kramnoj

All you doubters will be proven wrong. It's just a matter of time. This thread is about the 2010 batting order. Do you think Escobar is suddenly going to develop patience and hit 18 HR this year?

Instead of dealing for a fantastic pitcher like Vazquez or taking a chance on a true power arm in Morrow he would rather overspend on a decent but not great pitcher like Wolf If you have to use hyperbole like this, you don't have a point worth making. How could you define Vazquez as fantastic and Wolf decent? Now we are most likely tapped out financially If Melvin had gone after Vazquez instead of Wolf, he would have spent more money for 2010 and would have had to give up talent. All for a year when the Brewers hope to be competitive, but aren't in a year where they should really think about going for it.

Did he suffer a setback since the end of the year? He came back at the end of last year and threw 9 IP in 6 games. http://www.baseball-refer...ayer.cgi?id=capuan001chr I believe he is signed to a minor league deal and will be invited to spring training.

Players do not perform better in contract years than they otherwise would be expected to. Players as a whole? No. Have some players done so? Obviously. Players aren't random number generators. Their performance will vary based on all kinds of factors. It would be strange to believe that some humans don't put forth full effort 100% of the time and will seek to improve themselves when a huge payout could be a reward.

I've been thinking about a restructure of Suppan's contract. I don't really feel he should be bought out, as he at this time appears to be better depth than what is currently available. But if it came to be January, and a decent pitcher could be had for $5-6M, it would be disappointing if the Brewers couldn't be in on it. At this point, of course, its just a dream, so I don't know what would be reasonable. Suppan is guaranteed $14.5M, what if the Brewers paid it out as $16M over 4 years (adjust as necessary for NPV, that was just a guess). Or it might be better to just split it up over the next year or three. I don't think it's impossible for the Brewers to find themselves in the next couple of years where they won't be able to spend their budget, because it would be tough to spend it wisely.

Here is a blog that I remember from after the 07 season when Cameron was signed. http://skyking162.com/2008/01/mike-cameron-savior/ Based on data available at that time, Hall was considederd a poor defender, -5 to -15. My recollection was that Hall started poorly and started to improve. I believe UZR was using a different data set at the time, which is why some of us have memories of Hall rating poorly, despite now showing a positive rating for that season (that of course provides reason for some to doubt def metrics, but that's another topic). IIRC, the Brewers had 3 positions where they ranked last defensively for 2007, CF, 3B and 2B. One of the ways that Melvin tried to improve the 2008 pitching was by improving the defense.

Why would Gallardo be projected at only 145 innings in those CHONE numbers? I think the people who run projections would like to run them without IP if they wouldn't get ripped to shreds for doing so. It would be far too difficult for the people who do these to build a system that knows every pitchers injury history and include that in their projections. So the projection sees Gallardo with 110 IP in the majors in 2007 and 24 IP in 2008 and spits out a number that isn't realistic. I would imagine it would also know the IP in the minor leagues. Then again, there is I think some evidence that injury prone players exist, and while we shouldn't assume that Gallardo is injury prone, how does one build a system to judge that?

Here's hoping Cam helps the Sawx to the playoffs and beyond. I don't know if this speculation belongs here, or deserves its own thread. I figure it somewhat revolves around Cameron, just because he was the pivotal decision that had to be made regarding salary and how much one believes a run is a run. We knew Cam had said that he was willing to make a sacrifice to stay with the Brewers. He was willing to take a paycut, but we don't know if he would have only accepted a one year deal. So, you're the GM of the Brewers, and you can't get the SP you want out of Hardy and you have the option to bring back Cam at a reduced salary, or let him go and invest that money into a SP. You can spend the same amount of money that Melvin has spent so far this year. What could have been, in this otherworld? So far Melvin has spent (for 2010 only) Wolf $9.25M Hoffman $8M Hawkins $3.5M Zaun $2.15M Counsell $2.1M Vargas $1M? I get about $26M. Given what we know so far, what would you have done differently? I think I would have brought back Cameron for $8M. I think I would have taken Bowden for Hardy, if that was the best deal available (based on what we heard). I was happy with keeping Hoffman, and I was happy with Wolf, but fully realize that 2012 could easily hurt. That means that I would have spent my money with those 3 players, and would have and Lucroy/Kotteras at C. I would have a better offense, but a weaker bullpen, and less reliability at UI (figure Hurricane for that). That's my strategy with a couple of minutes of thought but not running numbers. Edit: I wrote that the decision would have to be Cameron or a SP, but that is obviously wrong, as Cameron plus a SP could have been done, if sacrifices were made elsewhere. The main point stands, would you like Cameron at around $8M, or money spent in other areas?

I know it will be a while before everyone realizes it, but Escobar is potentially the 3rd best hitter How are you defining hitter, and when do you think that potential will be realized?

I've probably mentioned it here before, but Trenni and Drew on the DList said that nobody enjoyed being a big leaguer and a Brewer more than McClung. If he doesn't get a gig elsewhere, I'd love to see him come back on a minor league invite.

Do any of the modelers really try to do accurate projections for IP, or is it just the normal calculations for the other pitching stats? If a modeler really wanted to do accurate projections for IP, they would have to collect all known information about pitchers, what injuries they suffered, what treatment they went through, and then compare that to all similar pitchers who have had that in the past, and then adjust for new advancements in medicine. IP in projections aren't really meaningful. Wolf should be projected to pitch based on the last two years that he has been healthy, and then throw in whatever adjustments that are needed for the random injuries that can affect a pitcher in his 30s.

