bill hAll Star

He just won a gold glove. So a gold glove CF that has a declining bat (if this is true) is worth, what, $9-10 million/year? So we're burning $6-7 million/year for a few years on Cain if his bat is truly gone. I think the Brewers currently have pretty clean books after this year, comparatively.

If the Red Sox are dead set on resetting their number, they get very close to it by just non-tendering JBJ. Cot's projects them at ~$12m over with everyone's arby projections and they can cut ~$11 of that by just dropping JBJ. So I don't think they need do any drastic moves. Maybe they'll take one stud player (Betts, Martinez) and trade for a package of prospects after dropping JBJ and they have all the wiggle room that they'll need then. They could also just give away Price to a team and pay half of his contract or something. That would also do it.

Given how last year went for Cain, I cannot imagine the Red Sox doing something like this. They aren't that motivated to get under the tax. They'll just nontender JBJ most likely and do not need to add a sweetener.

Seager had to have Tommy John surgery and was recovering from that in 2019. Are there other major injuries he's had? I think he missed a few weeks one season but that's it, otherwise. The counterpoint is that if you can acquire a guy that was a 7 WAR shortstop that is 25 years old because he was coming off of Tommy John surgery for only a reliever (yes, I know, the most important reliever in baseball) - you might be getting an extreme value even if he has less control.

No money to get 2 SPs and re-sign Moose and Seager's $6M and arby guys. Pomeranz will be about $5M too. Imo Freitas isn't even on Stearns' radar for a roster spot. They couldn't trust him to catch even one inning when Pina was hurt, so I can't imagine he would be any kind of a backup except at AAA. I'll add again that I can't imagine the Dodgers even getting close to making this deal, but if they would...sign me up. Seager + Pomeranz = $13m AAV, $11 for Moose... He said "tier 2" but I think the Brewers would have roughly $15-20m AAV for one last big splash like a backloaded tier 2 pitcher or Grandal. Again, the Dodgers would not make this trade, though.

Turner is 35 this year and on the final year of his deal. Seager, who I'm advocating they keep instead of trading for Hader, has 2 years left. Hernandez has 1 year left, Taylor 2. They're going to need all of this next wave to cover their infield. If I'm the Dodgers, I keep them all and continue to dominate the division from 2022-2025 instead of trade one of my guys for 2020-2021 (and more from the minors, potentially) for 8 innings of Josh Hader in the playoffs.

Their system has been loaded for a decade and they've barely given anyone up in a trade. Willie Calhoun and some other fodder. They're pretty smart. I know that some will say, "yeah, but they didn't win a World Series so they need to do something" but they've been, what, a handful of outs away 2 years ago and in the game last year. Maybe ownership or fans light a fire under their management to do something shortsighted, but if I'm the Dodgers, I just keep churning out head-and-shoulders the best team in the NL on aggregate and eventually if I get there 5, 10 more times...luck will finally even out. I wouldn't give up a huge portion of my franchise in hopes that Josh Hader pitches well for 8 innings 5 months into the season. They can wait on this one unless they think the Padres are going to come roaring out of the gates this season. I guess we have different views on what "a huge portion of the franchise" is. Seager is very good, but they have several ready-made replacements for him, including one in Lux who some consider the best prospect in MLB. Rios and Wong are simply fillers for them. They wouldn't be trading any of those precious high-end prospects that they have been so wont to hang onto. But Seager, Rios and Wong would all be hugely valuable to a team like the Brewers that has big organizational holes at all 3 spots. The Dodgers are really good because they hoard these guys. They were able to still win the division with half of their team injured in 2018 because of this. There are certain times where I am willing to trade a "blocked" guy away or the blocker away, but if I can keep them on my roster and have minimal other holes...why not keep them? The Dodgers have a very high payroll and the ability to do this. The Dodgers can just start Seager with Lux at 2B and either trade Taylor or just keep him as their super utility guy yet again given that they like to platoon. This is even more likely with the 26 man roster. If the Dodgers want an elite player they can just open up their checkbook and sign a free agent instead of giving up a chunk of prospects or a good MLB player.

