kramnoj

The Royals are going to have their highest payroll ever this year. I eyeballed it at over $75M, it may be another $5M or more. I would like to see the article, or was it just something on the Network? Bill Simmons has an interesting read on how much trouble the NBA is in and how much trouble it could be in, but I didn't see anything like this for baseball. I thought one of the whole points of the offseason is that certain teams didn't spend much in anticipation of lower revenue, so that they wouldn't be in trouble this season.

I would probably trust scouting reports over defensive metrics for a guy like Irribarren, but this rating shows him to below average at both 2B and CF: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2009_zips_projections_milwaukee_brewers/

Here is the thread: http://brewersfandemonium...u.com?topic=15684?page=1 The Fan Forum Director wrote "Just warning you, I'm taking you up on this. " It almost doesn't matter if his posting privileges have been taken away or not. He was clearly told he wouldn't be welcomed back. If he isn't suspended, I think an email from an admin telling him he is welcome would be appropriate. If he chooses to stay away based on his reputation, good for him, but he should be given the option to return.

Here is the thread: http://brewersfandemonium...u.com?topic=15684?page=1 The Fan Forum Director wrote "Just warning you, I'm taking you up on this. " It almost doesn't matter if his posting privileges have been taken away or not. He was clearly told he wouldn't be welcomed back. If he isn't suspended, I think an email from an admin telling him he is welcome would be appropriate. If he chooses to stay away based on his reputation, good for him, but he should be given the option to return.

For one, they are just assuming that Abreu won't get to a ball that Cameron would and based on that assumption are assuming that it would lead to x many more runs being scored against you. It depends on the metric you are looking at. Zone Rating doesn't assume anything. It measures the balls that a player gets to, and compares where the ball was caught and how many fielders at that position catch that ball. It does the same for balls the player doesn't get to. Sometimes there can be an over reliance on statistics, especially defensive statistics which can't necessarily be measured by direct numbers like you can on offense. What defensive metric do you think doesn't rely on direct numbers? It just like there are too many x-factors when talking about how many extra wins or losses a team would have had if someone else had been playing defense. You could say the same about offense. If a player hits a home run and his team loses, what good did the home run do? ARod is criticized by some for having too much of his offense be in garbage time or padding of runs in lopsided victories.

I think he should be welcomed back, especially since the enforcement of his leaving was heavy-handed. A moderator here posted that he would quit the board if Gallardo came back to pitch last season, and his statement wasn't enforced. I can understand a desire to not have posters make empty threats, but if one is enforced, I only think it is fair that all are equally treated.

I think he should be welcomed back, especially since the enforcement of his leaving was heavy-handed. A moderator here posted that he would quit the board if Gallardo came back to pitch last season, and his statement wasn't enforced. I can understand a desire to not have posters make empty threats, but if one is enforced, I only think it is fair that all are equally treated.

If Abreu would mean 4 less wins in terms of defense, couldn't we argue he'd mean 4 more wins because of offense? No. Abreu was worth just over 1 more win on offense last year, and that was with Cameron missing a month. If the Brewers didn't retain Cameron, the Yankees would have signed him. Signing Cameron would not have prevented them from getting CC. If they sign Cameron, they probably don't trade for Swisher (that's somewhat of a guess on my part, he may have been traded for anyway as insurance for Teixeira not signing). They still could have gone after Teixeira too. They probably at that point wouldn't have brought Pettitte back and gone with Hughes as their 5th SP. It is still incredible to me that the Yankees are going to have Melky and Gardner as the CF for most of this year. I thought that maybe Cashman would have called Melvin again to talk about a Cameron trade with either Nady or Swisher coming back. At this point though, I don't know how much sense it makes for Melvin to do that, as there isn't really a need to spend any saved money on. I suppose he might do it just to free up cash for the mid-season move he would like to make, but only if the Yankees sweeten the pot.

Per http://mlbcontracts.blogs...01/milwaukee-brewers.html the buyout was $750k, so I don't think it was a factor.

at what point has he ever been given consistant at bats to prove he can hit He's been given that opportunity in the minors. Success in the minors is generally predictive of success in the majors. It would be unusual to hit like Gwynn in the minors and then become a good hitter in the majors.

I got the impression earlier that Melvin picked it up with the intention of trading him, but found out that his salary was way too much for anyone to take on. Is there something specific that led to this impression? I think there's zero chance of Melvin committing to $10M if he's not comfortable with that person being on the roster. The possibility of a trade with the Yankees was presumably in his head, but I doubt he picked up the option with that as his primary intention. The unknowable variable here is how much the Yankees would have paid Cameron if Cameron had been a FA. I doubt that the Brewers would have got into a bidding war with the Yankees over Cameron.

