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kramnoj

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Everything posted by kramnoj

  1. kramnoj
    You forgot 2002. So I did. Thank you for pointing that out. But as bad as people feel about this pitching staff, I am confident enough in this staff to be better than what the Brewers had in 2002.
  2. kramnoj
    Don't tell me Braden Looper was the only option out there because that's insulting the intelligence anyone who remembers this offseason. Let's not do the whole revisionist history thing. I'm not telling you Looper was the only option out there. You stated that the Brewers didn't spend any money to upgrade the team. I asked how you would have spent the money better. You're a bit quick with accusations of insulting anyone and implying that I'm being revisionist. Melvin wouldn't even consider Lowe and Lowe is better than anyone on the Brewers staff right now I think you have a hard time proving that Melvin didn't consider Lowe. Considering that Lowe signed with the Braves at 4/$60 I'm glad that the Brewers didn't get Lowe. If you are upset about Suppan's last two years, how do you think you would feel about paying a 39 year old Lowe $15M? Melvin has to balance the needs of the present with the needs of the future. I know Suppan's contract is an albatross but Melvin needs to remember that was HIS albatross and worse he was the person who made the completely insane decision to backload the contract and ruin the team's chances for the last two years of the deal to acquire any further help. Melvin's "completely insane decision" lowered Suppan's salary the past 2 years, resulting in the best 2 years the Brewers have had in some time, and leading to an amazing season resulting in record attendance and a playoff run.
  3. kramnoj
    You're pretty much betting on and risking throwing the first half of the season away by not really trying to spend any money to upgrade the team. Do you really think the Brewers didn't spend any money to upgrade the team? What options were better than what Melvin did?
  4. kramnoj
    brewers = lucky to win 65 games this year. I feel confident enough to make a loser leaves town bet about that. It has been a tough week for fans who have hopes of playoffs this year, but they aren't 65 wins bad. Do you know how truly bad a team has to be to only win 65 games? So bad that every Brewer team has done better than that since 1971. we will always be the milwaukee brewers, we will always be known for losing ... but we do fart in the wind once every 25 years. awesome. The Brewers only have one losing season in the last four. These Brewers don't have a losing mentality, but some of their fans do.
  5. kramnoj
    That's enough to make any GM cringe. That's obviously true. The question posted was do the Brewers have a match to make the Yankees OF better than it is now. Who would the Brewers give up that is so much better than Melky that the Yankees would trade something of value to get? I don't think Gwynn is better, if he is, certainly not enough that the Yankees would give up anything to acquire. If the Yankees think they need another OF, they are much more likely to sign Edmonds or Jenkins before they give up talent for a minor league player.
  6. kramnoj
    Do the Brewers have an OF to spare better than what the Yankees already have? The Yankees actually had a OF surplus with 3 starting corner OF of Damon, Nady and Swisher, with Gardner and Cabrera getting starts in CF. Now it means Swisher is a full time OF and Melky is the 4th OF who presumably gets spot starts at the corner. Sure, the Yankees would benefit from Cameron over their CF now, but I think that would be throwing in the towel for the Brewer season this year, as I don't see any return coming back that equals Cameron's production. The start was tough, and the Brewers will certainly be pressed to make a run at the playoffs, but it's too early to give up on the season.
  7. kramnoj
    It's possible Melvin will regret this, but I don't fault him for it. As great as Cruz has looked over the last year, his major league numbers are in 40 games. Its true that he has had phenomenal numbers in the minors over the last couple of years, but he had done well in the minors before without seeing that translate into major league success.
  8. kramnoj
    Perhaps you misunderstand what "strawman" means. What makes you think so? Where did an ERA of 6 come from? Suppan hasn't had a 6 ERA in anything close to a full season. If the question is do you pitch Suppan with a 6 ERA or use someone else, the answer is someone else. That's not an interesting question. Suppan hasn't had an ERA over 5 since 2002, and before then has only had higher ERAs in less than full seasons. Bums get lucky, and yeah, 4.50 isn't a regular occurrence, but 5.00 is. Look at 2005 when we got a 3.84 ERA over 35 starts by Davis, 4.57 over 24 by Santos, 4.35 over 20 by Ohka, 5.57 over 11 by Glover, and a good and mediocre ERA out of Helling and Obermueller over mixed appearances. If your definition of bum includes Davis and Ohka, there's no point in us discussing this further. Those were established major league pitchers. These Brewers don't have anybody like that who is an option to replace Suppan if he is pulled.
