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Ennder

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Everything posted by Ennder

  1. Ennder
    Pena is an injury prone OF who has a sub .800 OPS playing in hitter favorable parks and has severe problems making contact with the ball. Maybe an ok deal long term but I'd have no interest in this for 2007 so I say no thanks. Personally I don't think Pena is ever going to turn into much.
  2. Ennder
    Jenkins is the best OF on the team vs righties most likely, I'm not a huge believer in Gross. I think the bottom line is there is no room for Gross AND Jenkins on this team, they are the same player and there is only one spot open for them to fill, so you trade Jenkins and give Gross his shot.
  3. Ennder
    Being over budget and being so far over budget you have to dump salary are two different things. I'm sure they'd like to dump some of the dead weight in the OF but I don't think they HAVE to dump salary either,
  4. Ennder
    I agree in general though I think part of the problem is the sample size of players they look at. Projecting a player like say Pujols is a lot easier and shouldn't be included in the comparison in my opinion. Basically any player who has been full time and on the same team for the past 3 years is a bad data point when comparing systems and since thats a large percentage of players it clouds comparison of systems greatly. The best systems do a good job of showing older players declines, how new teams will affect established players and predicting breakouts for young players. The other 50% of projections aren't really important since every system is capable of projecting established players at about the same rate.
  5. Ennder
    Just keep in mind that this is the weakest of all projection systems and thats because its not really meant to be a strong projection system, its a very basic baseline type system. As for the pitching results on Chone's site. Until he looks at a stat other than ERA his correlations are useless since ERA has such a huge variance to begin with. He at least needs to compare some sort of component ERA instead to judge the systems.
  6. Ennder
    The problem with that is that ERA doesn't work nearly as well for individual pitchers. I don't expect a 5+ ERA out of Vargas with his move. I do expect a 4+ ERA out of Suppan with his, in fact I expect around a 4.50 for him. I'd be really iffy about projecting anything for Villanueva based off of that limited sample. I do like the chart though, it does really show the extra depth Suppan gives us. Almost every team has at least one starter go down each year and when that happens to us this year we won't take a huge hit in production unless its Sheets.
  7. Ennder
    Hall was one of the worst baserunners in baseball last year, so not sure I think his speed is a huge advantage on the basepaths.
  8. Ennder
    He's regressing for sure but most of last year was a result of poor defense and bad luck. He's certainly breaking down physically though and in games where his back hurts he tends to get shelled. Its certainly a risky move but I think calling him trash is overdoing it a bit.
  9. Ennder
    My guess is the lineup ends up something like this. Vs righties Weeks Estrada Fielder Hall Jenkins Hart Koskie Hardy/Counsell Pitcher Vs lefties Weeks Hardy Fielder Hall Mench Hart Graffanino Miller Pitcher Clark is the odd man out so we just dump him. Gross backs up Hall in CF sometimes against righties. Mench backs up Jenkins against lefties. Unfortunately I don't think we'll get rid of Graffanino so he's the 3B vs lefties. I'd prefer we trade Jenkins since it makes the most sense letting Gross start instead while not losing Mench who would be a great help against lefties which are going to give us trouble, especially if Weeks or Hardy gets hurt. If we do pick up a new player I'd think it would have to be an OF and a RP for a better RP or something like that. We don't have many sure things in the bullpen but we have a lot of could be depth so its hard to add someone.
  10. Ennder
    The white sox went to the world series because of their pitching, they offense was average to below average and that was partially because of pods. The fact he did so well in the post season partially vindcated them though.
  11. Ennder
    If history repeats itself they won't go up next year and the marginal player contracts may even go down a little. It really depends on the people on the market though.
  12. Ennder
    www.hardballtimes.com/mai...ur-dreams/ According to that article Suppan will be worth 2, maybe 3 wins on the year compared to a replacement level pitcher. I pretty much agree with that quote from the article. Do we think that Suppan's 2 or maybe 3 wins added are what will push the Brewers into the playoff picture? Personally I think it could be and the signing wouldn't be that bad, more importantly I think every year for the next 3-4 years we'll probably be that team on the cusp of the playoff picture and 2-3 wins could be the difference.
  13. Ennder
    Probably because Gwynn hasn't even been able to manage to hold a .700 OPS in the minors and isn't as fast as taveras. He's pretty much inferior in every way except maybe defense. I don't raelly care or expect to get Taveraas, but he certainly is a better option than Gwynn.
  14. Ennder
    Actually i didn't see that, thanks for the link.
  15. Ennder
    I just always find it interesting when someone compares projection systems. lanaheimangelfan.blogspot...stuff.html The r's for hitters OPS were... Pecota .736 Shandler .702 James .685 ZIPs .684 Chone .677 Marcel .664 Need more details but he did mention ZiPs was #1 for pitching and Pecota #2, but he didn't state what stat he was looking at.
  16. Ennder
    I think people are jumping the gun a bit on Taveras. In 1981 minor league AB's he posted a .372 OPS and a .753 OPS. Now that won't directly translate to the majors but it does show that he has some room to improve. After the all star break last year he posted a .365 OBP and a .740 OPS which are pretty close to in line with the minor league stats. I don't know enough about him to judge his defensive play but I think there is more upside here than people are seeing. He still doesn't walk enough so his OBP is going to depend on AVG too much but again he showed better discipline in the minors, there is still a chance for him to be a consistent .350-.370 OBP leadoff hitter which has value if his defense is solid in CF.
  17. Ennder
    Colon and Cy Young don't deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence, it was a joke that he won.
