bill hAll Star

Rosenthal just tweeted that Gourriel will be the 3B when he's ready in a few weeks. Valbuena is a decent filler there that can play some DH or 1B. I guess Bregman could be used as a DH for this year and they can figure it out later, but I'm not sure that you want to use a SS with a bat like that in the OF down the road. Maybe Gourriel can switch to OF later, but I think Bregman is dealt for an arm.

Where is Alex Bregman getting dealt?

The innings number is a bit of a scare. He's been just as good away from Petco this year as he has in it. I will be the first to point out that it is a small sample away from there and that Boston won't be so kind...but Boston won't be so kind to any pitcher. 2.5 years + the ability to keep/extend/get comp pick for Pomeranz with durability/Petco risks known OR 6 years of a guy beginning at the earliest in 2019 that we have no idea will ever get to the majors. The Padres could definitely run away with this trade if Espinoza is legit, but I think the value is pretty fair given all the risks. EDIT: I forgot to add that he was the #5 pick with tons of talent. This has been noted by several on the thread.

Pomeranz is a good pitcher. I don't see this as a bad move for Boston.

Good list. As a small market, no reason to call up 1, 2, and 5 until September if there is even a reason to. There will be some hand-wringing, but they'll have to have an excuse to hold them down next April as well (this may only apply to Arcia).

Sure, that's the general stock answer. Of course that's what they'll do. I'm just saying if things go according to the assumed plan, this would be a good path. We know that Mark isn't going to wait around until 2021 to see a team even consider competing again. I'm not saying "buy 4 overpriced players at all costs" but I'll lay it out more generally. 2017: One more selloff year 2018-2020: $ to spend on short-term free agents/trades with first wave arriving. 2021+: Run your org like the Cardinals, current Astros, Cubs (with less $), etc. Have great minors depth + pipeline and buy a player or two when necessary. Of course this can all change. If Arcia/Hader/Phillips are looking like busts, you may have to push it back a year or two.

Before the dropoff: They played 7 series against good teams and won a bunch of close games. They played 14 series against poor teams and obviously pummeled them. Dropoff: Starting with the @Nats series, they've played 6 tough series with 2 Reds series (.500 in those) and a Braves makeup game sandwiched in. Luck dropped off a bit. Basically, they played a bunch of trash to open the season. They probably play 60-70% of their remaining schedule against teams that are trying so I'd guess they play at a "pretty good" clip (maybe 5-10 games over .500 for the last 70 or so games).

I'll take either end of the spectrum in prospects, but I don't mind the 19-year-old prospects coming back. 2017: Complete dumpster year. Nobody complains here. Arcia gets his feet wet. Maybe Phillips. Try to find another Villar-type acquisition. 2018: Sign a handful of 2-3 year veteran contracts and maybe one big one. You can compete here possibly but I still expect to lose out to the Cubs. That said, if Braun is dealt and mostly off the books, you can sign 3-4 high-priced players and try to keep some of their deals on the shorter end. Nelson, Davies, Lopez, Hader, Arcia, Phillips, Carter(?), Villar, Santana, and maybe a few other additions and you've got half of your roster for a total of probably $30 million/year. Mark can go out and overpay 4 guys to his heart's content as long as maybe only 1 of them is a very long-term deal. *Some would suggest that Braun could belong in that core. I'd rather get the prospects for him and sign a 29-year-old FA for 3-4 years. 2019-2020: Compete with the above group. Try to get the early extensions on Arcia, Phillips, etc. and absorb the $ here. At this point, I feel like our recent trades and picks will afford good AAA replacement-level depth (think Cards/Rays of the past few years). We can have the 3-4 very overpaid players and not have to worry about injuries destroying a season and needing to turn to Yuni Betancourt. 2021 and beyond: Wave 2 of prospects arrives.

I think Isan Diaz is a better prospect at this point, but there seems to be a bit of a double standard. Isan has been absolutely scorching the past month+ in Single A. This is good. He's still only 20 and has seemed to have figured out that level. He was terrible for the first month. Rijo doesn't have the slugging ability that Diaz does. I agree probably just a depth guy down the road, but he's only 20 and he's in AA ball. Not eye-popping stats at Rk/A/A+, but he was good enough as a very young player. It's possible that he packs on a bit of power as he hits his mid-20s and is a valuable player. Give Diaz some time to see if he can figure out AA at a very young age.

