ennder
    So my observations aren't valid because I like statistics? I'm not buying that one bit. I said Weeks looked better last year before any defensive stats were even released, the fact the stats agreed with me just validated my observation, it didn't create the observation. As another point of observation he looked a lot better in the first half but in the second half he started to lose focus more often and look not as good. I don't know if there is a place to get month by month defensive splits but I'm willing to bet the defensive metrics had him much higher at the all star break than at the end of the year.
  4. Ennder
    Durham had a .369 OBP and .845 OPS so they were pretty much neck and neck. It was certainly a situation that worked out well for the team. I'd imagine Durham faced tougher pitching overall since I seem to remember Weeks sitting against all the tough righties.
  5. Ennder
    Durhams first game as a Brewer was July 21st. From July 21st until the end of the year Weeks hit .267 with a .371 OBP and an .832 OPS making him one of the best leadoff hitters in the NL. I don't know if getting Durham was a wakeup call or if it was just a case where protecting Weeks from better right handers makes his stats look better but he certainly was not floundering.
  6. Ennder
    I think Hart taking BBs again and Fielder finding his power stroke for more of the season are probably more important but Weeks improving is right up there. Kendall's defense is pretty darn important as well as if he slips to 2007 style defense he becomes a big black hole at C.
  7. Ennder
    Sorry, I was responding to JB's post, I just hadn't refreshed my window since I originally opened it..
  8. Ennder
    well dropping from his career .406 SLG to a .398 SLG is hardly a trend, that is within expected values. His ISO is probably a better indicator for power since SLG includes singles, his career ISO is .162 and his 2008 ISO was .164 which again is right around career numbers albeit lower than in 2007. Last year his BB% was higher than his career level, K% was lower than career level and ISO was higher than career level and for my money at least his fielding improved. He showed slight improvement in most areas of his game over his career rates, just not compared to the offense of 2007. His BABIP was low last year which is probably what drove the down year the most. In April he was drilling the ball all over the place but right at players (I remember that anecdotally), in May he was grounding out weakly and popping up constantly. Then in June he finally started to put up more normal numbers.
  9. Ennder
    Well I didn't say he was good, just better than in the past. That is what making strides means, he is improving in a noticable fashion at least to my eyes.
  10. Ennder
    Find some stats saying it is wrong and I'm talking casual fans here not hardcore stat gurus. The problem with observation is everyone sees something different. Wtihout a doubt in my mind Weeks improved last year defensively but then you obviously disagree with it, in fact you just stated that my observation doesn't mean I can claim he is making strides. Watching Durham last year was painful to the point where I think he needs to go to the AL and become a DH. He just couldn't get to anything even if it was almost hit right at him, yet many fans think he was a big defensive upgrade over Weeks last year. If you just use observation you can't ever prove anything, that is my big problem with it. So if my observations aren't enough and the stats aren't enough haven't you already made up your own mind? That is why I stick to stats with my discussions, my opinions and observations can very easily be wrong or just ignored, back things up with stats and it gets a bit trickier to ignore.
  11. Ennder
    Durham is worse defensively than Weeks and can't play full time. Weeks is pretty close to an average major league 2B overall. He has been above average offensively in his career and below average defensively. NL 2B put up a .338 OBP and .408 SLG last year. Weeks career line is now a .352 OBP and .406 SLG. He sits above average in OBP and right around average in SLG. Most importantly though is the fact that he is cheap, if we were spending a lot on him it would be different but at his salary if he is 1 game above replacement he is worth it.
  12. Ennder
    So what you are saying basically is Garland happened to get a lot of wins so he must be good? He has a career ERA of 4.47 and his peripherals are trending the wrong way. If it wasn't for 2005 which wasa product of BABIP and LOB% people would think he is just another Jeff Suppan which basically is what he is. I mean I'm fine with Garland if he doesn't get paid a whole lot but we already have one Suppan, don't really need a second one at that price. I'd rather get Looper for fewer years, fewer dollars and probably pretty close to the same production.
  13. Ennder
    I really couldn't disagree with this more. BIS actually shows Weeks as improving last year and to my observation it is correct, he made strides last year defensively for sure. Generally speaking fans judge a fielder on the first few games they watch involving him and then just remember the big blunders and great plays and the rest just passes by them.
  14. Ennder
    Of course neither of those guys are as good as cameron or really able to play every day.
