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kramnoj

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Everything posted by kramnoj

  1. kramnoj
    From the article: "According to the Brewers, fans in 42 states have some kind of season-ticket package. Fans in all 50 states have bought individual game tickets." I thought that was cool. Thanks for the link AJAY, that was a fun read. Also from the article: "The team also has become a ratings hit on television as well. Since the Brewers traded for pitcher CC Sabathia on July 7, the team has averaged a 10.74 local rating during 15 telecasts. On Monday night, the Brewers-Cubs telecast on FSN earned a 16.22 rating, making it the team's highest-rated game ever on FSN. That rating equates to 143,838 households." That TV number is incredible. The next TV contract should be an interesting story to follow.
  2. kramnoj
    He won't hit like one of the top DHs, but there are usually a team or three that employee DHs that peform at or below the level of Griffey in his recent off years. It is probably true that his salary won't match his performance, but that is true of most free agents.
  3. kramnoj
    It was likely (and still is) that he would be out for the season, but I don't think anyone in the know has explicitly said that he won't be able to return this season. At this point we don't know. We will probably get better information in about a month, because he would probably need to go through a mini spring training to prepare if he wanted to come back.
  4. kramnoj
    The cost of construction is highly unlikely to ever come close to making it worthwhile to add cheap seats because you could not charge much for seats out there. I really don't know, but what would the cost of construction for 500 bleacher seats be? If you figure just $20 average revenue per seat (that's cost of ticket, parking cut that the Brewers get, whatever profit they get from concessions, etc) for say 40 games a year that is $400k in just one year. And I think I'm being conservative there in revenue/seat. The Brewers will sell out at least 30 games this year. I don't think it's a stretch to guess they could sell out 40. Every time they turn away a customer they are losing potential revenue. There are certainly different schools of thought when it comes to seating capacity. The Red Sox have the smallest stadium in the league (IIRC) and have been adding seats in different places to increase revenue. Meanwhile, the new Yankee stadium is going to have a few thousand fewer seats than the current one. There's a balance between creating scarcity to increase prices and being so scarce that you are limiting revenue. I do think that it is feasible to add 1-2k seats as previously pointed out and generate a million $ or more for the team per year.
  5. kramnoj
    http://blog.washingtonpost.com/dcsportsbog/2008/07/nats_last_in_the_league_last_i.html is a partial look at TV ratings. "More to the point, the lowest average household numbers, aside from the Nats, watch the Royals (28,000), Orioles (33,000) and Pirates (34,000)." "The biggest average households numbers, according to the story (which is based on Nielsen Media Research numbers) watch the Yankees (325,000), Red Sox (233,000) and Mets (204,000)." http://www.jsonline.com/story/index.aspx?id=767614 is a recent column that looks at the ratings from a series against the Twins this year. "The Milwaukee Brewers' first game against the host Minnesota Twins on Friday night on FSN Wisconsin drew the largest audience with an 8.2 rating, or 73,062 households. Next was the Brewers-Twins telecast on Sunday with a 6.1 rating, or 54,351 households, followed by Brewers-Twins on Saturday night, 5.0, or 44,550 households" I don't know how that weekend compares to others, but we know that they do better than at least 4 teams.
  6. kramnoj
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1297 is a link to an article from 2000 that looked at all team revenues. It's not exactly what you are looking for, because it includes all local media revenue, but it shows that the Brewers were then getting less than $6 million total locally. Compare that to the Pirates, who were getting over $9 million. Someone linked a rumor here recently that Attanasio was looking to buy minority ownership of the Bucks. I wonder if there is interest to link the teams so that they could launch a joint network, like YES did. I don't know how they work around the games that would overlap, I guess sell some to a local channel. I know the Twins tried to launch their own network years ago and failed when trying to get on to all the local cable providers across the state.
  7. kramnoj
    think the seating capacity is fine. If we start to sellout EVERY game, that means the Supply/Demand has shifted dramatically where the tickets are more valuable and the Brewers can *gasp* charge more.... Gasp? Really? I'm pretty sure the Brewers have raised ticket prices in many areas over the last few years and would be expected to do so again this offseason. Increasing capacity increases revenue in parking, tickets, concessions, team gear. I would think the Brewers have a handle on how many extra tickets they could sell and would be exploring the cost of adding extra capacity vs the revenue return.