Brad Miller in limited plate appearances was on pace to be as good or better than Choi this year.

Is it really overreacting, though, when it would be addressing a problem that has spanned several seasons now? The above trade scenario would be far from "sending the farm for a reliever". Seager, the centerpiece of the deal, has Gavin Lux bearing down on him for playing time, not to mention Chris Taylor and Keke Hernandez that can play there as well. They also have a blue chip SS prospect in Jeter Downs and another very good one in Jacob Amaya. Rios is blocked by several players at 1B, as is Wong at C. That system is simply loaded ... which makes it all the more likely that they eventually use some of those prospects as currency to shore up problem areas of the ML roster. Their system has been loaded for a decade and they've barely given anyone up in a trade. Willie Calhoun and some other fodder. They're pretty smart. I know that some will say, "yeah, but they didn't win a World Series so they need to do something" but they've been, what, a handful of outs away 2 years ago and in the game last year. Maybe ownership or fans light a fire under their management to do something shortsighted, but if I'm the Dodgers, I just keep churning out head-and-shoulders the best team in the NL on aggregate and eventually if I get there 5, 10 more times...luck will finally even out. I wouldn't give up a huge portion of my franchise in hopes that Josh Hader pitches well for 8 innings 5 months into the season. They can wait on this one unless they think the Padres are going to come roaring out of the gates this season. As JosephC pointed out, the Dodgers had a good bullpen in the regular season. If I'm the Dodgers and I have my usual 10+ game lead in July, then I deal for 4 stud relievers. Maybe I even look to trade for Josh Hader then if the Brewers aren't pitching well...but there's minimal point in doing it now. Hader would be "useless" for 5 months because they're going to win the division with or without him.

The Dodgers are an organization IMO that will fix their bullpen in other ways than sending the farm for a reliever. They also aren't one to overreact to one little thing like that. They could just go into the season, build their standard 15 game lead, and trade for 4 Daniel Hudsons at the deadline for less than they'd have to give up to get Hader.

Depends on if we're using the juiced ball or not. Hiura is probably an .825-.850 OPS guy with the old ball.

It doesn't always work this way but the Brewers had a better team and... Yelich missed the end of the year Knebel was out Hiura wasn't up all year Burnes was a dud, he could turn it around with some adjustments They will have to decide whether or how to replace Mous/Grandal But the Brewers could run the same team out there with a similar payroll (maybe some long-term commitments to Mous/Grandal) and they could win 95 games next year. That's in the realm of possibility The Cubs: Bryant was a bit beat up and Contreras missed some time Hamels was helpful and he's a FA Lester is older The only good bullpen pieces are all FAs (Kintzler/Cishek) Castellanos saved them last year, he'll command a big payday to return This is kinda why I think they may do something unexpected this offseason (and they've hinted at it) and trade one of their prized core pieces. They could run everyone back out there and make a big signing on top of it and still only win 88 games. I think they may try to shuffle the deck this offseason because I think it's inevitable already that they are inferior to the Brewers and Cards and the Reds may even get in the mix this coming season. The only way I see this fixed is if they bring back Castellanos AND are creative and basically bring in 6 or 7 new low-mid priced pitchers with the remaining money to basically cover for the departure of Hamels and rework the bullpen with a bunch of solid long/matchup guys somewhat similar to the Brewers.

Exactly. The comments have been, "they have lots of money and can spend to be competitive." That's only somewhat true. That means not only do superstar players have to become available, the Cubs have to win the extremely high bidding or take on a risk by absorbing a contract in trade. So in 2 years, who are the Cubs going to sign to improve their 75 win team on paper to a 90+ win team? They can either go all-in again on Rizzo, Bryant, etc. or the main crop of guys available is like Kenley Jansen and Kluber in their mid/late 30s. And for 2020 and 2021, they have a little bit of room to spend but they have a lot of holes and, once again, no farm system. I'm actually predicting a fairly drastic offseason for them where somebody like Rizzo or Baez or Bryant are dealt. If not, they are inevitably going to collapse. So are the Brewers in 2022 but they are slightly better than the current Cubs and we know this is coming as a small market team anyways.

