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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    McGowan is above average too, just had injury issues. That is why I said the Cubs might very well have been a 5th place team in the AL East. The Blue Jays would easily have been the 2nd best team in the NL and maybe the best.
  2. Ennder
    ERA and WHIP are really terrible stats to project for pitching so if we do that again next year we should come up with something like OPS against and K/BB or something. Our hitting underperformed on the year and on top of that offense was down in general. The pitching in the division was better than previous years since the Reds actually got some pitchers. I bet if you look at predictions vs Sept 1st numbers they'd look a lot more in line, we finished the year with a team wide offensive slump.
  3. Ennder
    Oh I agree he is a valuable #4, it is just kind of funny that as Bush regresses the fanbase wants to keep him more. 2008 for Dave Bush was a lucky BABIP and that is about it. He had a BABIP of .245 compared to his career rate of .293. His 2007 was the same, he had a .327 BABIP which drove up his ERA and WHIP. Pitchers who dont' K a ton and give up a lot of extra base hits are always going to be at the whim of BABIP so Bush will probably always be like this.
  4. Ennder
    The Rays were a last place team last year and they are headed for the divisional series with no experience. Basically the playoffs come down to which team gets hot and which team is the healthiest more than anything.
  5. Ennder
    http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=10370
  6. Ennder
    The value of marginal wins goes up as you get higher in win totals. What that means is when you are talking about top end players on playoff calibre teams their value just goes up and up instead of going down like you expect. A player like CC on a playoff calibre team is more valuable than his stats suggest, not less valuable.
  7. Ennder
    Not saying I disagree with your opinion of Suppan and 'playoff experience', but I think this is a horrible example to point to. Suppan pretty obviously was not fully healthy in September, his stats were terrible compared to his 3 year averages and all you can say about his start this year in the playoffs is it should have been obvious that he wasn't healthy and shouldn't have pitched. It was as smart a move as sending Sheets out there would have been.
  8. Ennder
    I agree. The odd thing is that every year since he became a Brewer he has become a slightly worse as a SP but now suddenly people want to re-sign him instead of DFA him. ERA is a fickle stat and I sure hope our management uses better stats/scouting to judge our pitchers.
  9. Ennder
    I guess I disagree, the only bad choice in that bunch was going with Suppan. I'm not huge on Cameron leading off either but the other options all stink too so I'd have stuck with Weeks, but oh well. Hall against lefties is fine as a #2.
  10. Ennder
    Saw this question over at baseballprospectus today and seemed pretty fitting for this thread, I also agree with Joe's answer 100%. http://www.baseballprospe.../chat/chat.php?chatId=530
  11. Ennder
    Looking at Cameron's career it does indeed seem like he slows down at the end of the year. If we do end up bringing him back I'd really like to see him sit every other week or so to stay rested.
  12. Ennder
    That type of info is pretty spotty overall, they can come up with a formula that predicts how much it took based on BB, K rates etc but I don't know if there is a good place to find exact numbers. Also I didn't mean to say Spahn would suck nowadays, he just wouldn't be a 270 IP pitcher. His career ERA+ is 118, Sheets right now has a career ERA+ of 116. Baseball is a very different game now and it isn't simple to just say why don't pitchers like today pitch like pitchers of yesteryear. As for SS I wasn't able to find easily sortable OPS lists before 1974 but here are the leaders by OPS at the position for a few years and how low in the leader board you had to go to have a sub .700. 74 - Toby Harrah .736 (4th best was .697) 75 - Toby Harrah .862 (4th best was a .679) 76 - Rick Burleson .748 (4th best was .679) 77 - Gary Templeton .786 (5th best was .691) 78 - Roy Smalley .796 (7th best was .689) 79 - Roy Smalley .794 (5th best was .697) 08 - Hanley Ramirez .940 (4th best was Hardy .821, 13th best was a .699) The position has definitely changed in recent years.
  13. Ennder
    I'm not sure I buy into the fact that we need more high Average guys specifically. We definitely need higher OBP though and AVG is one way to go about it. If I had to lead the league in AVG, OBP or SLG I'd pick OBP every time.
  14. Ennder
    The whole Brewer's don't hit with RISP was off base as well though. Four teams hit lower overall than the Brewers on the year, so should it be surprise only 3 teams hit lower overall with RISP? We actually rated slightly better with RISP than without.
  15. Ennder
    Maybe we'll get CC at a discount since he obviously isn't a big game pitcher given his post season record. Then maybe we can not abuse his arm as much for the next playoff run and he'll pitch just fine and shut up the people who are saying that nonsense~.
  16. Ennder
    Again if you go look at the research in the 50's the average number of pitches per game for the 'horse' style pitcher was in the 105-115 range. It has slowly gone down to where it is now in the 100-105 range. The biggest difference is it takes more pitches per inning so the innings has dropped a lot more and teams don't skip the 5th starter as often anymore. The pitches per game really hasn't changed all that much. Parra threw 2704 pitches this year, if he can pump that up to 3000-3100 next year he is looking at 200 IP if he doesn't BB a ton of guys. If his BB stay high that is probably more like 190.
  17. Ennder
    Spahn faced between 1025 and 1289 batters a year in his prime years. A guy like Webb faces 930-975 batters per year now and CC faced 1023 this year. Those extra 100-300 batters faced came in 50-100 extra innings for Spahn compared to Webb which means most likely fewer runners on, few maximium effort pitches. Add in the fact that hitters take more pitches now than they used to and Spahn would likely be a 200-220 IP pitcher in today's game. The pitchers aren't babies, the game has just changed.
  18. Ennder
    I'm on board with CC for 4-5 years but if it is a 6-7 year deal then not so much.
  19. Ennder
    I really wouldn't say they are following the Twin's model at all. We are aggressive with young callups and seem to value SLG over everything else and power pitchers. That is more or less exactly the opposite of how the Twins do it.
  20. Ennder
    I'm indifferent towards it. They should at least interview candidates, he hasn't earned the job outright. I can't imagine any manager we get being worse than Yost so whatever happens I consider it an upgrade.
  21. Ennder
    Sheets will sign for 3+ years elsewhere unless the arm has something wrong with it other than just soreness. A sore arm after 196 innings is not going to force him into a 1 year deal. So it really depends on what ends up being wrong with him right now. I pray that CC signs somewhere else as his contract will almost certainly be a disaster for whoever signs him. I'm not sure who all is FA so not sure if there is anyone I'd go after. It also wouldn't surprise me to see Capuano come back and win a spot.
  22. Ennder
    Remember it is really pitches more than innings that matter. While Parra only threw 166 innings a lot of those were high pitch innings. If he can become more consistent with throwing strikes he should be ok doing 200 innings. Gallardo is a bit more hard to know what to do but I wouldn't want him to go 200 innings.
  23. Ennder
    I would expect Suppan to end the yaer with somewhere between a 4.50 and 5.00 ERA most years in our ballpark with our infield defense. Stick him in a pitchers park and with a good defense and it might dip down to the 4.25-4.75 range. Certainly not a great pitcher but not terrible at the back end of a rotation.
  24. Ennder
    No, I went back and watched the archived raw footage of the game. Wasn't the greatest angle and I had been drinking so maybe it wasn't the best viewing~
  25. Ennder
    Suppan's numbers before September were right in line with his career numbers which makes him roughly a #4 quality SP. I don't like the contract either but to say he needs to be kicked off the team etc is just way off base.
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