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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Linebrink came in with the bases loaded and 1out in the 7th and got a double play right away. Next inning Hardy led off with a HR to give the Brewers a lead. Yost then let Linebrink hit for himself and then he came out in the 8th and gave up a few dink and dunk hits and then a solid double. I don't have a huge issue with leaving Linebrink in to hit for himself after getting out of that inning so fast, but he certainly should not have been facing Valentin at that point. Still confused about how we'd go about removing Capuano from the rotation or why we would want to, but most vents confuse me so I guess i'll live with it. Unless you want to bring up some random scrub from AAA to start instead of trying to let Capuano worth through his problems, which just means we get a pitcher who has never been good in the rotation instead of one that has been good at times.
  2. Ennder
    Given the nature of the injury there is no reason for him not to come back from it. If it was an arm or shoulder or elbow or something I could understand it. Even if we were 15 games out of 1st there wouldn't be a big reason not to bring him back.
  3. Ennder
    Given the US mortality rates I'm going to guess that quite a few people died during the game.
  4. Ennder
    All these stupid HR's are killing us.
  5. Ennder
    You do realize this thread started before Gross went on his hot streak?You do realize when a lot of the love in this thread started coming in? Yes but the fact he was asking why so many are high on Gabe Gross is because a lot of people wanted him to get more playing time all year long and a lot of people were excited he was coming back up. To try to say they are just on the Gabe Gross bandwagon because of a two game hot streak (almost every post was before last nights game) is simply not true.
  6. Ennder
    You do realize this thread started before Gross went on his hot streak?
  7. Ennder
    The league has 1832 PA's with a 3-0 count that have resulted in 1720 BB's. This is not some magical problem that only Capuano has, when you go 3-0 you walk 93.9% of the time in the NL. The league has a .800 SLG on 3-0 counts compared to a .418 as a whole. They have a .535 SLG in 2-1 counts, a .583 SLG on 2-0 counts a .610 SLG on 3-1 counts. What you are seeing in Capuano's stats are mostly normal especially looking at how small the samples are. BABIP does vary with pitch count from a .308 to a .290 (it does get to .337 with 3-0 count but thats an extremely small sample of balls in play) which is still a pretty darn tight range even though SLG and OPS are all over the place. BABIP does not vary a lot with how hard you are getting hit, ISO, AVG and SLG jump all over but BABIP still has a pretty tight range no matter what. If you have a jump of more than .010 or so compared to your expected BABIP it is going to be luck or defense at fault and in our pitchers cases my money is on defense. 30920 PA's have gone 1-0 this season out of 75, 513 total or 41% 15% have gone 2-0 5% have gone 3-0 20% have gone 2-1 9% have gone 3-1 1166 PA's of Capuano's 2942 have gone 1-0 or 40% 15% have gone 2-0 5% have gone 3-0 19% have gone 2-1 9% have gone 3-1 He's not pitching from behind any more than an average NL pitcher, he's not pitching much differently based on counts. The only thing 'wrong' with his stats are a big jump in BABIP, a LOB% that is low (this is pretty much just bad timing as it jumps around every year for every pitcher) and the fact his BB's are back to 2004/2005 levels and not 2006 levels.
  8. Ennder
    May 9th - The end of the hot streak put us at 24-10 and the top of the world. June 12th - Verlander's no hitter finish off a 10-20 stretch, rock bottom #1. July 2nd - 10-3 victory @Pit to open the series finishes off a 14-4 stretch. July 24th - Win @CIN finishes off a 8-10 stretch where we played good and bad games but managed to sit around .500. August 16th - swept by the cardinals at home, first time we are swept at home all season. 6-16 in the past 22 games, rock bottom #2 hopefully The cold streak has lasted all off 22 games which isn't all that abnormal. Like I said, it needs to stop basically today or its probably going to be too late. As for the lineup changes, most managers change their lineup constantly unless they have pretty clear cut best players for each position. The indians have used 63 different lineups and the most common was used only 14 times. The Brewers 66 lineups most common used 9 times. Mets have used 61 lineups with the most being 16 games and 2nd most 7 games. Cardinals have used 90 lineups, most common 6 times. Arizona 73 lineups, most common 9 times. Red Sox 47 lineups, most common 24. Angels 88 lineups, most common 5 games. A lot of 1st place teams have used more lineups than us and many teams haven't used the same lineup even 10 times in the season. Its just how baseball is, nothing wrong with Yost.
