kramnoj

I'm aware he can turn down a contract, but when was the last time you heard of a player doing that? Bernie Williams signed with the Yankees for less than the Red Sox were offering. Not a tremendous amount, but it was lower. Remember when ARod signed with Texas? He said he didn't even want to play there, but had to because they offered so much money. I doubt he said that when he was taking their money. He may have said it afterwards, but he certainly had a choice. The union can't do anything to a player for taking a contract that is less than is offered elsewhere. A lot of times players take the most money because it doesn't much matter where they work. Half of the time in the season they are on the road, and when they are home a lot of the prime family time is spent at the ballpark anyway.

Chances are that Sheffield is included in the online poll so that people will notice it, tell their friends about it, and they will tell their friends about it, etc, so that a lot more people than normal would respond to a meaningless poll. Controversy drives traffic. As for Sheffield moving, I heard speculation on another board that the Rays may be interested in him and he would have similar interest in going there. There is another slugger who would probably join this team before Sheffield, if for no other reason than he is freely available.

You'd think after 15 or so million a year, the numbers just start to blur and athletes start to think about other people. Agents, however, simply laugh at your adorable naivety. Other teams have fans too. They will be plenty happy when their team signs CC this offseason. CC will be thinking of other people when he signs his deal. He will be thinking of the generations of his family that he can make sure will have good lives because of his ability to make an incredible fortune.

I think part of the attendance such has to be a sort of "honeymoon period" where the Brewers are suddenly really actually competitive and fun to watch. If they keep winning next year and after, a number of people will probably become more comfortable with watching the games on TV instead. How long is the honeymoon period supposed to last, and when would you say it started? Attendance has been increasing for years. As long as the Brewers are good and being a Brewers fan is fun, Miller Park is going to be packed (assuming the FO doesn't misread the market and makes ticket prices too high). One thing that I've noticed is that there are plenty of people that love to go to the game, even if they aren't paying much to the action. MP is just a fun place to go out and hang out with friends. As long as that is the case, MP will be packed with fans and friends alike.

This attendance surge can't possibly last more than a few years (see Toronto and Cleveland). Why couldn't the attendance keep up if the Brewers remained competitive? Cleveland's attendance fell when the team stopped winning. Same with Toronto. This town loves to show up and root for a good Brewer team. As long as a good Brewer team is on the field, I don't see many reasons to think that fans will stop showing up.

Not exactly what you are looking for, but the following link is one researcher's stats on Defensive Runs Saved in 2008 for the NL: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p9BODtOllD4vZjNJHWSF9SA In only 267 innings at 3B, he is ranked 5th in the league in Runs Saved with 2.8. Now that is obviously an incredibly small sample, and a couple of great plays in a short time span can really skew his numbers his way. But in his time at 3B, he really isn't inferior when compared to other 3B.

So below average defense and striking out a GaZillion times doesn't bother you? Branyan isn't really below average defensively, and in most cases a K isn't any wose than a regular out. Branyan's a big guy, but he's athletic, he has sure hands and an accurate arm.

One of the basics of evaluating a pitcher is comparing strikeouts and walks. Years ago, before I ever read about DIPS, I read that Ron Shandler of Baseball Forecaster never looked at ERA when evaluating pitchers. He recommended looking at the K:BB ratio and said that a good pitcher will have a 2:1 K:BB ratio. His experience was that evaluating pitchers like that was more successful than ERA. I don't even know if that was someone common knowledge before then, but that's where I first read it. Good to great pitchers will have a 3:1 or 4:1 ratio.

One thing that should be pointed out is that both Yo and Parra will finish this season with less than 2 years service time, which means they will be under club control through 2013. With the market majorly overpaying elite talent its almost hopeless for small market teams to get an above average/elite player to sign an extention when they have one year until free agency. I don't think you should be mixing up above average and elite. Elite players aren't really majorly overpaid. Above average, even average players, certainly are.

