bill hAll Star

I don't know. You have to look pretty far back to find any significant stretch of competence in that guy's career. I suppose he is on the younger side, though, and would come cheap. He came flying out of the gates last year after adding a few MPH to his pitches. I think the league caught up or luck ran out, but maybe he could harness some of that in even more of a relief role.

25 is pretty old for this league and as we all know by now, the PCL is a hitting haven and the juiced ball made it a joke last season. Some of these guys have just mastered crushing the bad, journeyman pitchers in a great hitting environment. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/leader.cgi?request=1&type=bat&year=2019&group=Minors&sort_by=batting_avg Look at all the 25+ year olds that you've never heard of hitting .310+ with tons of power in the PCL/AAA.

The Rays prefer to have a competitive team every year (if they weren't in the AL East, they'd probably have several more division titles) that also lines their owners' pockets with low payroll. They're always good at restocking their farm and having great depth. The Padres had been rebuilding for years in an earnest effort to build a winning window. Well, it's here and I'm thinking that ownership is telling them to push more chips in the middle instead of waiting around for these prospects to maybe or maybe not pan out while the Dodgers are winning the division by 12 games. Sadly, they probably just will shave the division margin for the Dodgers by a few games, but they're trying. Maybe they'll have 3-4 great seasons by their standards or maybe they will look around the league in 5 years and realize they traded one Wild Card entry for a bunch of very good players that they gave away.

There is a devaluation of starting pitching because teams have realized if you do not have Morton, Snell, etc. that you should use your bullpen more from the 5th inning on. Well, the Rays have Morton, Snell, Glasnow, etc. Also, they've realized if you have some lockdown relievers (that they have cultivated themselves), you can still protect Snell the 3rd time through the order or let him run his pitch count up to get through only 4 or 5 innings on a night that he isn't mowing down the other lineup. I'm not sure if the Rays have ever given away a player that will be actually really good just to cut costs. They gave Longoria away because he was about to fall off a cliff through his mid 30s while locked up for like 7 years. The Rays have Snell for his ages 27-30 seasons. And they're probably losing Morton after this year ($15m) because I believe he is retiring. I would imagine Snell could be nearly as effective as Hader if they made him a reliever. They won't, because he's very effective for 5-7 innings per night instead of 1-2.

If the Brewers had 4-5 great starting pitchers, I would not trade one for a reliever. "Depth" in the starting pitching department is not something you just trade away because you have too much of it. So I don't really see the Rays doing it, either.

Seager's club option turns into a player option (or just guaranteed?) if he gets traded, so it's more like 3/$52. That said, I'd take it. He's essentially 1 year older Mike Moustakas but does have some injury concerns.

I'd take Lowrie/Smith and really just take the "house money" idea on Lowrie. You'd essentially be trading Shaw/Thames for Lowrie/Smith in terms of 2020 salary and production. Both packages would cost roughly $11-12 million. Shaw and Lowrie probably would have similar expectations for different reasons. I wouldn't be shocked if Smith is Thames-ish in his production for 2020 alone. Except you get Smith's upside and 4 more years of control after this one.

I know that Glasnow has arm issues and Snell has been up-and-down, but Glasnow or Snell AND McKay? Why would the Rays do that? The Rays are also loaded with infield prospects and at worst can platoon Lowe/Brousseau, which is pretty good. Probably almost as good as having Hiura when you factor in defense.

I think they need some other stuff to happen in order for them to gain 10+ games in the standings. Even if they beat the Brewers a handful of extra times that hurts.

I see this move as similar to Kirk Cousins signing with the Vikings. Is it a deal that may burn them either with his contract or the fact that they lose other guys 3-5 years from now? Yes. However, does it make a division competitor a good enough team to challenge us for a playoff spot when we have Yelich/Rodgers in their short prime/contracted windows? Also yes. I'd probably have preferred the Reds and Vikings to trot out some diamond in the rough minor leaguer or 3rd round draft pick or Case Keenum at QB instead.

I think the more logical trade does not involve Hader and brings back Corey's brother. I was initially of the mindset that Moustakas and Kyle Seager (he seems to be back from injury) were similarly valued players but I thought you could get Moose for 2 years, therefore just go with that. Now I'm thinking Seattle would be willing to give him away for a pretty weak package of prospects and Kyle Seager will cost you basically Moose's contract with 1 less year. I'll stop beating the dead horse but I think the Dodgers would still like to keep Corey Seager, even with just 2 years of control left. He had the Tommy John and some other shorter-term injury issues but if he's healthy and on his game, he's a 6 WAR player. I'm not sure Hader is enough for that even with an extra year or two of control.