  15. Ennder
    Yeah I'm sure it has. This also isn't really about Ben Sheets to me, I could care less whether we sign him or not. I'm not some huge Sheets fan with posters of him hanging around my house and whatnot. We could be talking about any other pitcher and this is what my opinion would be. In general fans seem to think that pitchers are a lot healthier on average than they really are and in Sheets specific case the fact that one injury bridged two seasons seems to make people think he is more injury prone than he really is. I also really hate the way the Brewers have handled their starters in general, I think management is the cause for a lot of the teams inability to keep starters healthy over the past 10+ years.
  16. Ennder
    I'd love to have spent that much on Smoltz to take some heat off Gallardo and Parra.
  17. Ennder
    It also looks like it is $6M plus 1.5M in incentives which makes it even safer. btw, just gotta say again thanks for starting this site. I read the post about this on Haudricourts blog and if I had to deal with the posters over at that site on a regular basis I just wouldn't bother talking Brewers. So much ignorance.
  18. Ennder
    A single year offer at that price isn't really overpaying. If it had been say 2 years at that price it would have been. Going for on one year makes the contract so much more valuable.
  19. Ennder
    Fair enough but on the other hand there are very few pitchers in baseball that don't have at least one major injury at some point in their career and even fewer that don't have multiple minor injuries. I showed the numbers earlier so I won't go through it again but there are only something like 8 pitchers in baseball that have gone 200 IP each of the last 3 years. It isn't common to go 200+ IP like people think it is.
  20. Ennder
    I didn't expect Sheets to be able to go 200 innings after three partial seasons in a row. He should have been on about a 180 inning inning limit. If anyone let the team down it was management for misusing him earlier in the season. They blew it with Parra too who should have been on an inning limit and maybe started the season in relief. Sheets did what was expected of a pitcher coming off seasons of 156. 106 and 141 innings. He it a wall at around 175 innings just like everyone should have expected.
  21. Ennder
    You say that like Sheets has an extensive serious injury list instead of one major and a bunch of minor injuries. He had an injury in 2005 after being top 10 in PAP in 2004 while pitching with a bad back, that injury was supposed to last a year and he tried to come back from it early and aggravated it, then was healthy the 2nd half of that season. He was healthy the next year other than a jammed finger and some minor little injuries that can happen to anyone. The next year he is healthy most of the season though again in the top 5 in PAP and he hits the wall as expected before the end of the year. I blame Yost and the Brewer management in general for Sheets and for Capuano as well while we are at it. No way in heck they should have been pushing Capuano to pitch on 3 days rest in 05 to try to get him 20 wins when he had arm problems in the past and it was his first full major league season. Go back a few years and I blame them for Eldred breaking down so early too, they put way too many innings on his arm at a young age. I should hope they have learned from their mistakes at this point and will baby Gallardo and Parra at least somewhat this year to stretch them out into the 200+ innings club.
  22. Ennder
    Making good contact and BABIP don't always have a strong correlation to each other, the reason for BABIP blips are usually things outside of a players control, it isn't just a 'hot streak' for most players. Believe what you want I can't stop you, the mental aspect of the game matters but it isn't more important than the talent. As mentally strong as Craig Counsell is he will never be Barry Bonds and has much of a headcase as Manny is he is still one of the best hitters in the game. Furthermore I generally talk long term and not short term. If a player excels for some mental reason it becomes part of his skills and talent to me. David Eckstein may have willed himself to the stats he put up but the stats were pretty consistent and years he had a BABIP spike were followed with years where it regressed to normal and his stats got worse. Stats don't ignore the mental aspect of the game, they incorporate it.
  23. Ennder
    Time for excuses? He has a 4.31 ERA in his first 181 IP in the majors and a career 3.07 in the minors,. The majority of pitchers in baseball would kill for those stats at those inning levels going into their age 26 season. Heck Lincecum had a 4.00 ERA after his first 146 IP, was the time for his excuses over at that point(btw Lincecum is only a little over 1 year younger than Parra)? Greg Maddux had an ERA over 5 after his first 180 IP. You make it sound like he should be taken out back and shot because he didn't have a sub 4 ERA in his first year in the majors.
  24. Ennder
    I'm ok with signing Hoffman but there are no guarantees that he is a viable closer all year. His peripherals have been slipping for the last few years and outside that park and weak hitting division things may just break down on him.
  25. Ennder
    The Twins and White Sox both overachieved by a pretty significant amount last year and Detroit doesn't have good pitching. I think that division is wide open and Cleveland is as good as anyone else in it.
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