Millwood had a good ERA this past year, but it was poor the previous two years, and it was probably dure more to luck last year than something we should anticipate happening again.

Beside the Mets, who showed any interest at all in him? To me, that says a lot. It only takes one other bidder to drive up the price. As far as other teams, how many teams will be spending signficant money this year?

Harden is younger, throws harder, has a better track record, and would have came much cheaper. Wolf was a better pitcher last year, and had significantly more IP. It's also not clear how much cheaper Harden would be. We don't know what the buyout is if Harden isn't renewed. If Harden doesn't pitch well this year, he may come relatively close to what Wolf will make this year. If Harden pitches well and is renewed, he makes more than Wolf next year. The third year for Wolf is of course what may be a deal killer.

Both are/were north of age 30 coming off arguably career seasons, and basically unwanted by their old teams. Most FA are north of 30, so that isn't a meaningful distinction. As far as the Dodgers not wanting Wolf, that says more about the Dodgers and their current situation than it says about Wolf. It seems in both cases, the Brewers were bidding against themselves. This is true, but not extremely so. The Mets wanted Wolf, but didn't want to go to 3 years. As far as we know, the Brewers wanted the deal to be 3/$27M and no one offered more, but Wolf wouldn't sign at that price, so the deal went up a few million more. If Wolf was truly the "2nd best free agent pitcher", don't you think that a big market team would have pushed harder for him? How many big market teams need to spend money on pitching this year? Lackey and Halladay are going to be the targets of big market teams. The Mets have too many holes to fill, and Wolf would have eaten up a significant portion of their remaining budget.

I'm just trying to make sense of this post. No big deal, but I can't understand why you are talking about Fielder dropping off in 2011, unless Fielder is supposed to mean Hall.

Instead we continue to sign aging pitchers with declining skill sets and health to stop gap a rotation This description doesn't fit Wolf, who had a career high in IP with 214.

Are you assuming Fielder isn't going to be here in 2011? I don't think Melvin signs Wolf to a 3 year deal if he plans on losing Fielder after one more year. Suppan, Hall and Riske contracts going away should be enough to cover salary increases, as well as possible savings at C.

And I hate the argument that Melvin had to do something, as if this was the only option Can you find one person who has said this is the only option? The opinion of those who like the deal seem to be that this is the best option. if EVERY above average starting pitcher who wants a multi-year deal ends up being overpriced, sign 1 or 2 average arms coming off injury for $7-$9 mil per. That could theoretically work. It could also easily result in expensive, bad performances as seen by Red Sox fans in 2009. Hell, trade for a slightly below average pitcher (4.5ish ERA) and invest the $10 mil on offense (5 extra runs saved by pitching/fielding IS equal to 5 extra runs scored, as far as I can see). There are always options, especially when you are trying to upgrade from replacement level. This could also theoretically work. But having a good offense and bad pitching didn't do anything for the Brewers in 2009, and Melvin wasn't going to try that again. Maybe the success of drawing fans is a curse, in its own way. It puts pressure on Melvin to do the safest thing, to try to keep that fan momentum going. If Melvin didn't have any pressure to draw fans, he could do all kinds of risky things and see if they pay off. Of course, that isn't really in Melvin's nature, so I guess it's more of an Attanasio decision. Do you try and do the safe things and keep the stadium packed, try to build a winning team and see if you can luck into the playoffs. Or do you go high variance, with a greater chance of more success, but also a bigger chance of a losing team and losing fan interest? It's fun to theorize about risky moves that could have huge payoffs. It might even have a greater chance of succeeding, but the greater possibility of failure is a big deterrent.

Now they'll sign a reliever and call it a day. This would be contrary to Melvin's stated goal of acquiring two pitchers. There should be money for a bargain pitcher in January if there is anyone worth looking at.

Look, I may be wrong about this, but I'd like to document all the over 30 free agent pitchers who have ever signed with a small market teams and see how many of those teams went from non-playoff status to playoff status. Market is a vague term. The Brewers are somewhere in the middle of payroll for teams and are in the upper tier for attendance and percentage of fans watching at home.

FWIW, and it may not be W anything, I emailed TH a while back about insurance for Riske, and while he didn't know, he didn't believe that the Brewers would have obtained insurance for Riske, the insurance payments not being worth it.

Melvin is doing the best he can to win one with Fielder here. That third year will probably be regrettable, but right now he is trying to build the best team that he can. I don't think that the Brewers will get production matching the salary they are paying, but Wolf probably represents the best mix of health and pitching available this offseason. That says more about the pitching this offseason than Wolf, but I think this is a gamble that makes sense.

Just a guess on my part, but the main parking is in a parking ramp that is basically attached to the stadium (it cost almost $100M IIRC), so I don't think it's tailgating atmosphere.

If they want an injury prone guy, go for Bedard or Harden or Sheets. Those guys are actually good when healthy, not just OK. We don't know that this deal will prevent them from making a 2nd move. It may just be that Wolf will take this deal and that the other pitchers are hoping they get better offers. Wolf, maybe more than any other player, may be eager to not see another 3 year offer evaporate.