Courtesy of Cot's, I will list all salary obligations for next year (a little different than what you are asking, but serves the same purpose): Suppan: $12.5 m Hall: $6.8 m Kendall: $4.25 m (could be 4.6 based on starts this year) Riske: $4.25 m Torres: $3.75 m (I'm just assuming he will be picked up unless ...knock on wood) Braun: $.745 m So $32.295 or a little more in guaranteed salaries. Options: Cameron: $10M club option ($0.75M buyout) Counsell: $3.4M ($0.4M buyout) It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Arb: Capuano: ? Hardy: $5-6 m? Bush: $5m ? Weeks: $2-3m? McClung: $2m? Fielder: $8m? Hart: $3-4m? Villenueva: $ .500 m? Gallardo $ .450 m? Rivera: $ .400 m Parra: $ .400m? I estimate a minimum of $27 million in arb eligible players, could be up to $35 or more if I guessed wrong. So I count about $60 million in guaranteed payroll plus my arby guesses. That would give us a rotation of Yo, Parra, Suppan, Bush and McClung, starters at every position but CF, a bullpen that includes Torres, Riske and Villenueva and a backup C. With guys like Dillard, Stetter, Pena we could fill out a bullpen. I didn't include Dillon or Branyan, or Kapler. CF would presumably be filled on the cheap with Gwynn/Kapler or the option on Cameron. Dillon would still be in club control, so he would probably add another $400k for a bench player. Utility infielder would probably be Counsell for $3m or they could go with a guy like Irribarren or Crabbe. As discussed elsewhere, Branyan seems to have lost his position, but he would be probably be available for relatively cheap if they want him. So with players they have on the roster and filled out with players in the minors, the team would probably spend $65-70 million depending on arby awards. Assuming they increase ticket prices, the team could probably afford a $90 million budget, which means they might have $20 million to spend. If they spend $10 million to pick up Cameron and don't pick up Counsell, they would have about $10 million to spend on pitching. That may get a mediocre SP, or it could get a couple of relievers. Or they could go cheap at CF and Utility Infielder and have $20 million to spend on pitching. That could get them a top pitcher, but the top pitchers may get more, or may get that number from another team. It will definitely be an intriguing offseason.

I just looked through the game logs. I could have added wrong but it looks like we're 19-14 in games Counsell starts and 18-16 in games Branyan starts. Of course there were a couple of games where Branyan technically started but was taken out for a pinch hitter that we ended up losing. So I counted those. Thanks for doing the work on that. I thought about doing it tonight, but you did it for us. Yost has a reason for doing everything, even if it's muddy or just insane to the rest of us. Even though it's a incredibly small difference, and a one game swing either way makes it basically no difference at all, I think this is the reason that Yost is putting Counsell out there. He just feels that Counsell is either going to find a way to help the team win, or at the very least isn't going to be the reason that the Brewers lose. It could all be realistic expectations too. If Counsell goes 0-4 and doesn't make a bad play in the field, well, that's just baseball for you. But if Weeks goes 0-4 with a couple of Ks and a blunder or two in the field, then he is hurting the Brewers.

I think the Pitcher Ranking can get overstated. If healthy, a #4 starter gets as many starts as a #1, right? If Haren is projected to be an average to above average pitcher and he will be one of the top 5 SP on the team and his deal is market value, than this is a good deal assuming Haren stays healthy. That's a lot of ifs, but that's what a baseball team has to work with. IMO, the Pitcher Ranking only matters when it comes to the playoffs and a true ace can shut down a team. Haren probably isn't that guy, he gives up too many hits and HR, but he's a guy that should be able to help a team get to the playoffs. I just don't think this is a deal that will keep the Dbacks from making a move they want to make in the future. Deals like the EByrnes contract are the ones that can hamstring a team.

This would be a silly stat, but is there a site that tracks actual winning percentage when certain players are in the starting lineup? I don't mean OWP, because that is a projection, but a history. I get the feeling that Yost thinks that Counsell being on the field makes the Brewers better. His offensive stats wouldn't justify putting him in the lineup on a regular basis, and he can't start everyday, but the Brewers seem to have a decent record when Counsell is on the field, even if he has nothing to do with it. Of course the Brewers have a decent record when just about anybody is in the field this year, but I don't think Yost is thinking this all the way through. I just get this feeling that Yost would put Counsell in the lineup and the Brewers would win and his mind just made a connection that Counsell = Wins! The Brewers didn't really struggle when Weeks was on the DL, and Counsell being on the field was a part of that, even if his bat didn't make a big difference.