There are a ton that should be available: For 3B: The big one is Danny Valencia from the A's. After that there is Freese from the Pirates Then the Twins could move Nunez, the Marlins are still in it but they may still trade Pardo (being the Marlins and all), Beckham from the Braves perhaps. For 2B: The Twins should shop Dozier, Lawrie could be traded yet again, the Rockies could shop LeMaihu, the Padres could (and should) shop Solarte. Personal note...I will laugh at a team that trades for DJ Lemahieu and gives up any sort of value. The "All-Star" would have been sent down to the minors or made a utility man within the last few years by basically any other team in the league. He's improved in the last year or 2 to being probably a below average 2B (.685ish OPS), but washed up Aaron Hill is a way better hitter than DJ (.770 vs. .690 this year) and DJ will probably cost a lot more.

It's been touched on in almost every thread, but positional need doesn't matter to me. If you're too thin at one position or too loaded at another, you make a trade down the road. Just get the best player for now. This obviously excludes the situation where you trade for 7 catchers in a row or something...but within reason, position doesn't matter to me.

Stunk in the MLB and has been even worse in the minors this season. He started out on fire last year and maybe the league got the book on him. He's a guy if the price was very low I wouldn't mind acquiring for a bag of baseballs. He seems like a power guy that doesn't have the power to consistently get the ball out of Chavez Ravine. He's the proud owner of an .850 OPS away from that cavernous ballpark (to be fair, some of that damage was done in SF/SD, equally tough parks).

This year? I can't remember when the White Sox were a well run organization. They have been a mess for year and even when they won the World Series their decision making was pretty crappy. Even with their quick start, they haven't energized their fan base, I guess the cubs are the Chitown darlings for now. Yeah, I just mean that there was some national buzz about their hot start but it was so flawed. They've been run poorly in years past, no doubt. This is the culmination of it.

I've been very opinionated about how ridiculous the White Sox organization has been this year. It's a rudderless ship. I feel for their fans.

1 start in and maybe they want to send him back? HR machine.

Gattis is back at C and playing well. Not to say it wouldn't be an upgrade, but Gattis is hitting well enough to probably keep them out of the mix for Lucroy (if they're even still in contention).

I can't imagine Friedman doesn't see this, but Joc is a good fit given that he'd be a much better hitter in Miller Park. He can't get the ball out of Chavez Revine enough to be a good hitter there. He'd instantly turn into a high .700s/low .800s OPS guy and can be platooned. That said, I'm not sure he'd be what I'm looking for. Not a bad return, though.

The same team that just released an outfielder for $35mil? I doubt they want to invest millions in a new aging injury prone outfielder. Not to mention they have Thompson, Puig, and Pederson. No room for Braun. That team (yes, I realize Friedman is there now) took on something like a quarter of a billion dollars in order to get a battered Beckett and Adrian Gonzalez with Crawford. I'm not sure I agree that it's a great fit because I think I'd just roll with Puig, Pederson, Ethier, Van Slyke, Thompson, Hernandez, and Guerrero in some sort of platoon at each spot when those guys area healthy, but the big markets will knowingly overpay guys or know that they'll be a $30 million sunk cost over the last 2 years of their contract or something like that. If the Dodgers want to stay around $250 million, Braun could definitely be worked in. They could move him to 1B if they don't keep Adrian 2 year from now. All of that said, again, I'm not sure he's a great fit and they also have their TV contract fiasco, so maybe they're less inclined to take on $. But the fact that they just said "meh" and dumped a speed-based player that was foolishly signed past age 31 is probably an argument in favor of them taking on Braun. Braun probably profiles better late into his career, and if not...as it currently stands, that's just a sunk cost of getting a good player in.

