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nate82

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Everything posted by nate82

  1. nate82
    Yes that is the general rule but supply is not increasing in this scenario it is decreasing while demand is staying the same so the price will increase.
  2. nate82
    There are 5 big market teams and you could even add in Toronto as a big market team that would be in on Prince. There are 5 teams that will be in a need for a 1B/DH type of a player and there will only be 2 players to fill those needs. If you have all 5 of those teams bidding on those 2 players that means it is a win win situation for the player. Prince is not going to be asking why Boras didn't take that $100 million he will be celebrating with him for not taking it. At the minimum I see Prince getting $140 for about 6 or 7 years I don't see why Prince would be asking Boras why he didn't take that $100 million. You are completely undervaluing the market next year. Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, Orioles, Nationals, and Toronto all will be bidding on 2 players that makes the situation great for Prince and there is no way any of those teams bid under $100 million for Prince.
  3. nate82
    Supply and demand. There will be a lot of teams that have money who will be bidding on Pujols if he isn't extended, Gonzalez, and Fielder. If Pujols is extended it leaves about 5 or 6 teams with openings at 1B/DH to bid on both Prince and Gonzalez. These are big market teams don't let the Orioles and Nationals fool you in thinking that they are small market teams they are not. Both the Nationals and the Orioles offered deals to Teixeira similar to what the Yankees offered a little bit less money but rather similar. Don't forget the Cubs will have a lot of money coming off the books next year and they would definitely be in on Prince or Gonzalez. It really is the perfect timing for Prince and Gonzalez with 5 big market teams with a lot of money available to spend. You will have the Dodgers, Red Sox, Nationals, Orioles, and the Cubs all bidding on possibly three players maybe only two.
  4. nate82
    That won't hurt Fielder it will only help him.
  5. nate82
    Prince is going to get a deal similar to Howard's contract but with more years added onto that contract. You will have a lot of teams bidding on Prince and those teams are going to have a lot of money to spend. The teams that will be bidding on Prince in 2011 will be the Dodgers, Red Sox, Orioles, Nationals, Cubs, White Sox, and the Jays. You could even add in the Cardinals as being a team that maybe looking at Prince to replace Pujols if a deal doesn't get done there. There will be three players on the market for those teams to sign that will be the big prizes. What Prince does in 2010 will not have as much of an impact on his contract that he will receive. With there only being Gonzalez, Prince, and Pujols on the market after the 2011 season I don't see how Prince doesn't get a huge payday. If the Cardinals resign Pujols then Prince and Gonzalez will be getting contracts similar to what Howard got and probably a little bit more. Prince is going to receive a deal at something like $170m and 7 years from a team. That completely blows Milwaukee out of the market for Prince and I believe Prince would take that deal and be a DH at Boston, Baltimore, or Toronto. I am not sure the Cubs, White Sox, or the Nationals would be able to match that. I think the Nationals may try and match that depending on what they give Pena this off season that is though I only see Pena getting a 1-year deal.
  6. nate82
    Well if Milwaukee is the only team that offers him the chance to play 1B which is what Dunn wants to do then I don't see him turning down an option of playing 1B over just being a DH because he doesn't like the stadium.
  7. nate82
    I wouldn't count on that. The same thing with Farve and the Packers will happen with Jeter and the Yankees. Most fans will get over it and move on while others will never let it go.
  8. nate82
    If we are trading Fielder and Jeffress for something like Floyd and Beckham I want Melvin fired yesterday for doing a deal as stupid as that. Jeffress shouldn't even be placed into a trade that doesn't bring back someone like a Greinke. If you are trading Jeffress just to get another player like Beckham I like Beckham but he is not worth Jeffress at this time. If Beckham was on the Brewers do you think the White Sox would trade Jeffress for Beckham? No way do they do that deal. You would have to add more to the deal to get Jeffress. I believe everyone is extremely discounting Prince's value. I would expect the Brewers to get a return that is comparable to the one that the Rockies got for Holliday. I don't think the Brewers will get a top #1 or #2 type of a pitcher but they may get someone like Carlos Gonzalez in a trade along with a #4 or a #5 type of a pitcher and some lower level pitchers. If the Brewers can not get a return of at least what the Rockies got for Holliday then the Brewers should just hold onto Prince and take the draft pick or picks for losing Prince. I still do not understand the fascination with Floyd. There is no way that he alone would get Prince in a trade let alone the Brewers having to add in Jeffress to get Beckham. That is just crazy talk someone is either extremely down on Prince's trade value or extremely high on Floyd.
