bill hAll Star
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Everything posted by bill hAll Star
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Those castoffs did fine and probably are decent middle relievers. The defense was crap for the Cubs, the run scored on Cahill was a bit of a fluke on a swinging strike 3...granted, right after the Cubs got lucky to not allow more with the ivy play, but the OF shouldn't have even dove for the ball, so again, the Cubs defense. The 2 runs were scored on Justin Grimm, who has been a good reliever all year, once again surrounded by crappy defense. Hendricks seemed like he was getting smoked with the wind blowing out. He was a few Mets' baserunning themselves out of innings away from giving up 4 runs over those innings. -
The Brewers have arguably 3 of the top 5 or so "5 year outlook" teams in their division right now, and the Reds' rebuild probably won't be pathetic either since they have a few pieces in place. I'm not a fan of "we need to fill this position at all costs" methodology as it is, but it would be downright laughable if they were worried about filling 3B right now. This rebuild (especially due to divisional competition) is probably going to take 3 years at least. Why is anyone worried about filling 3B? You still have time to draft a stud (and fill with a stopgap vet if the rebuild goes quickly), trade for a stud prospect...or, if in 2019 the Brewers look primed to be very competitive and are chalk full of young pre-arby players, go blow your FA money on a 3B. I don't care if Adam Lind plays third base for the next 2-3 years. It's the difference between 64 and 67 wins next year probably if you go out and get Daniel Murphy. There is no reason to freak out about filling a position when you have a multiple year rebuild. I thought Tom Haudricourt was the only one that harbored the worry about the deck chairs on the Titanic when it is already several hundred feet underwater.
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Trading Partner - LA Dodgers
bill hAll Star replied to pacopete4's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
Coors and roids inflation not withstanding, Braun just doesn't have the value of Tulo due to position/defense. If we assume Braun is forever an .850 guy in Miller Park and sliding downhill going forward, that's like acquiring a Shin-Soo Choo, a CarGo out of Coors, maybe even a Lind-type player. A good hitter at a corner position (not 3B) that plays OK defense. Tulowitzki, probably en equal hitter to this list when he's not in Coors plays a really good SS. His trade value is much, much higher. I'm not even sure we'd get the premium prospect. -
Trading Partner - LA Dodgers
bill hAll Star replied to pacopete4's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
While Grandal and Pederson hit swoons, I think the Dodgers will hold on to both of them. As the resident schedule analyst, I'd note at these two basically crushed a ton of HR @MIL, @Col, @AZ early in the season, both being guys that are lefties that crush bad RHP. The schedule was heavy towards those matchups early. Joc hit 10 HR in those stadiums against the atrocious RHP, almost all of those games were in the first half. Grandal got @Philly, @Mil, @AZ to make his season. Of course, both had issues. Joc was young and Grandal was injured. I think both guys are somewhere in the middle, but in neither case would I really spend much time "upgrading" to Braun or Lucroy (who would both also struggle playing half of their games at Dodger stadium) - and yes - I know that Braun has good career numbers there. -
To add to this "which I rather would not see win a World Series" - I am not going to lose sleep over it, but in terms of rivals, I've already resigned myself to the fact that the Cardinals will win 20+ more World Series in my lifetime and that I will likely never see the Brewers win one. If I'm being a jerk about it, I'd like to see a division/sports team rival like the Cubs toil in this baseball hell with me. Of course, it's over, and I think the Cubs are by far and away the best team left. They're probably going to win multiple titles now as well.
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I don't think Davis fits very well to Arizona. Pollock is locked into CF of course. Inciarte is nice in one of the corners but is probably the caliber of a really good 4th OF and you forgot about the excellent lefty bat of David Peralta. They have stud hitting prospect Peter O'Brien who quit catching and has moved to OF. So now we've got 4 starting-caliber OF and we also have to factor in that Arizona would probably just rather keep the platoon at 3B of Lamb/Tomas. Tomas was not very good in the field at all and Lamb was excellent, so they probably will just play Tomas at 3B against LHP and let him spell a corner OF spot every-so-often.. That now makes a 5th "start-able" outfielder in Arizona with a plus bat, and every one of them is younger than Khris except for Peralta, who is 4 months older than Davis and Pollock is essentially the same age as Khris. Arizona just traded away Davis' near statistical clone of Trumbo to attempt to clear the logjam and they probably still have too many outfielders. I get the idea of trying to slide Tomas to 3B, but I think they'll just keep Lamb and not make it so they have 6 plus-hitting OF on their roster if Davis is added. If Arizona gets a bit of pitching, they're definitely a darkhorse next year in my mind.
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I feel as though Maikel Franco projects to Aramis Ramirez. Comparison numbers-wise and with assumed defense feels almost perfect. I like Lamb but I think they are looking to platoon Lamb and Tomas at 3B going forward and have Tomas in the OF most days against RHP. I do like Lamb if available and Solarte/Asche might be solid undervalued pickups.