It's December 2nd. If anything, the market has shifted back to more normal. Prior to the last 2 offseasons, teams spent all their money in December...and the teams that "won" the offseason generally waited until everyone else spent all their money and got solid players at bargain rates. So if anything this is a return to the norm and overall good news for the Brewers(and baseball in general). Over the long haul I think it's good for the Brewers but I do think this offseason it would be nice to get some tier B guys on 1-2 year deals. We're probably in the back-end of a contention window so Mark would be willing to overpay...but not this much.

I love Moose ... but $64 million guaranteed? That is bonkers. That contract has the big possibility of blowing up in the Reds faces. That team continues to be a rudderless ship. I can definitely see where he won't be worth $16M per season after two years. I can't see it blowing up in their faces though. How long is Votto signed up for? Through social security? Moose can move to 1B, if he loses steps. Votto is signed up for 4 years just like Moose. 4/$100 left for Votto, 4/$64 for Mous.

I get that. And yes some of the proposals are slanted in the Brewers favor pretty significantly. There definitely is a pretty significant sweet spot where it makes sense to use some of their excess to win now, especially with how good they are at developing. Lux might be too good, but maybe one of those 2 catchers and May or another good pitcher would make sense. Also I generally feel like you are underestimating Hader's value a bit. The drop-off from Hader to Betances is huge...and the drop-off from Betances to everyone else is even bigger. Hader over the last 2 combined years is 2nd in WAR to Kirby Yates. But the issue here is that it essentially doesn't matter for "winning now." They're going to win now and be the #1 seed in all likelihood. Why remove your pieces to also win from 2021-2025 to win the division by 14 games instead of 11 games in 2020? It's an incredibly simple idea to think that Hader will be the reason you win in the playoffs. Maybe he helps but I personally don't really believe that will be the magic potion. I'd rather have 5-7 better chances in the future instead of a slightly improved 1 right now.

I believe Chapman extended with the Yankees, so that's out. Betances is available and they have deep pockets, but plenty of other teams will be involved in the bidding AND he's not a much bigger wildcard than Hader...and probably not as good, and not LH. This isn't a situation where "the Dodgers bullpen sucked, therefore they'll pay triple the value of Hader to fix their problem". I'm sure they'll weigh out the asking price versus ability to add value elsewhere. It's an indisputable fact that the Dodgers and Brewers match up very well in a Hader deal...but also the Dodgers pretty much match up with everyone's needs because they basically have a surplus of elite everything except RP. Well I think this is exactly a situation of fans thinking one of the best front offices in baseball is absolutely going to say, "we had bullpen issues in one playoff series, we're going to pay triple the value of Hader to fix it." That is where all of these trade proposals are coming from. The Dodgers can and should just continue their pipeline of cheap, excellent talent and supplementing positions of need with their mountains of cash. Just because some fluky stuff has happened to them in the playoffs does not mean they should deviate from that and do something silly. The Dodgers may not need Lux this year, but Turner is getting old and his contract is done this year. So they can just shift Seager to 3B and have Lux play SS after that or some similar iteration of that plan. The two trades they almost dealt Bellinger (reportedly) were for Darvish and Dozier...they held on tight and got a much better deal on Darvish. And it looks like that paid off. So they're not just going to throw away Lux or Verdugo. Those guys will also be really good players, probably more valuable than Hader, especially because they can pay those guys a small amount of $ and pay a Hader-caliber player at reliever or another position with the savings.

Here's what the Dodgers can do instead: Keep Verdugo and May Sign Chapman, Betances, and any other best reliever on the market Trade for a Daniel Hudson caliber reliever at the deadline for a nothing prospect. Win the division by 10 games this year and the next 7 years. Eventually they'll win a World Series. Trading for Josh Hader does not put magic potion on a playoff series. It sounds fun as a fan to say, "well they had bullpen problems and Josh Hader can fix that." That's incredibly fluky. Hader could get hurt, struggle for a game, or maybe they lose for completely different reasons. And they can bring in nearly as good of relievers just buy spending cash.