  9. nate82
    That is a horrible deal for the Brewers. I wouldn't trade Fielder for Floyd let alone put more in the deal. If all Melvin can get for Fielder is Floyd then I would rather take the picks than Floyd.
  10. nate82
    A Fielder, McGehee, or Gamel trade will not happen until at least the winter meetings.
  11. nate82
    You are going to have to run multiple virus, malware, and spyware software. I suggest start using these two: http://www.eset.com/ and http://usa.kaspersky.com/. As for spyware and malware you already have one of the programs I would suggest. Spyware doctor is good for getting rid of some spyware on your computer http://download.cnet.com/...000-8022_4-10377263.html The best option though is to reinstall Windows. I know it sucks that you are going to lose all of that information. If you need to make a backup of some important files I would place them on a CD or on an external hard drive if you have one. But the best option really is to just reinstall windows.
  12. nate82
    If you would have read on further I discussed that. I don't see Jeffress developing a second or a third pitch. The same problem that Joba had in developing a good second or third pitch. Normally guys who can not develop a decent third pitch are either a back of the end rotation guy or a bullpen guy. Jeffress is in the same boat as Joba was in when he came up with the Yankees. The change in velocity comes from his change from the bullpen to the starting rotation you just can not throw as hard as you want when you are expected to go multiple innings. The velocity is going to go down when going from the bullpen to being a starter. I wish you wouldn't put words into my mouth that I didn't even say. It is purely based on Jeffress that I saw a few years ago and what I saw this year and the same with Joba it has absolutely nothing to do with Jeffress or Joba being in the bullpen. The bullpen just maybe the best spot for them depending on factors like the player developing a 2nd and a 3rd pitch.
  13. nate82
    No it is based on seeing both. They both rely on a hard fastball which they would not be able to throw as hard when they are a starter thus they are better as RP. This is not a knock against either of the players. The Yankees thought Joba was a starter and when his velocity had to come down and he had to develop a third pitch which he never really developed fully he became a bullpen guy. I see the same thing happening with Jeffress and until Jeffress develops a third pitch the Joba comparison is appropriate. Not a knock against each player just how I see them being. Rivera started out as a starter and was converted to the bullpen and look at what he has done with his career. Though at one time Joba had a very high ceiling as a starter like Jeffress. These two are very comparable who knows maybe Jeffress will pan out as a starter where Joba failed. But if Jeffress ceiling is Joba that is still a great prospect and Jeffress will be very valuable to the Brewers.
  14. nate82
    I don't think the Yankees would accept that deal and I think the Yankees would wait on to see if Pettite retires before they make a trade. Also Burnett has a limited no trade clause in his contract and I am going to assume Milwaukee is on that list that he can block. As for Joba the Brewers already have the next Joba in Jeffress.
  15. nate82
    If the Brewers acquire Beckham and Floyd that would be great but where would Beckham play assuming Weeks doesn't get traded. Would Beckham be sent to AAA? What do you do with Lawrie then? Not a bad place to be in because I believe the Brewers could flip Beckham or Weeks for a #3 type of a pitcher or trade Lawrie for a #1 or #2 type pitcher.
  16. nate82
    I don't see the Brewers having anything that the Rays would want. They are set at 2B and we don't have a SS to give them either which is what they would need assuming they trade Bartlett it would have to be a 3-team deal to land Shields or Garza. The Rays are set at pitching though they could use a closer type of a pitcher maybe they would bite on Jeffress though that wouldn't be a enough for Garza or Shields. They may take a Cain, Jeffress, and a PTBNL for Garza or Shields and I am not sure that really improves the team at all for the Brewers. You would be relying on Gomez to have a good year in that scenario. I believe the best option is going hard after Greinke and see what the Royals want for him.