I'm relatively new here, so I can't speak for what this place used to be like. I know that I wanted to join this place because it had the most intelligent, active discussion about the Brewers that I could see. To continue the sports radio theme: when things are going well, the post-game shows sometimes struggle getting enough callers to fill the allotted time, but when things are going bad, the lines are lit up with people willing to express their views. I can see that here to some extent. When the Brewers are winning easily, there aren't as many new topics on a daily basis. There's only so many ways to express contentment and happiness, and one of the board guidelines is to not be repetivie. When there are things to complain about, there are usually multiple people that can be blamed, and ideas on how to fix things, etc. I could totally be wrong in my theory. What did this place used to be like that was so much better? Is there less actual interesting discussion these days, or is it just drowned out by all the noise? If there is less interesting discussion, why is that? Have some people left, if so why? I used to spend all my baseball internet time at baseballprimer and in my opinion that site has decreased from what it used to be. When I first started reading it, an average post consisted of a few paragraphs and a topic rarely had more than a few dozen replies. These days a thread can reach a few hundred posts just because a lot of people want to have their say, even if what they say isn't any different from dozens of other posts. I guess that's one of the prices that come with popularity.

The pitching situation should not be solved by trading Fielder It'd be hard to see him go, that's for sure. I think he's our best & most talented hitter by a relatively wide gulf. Did you mean specifically at 1B, or in general? If the former, sure. If the latter, I just don't think that's true. If you look at 2007 and 2008 their OPS+ is really close. Fielder has a better walk rate, but Braun has more power and a better batting average. If the plan is to throw money at Derek Lowe or Ryan Dempster, I'd rather the Brewers just re-sign Sheets. That's a sensible thought, but I don't think the FO is thinking this way. They seem to have resigned themselves that Sheets is going to walk and that no offer the team can make will matter, because some other team will be more desparate than the Brewers when pursuing Sheets. I think we can pretty much assume that Sheets is gone, and if we work with that assumption, the team needs to field a field a rotation in 2009. Gallardo and Parry will presumably be 1 and 2 and you can slot Suppan in there as well. I don't know that a lot of people have confidence in the other two slots being filled with some combination of Bush, McClung and Villenueva. It would make sense that the team sign a FA pitcher if they can find what they consider a reasonable deal and then we have decent backup options in our bullpen in case of injuries. Back to the original topic: I can't speak with any informed opinion on Gamel at 3B. This offseason is going to be fascinating to follow, and I think that's one of the reasons that we find ourselves talking about it so much even as the team is doing well this year. Escobar and Gamel could probably be starters in 2009 on quite a few teams next year, but the Brewers may decide to let them season some more. Or the team could try to spend money and assets to acquire a frontline pitcher and will need to bring up either of those players to keep the team on budget.

Braun's currently leading the bigs in XBH and Total Bases (by a fairly large margin, he has 259 as of yesterday, 2nd has 243).

I love the quotes from Braun and Counsell. It will be interesting to see if the Fielder discipline will result in a sitting, or if it will be entirely behind doors. Clearly the Brewers goal is to win games, and if indeed this is just an isolated blowup and not indicative of a bigger issue, sitting Prince isn't going to help the Brewers chances.

Durham had no problem going in and restraining Fielder. Didn't take him long to assume a leadership role on the team. I hadn't noticed the Yost non-move until pointed out. That is weird to me. Maddux and Skaalen didn't have a problem getting involved, but Yost doesn't do anything.

755 OPS might be average for a 2B, but most teams don't bat their 2B leadoff. Rickie doesn't write himself in the lineup. Also, we can't cherrypick his OPS for the year is like .703. That is dreadful. What cherries are you picking? His season OPS is .719. It is average among 2B right now. How is that dreadful? Average 2Bs are a dime a dozen. If this were true, there wouldn't be any 2B worse than Weeks, right? If that is what he is, thats fine, but the #2 player selected in the draft should be an impact player. Is that actually true? Are more than 50% of players taken 2nd in the draft better than what Weeks has done? Or an impact player, however you define that? He is, at best, a role player So, someone who is average at their position is a role player? You are using that word differently than most people do.