  9. kramnoj
    The guy did hit over .300 in the post-season (granted, that was only 20+ ABs). Funny how that gets overlooked, though. According to b-ref, he did hit .313 in 16 AB. And with one SF, his OBP was .294. I'm not sure that it is getting overlooked, as much as it is people valuing the sample data correctly.
  10. kramnoj
    It seems kind of odd that we cannot post what we're thinking/feeling/reacting about how the season is going unless it is positive or backed up by some statistical trends. Why does this impression exist? If you read the Keep Brewerfan Beautiful for 2009, it specifically includes this: "It's not that we're against posting negative opinions. Discussing the negative is at least as important (and sometimes more important) than discussing the positive. However, members can certainly address the negative without crossing the line into blatant obnoxiousness." It says explicitly that negative opinions are welcome.
  11. kramnoj
    You did if you infer from those data that Suppan is a #3 starter on an average team. This has already been discussed if you read further. Durability only matters if the mediocrity that comes with it is better than what will replace that pitcher. For example, if you have a reliable SP with an ERA of 6, and could bring in a revolving crew of scrubs with ERA's from 4.5-5.5, we're better off making the switch. I'm not aware of any scrubs who should be counted on to have a 4.5 ERA, are you? Futhermore, I don't see why you are comparing this to a an ERA of 6. This seems to fit the definition of a strawman argument. If you want to compare the Suppan to pitchers who do better in fewer IP, you also need to look at the other IP that had to be thrown because the better pitcher didn't pitch a full season worth of IP. Chances are it was below average. That whole combination would need to be explored before it is clear that another team was better off with a better pitcher throwing fewer IP.
  12. kramnoj
    Thanks for the link. Per the probables on ESPN, that means that Gallardo will be going up against Santana on Saturday and Soup will match up against Pelfrey on Sunday. As far we know now, this doesn't mean much, but we can see how this compares to some thoughts that have been posted here recently about how Macha was positioning Suppan. By going against Pelfrey instead of Johan, Suppan is no longer facing the ace of the other team, meaning that he isn't being sacrificed against a better pitcher in some grand strategy. It also doesn't look like anyone's start is being skipped, as some people feared would happen. Just deal with him for 2 more seasons and in 2011 maybe we can have another "going for it" year with actual talent in the rotation. This seems unduly pessimistic. I think the 2009 rotation has actual talent and this team is going for it. The Brewers sold a whole mess of tickets, and their biggest signing was Hoffman. They could have chosen to cash in on sales and not sign Hoffman or Looper.
  13. kramnoj
    Yeah but its still nice to have an universal vent thread. I'm going to be honest here, looking at our system and staff right now, unless some guy just steps up big time we are in serious trouble of not even making .500. We don't have depth at all. Your second paragraph is good evidence of why we don't need a vent thread. A vent thread may be a form of therapy for some, but if that's the case, maybe the staff should create a vent thread and charge admission. If we want to discuss the specific issues with the Brewers, a thread for each issue is the best way to have an intelligent, interesting discussion.
  14. kramnoj
    Gagne did get pulled from the Closer role but they kept giving him chances in the pen even when he was giving up a ton of runs. Unfortunately, that's the way baseball works. You actually need to let players fail to figure out if they are truly bad or just going through a tough spot. CC last year had a terrible first 4 starts: 27 ER in 18 IP. Sometimes players just need to work through the first couple of weeks to get going. The Tigers released Sheffield and his $12 million salary. I don't think we would ever do that. Which do you think influences your opinion more: your history of being a Brewer fan, or the choices that Attanasio and Melvin have made? I think this ownership group and FO have done enough unprecedented things to give them the benefit of the doubt and not assume they will do bad things because other baseball teams do bad things.
  15. kramnoj
    Can Brad Nelson pitch? Has anyone done a fun study on the success of position players doing a cameo as pitchers? Nick Swisher pitched a scoreless inning last night! Cirillo pitched a scoreless inning at 37.