  17. nate82
    Either way it is a theoretical value and not a true value. It is meant to be a comparison of what you can expect the player to get in a free market. There are other factors that it doesn't take into consideration like the number of 2B in the FA market or the number of FA available for a trade. All of those factors could decrease a players value. There are other things that will increase a players value like in Jeter's case where he is more valuable to the Yankees than to any other team in baseball. Jeter's value to the Yankees can't really be measured and thus he can sign for a higher price than what the market would give him. Pujols will never make the amount that his dollar value says since it is a theoretical value. If every team had the payroll of the Yankees then yes Pujols would probably be able to sign to his theoretical value. Since the market is not perfect there is no way any player would be able to sign a contract that would pay them their theoretical value. Their actual value will be a lot lower than what they could make based on a perfect market where every team can spend as much as the next team.
  18. nate82
    The dollar stat that you can find on Fangraphs is not the price that a team should be paying for the player it is the amount of value that the player is giving to that team. Like all economics stats it is based on a perfect market and only is theoretical so will Weeks get paid what the dollar amount is? No he won't get paid that amount but I think he will get close to that amount or maybe even more depending on the market for his services. I think the amount that the Marlins were going to give Uggla is about where Weeks value is at. Uggla and Weeks are very comparable in talent level though Weeks is younger than Uggla. I believe Weeks is going to be looking at getting a contract similar to what was offered to Uggla. To get Weeks extended it is more than likely going to cost the Brewers anywhere near $12-15m a year something like a 5-year $60m deal is what I believe would be close to what Weeks will be looking at. Taking his injuries into consideration I think the Brewers will offer him something like 5-years and $50m with the 5th year being a team option year with a buyout around $2-5m. I predict Weeks won't get the extension he wants and will go the free agent route. The Brewers really do not have to budge from their spot since they already have a replacement nearly ready to go in Lawrie. Weeks really matches up better with Phillips than Uggla though so I believe a contract of 5-years at $45m would be a fair deal and would be near his true market value.
  19. nate82
    I agree with this. The one exception to this would be if you were getting a return like the Rays got for Young. If you are receiving a prospect who can step into your rotation right away then you do that deal. I don't believe the Padres have the players who are like that.
  20. nate82
    http://sports.yahoo.com/m...=ti-hotstovecolumn110910 It is on the bottom but it does state that the White Sox will be shopping Beckham around according to some baseball executives.
  21. nate82
    It looks as though Beckham is available also I am not sure the Brewers or the White Sox would put him in the deal or would want him.
  22. nate82
    With the Marlins trading Maybin to the Padres. I was thinking that trading Gomez to the Marlins for Sanchez maybe a possibility. I believe the Brewers would have to add someone else into the mix if they were to get Sanchez in return and maybe not. Maybe something like Villanueva/Coffey and Gomez for Sanchez could be a possibility. Though I think the Brewers would have to add in something more than Villanueva/Coffey maybe someone like Butler.
  23. nate82
    It wouldn't be fair for the Sox but they would have to come up with the best offer to get Braun. If Braun would be available in the trade market it wouldn't just be the Red Sox bidding on Braun it would be practically the whole league bidding for Braun. So something like Lester and Buchholz would probably be the price that it would cost the Red Sox. Is that price logical no it is far from being logical but when you have multiple teams bidding on one player the price is only going to increase. How high the price will be set by the teams bidding for Braun. If the Brewers could get more out of a trade for Braun and the Red Sox were only offering Lester while other teams are offering more players at the same level of play as Lester then it would be foolish for the Brewers to accept that trade and not the others.
  24. nate82
    So they have to start the first two weeks on the road then. Not a real big problem.
  25. nate82
    Why not just shorten spring training by a month and start in the middle of March and then end the season in August. This would also shorten the season to something around 130-150 games. If the regular season ends in August that gives you enough time to play all the playoff games in September and with the World Series ending in the second week of October as the worst case scenario. I love the idea of expanding the playoffs but the season would either have to start earlier or be shortened for that to happen. I would love for the season to start a little bit earlier and have the season shortened by 10 or 20 games.
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