Yes, we are talking about expectations. The most reasonable expectations are those based on recent performance. Weeks is doing better than he was earlier this season, and his defense is better than it has been. He is now ranked 16th in Zone Rating. That combined with his offense makes him basically an average player this year for his position.

If that is your expectations, well that's not very good at all. Rickie was proclaimed as a player that needed minor league ball to improve his fielding and that his bat was major league ready. A 755 OPS would place Weeks 11th among qualified 2B. Do you not think that is major league ready? As it is, Weeks is 14th among 2B, so that means his offensive level is average.

Good, he's not even that good of a rightfielder, let alone cf. Not sure why people are so anxious to shift him to center Hart looked good in RF last year and is the fastest guy on the team. I for one thought that he could be near average (probably just a bit below average) defensively but have great offense for the position. Add the previous incentive to find a spot for LaPorta and I wasn't the only one who dreamed of a Braun/Hart/LaPorta OF that wouldn't be good defensively but should have the most power in the majors. His defense doesn't look nearly as good this year and I think LaPorta being traded was a signal that the Brewers didn't think they had a spot in the majors for Matt for the next couple of years. Mevlin has shown that he is willing to take fliers on guys like Podsednik and Brady Clark, I wouldn't be surprised if he tried to find one of those guys this witner. Edit: Everyone seems to be jumping on the Escobar SS for the brewers next season. I see no reason (other then the Indians taking him) to think Brantley can't be just as effective. Better then Gwynn for sure! A legit leadoff hitter who won't strike out. Something we absolutely need! It's certainly not true that everybody is ready for Escobar. For those who do like Escobar, there are a couple of reasons. His defense is expected to be fantastic. Like top 5 as soon as he takes the field. Because Weeks has struggled so much some would rather trade him and bring up Escobar. I don't know much about Brantley's defense. Why has he been spending time at 1B? Is that a way for him to recover from injury?

faede2black, do you think it is likely that the Brewers would give CF to a 22 year old who hasn't spent any time in AAA? I can see a scenario that has Gwynn and a veteran manning CF at the beginning of the season and Brantley starting at AAA with the chance of being promoted if he does well and Gwynn struggles.

I do think that CF is going to be a bad position for the Brewers next year. Cameron has delivered as expected this season and is good value for his salary. It is unlikely that he will be worth $10 million next year. I thought that Gwynn had been doing better earlier this season, but he is not doing well right now. He's not even hitting doubles, which a guy with speed should be able to do. He would be cheap but be an offensive negative next season. Another option would be Coco Crisp. I imagine that Boston would like to unload him, so he shouldn't cost much in prospects. He hasn't had good offense the last 3 seasons, but he is supposed to be a plus defender and there's a chance he could catch some of the spark he showed in Cleveland early in his career. He's owed $5.75 mil next year, which is probably more than he's worth but isn't awful. He has an $8 mil option for 2010 or a $500k option. He would basically be in between Cameron and Gwynn. Not as good as Cameron, but at a reduced price. Probably better than Gywnn without being crazy expensive and doesn't have a long term contract. I think a rule change allows an option that wasn't always available: I think the Brewers could buy out Cameron's option for $750k and then try to negotiate a new contract. Obviously you risk losing him if you do that, so the Brewers would need to get a good read on other teams that might be interested and project what other teams would offer. Edit: I'm going through other team's rosters to see who has reserves that could be options for 2009 CF for the Brewers. Ryan Rayburn looks interesting. He'll be 28 next year, so he doesn't have a long term future for the Tigers and he has good stats and has played some CF. He could be an intriguing guy to have compete for CF next year and would make a useful reserve regardless. I wouldn't think he would take too much to get from the Tigers.

I don't think there's much of a chance of him coming back as a starter this season. He would need to start pitching off a mound within a few weeks to stretch himself out. I do think there's a bigger chance that he could come back and contribute as a reliever in limited usage, ala the Joba Rules last year. Something like an inning every other day.