  16. kramnoj
    Then you are mis-applying it. In any given year there are going to be a lot of pitchers that come up from AAA that are going to pitch < 160 IP, but be more effective than someone like Suppan. Sure, the smaller samples that someone performs in, the greater chance they will look good. I don't think Suppan is a #3 starter, but the facts that were presented to make him look "very sub-par" didn't do anything of the sort. If you have 45 geniuses in a room, the one with the 42nd highest IQ isn't very sub-par. S/he just happens to be near the bottom of that particular list in that particular category.
  17. kramnoj
    Either way a lot of MLB teams would not be starting Suppan at all with the way he has pitched and worse yet we have to watch our team accumulate losses under the crappy argument that as a small market team we need to keep and play someone we made a horrendous judgment on and overpaid. Suppan is starting because he has success as a SP, including games pitched last year. If there was clearly a better alternative, do you really think Attanasio would let his team lose games as some sort of justification for salary? It didn't keep Gagne in the closer role last year, and it didn't keep Yost from being unprecedently fired last year. Regarding the title of this thread, Suppan has a longer leash, because of his salary, and because of his success. But I don't see this team riding Suppan's failures into June. If Suppan can't show success in a reasonable timeframe, there will be alternatives explored. The key question is when that will be. Two starts this season isn't enough, and it's not clear to me that we should lump last season's losing streak into the equation without talking about the season as a whole. I think Suppan deserves at least two more starts. His next start against the Mets will probably be tough, but then it looks like he is scheduled against the Astros. If he can't put together a decent start by then, then DiFelice or McClung deserve a look.
  18. kramnoj
    You missed the qualifier for 160 IP. While it is certainly arguable that Suppan has historically had value -- it certainly isn't at the #3 spot in recent years No, I didn't. That qualifier is important. That's pretty much the biggest contribution that Suppan can bring, durable medicority. If he isn't on for a particular game, he has a high chance of getting blown out. The manager is responsible for managing the game, and that includes recognizing when Suppan doesn't have his stuff and pulling him before he allows too many runs for the offense to overcome. When Suppan can control his pitches and his defense will catch the BIP, he can be a decent starter.
  19. kramnoj
    He's been atrocious with the bat for the past 2 years, even for a catcher. This seems to be an exaggeration. He was clearly the worst hitting catcher for those that qualified for the batting title last year, but there were only 9 in that category. Of all catchers that had a PA last year, he was about in the middle of those players, ranked by OPS. But the point stands that Kendall won't bring much value with his bat. His value will have to come with his defense and his playcalling. If he doesn't bring value there, then Rivera should certainly be given more opportunities.
  20. kramnoj
    Among 45 NL pitchers with at least 160 IP, Suppan was: 42nd/45 in ERA 42nd/45 in WHIP 42nd/45 in K/9 If that's not "very sub-par" then what is?? There are 16 teams in the NL. If Suppan is the 42nd best SP in the NL, then he is a #3 starter on an average NL team. That seems perfectly par to me.
  21. kramnoj
    Suppan was also lucjy at that point because he gave up a ton on unearned runs. He had 11 unearned runs in the first half of the season Suppan had 12 unearned runs all season. Parra had 10. If Suppan's 12 is a ton, how much do Parra's 10 weigh?
  22. kramnoj
    He's been something like 0-8 with a 10.00+ ERA since last Labor Day. I'm just going to assume every game he starts is a guaranteed loss from here on out. Braun's OPS is below .661 since last September. How long do you expect that to continue?
  23. kramnoj
    He should have been taken out of the rotation early last year. When should he have been taken out last year? Suppan's biggest problem is that he has so little (maybe zero) margin of error. There are days where he is just going to get blown out. But there were plenty of games last year where Suppan was a good enough pitcher to help his team win.
  24. kramnoj
    And the reason "small" market teams can't compete is because Selig spent the 90s getting taxpayer funds for stadiums instead of nationalizing broadcast rights. I'm not sure what this is supposed to mean. Why would there be a nationalization of local games that are played 162 times per year to what can be low ratings for much of the season? Not to mention the only chance he likely has at the HoF would be playing for the Yankees. Why would this be true? Is he supposed to perform better in NYS versus OPACY?
  25. kramnoj
    I don't think that's the primary reason. That is Good Friday, and the Tigers are the only home team playing a game before 3 PM local time.
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