  8. kramnoj
    If the Brewers wanted to add capacity, how feasible would that be, and where could they do so? I wouldn't want to make the playing field smaller, so it would probably have to be in the area behind CF where they have the Point and that Tundra section. I'll freely admit to knowing nothing about architecture, so I'm probably missing a few things, but I imagine the FO has to be considering possibilities.
  9. kramnoj
    B-Ref has it at 1,820,282 as well.
  10. kramnoj
    Beltre has a .259 BA/.762 OPS, which is below average for a 3rd baseman. His OPS is currently 17th among qualified 3B (.765). The 15th 3B by OPS is at .774. Do you really think that 9 points of unadjusted OPS 2/3 of the way through the season qualifies Beltre as below average? I think a more accurate description would be near average.
  11. kramnoj
    Reyes had less than 2 years service time going into this season, so he can be a great pickup if he can turn it around. This might actually be a perfect time to pick Reyes up. Teams are mostly selling or buying right now. The competition for Reyes may have been stronger in the offseason. It certainly is unorthodox to do this now, but I think it's a smart move.
  12. kramnoj
    Kendall is about 3 weeks from guaranteeing a $4.25million option for next year. That option may go up to $4.6 if he gets enough games. He'll be 35 next year. He will probably be worth it next year in that none of the young catchers will be expected to be major league ready next year and that his salary will be acceptable compared to available FA. Hopefully one of the young catchers will be ready in 2010.
  13. kramnoj
    As you said, you forgot Durham. I'm not saying anything other than I really doubt that the team is going to lose money (or were at that point at that time) if they were to add Durham AND Giles after making that statement. Just my opinion. Amazingly I remembered Durham when thinking about acquisitions and forgot about him when thinking about roster construction. My point was that the team was already prepared to make two moves after they got CC. This would be a 2nd move, so I don't see why this move would change anything. There's no limit to how much money a team can lose in a season, and the team has been quite profitable since Attanasio has taken over the team, so there's no reason to think that money wouldn't be able to fund a somewhat significant loss this season.
  14. kramnoj
    You're right, how could I forget Durham. I do wonder if Branyan wouldn't be picked up though. If Sexson can get a job this season, some desperate team might take a chance with Branyan.
  15. kramnoj
    really dig Mark Attanasio as an owner, but if they were to get Giles, I have a hard time believing that they will lose money this year. The team specifically said they were looking to add a bat and an arm after getting CC, so one could assume they were prepared to lose more money. This wouldn't change that at all. Melvin could be looking at the market for arms and make the evaluation that the trade market is overpriced for what he is willing to give up right now. If he feels that Giles is available for a price that he won't regret, he does improve the team. As said above, he could easily get two starts a week by giving Cameron one day a week off and Braun/Hart one day off every two weeks. He is also insurance should something happen to the starting 3, and he is a nice PH to have when he isn't starting. Edit: Prepare yourselves, if the Brewers really are pursuing Giles, there are only two logical candidates to drop from the roster. One would be a reliever, which I don't think they'll do - the other is....Russell Branyan. Do you think Branyan would be more likely to go over Kapler? If Giles is on the roster, Kapler is reduced to fewer PH, defensive replacement and pinch running. I just don't think there would be any starts left for him. It is clear that Branyan's role has been reduced recently, so I understand why you would say that. That would leave us with Counsell as the only backup IF. I guess if Giles is available for the right price, you make the move and sort out the details later.
  16. kramnoj
    Assuming the two aces leave for more money, do you feel comfortable with a rotation of Yo, Parra, Suppan, Bush, McClung and whatever is on our system? We don't know when Cap will be back or at what strength, I don't think Jeffress will be ready, maybe at midseason if he really progresses. I think they offer $10-$12 million to a guy like Penny or Lowe and see if they can get them. I think they might actually get more money than that even, but if they do, it will probably be for another team. When you look at all the possible options, I think the Brewers best deal is to offer CC 5 years $100 million, put one or two option years at the end of $25 or $30 million based on IP. I would much rather pay him that money even if it means we lose Cameron and stick with Gwynn for a year than pay half that money to a low 2/3 pitcher. Edit: I realized that I forgot to include Villenueva as an option for the rotation. He would presumably get a shot at the rotation again in ST, or at the least be available as an emergency starter. Still, a team likes to have 7 or so viable options at SP, and that gives you 6.