Doesn't Darvish have four years left? Thought he signed a six-year contract. Their roster after 2021 is: Jason Heyward (32 years old, 2 years left) Yu Darvish (35 years old, 2 years left) Kyle Hendricks (32 years old, 2 years left) Willson Contreras (30 years old, 1 year left) David Bote (who cares) Right, thanks for the clarification. So that is their core in 2 years with zero farm system coming up behind it. You could potentially add Rizzo to like a 3 year, $60 million deal or Baez to a 5/$130 deal and a few overpriced pitchers to that group and it looks a lot like the Giants roster ~2 years ago.

I know that Maddon's bullpen usage was not optimal, including using one guy for one out every single day or something like that...but their bullpen was also hot garbage for the past 2 years. So they'll have to fix that if they want to actually fix their bullpen.

The dirty little secret is that if you have $100 million in a given year to spend on your rotation alone, you have a slight leg up on the bullpenning teams. The Brewers need to cobble together 5-6 pitchers in a given night and worry about rest, matchups, etc. while these other teams can pitch an ace into the 6th or 7th (or later) and just have to worry about having 2 guys waiting behind just in case. Kudos to the Nats who are playing it smart...I never really understood the, "lol Nats bullpen" stuff because as we've seen - you only need to go 3 deep in close games. So, yes, good starting pitching should be coveted. There are about 20 guys on the planet that are this good and all of them in the free market will get $150+ million and $25+ million/year. If you're down to the Jhoulys Chacin or Zach Davies level of player...you bullpen the 2nd half (or more) of the game because it's the smart thing to do. You don't try to squeeze 115 pitches out of him because you want him to be a bulldog and try to pitch through the 7th or whatever "because Justin Verlander does."

The Cubs have money and can spend to stay competitive in the next few years but it could be a very stupid idea come 2022. At some point I think they'll need a rebuild or they're just going to sit on a treadmill of 85 wins. Their only World Series victory in over 100 years is due to taking 3-4 years to rebuild and replenish the farm system. Take a look at the recent trend of the Giants, a similar large market bully. The impending end of the Bryant/Rizzo/Lester contracts and primes + Baez (who may still have some prime left) needing to be paid is similar to the years as Lincecum, MadBum, Cain, Posey began to regress. That happened at different times but the Cubs could easily have a giant payroll of garbage in 2-3 years if they're not careful.

Unlike some clubs (Pirates, Reds, Brewers, Royals, etc...) the Cubs have the money to buy just about any FA they want. Plus they have the cash to re-sign their own players if they so choose and to take on huge contracts for players rebuilding teams are trying to get off the books. I don't see them being in the dumpster fire catagory. Once again, as I noted above, please see: Cubs, 2010-2014. They definitely could re-sign Baez and maybe Bryant/Rizzo as they see fit and then buy a pitcher or two, but their entire core of useful players is aging or gone in 2 years. Might be time to rebuild again as they did in 2010 when they traded away Soriano (a bit too late), Garza, let Aramis walk, etc. Their roster after 2021 is: Jason Heyward (32 years old, 2 years left) Yu Darvish (35 years old, 2 years left) Kyle Hendricks (32 years old, 2 years left) Willson Contreras (30 years old, 1 year left) David Bote (who cares) That already takes up roughly $60 million of payroll. Now, most teams have a pretty empty roster starting in 2021...except the Cubs have no farm system and their team is already aging. They're actually already at a crossroads. Either they have to trust that putting a guy that made a good pretend Spring Training pep talk to a team that is sinking/aging is going to get them back to 95+ wins or are they going to do something drastic? Because it's going to come completely crashing down in 2 years if they stick with the same core and can't improve with less payroll open this year than you'd think (they already have something like $160 million committed) and no pitching depth.

With the revenue they have they should be able to avoid dumpster fire level of bad. They can just go buy more pieces. I think Ross will do fine, seemed to have a ton of respect when he was in his last few years playing. I think that would carry over, he'll get the most out of what he has. I don't think they'll want to do this, though. Theo might jump ship if this season doesn't go well and the new guy will probably trade Darvish and/or Hendricks and tank/build for a year or three as they did in the early 2010s. It's possible that they also use their somewhat clean books to try to bully their way back into contention but that may be a disaster in its own way.