I think there are 9 off-days before the ASB. I don't know that the #5 starter would be skipped. I think it's more likely that minor injuries (knock on wood) would be more likely to cause a shuffle of pitchers than anyone's start being skipped. If they don't skip a start and every pitcher makes every start, the 4 and 5 starters would get one less start before the ASB than the first 3. I believe that Macha said that the SP would be re-evaluated at the ASB, and he could tweak it then if neccessary. The only pitcher that would be affected would be the pitcher that starts on the Sunday before the ASB (the #3 if all pitchers made all their starts). Any other pitcher could start the first game back on full rest.

There aren't many 2bs that are as all around good as Roberts. That's true, but he has been signed to a deal that will take him to a point where 2B tend to collapse. 2B careers generally don't last as long as others, which is why they don't tend to get offers like this. I disagree -- I think that a lot of the "low salary talk" is being overstated The most sought after FA are getting the big dollars, but lots of other players are getting less than they would in previous years. Looking at the mediocre pitcher market, they were getting 3-5 year deals at $10M each over the last few years. Now they are getting one year guarantees for $5-$8M. Roberts isn't mediocre, but I don't know that I would put him at the elite level (and if he is, I certainly don't think he'll be elite for this contract). Second, the salaries are going to fluctuate, in 4 years $10M may be a bargain -- it's really hard to say. "May" is the big word here. The Orioles didn't need to sign him now, and they signed him to a 4 year deal that will take him to his age 35 season. They had to give him 4 years, because Roberts agent knew that the Orioles wanted him that badly and were willing to concede that. I absolutely think that Roberts is still very tradeable You write that like I don't think he's very tradeable. I don't doubt that the Brewers would trade for Roberts if they felt they needed to do so for the playoffs in 2009 and if they felt it was good value. The question is what is a good value. Roberts seemed to be on the trade market for all of last season, and the Orioles didn't find a match that was worth it. What would you give up for Roberts? It didn't seem like the Brewers were willing to give up what the Orioles wanted, nor were the Cubs. The bottom line, I would have loved to have the Brewers sign Roberts to a 4yr $10Mper deal That may be your bottom line, but it's not the one the Orioles faced. They had the option of offering arbitration to Roberts after this year. A couple of things could have happened. They could have got him for one more year at about this price without having to lock him up. Or he could start to decline and they would have dodged a bullet. Or Roberts could have declined arby, evaluated his market, and the Orioles could have signed Roberts to a deal that was more representative of that market. Or Roberts leaves because he wasn't treated well, and the Orioles finish in 5th place again (with picks when Roberts signs with another team). Paying a 35 year old declining 2B $10M/year seems like a worse result than any of the others. From a business side, this may have been the best decision. It seems like Roberts is that popular and the Orioles have certainly lost their luster. But I don't think it was the best baseball decision.

It's reasonable to think he'll be close to that value in '09, and then it won't take much more than average play to earn the rest of the value of the contract. This deal kicks in for 2010 season. This is clearly a PR move, not really a good baseball move. Roberts was already locked in for this year, so there was no need to extend him now. The market doesn't really pay 2B that well, there was little chance that Roberts would have got anything close to this offer if he were a FA. Fangraphs value is based on the FA market of past years, and doesn't reflect the smaller salaries that many players are getting this year. It's an overpay, in years and in dollars. It's not a terrible move, but it's not a good contract given the current market. The Orioles are in a tough spot. It would be an accomplishment for them to finish 3rd in their division, let alone compete for the playoffs. So if they are years away from being competitive, they may as well retain a guy that their fans like. If a team was willing to stock the Orioles farm system by trading for Roberts, that would be their best move, but that doesn't seem to be the case.

JB, your plan makes some sense in hindsight, but I don't see that as a practical move at the beginning of the offseason. Hudson was looking for a big deal, something like 5/$75M. There was no way he was going to sign for this little until ST started. That negotiation might have taken all offseason. Even if a deal like you talked about was made. I don't think it would be worth giving up a 1st round pick for an upgrade for a couple of years at 2B.

Per : http://mlb.mlb.com/news/a...mp;fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb "Free agents are on sale, and the Dodgers picked one up on the cheap Friday when they agreed with second baseman Orlando Hudson on a one-year contract, baseball sources confirmed. The deal is worth $3.4 million with another $4.6 million in possible incentives. " This is surprising to me on a couple of levels. I'm surprised that the Dodgers signed him, I thought they would go with Blake DeWitt at 2B. I also wasn't sure how much money the Dodgers would be spending this year. I wonder if the Dodgers are starting to spend the money they had set aside for Manny. I figured that Hudson would get more than one year. The climate obviously limited the spending of quite a few teams, and Hudson probably isn't perceived as enough of a star to get the big deal that he would have got in other years. It's a low guarantee, but if he makes all the incentives he'll get $8M, so that's fair. The other thing that is surprising to me is that the Dodgers are giving up the 17th pick in the draft for one year of a 31 year old 2B. If you are going to lose the pick, I would at least put on a team option for a 2nd year to get more utility out of that pick. Maybe Hudson wouldn't agree to a 2nd year in this economy and figures he has a shot at a multi-year deal next season.