  9. Ennder
    If our team starts to play better we have a shot... glad he gets paid the big bucks, I could have told you that! Believe it or not this team isn't going to score 3 runs a game and give up 7 runs a game the rest of the season. Its just a cold streak and it happens to almost every team in baseball every single season. Of course with only 40ish games left to play and the division as tight as it is we better get ourselves out of this cold streak fast. Considering we go on a tough road trip after this series it better end today.
  10. Ennder
    Wow, nice abuse of logic there. You can disbelieve in BABIP and varience over a small sample until you are blue in the face, they still both exist and have been proven to be real.
  11. Ennder
    Its funny because until 11 games ago we played .500 ball over that stretch and before our .500 stretch we went 14-4. The bad games really started less than 2 weeks ago but all the I told you so people are coming out in droves to talk about how smart they are. Basically if you were screaming the team is going down a month ago you were just being a pessimist even if what you said came true. A month ago we were 18-10 in our last 28 games. Unfortunately over that same stretch the Cubs were even better and gaining ground.
  12. Ennder
    Exactly...that's why I don't get why some on this board are so eager to offer him an extension right now. The same people will probably be lambasting him if he were to go down again in 2009..."We paid $70 million for this???" Makes a lot more sense when you count 2005/2006 as one injury which it really was. He could have missed up to a full year with that injury, tried to come back and wasn't ready. That is one injury. The finger thing is just a pretty normal pitching injury that isn't a huge concern.
  13. Ennder
    The whole 15 game losing streak thing is just silly media crap. During Capuano's streak of the team going 0-15 in his starts he's had 4 of the best starts by a Brewer pitcher this season. Using the GMSCR stat here are the numbers of good starts for each pitcher, with a good start being 60+ points. Sheets - 7 Capuano - 4 Gallardo - 3 Vargas - 5 Bush - 4 Suppan - 2 3 of Capuano's 4 good starts have been during the losing streak. He has gone 7+ IP with 2 or fewer ER's four times during it, those are simply not bad starts. Yeah he's had more than his fair share of miserable starts too but its not like he hasn't pitched good games and lost too. I'd dig deeper and look into more than just BABIP here. You don't generally just have a bad BABIP and thats it. If you are throwing meatballs your ISO would go up with it for sure because they'd be hitting more HR's and doubles too for example. The smaller sample you look at the more likely its just bad luck involved, so when you start to look at something like BABIP in different counts you get less and less reliable data in general.
  14. Ennder
    Here is the specific problem with only using a small sample. 87 games into the season we were 49-38. Now why is that sample less valid to you than the 38-49 in the last 87 games? How about the fact we were 25-21 between June 13th and August 4th. All you have to do is go back in time 10 games to find a prolonged stretch of 46 games of over .500 ball. We have had a miserable two weeks and everyone is down on the team right now but its not like the only good ball we played all year was the 24-10 streak like people seem to be saying.
  15. Ennder
    Gotta nitpick that a little bit~ Our LF's have an .807 OPS so the platoon has mostly worked, though mench hasn't been as good as people had hoped. Bush has lowered his ERA a full run without any of his numbers significantly changing and has put up a 4.17 ERA in his last 15 games, only difference has been his BABIP and LOB%.
  16. Ennder
    Turns out I was rooting for the Cards, when Pujols came up with 2 on in the 8th for whatever reason I was really hoping he'd hit a HR.
