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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    What I'm really hoping for is a Zambrano regression. He has never been dominant more than 2 months in a row in his entire career and he hasn't looked that good in his last couple starts. Marquis has been regressing for a while now, Marshall hasn't looked good lately, Hill is still getting hit pretty hard. Lilly has never gone 200+ IP in his career so hopefully he wears down. If that rotation regresses like it should combined with how mediocre that offense is I think we are in business.
  2. Ennder
    Those final 4 games against SD might not all have playoff implications either, if Ari tanks like I think they will the last couple games might see the Padres already winning the division and resting a few guys for the playoffs. If STL does poorly this week they might be completely out of it as well in which case I'm not so sure they are much better than Fla or Cin. Its very hard to say. Also Arroyo has been a good pitcher for half a season in his entire career, not really worried about facing him. While playing in Chi seems like a huge advantage to them we seem to play them pretty well there lately, 3-3 this year, 5-4 last year.
  3. Ennder
    http://msnbcmedia1.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photos/050607/050607_depres_vsml_1p.vsmall.jpg That guy always scared me, especially since they let him cross the canadian border into the US with a bloody chainsaw.
  4. Ennder
    I am not a Tom Haurdricourt fan at all but I might still have to pick up the book, it looks pretty interesting.
  5. Ennder
    The first thing would be his BABIP which is .386. Its unlikely he can sustain that at over a .340 pace since nobody does so at the very least you have to look at this season as him hitting at best .308 with luck when trying to judge next year, that is the best case scenario. Worst case is his BABIP drops to around .320 (he has too many good tools to suggest he should be league average), that puts his AVG down to .288 for the year which looks more reasonable with his other stats. Next is his K/BB rate, a 22% K rate with a 6.8% BB rate is not the numbers of a good average hitter. One of those numbers has to change for him to stay a .300 hitter long term. The good news is his AAA numbers were better so there is reason to expect his numbers to grow as he ages. Also with the rate he's hitting HR's you have to assume the BB% goes up with time as well. Braun very well may end up as a .300 hitter in his prime, I just think looking at this seasons numbers its not safe to assume he'll hit it next year. If he dips into the .280-.290 range I'm not going to be upset with his lack of AVG or anything like that.
  6. Ennder
    Small sample so far I know but so far he is 7 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 8 K, 1 HR, 1.29 WHIP, .573 OPS against. It also seems plausible that he saves a very overworked bullpen that only seems to have two reliable arms on it other than Linebrink. The deal of course comes down to Inman vs draft picks for losing Linebrink but I'm glad we made the move. I feel if we win the division there can be an argument made that this trade is why it happened.
  7. Ennder
    Unfortunately his numbers suggest he's not really a .300 hitter, if he hits .290 next year I will not be upset at all.
  8. Ennder
    I agree, people seem to think that 3 singles in a row to score a run is small ball, when to me thats just having a good OBP.
  9. Ennder
    Yeah it would be, but I couldn't find the top 10 in RC/27, heh. Thing is that no matter how good Braun is this year, he would have been more valuable had he started the season in the majors and RC/27 ignores missed playing time.
  10. Ennder
    I don't have a huge issue with Weeks bunting there, especially considering his speed means a greater chance of coming up with a bunt hit as well. Those run probability charts are nice but they also aren't very accurate, obviously having say Reyes up to bunt with a fast runner on 2nd is a different situation than Fielder bunting with Estrada on 2nd. I do think bunting in general is a bad move with a position player, but that was one case where it made sense.
  11. Ennder
    I'd look at runs created myself. <span style="font-weight: bold;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Rank</span> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Player</span> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">RC</span> <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Year</span></span> 1. Robin Yount 141 1982 2. Cecil Cooper 131 1980 3. Paul Molitor 128 1991 4. Richie Sexson 124 2003 5. Ben Oglivie 121 1980 6. Robin Yount 120 1989 7. Cecil Cooper 119 1982 8. Tommy Harper 118 1970 9. Robin Yount 117 1987 10. Cecil Cooper 116 1983 11. John Jaha 116 1996 Fielder is at 98, Braun is at 75. (I don't know how to make that look nice with these new forums)
  12. Ennder
    To start the year he had improved his BB rate while lowering his K rate and was hitting for good power. Then his wrist acted up and he pretty much completely lost it. My personal opinion is the wrist is the cause of most of his issues but there is no way to know for sure.
  13. Ennder
    I dunno if this is just a vent or an actual question so I'll answer it. Turnbow most likely was the 'closer' for tonight so in Ned's world that makes him unavailable. Linebrink pitched back to back days and most likely was not available. Parra isn't any more reliable than Spurling in that situation. Villanueva has gone for more than 1 IP effectivley 16 times this season. I'd have just gone with Turnbow but you guys make way too big a deal about the bullpen usage (not pointing at you personally Bruce). The fanbase seems to think that all the RP's can throw 100 games a year or something without worrying about being overworked.
  14. Ennder
    Didn't realize i was making some big prediction here, I made a half joking comment in the middle of a thread about a comeback player.
  15. Ennder
    The problem is generally all the voters care about are HR/RBI. The MVP is almost universally the person who ranks the best in those categories regardless of whether the team is in the playoffs. The only other things that give you real consideration are an AVG way about everyone else in the league or a ton of SB's while still putting up good numbers elsewhere. Defense barely matters, being all around good at everything isn't usually enough.
  16. Ennder
    How many times has the Brewers WPA shown we have almost no chance to lose this year? Probably a good 7 or 8 times in which we lost. anything can happen and while I think the Cardinals team is horrible I was only halfway being sarcastic by my statement.
  17. Ennder
    Wise looked good today, if he's "fixed" it really helps shore up the bullpen.
  18. Ennder
    Team MVP sure, league MVP I doubt it. Fielder is a much more likely candidate.
  19. Ennder
    Small ball is silly in general, its a reaction to being a bad team trying to scrape together runs because your team isn't able to score them in general. Situational hitting is a pretty important part of baseball and has nothing to do with small ball, generally people complain about that more than anything. That is the problem we have with driving in runners on 2nd and 3rd with 0 or 1 outs.
  20. Ennder
    I believe in the lattice of coincidence.
  21. Ennder
    My many years of strat o matic taught me how random baseball is. Now I know that is just a baseball game but thats the entire point, teams/players go on all kinds of wacky streaks over a 162 game season even without the 'emotional factor'. You don't have to fall back on it to try to explain every little thing that happens.
  22. Ennder
    Capuano's K/9, BB/9, GB% are a little better than in 2004 and 2005. His ERA is almost completely a product of the higher than normal BABIP and LOB% and the fact he was very lucky in 2005. He is pitching better than he did in 2004/2005. 2006 seems to be an outlier as he finally got his BB's down that year. As a team the Brewers are towards the bottom of the league in DER and LOB% which explains most of their struggles. They are very solid in FIP though so its mostly a combination of bad luck, bad middle relief and bad defense.
  23. Ennder
    When the Cardinals win the division (they are only 5.5 out now) he could end up with comeback player of the year while Pujols wins MVP. I'm not usually a manager type of guy but LaRussa seems to always win more than his crappy teams should so he is one of the rare ones that I think actually matter.
  24. Ennder
    Lilly pitched poorly, the rockies just didn't score runs. He walked 5 guys and probably threw as many balls as strikes, the Rockies just kept chasing stuff out of the strike zone. The Rockies also played terribly in the field when they are one of the best fielding teams in baseball. I think they had some sort of letdown after the big game the day before.
  25. Ennder
    If that is true he's out for the season.
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