Also, going back to the White Sox, I do not (and did not even when they were 12 games over .500 or whatever they were) believe that they have a good roster. Bullpen is dicey, Latos was the luckiest pitcher in baseball, Rodon struggling, and their offense is pretty terrible. If Abreu gets it going they'll be alright, but they are way too right-handed and have way too many holes (so yes, I agree with the LH bat idea above in that sense). They are trotting out the corpse of Jimmy Rollins at SS, Avisail Garcia or the MLB/AAA garbage bin at DH, Lawrie who can only hit lefties, and Frazier is even a flawed hitter. Most importantly for the White Sox is one more key injury and they're screwed. They have destroyed their farm system and did not draft well. Shields isn't really a velocity guy as it is, but these signs can't be encouraging for the White Sox. Maybe he cobbles together some value for 2016, but he could be an $11 million/year (factoring what the Padres are paying) garbage middle relief man as soon as next year: http://www.fangraphs.com/fgraphs/7059_P_FA_20160531.png

Shields is not a back end starter. He's still a solid #3. His ERA prior to his last start was 3.06. Sox may covet Braun and Lucroy, but they don't have nearly enough in their system to get either. They would prefer a lefty bat and would much prefer Carlos Gonzales over Braun, but again it's doubtful they can come up with a strong enough package. My guess is they end up with Jay Bruce. Reds will get back Garcia and a couple minor league arms. They have some decent arms other than Fulmer, enough to get a Bruce probably but not a Braun. They've already dealt with the Reds so their is rapport there. Petco Park, Petco Park, Petco Park. Shields is leading the league in HR allowed in arguably the best pitcher's park in all of baseball. Shields home ERA this year: 3.58 Shields away ERA this year: 5.16 To be fair, he's somewhat neutral taking out that beating he took at Safeco...but he hasn't been good. The other pitchers that the White Sox have been trotting out there have barely been worse. Shields' xFIP is not great this year and that high HR rate is going to kill him at US Cellular. As for Carlos Gonzalez being preferred over some of those other guys, Coors Field, Coors Field, Coors Field. I'm going to give you Carlos Gonzalez's career splits, and this includes a portion of a season playing for Oakland which I will consider negligible for now. Home: .323/.380/.605 for a .986 OPS Away: .259/.313./444 for a .742 OPS If Carlos Gonzalez gets traded, he's not very valuable. Look at Corey Dickerson, Cuddyer, and Tulowitzki for recent examples...and Tulo is at least playing in a pretty good hitter's park/division still. Outside of contract, Braun is about 10x more valuable than CarGo.

If Braun finished this season fairly healthy and was a free agent after 2016, I feel like he'd get as much or more of what he is currently slated to earn. Contract isn't a problem. Sure, if it was 2 years, $15 million or 5 years, $30 million remaining that would be helpful to trading him...but I don't see it as a hindrance.

Seems like salary relief for the Padres, though who knows what Tatis Jr. brings. I feel for White Sox fans. That team wasn't good to start the year, and with the fluke of a hot start, they now are buying guys that aren't really worth the price. If it's just $ and ownership doesn't mind, this deal could be worse...but Shields is barely an upgrade at this point. The White Sox remind me of the Angels in that it's basically Trout and Sale as top players in the league and the rest of the roster is just a mismanaged wasteland. Zero organizational depth hoping for a miracle to support their star.

I like what Hill has done, and this was my hope that he can coax up a little bit of trade value...but the question has to be asked...will the Mets be playing against the Reds for most or all of the playoffs? Montero is a bit much for Hill probably. Montero's star has faded a little bit, but I don't think Hill can fetch potentially 5 years of a useful pitcher.

Yes. I love acquiring affordable young hard-throwing lefties that were considered future aces until experiencing elbow problems. His elbow issues are behind him. He should get better as the year goes on. He should be on path to dominate next year. I don't think he'd be with us in 2020 on a new contract, but I could see us swapping him for a boatload of talent in 2018 or 19. He'd be just a piece...Braun currently would need several other prospects Until Matt Moore throws his slider again, he's not very valuable. His velocity is slowly rising back to pre-TJ norms, who knows if it will ever get there...but he's just an average/below average pitcher without that slider.

I'm a bit worried about Matt Moore. Maybe he's slowly coming around after the 2014 Tommy John, but his numbers scare me. He came into the league throwing 94-95 and a slider. He's now throwing 92-93 and he ditched the slider. Not someone I'm willing to take a risk on to only flip again in 2 years, because I doubt he's part of our contention window.