Making him wait until after the June draft is just not a fair punishment for being a good but not great player. This isn't the case. If a team wants to sign Cruz without giving up their best pick, they can negotiate the frame of a deal with Cruz, and then they can call Arizona to work out a sign and trade. This benefits Arizona, because it is better than not getting anything in return. A team can't assign a contract for a newly signed player, but the player can be traded with their permission. The problem at this point may be that many teams may not have much of a budget to sign Cruz, regardless of draft pick compensation.

I think I have a somewhat cumbersome method to do it, but I believe it will give you what you want. www.baseball-reference.com has gamelogs for each player. It's an option in the bar in the batting section. Here for example is the game log for Braun for 2008: http://www.baseball-refer...i/gl.cgi?n1=braunry02&t=b If you look at the right side of the page, you see it tracks the daily rate stats for the player. If you want to see counting stats, the best way that I know how to do it would be to look at a day that the player has a particular event, and then the box score would give you the number for that game and then the number for the season. For example, looking at the gamelogs I see that including the May 1st game, Braun had 4 HR, 21 RBI, 10 2B. You're probably looking for something easier and are probably aware of this method already, but I thought I would throw this out as an idea.

The Yankees don't need to trade for Cruz, they could just sign him if they want. MLB didn't publicize the decision when it was first made, but teams can sign 8 Type A and B FA. I know some people don't believe it, but the Yankees do have a payroll limit, and they are pretty much there. There were even rumors that Swisher or Nady might have to be traded once Teixeira was signed to reduce payroll, but that hasn't happened yet. I wonder if the Yankees are just waiting for a ST injury to occur to another team so that they can offer Nady or Swisher when a team has a need.

As it stands right now, I don't think he's likely to be a September call up, since he's not on the 40. Of course, that could change over the next few months. He's had less than half a season at AA+, so a lot obviously depends on how he does this year. He's certainly one of the favorites for the job next year if he does well. Based on projections from ZiPs, it looks like an average CF is expected to OPS .750 this year, while a .715 OPS is in the lower 40%. If he could be in the .730 OPS range with decent defense, he might be a nice cheap option for the Brewers next year.

SVP was off the radio for a couple of days and is already back. Here is a link to one story with a portion of the audio: http://deadspin.com/51487...lt-some-quiet-time-update Per that story, SVP already called Selig to apologize. One of the things that he said regarding Selig, paraphrasing: "Selig looks like the kind of guy, you walk into his house, it has plastic on the furniture and it smells bad". He also used a term that I'm sure Selig didn't appreciate. It's a term that has a different meaning these days, but Selig doubtless took it as an insult. The first word in the phrase "_____ My Ride". It doesn't violate FCC laws, but it's less than polite, so I won't type it here.

Looking at the ZiPs projections and the depth chart for the Mariners on mlb.com, Pena might be the 7th best RP for the Mariners, so I think it's safe to guess he will see major league action for them this season.

In terms of free agents, I agree with mothership. I'd much rather have Nix than Gwynn and it'd be easy to get Nix. That's fine. But you still need to clear a spot on the 40-man for him when you need him. And the team is going to need a 4th OF. This isn't about Gwynn specifically. This is about managing a 40 man roster and planning for the injuries that will occur over the course of a season. I don't think Gwynn is all that valuable, but for all the players that are in the Brewers system, I think Gwynn is the best backup at CF for a stint that would cover a 15 day DL visit. It's certainly better to use him for a short stint than call up Cain too early. The Brewers have OFs better than Gwynn IMO that aren't on the 40 man. I don't understand how this is relevant. If they have to be used, they get added to the 40-man, and you then you have to remove someone.

You sign a free agent or trade a low level prospect. What FA do you sign during the season? Why risk trading away a prospect, when you could have saved yourself the trouble by keeping the needed depth in the first place? Why put yourself at the mercy of another team that knows you are desperate and need to acquire a player? What's wrong with Irribarren? He's played less than a season's worth of games in the OF. Right now it looks like Pena was maybe 12th on the depth chart for RP for the Brewers. I don't doubt that the ceiling for Pena is higher than Gwynn, but in terms of utility for the Brewers for the near future, it was lower.

Gwynn should've been removed and that is a slam dunk. If an injury happens, Gwynn Jr.s grow on trees. He'd be easy to replace via free agent and if not trading a low level prospect would probably bring back more than a Gwynn Jr. If Cameron goes down for a month, what do you do? Make Nelson or Irribarren a full time OF? If you go acquire another OF, then you need to remove someone from the 40 man anyway. It would be hard to argue that someone like DeFelice has more future value than Pena, but the Brewers clearly feel that DiFelice is better insurance for 2009 than Pena is.