  17. kramnoj
    B-R PI tells me it has happened 6 times. Looks like it happened between 1921 and 1937 with Ruth, Gehrig, Greenberg, elite players like that. I think outfielders used to play more shallow during that time, which is why a guy like Ruth had 136 career triples and a season high of 16. Heck, he had 4 as a 39 year old.
  18. kramnoj
    I don't know who becomes a free agent next year, but at 12.5 million for a guy like Soup I'd rather take some chances on conversions etc. Here are the potential list of 2009 FA SP per Cot's. Kris Bensen BAL A.J. Burnett TOR (may opt out) Paul Byrd CLE Ryan Dempster CHC Jon Garland LAA Tom Glavine ATL Mike Hampton * ATL Rich Harden * CHC Orlando Hernandez NYM Jason Jennings TEX Randy Johnson ARZ John Lackey * LAA Esteban Loaiza CHW Braden Looper STL Derek Lowe LAD Pedro Martinez NYM Mike Mussina NYY Jamie Moyer PHI Mark Mulder * STL Carl Pavano NYY Brad Penny * LAD Odalis Perez WAS Oliver Perez NYM Andy Pettitte NYY Mark Prior SD Horatio Ramirez KC C.C. Sabathia MIL Ben Sheets MIL John Smoltz * ATL Julian Tavarez ATL Steve Trachsel BAL Brett Tomko SD Claudio Vargas MIL Randy Wolf HOU
  19. kramnoj
    In case it wasn't obvious, I laughed because I thought it was funny, not because I thought it was wrong.
  20. kramnoj
    Punny nickname from the D-List this morning. CG Sabathia. I laughed.
  21. kramnoj
    MJ hit .202, but I actually think that is impressive for a guy who hadn't played organized baseball in over a decade. He also had 51 BB in 436 ABs, which is a better walk rate than some prospects. He stole 30 bases against 18 CS, which obviously isn't normally good, but again I think is impressive for a guy who was doing it almost entirely on instinct and natural speed. I followed his season fairly closely in daily boxscores, and if IIRC he actually walked a fair amount to begin the season, but the fans that would come to games would boo, because they came to see him hit. He swung more to please his fans, which lowered both his average and walk rate. I actually think he could have made it as a major league outfielder if he had dedicated himself to that instead of basketball, but not near the level that he reached in hoops.
  22. kramnoj
    I'm curious to know if there is anything Gagne or Mota could do (on the field) that would result in them being cut. We have heard that the team is looking for another arm. Assuming that the team finds somebody, who is likely to be removed from the roster? I don't think there is anybody else the team could send down (assuming the team doesn't do something insipid like send down Villenueva). I'm not sure I totally understand the thinking of the FO here. Maybe they are trying to pull a reverse Linebrink: Maybe they are trying to right Mota so that they can dump him to another contender and then they can go trade for another arm that they want. If the team trades for another arm and then has to DFA Mota, I don't see the point of weakening the roster until the trade occurs. I guess they could just be CYA. If they can't make a deal they like for an arm, they didn't DFA Mota and they can still bring back Stetter in September.
  23. kramnoj
    When you add that Bush will likely make $6-8 million less than Suppan next year Bush is by far the better value. Just about any regular player that is pre-FA is going to be more valuable than a sought after FA. As far as counting on Bush to throw 200 IP, that he has done so once doesn't mean we can count on him to do so in the future. Since Suppan has become a full time starter in 1999, he has thrown 200 IP 6 times.
  24. kramnoj
    Zone Rating can be found on ESPN's stats section: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/fielding?groupId=9 Data goes back to 2001. I believe it is generally accepted that you need two years worth of defensive stats to get a comfortable sample size. Zone Rating is the basis for mgl's UZR, which has been considered one of the best defensive ratings for most of the baseball internet era. It is defined on ESPN's site as "Zone rating. The percentage of balls fielded by a player in his typical defensive "zone," as measured by STATS, Inc." If you would like a more depth look at ZR, I highly recommend this detailed explanation and discussion. It also includes the grid that was used a few years ago (I don't know if the grid is static or changes): http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/what_is_zone_rating/
  25. kramnoj
    That $6 million a marginal win. Not a very good way to spend money. If Suppan is traded his deal was a decent one, if not it isn't. It's too early to say this. You don't know what a marginal win will cost in 2009 and 2010. And if the Brewers make the playoffs this year. that alone might make the deal worth it to the team (not in a financial sense, but in a marketing sense).
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