sheetskout

Porcello is kind of an odd-contract situation. Remember, he was given a Major League deal out of high-school; a contract which ran it's course in 2012. I believe he is "Super-Two" arby eligible now which means he'll have arby years through 2015. He's estimated to earn around 4.5 million in 2013. I would bet Porcello would require a young pitcher in return when taking the Tigers current system into account. I'm not sure I'd ante up a Peralta or Thornburg for him, but he might be able to be had with a Jungmann-type.

I'm not saying he can't sustain his current performance level, but he's made 35 starts in MLB. This isn't a sample we should be basing anything off of. Especially since most analysts agree that his stuff is sub-par. I wish him all the success in the world, but Estrada sustaining #2 stuff throughout a full season with the low-innings that has been put on his arm isn't probable to me. I am in no way saying we should ante-up for Dempster though.

Gomez isn't going to get us any worthwhile pitching that would push another out of the rotation. Bourn would be a huge waste of money. Although he's elite in CF, so is Gomez. And he doesn't provide us with anything else over Gomez except a larger paycheck and less short/medium-term flexibility. I like Michael, but it's just not a good fit.

Frankly I would be pretty shocked if Narveson wasn't in the rotation on purely economic, service-time-related issues. The other three are going to have to push him out of the rotation this Spring in my opinion.

Personally, I would be thrilled to get Porcello and a move to the NL may put him back on track to the stardom we thought he'd achieve already. Still just 23, I maintain that Porcello will be an all-star one day "He set career highs in both strikeout rate and ground ball rate in 2012," Cameron wrote, "but even more encouragingly, his velocity jumped nearly 2 mph, and he was regularly topping out at 95 for the first time as a big leaguer." -Dave Cameron http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2012/11/fangraphs_analysis_detroit_tig.html

"I still think he ends up at second base in the long run, where he could be outstanding with the glove. Offensively, without any Triple-A time there's a good chance he'll have some adjustment issues in the majors...." -John Sickels http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/7/26/3189143/los-angeles-angels-promote-jean-segura "Segura presents as a bull in a china shop, muscling his way through at bats and defensive plays without refinement." -Mike Newman http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/milwaukee-brewers-shortstop-jean-segura-fangraphs-scouting-report-video/ " Segura has been playing shortstop all season, but has made 17 errors and Texas League sources see him as a second baseman long-term. His arm is good enough for third base, but it seems doubtful that he'll have the home run power normally considered necessary for the position." -Sickels, again but in-person observations http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/6/26/3118576/minor-league-prospect-notes-june-26-2012 And Baseball America never had him envisioned as the Angels' starting shortstop. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2012/2612845.html And from Saturday's Winter League Report: "Mini-slump for Jean Segura, 0-for-4 with an error - 9th error in 30 DWL games, that ratio won't fly at the big league level in 2013. Even after a 2-for-17 stretch, Segura's bat is only "down" to .325." viewtopic.php?f=64&t=28755&start=140 "Segura exclusively played second base until 2011 when the organization moved him to shortstop. He’s currently fringe-average at the position but he has the potential to develop into an average defensive shortstop." -Marc Hulet http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/jean-segura-gets-the-call-from-angels/ Now, the guy may have improved during his 43 games in the majors. You don't see if from a statistical-perspective though. The league average in the NL for total chances among shortstops is roughly 550 over the course of a normal SS season. Give Segura that and he EASILY leads the National League in errors at SS. ((550/165)x10=33.33 errors per season at his current error rate) Starlin Castro led the league with 27 and he had 758 total chances at SS. This projection is assuming Segura plays a modest season at 130 games as a second year player. He plays all season? 40 errors? Now, how is this incredibly unfair? Statistically, I'm actually floating the numbers in HIS direction. And we haven't even spoken about any injury possibilities...... Still don't think Gonzalez should be an immediate priority for the Brewers?

Or C. That the Brewers understand the mentoring-role Gonzalez and are willing to pay for that in addition to whatever offensive output bonus he would provide. Also, I'll state this one more time. It seems many people are convinced that Segura will stick at SS. To me at least, this is based on a combination of true optimism (because you want it to come true - a form of homerism) and (2) the small sample-size of decent-to-above-average fielding he provided in 43 games last season (165 total chances in which he made 10 errors). I'm in no way saying he won't, but let's remember that there hasn't been a professional scout alive who has covered Segura and hasn't had some doubt about his glove. In addition, most scouts were automatically scouting him for second base. Most scouts has already written him off at SS (even though the Angels continued to play him there). Answer (A) from should apply to everyone. There shouldn't be anyone out there that doesn't have some worry about Segura and his ability to stick at SS. If there is someone out there that's 100% convinced, then I'm going to bet you may have some homerism in you because you're not looking at this from a statistical, or a scouting perspective. Frankly, we may need to sign Gonzalez more than anyone out there. Because you think the market for starters and relievers is scarce?.....