This would be a bad trade but if it was really the case, I'd decline McCann and tell the White Sox to keep him. He's due likely about $6 million in arbitration next year, offsetting the Hader savings and then some...and he's not nearly as good of a hitter as his numbers were last year. That was a huge aberration. Cease is former top25 prospect that had his first cup of tea of MLB experience. Good chance at being a ToR SP with 6yrs control and ready to go for 2020. McCann is just something better to add to the C situation. Maybe you'd ask for someone else added since youre not liking the idea? You're countering the McCann expense by inserting a SP making preArb. Vs paying some money for a FA out there. Rather than a huge contract to Wheeler, you have a Wheeler or better in the making at peanuts Yes, I'm suggesting someone other than McCann. There's no reason for the Brewers to take on $6 million in cash this year to add essentially a backup catcher. Cease could be good. I'd welcome him in any trade the Brewers make. But I would stop short of saying he will be as good as Wheeler has been. Cease could be another one of those pitchers that just never develops with the "stuff" and is a 5 ERA guy. He could basically flame out as Wily Peralta did.

This would be a bad trade but if it was really the case, I'd decline McCann and tell the White Sox to keep him. He's due likely about $6 million in arbitration next year, offsetting the Hader savings and then some...and he's not nearly as good of a hitter as his numbers were last year. That was a huge aberration.

Gibson got very sick in Spring Training last year with an intestinal issue, apparently, and came out of the gates slow and ran out of gas late in the year. I think that in 2018 he showed that he was effective with a better pitch mix. I'm not crying about the Brewers not making this deal or anything but I think he'll be better than some people think.

I'll add my same thought in here that trading one of their prized prospects or even probably Seager for Josh Hader is something very un-Dodgers. I don't see Hader fetching Lux, Seager, etc...the Dodgers will just fill the void with money given that they already have a dominant team locked up for way under their standard budget. They can just go out and sign Strasburg, Chapman, and maybe another good player while still keeping Lux, Seager, etc. Then they'll win the division by 10+ games again and try their luck with Chapman plus the 2-3 good relievers they traded for at the deadline. I know that anyone else's counter-argument will be that "they need a reliever to put them over the top" but that is foolish and not how the Dodgers think.

I would not do Frazier/Andujar. Something about Frazier just screams "Yankees overhyped prospect" to me. He's basically Trent Grisham. No thanks. The Brewers should do this if they get elite players in return or I may live with the solid cost control of Smith/McNeil with upside. If they want replacement-level guys, they should just sign Corey Dickerson for $3 million or whatever he'll command instead of trade for Clint Frazier. The Brewers have money to spend this offseason. They shouldn't be looking to cut corners. However, I would take an elite player or two very good players at cost control for 5-6 years. I would not take a few versions of Trent Grisham just so Attanasio can buy another yacht.

Aguilar has been DFA’ed.

What are you going to do with Cain's saved money? Not only does Seattle have zero reason to send equal cash in and cash out for a guy that won't help them in the future, you're basically chopping 1-5 WAR off of the Brewers just so you can be a frugal fan and say, "well, at least we don't have that bad contract!" Unless you're planning on spending the cash on another contract of Cain's ilk that will turn into 2020 Cain contract situation anyways. Then...fine, I guess. But again, most importantly here...I cannot see any reason for Seattle to do this. They get a risky Cain contract sitting on their books while they tank and then have an extra year of burden at the end. Why?

FWIW, the 2022 year is a club option. Cot's has it at $15 and can go to $20 with performance-based incentives...buyout would be $0-$3m and I'm thinking it may be closer to $0 given his injuries in recent years. I'd still want some cash on the 2 years if we really went that route, though. If it's essentially a cash dump on Seager, that's an interesting idea, although I feel like the Mariners may be at a place where they don't want to do such things. They will run about a $100 million payroll this year but then drop way down as of next year. Say it was a cash dump of Seager/Narvaez and say the Mariners send $5m/each for the next 2 seasons. Seager vs. Mous is probably a wash. So you've got probably 5-5 WAR in Seager/Narvaez for $18-20 million. Instead, you'd have had 7 WAR out of Yas/Mous for $26-30 million. But you'd get basically both Narvaez/Seager for 2-3 years given arby for Narvaez and the option for Seager. For Yas you'd have to have gone 4 and Moustakas might be 3-4.

I think some people missed D'arnaud coming back down to earth in the final 2 months of last season nearly back to his career norms with his final stat-line. He had one great partial season as a hitter in 2015 and otherwise has been "fine" as a hitter for a catcher...but not very good.