My take is that he's probably going to be fine but their roster is likely going to be a dumpster fire in 2 years unless they get really weird this offseason...and the roster may need help as soon as this year.

He just had one of his best years at age 30. I'd gamble on there being at least 1 or 2 years of elite/very good performance left. That's really all I'd hope for. Assuming 3 years for Mous/Grandal (and I could see maybe longer), the strain year is 2022. Maybe Cain, Grandal, and Moose have all started to regress or one of them is completely done and you have Hader far into arbitration, Woodruff in arbitration, and Yelich making his highest salary. At that point you can decide to just go in one more time and sell at the deadline or see if you can move some parts around. It's also possible that that group is better than we think. Hopefully some reinforcements are ready from the minors by then. It's not ideal, but I'm not sure what else we'd reasonably do. Maybe some shorter impact contracts is doable but I don't see Mark doing a Cleveland thing and selling now to win now and later (i.e. trading Hader for prospects while still remaining competitive).

Cain, Braun, [Moose/Grandal buyouts], Yelich, Thames, Knebel, Davies, Hader is roughly $65 million for 7 players Woodruff, Hiura, Burnes, Peralta, Claudio, Black, Faria, Pina, Claudio, Suter, Gamel, Houser, Spangenberg is roughly $15-20 million let's say for 14 players. These don't have to be the exact players as they could easily just cut ties with Arcia or Burnes could be in the minors, but roughly the same idea. If one believes that they can get up to the $125-130 mark again for their (now) 26 man roster, they will probably have $40-45 million to spend on 5 players. They could backload if they want to, but Mous at $12 million, Grandal at $17 million, Pomeranz at $7 million is $35 for 3 players. For the final 2 spots, they could then choose to bring back Nelson for ~$5 or Anderson for $8.5 or go external for one more reliever and a depth infielder in some combination. Or I guess keep Shaw, but that means Thames is likely not picked up. That gets you to right around $125 for your 26 man, just north of $130 for the 40-man.

I am generally in agreement about guys past 31 or so starting to fade. I think Cain's fade me be overblown given the finger injury. That said, we probably have a 3 year window here, like it or not. We could drastically change things by dealing Hader, Woodruff, Yelich, etc. but knowing Attanasio, we're going to ride out the 3 years of Yelich and 4 years of Hader/Woodruff and only trade one of them if things begin to look bleak. And it makes some sense. The Cubs are in a bit of disarray even though they have the talent to continue to press the Brewers, the Cards are alright, the Pirates are a dumpster fire, and the Reds might have a good team next year but might go right back into the dumpster if not. So, if you end up with: Grandal 3/$57 (as suggested earlier in the thread) Mous 3/$40 (?) Throw in Pomeranz at 2/$15 I think you can fit that in along with Thames while nontendering Shaw, Nelson, and maybe declining Anderson, though that I'm not sure of. Could it all collapse and we're sitting with $45 million of dead money for 2021 and 2022 with Cain, Mous, Grandal? Maybe (though unlikely all of them). My question is really, outside of some shrewd major trades, what is the alternative? Sure, we can save the cash and not go 3-4 years on some of these guys and we'll be considerably worse with the MVP in his prime for cheap on our roster. I might be a bit more scared if things get up closer to 4-5 years, but while I trust Stearns to work some magic, we're probably looking at hitting the refresh button in 2023 anyways. Is it going to be the end of the world if Grandal/Moose are riding out their final year on the roster on a 70 win team?

Bring back the 90s logo/color scheme, you cowards.

Exactly, which is why I don't want the Rockies as a trading partner unless it involves Arenado... But Trevor Story falling off a cliff from Coors numbers is still a great player. I would love to have a .780 OPS shortstop that hits 25-30 homers and plays great defense. I'd maybe even shoot a little higher on the projections if the juiced ball stays in play.