Although I agree with you that Hart is semi-easily-replaceable (among established MLB regulars) I think you're discounting what actually goes into making a player a full-time-regular. It isn't merely as simple as cycling another one into the position. First, there are certain intangibles of getting a young player up-to-speed to play everyday in MLB. Most players don't come up to MLB and start playing close to their talent-peak. Hell, it took Rickie two years to get comfortable in Major League Baseball. There are also 40-man roster concerns, other concerns regarding service time, and that's if the young-player doesn't get affected by the daily rigors of baseball life. If you're solution is to start jockeying people into the position on a more rapid-fire basis until one fills the need then I'm not so sure I'm down with that. There is a reason that Major League veterans get paid what they do today (although the exorbitant salaries oddly disguise this), because through experience they have dealt with rookie-level issues and know how to live like a Major League baseball player. It isn't as simple as holding a tryout for the new first baseman.

And Grilli is about to be off the market too... http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/pirates-to-sign-jason-grilli.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29

I'm going to guess that was sarcasm. Michael Young is the quintessential-professional hitter. And they jerked him around for years. Personally I wish him all the happiness in the world in Philly.

Agreed. Gallardo shouldn't be dealt unless a deal absolutely blew us away. He's not a true ace, but very few are. He's in that second tier of strikeout pitchers and besides the freak injury he doesn't have an injury history. This is what you strive for, or what you should strive for in my opinion when building a team. A reliable, power-pitcher that has experience before coming into his prime. Gallardo is the last person we should deal.

Oakland did something that happens once every five years, or really since they-themselves did it last. The Athletics won 94 games without a 90 RBI hitter, a 200 IP pitcher, a 30-save closer, or a hitter with more than 150 hits. This was the ultimate seasonal anomaly and a scenario that shouldn't be accepted as the norm entering a season. That being said, what the Brewers need out of Fiers, Thornburg, Peralta, Rogers (or maybe one of the others) is enough to be a #2/3, without dealing for a FA or trading Hart. It's important simply on the basis that we need those innings eaten up. Frankly, right now I don't believe this to be probable which is why it's imperative we get another starter.

The Brewers have been gracious on approving that Gonzalez should look for a full-time job first and leaving that door open. I like the way they've handled this so far. But, ultimately I don't think the job is out there with the injury question mark. I'm not sure we could find a better mentor for Segura anywhere. If the Brewers are committed to playing Segura at SS I'd be happy if they brought Gonzalez back on a one-year even if he only had about 100 PA's.

I just don't see how the money is there even with clearing Gomez (would clear about 6 million adjusted for his estimated arby ruling). This all kind of hinges on whether you think the probability is good that Attanasio pushes the payroll past ninety-million dollars for 2013. And from what's been released in the media it looks like they prefer to have it around 80 million. We know we need a reliever regardless and I'd certainly feel more comfortable with Alex Gonzalez back. With another starter at the prices they are getting they will probably have to push to 85 million. There's just too much competition and payroll restrictions to make me believe in this. And for the record, signing the other needs is smarter than bringing in Hamilton who may get us some more offense we might not need.

While I agree it was boosted during that time, Derek Holland was a rather big prospect out of the minor leagues. Expectations have pretty-much always been high on Holland.

Brewers talking Gorzelanny? http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/nl-central-notes-.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29 Don't judge quickly, check his stats again. It's really not bad if the price is right. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weeksri01.shtml

Between Stewart (maybe), Vitters, and now this, it's not looking good. Makes me love Aramis Ramirez even more for all the obvious, ironic reasons.

If the Dodgers offered me Gordon and Lee for Weeks I would smile, kindly accept, and never look back. And I like Rickie.

Most scouts and baseball insiders would disagree with this. In fact, most would state it's more probable that Segura moves to 2B once Weeks is gone. It's definitely not moot. I'm glad you're excited about his play in the limited action we saw him in last season, but Segura never profiled as a good-fielding shortstop and at best right now he's roughly average. That's at age 22 before any sort of skills decline in his late 20's.

I'm down with Derek Holland. Has some upside and is under control. We could do a lot worse.

The issue of leaving SS solely to a converted second-baseman with 45 games of MLB experience who's actually the senior there as Bianchi has 33 games. (And whether or not to re-sign Alex Gonzalez) I realize Segura is the starter, but this could go downhill really quickly and I'm sure it's on Melvin's mind. At least I hope so.

Factor in arbitration. Axford, Estrada, Narvesson (he'll see an increase based on service time too) will see raises as will Gomez in his last year. Gomez will see a bigger increase obviously based on performance. That's without addressing the issue at SS, signing at least one more serviceable reliever, and another starting pitcher. Not to mention bench-depth if any. Meanwhile the front office stated that they want to take down the payroll from a record opening day $98 million down to around 80. I bet if we're lucky, we see $85 million. There isn't enough money for Hamilton at what he's asking. And right now I'm wondering if there's enough money to address the needs on this team at the level we've come to expect in the last few years. I hope I'm wrong.

I've followed Wil Myers for years. There is no way at this point that I'm trading a multiple-200k-a-year for a guy who MAY be an above average bat that really can't play any other position other than a corner outfield spot. 200inning, 200k pitchers are the equivalent of baseball gold.

I was really, REALLY hoping the Brewers would make a bid for Haren. The Nationals now are reporting they are out on Burnett after this signing (or it appears unlikely).

Brewers apparently called on Mark Lowe sometime this morning or late yesterday. http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blog/mlbbuzz/article/sources_mark_lowe_of_interest_to_at_least_5_clubs/12358933