  18. Ennder
    I strongly disagree with this. Bush has been better than Suppan for 3 years in a row even if one of those seasons was a partial year. The only thing Suppan has on Bush is that he played on a better team with an amazing defense. Suppan would be the clear #4 starter on the team in my opinion though he'd be the #3 on most teams and would even be the #2 on a couple of teams. However adding Suppan to the mix would give the Brewers the best or 2nd best starting rotation in the NL.
  19. Ennder
    Nice way to ignore the 5.83 ERA, 1.62 WHIP pre all-star break. Judging a pitcher by a single season is silly, judging them by half a season is utterly useless which is why we need another starter in the first place. If you want to judge a pitcher by half a season than Villanueva is our man. This is part of why Cardinals pitchers tend to balloon in ERA when they change teams, this and the fact that STL is the best defensive team in the NL. If anything this hurts Suppan's case. Anyway I'm happy enough if we sign him, I like the depth he gives us in our rotation. I won't be happy with the final dollar amount but its not my money and I don't think he'll be overpayed to the point where it kills the future of the team. Plus I'm sure he would be easy to trade if need be in the future, teams are starving for pitching.
  20. Ennder
    I'm not a huge fan of park adjusted stats because they treat all types of pitchers the same. they just don't have the data to break it down into this park favors that pitcher and not the other. An example would be san diego which favors fly ball pitchers because quite simply its hard to hit HR's there. However it doesn't really favor ground ball pitchers but at the same time it has huge gaps to cover in the OF so any pitcher who gives up a lot of gap hits it has a negative effect on(this is why loretta did so well there) etc. There is simply not enough data to give an honest park adjustment. Having said that I think Suppan is a pretty average pitcher, I ammended my statement saying he was a #4/#5 and he's probably really a #3/#4. I do think his past few years have shown regression when you take into account the defenses behind him though. I honestly think he'd be at best the Brewers 4th best starter and could be the #5 if Vargas improves.
  21. Ennder
    The past 3 years Suppan has thrown 3.8, 3.6, 3.7 pitches per PA. Vargas has thrown 3.8 the past 2 years. Sheets has thrown 3.8, 3.6, 3.7 Doug Davis has thrown 3.9, 3.9, 3.9 Randy Johnson 3.8, 3.7, 3.8 Zito - 4.0, 4.0, 3.9 The point is, I don't think the K's drive it up nearly as much as walks do. They seem to be the limiting factor on how deep into the count things go. The other factor is how many total batters are faced and with that high WHIP suppan faces a lot of batters.
  22. Ennder
    Suppan=Vargas last year would be something I could agree with, I do agree that Vargas has to show that he can pitch as well as last year or preferablly better before really comparing them and Suppan is a safer bet, though Vargas has a lot more upside.
  23. Ennder
    There it is... ERA, thats what it comes down to. You guys are buying into the ERA and I'm looking at all of his other stats which don't support the ERA.. there is a simple reason for it, the cardinals have beent he best defensive team in the NL and make their pitchers look better than they are. 2003 was Suppan's best year and he put up a respectable 4.19 ERA and his stats actually mostly support that ERA. The last 3 years he has regressed each year but it doesn't always show in the ERA. I guess we'll agree to disagree and we'll see how his ERA looks for another team, in my opinion it will be jumping over 4.50 just like his FIP's suggest. www.hardballtimes.com/tht...e_filter[0]=2&orderBy=fip&direction=ASC&page=1 That is a link to pitchers sorted by FIP and I in general agree with where he belongs on that list, right around the Vargas, Maholm, Lieber types. Those guys to me are #4 SP in the NL however now that I look it I guess those are actually #3's once you take out the partial year guys like Sheets.
  24. Ennder
    He was not an over .500 pitcher until he came to STL a team who won 100 games twice while he was there leading to his 16 win years. I don't know how else to look at his career stats when it comes to wins. He's never had a WHIP under 1.30 in his career and only once has it been under 1.36. He's never had more than a 128 K's in a year and consistantly is in the 110 range. I don't see how you look at his career and say he has pitched very very well, he has been average or worse his entire career. The only thing that stops him from looking like a pure #4/#5 starter is the past 3 years which as I already stated are heavily influenced by STL's defense. He'll actually be 32 at the start of next year and while yeah he may decline slowly I just don't see how you think having him signed to a long term contract making him the 2nd highest payed player on the team is a good thing. I'd much much rather have capuano and bush than suppan long term and I'd personally rather keep the cash to give to them when its time. To take it one step further Vargas was better than Suppan last year in every way except HR's allowed and the fact Suppan is an extreme groundball pitcher which is generally a good thing, he's younger, has a more powerful arm and showed the same control as Suppan last year. It would not surprise me one bit to see him come out and outpitch Suppan this year making Suppan our #5 starter. I just don't get the love for him.
  25. Ennder
    So you are pointing at the fact he was on a team that won a lot of games and he pitched well 2 games in the WS and saying that makes him good? I don't understand that logic at all. I guess that makes him better than Sheets in your book? Take him away from the almost all gold glove calibre defense in STL and he's a 4.50+ ERA guy easily. His K rate is horrible, his HR rate is normal, his WHIP is high. The only positive thing about him is his groundball rate.. to me that just isn't enough. He's 31 years old so he's not going to get any better either. I guess all I can do is hope and pray someone makes him a better offer, I don't want to see him on the Brewers for more than $7-8M a year for what is a back of the rotation pitcher without much upside.
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