  17. Ennder
    If you want to talk meaningful samples you need to talk about 162 games and even that isn't technically large enough statistcally. This team is at best an 85 win team though (my personal projection was 82 wins) in my opinion, so if you really thought the 24-10 start meant we were a 90 win team then your expectations were too high.
  18. Ennder
    I'd say its the defense and not the pitching, Capuano's stats look exactly like 2005's, Bush looks exactly like his career norm, Suppans are as good as the last 3 years. The only big difference in any of them is more singles allowed. There are only two explanations for that in my book, bad defense or bad luck and in our case its bad defense. Arizona has now made 39 plays over average, we have made 30 under average. Turn 69 hits against us into outs and I'm sure our pitching is looking a lot better than it is right now.
  19. Ennder
    Good news, I for one don't think he's going to age well so that contract will haunt the Cubs in a few years. Unfortunately Suppan's deal will be haunting us at the same time.
  20. Ennder
    May 9th - The end of the hot streak put us at 24-10 and the top of the world. June 12th - Verlander's no hitter finish off a 10-20 stretch, rock bottom #1. July 2nd - 10-3 victory @Pit to open the series finishes off a 14-4 stretch. July 24th - Win @CIN finishes off a 8-10 stretch where we played good and bad games but managed to sit around .500. August 16th - swept by the cardinals at home, first time we are swept at home all season. 6-15 in the past 21 games, rock bottom #2 hopefully. While it seems like we haven't played good ball since May 9th we did have one really good run in late June and played relatively 'normal' ball for most of July. Lets hope this is rock bottom #2 and we pull off another 14-4 type stretch. Many other teams have had stretches like this as well. LAD - 4-15 from July 24th to Aug 14th. DET - 4-14 from July 23rd to Aug 9th. CLE - 6-12 from July 26th to Aug 14th. BOS - 8-12 from June 25th to Jul 19th (they swept TB or it would have been worse!) ATL - 14-25 from May 13th to Jun 24th.
  21. Ennder
    This weekend is just huge, we are now in a situation where just hoping the Cubs suck as badly as we do isn't enough. The Cubs, the Cardinals and the Astros to some extent all have to suck in order for us to continue to play .500 ball and take the division. The season is starting to wind down and we are running out of time to turn things around.
  22. Ennder
    They are the 3rd best defensive team in the NL, we are the 2nd worst. They have been the best team in baseball in close games, we are pretty average. Their bullpen has been a strength ours hasn't. They have outperformed expectations from pretty much every standings metric more than any other team in baseball, we are pretty much at our predicted record. They have played good defense, they have a good bullpen, they have been lucky. Combination of those three things. I cannot overstate how bad our defense is, it has easily cost us 3 or 4 games in the standings and is the difference between us having a large lead in the standings and a small one. We have 8 below average defensive players on our roster and at most 4 above average and probably only 3 above average and that is not going to help us.
  23. Ennder
    If you don't believe luck/varience/defense drives ERA there is no hope for us to discuss pitching together. Its a team stat with extremely high varience which is why you shouldn't be using it to judge pitchers unless you have a good 3 years data. Three years of stats on Capuano suggests he's a pretty mediocre pitcher add in an injury and bad defense and you get a 4.50ish ERA guy most likely. A pitcher can pitch more or less exactly the same back to back years and have a 3.50 ERA one year and a 5.00 ERA the next.
  24. Ennder
    http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?t=6632 Those are some predictions from members of the forum. In my defense I copy and pasted someone elses and then just changed the names and numbers which is why I have all my MVP's etc listed for the wrong team.
  25. Ennder
    then the next time someone gets mad at someone for venting in the vent thread, I want something said to them too. because that happens a whole lot more in the vent thread than in this thread. If you disagree wtih someones silver lining then by all means criticize it, but I haven't seen a single person come into the vent thread and complain that it even exists. Its just some of the vents are so outlandishly offbase that its hard not to respond to them.
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