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Are you aware that Franco is a year younger than Kris Bryant and that his bat was just a notch below what Kris Bryant provided? Franco only played about half of the games is the issue. Franco hit 14 HR with an .840 OPS and .280 average in 80 games at age 22. Bryant hit 26 HR with an .855 OPS and .275 average (did have 13 steals) in 151 games at age 23. As for his defense, again, I'll defer as I'm not sure what his projection eventually is...but he was young. Franco was did have a negative dWAR this year and Bryant was in the positive...but we don't have a major picture to look at yet here. I'd like to imagine that Arcia is a 15-20 HR guy with a .300 average and ~.820 OPS and studly defense at SS. Franco is going to be 30+, .280, .900 OPS guy in his prime. I'd take Arcia, but it's not that far off.
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Are you guys talking about Maikel Franco? The player that's already about as valuable as Davis and Peralta combined and he's only 22? His WAR is 1.7 for a whole season where played in a sand box in Philly. He had a negative dWar. I'm not trying to sell the guy short but I'm just not sure I'd give up Davis & Peralta for the guy. Davis and a lesser player? Sure. But Peralta is too young to put in a trade for a 3B that could be a very similar hitter to Davis. Would you trade Orlando Arcia AND a prospect for a late-20s no defense power-only OF and a #4 starter with 3 years of team control?
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I like this idea but giving up Davis and Peralta better net a very good prospect. Are you guys talking about Maikel Franco? The player that's already about as valuable as Davis and Peralta combined and he's only 22?
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Yeah I just turned the game off after the Schwarber bomb.
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Pirates already have a mountain to climb.
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Unrelated, but I would find it hilarious if the Red Sox dumped Pedroia (2B), Hanley (whichever position Seager doesn't play), Porcello (#5 starter), and Sandoval (utility) on the Dodgers. Friedman probably has no interest and wants to use his money on Price, but I'd just find that funny.
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He has a .291 OBP this year.
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I'd love to send the Cards to the WC. Also, the Cards must beat the Cubs in said match and then lose in their first series. The Cubs not winning one is slightly ahead of the contempt for the Cards, simply because I've seen the Cards win one several times.
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Offseason deal with the Twins
bill hAll Star replied to bill hAll Star's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
If they had interest in Garza, it probably would mean Nolasco coming back. At this point, Nolasco has surged ahead in "might his 2018 option be a player option?" so that would be the risk. I would imagine given that I'd rather have Garza than Nolasco right now that it would be Garza for Nolasco and a decent reliever prospect or something like that. Of course, this is another one that might work out in a video game value machine but probably wouldn't ever happen. -
Offseason deal with the Twins
bill hAll Star replied to bill hAll Star's topic in Transaction Rumors & Proposals
I noted that they won't be trading their top prospects in this and, yeah, they do need pitching. I agree that they've compiled a set of garbage #4 starter-ish vets, but they are going to have a 70 million dollar pile of junk this coming year and they want to compete. I knew this thing wasn't completely realistic when posting due to the players being dealt, but at least I have some of the reasoning rooted in reality. The Twins are going to have to be creative if they want to be top-level competitive this coming year or maybe the next. I think they had a mirage first half to still be in it, but now are "pretty good" just due to having Sano on their roster. The prudent thing for them to do would be just to not make any huge $ moves this coming offseason, but I think they are even more anxious after several years of suckitude, which would cause them to be a bit creative unless they are going to raise the payroll a bit more. -
At least in mine, while acknowledging that it wasn't realistic, I at least had the respect to know that the Twins probably would not give up Sano unless it was for Kershaw, Trout, Harper, or Stanton.
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Yeah, that's why I'm not necessarily a fan of Span coming here. I'd take guys who have a lower stock at this point.
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You mean other than the player not performing and not being able to trade them? Even if Span can only get a one year deal, he could probably get a deal more than we would be willing to pay with a team better than us. I'm sure the Nats would take him back if he couldn't find a multi-year deal in free agency. Even if we're using the Feldman/Arrieta example. At the time of that trade Arrieta was a 27 year old with a 5.50 ERA. I don't even think the Cubs thought he would basically turn into a Cy Young contender. I'm not really seeing a whole lot of players at positions of need that would be willing to take a one year value building deal anyways. We should be more focused on maximizing the value of Lind, Lucroy, Davis, Segura and maybe Braun instead of looking for one year value buys that we could maybe flip later. Callaspo and Kelly Johnson turned into a few decent, younger prospects in the end for Atlanta. These are the type of guys I'd be looking at. Joyce, De Aza, etc. types. Not necessarily a Denard Span type, as I've mentioned. Of course, you're right that sometimes you can overspend to accomplish this.
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Yeah, let's call up outfielders that have a .670 OPS in AA and waste service time. I agree that I'd rather not block anyone, and therefore Santana at CF is OK...but at positions that aren't filled - I'm picking up cheap vets and flipping them at the deadline. Of course, I'm not doing it just to do it. If none of those options exist, well then I roll out a completely washed up AAAA guy for a little bit and then call up the young guy when he's ready.
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I'm not necessarily a fan of Denard Span - but if the team is actively rebuilding, there is plenty of value in picking up random free agents to buy low on. Of course I wouldn't want to block a young player that I want playing, but some buy-low contracts to flip for value at the deadline is exactly what smart GMs do.
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It depends what the motivation is. If it's to "win this year" then it is stupid. If it's to be shrewd like a particular team did to get a decent veteran on a 1-year deal for a rebuilding team to later flip at the deadline that sometimes turns into a useful player down the road then I'm a fan. Span may not be the guy, but I do want the Brewers to seek out as many 1-year deals, or maybe extremely undervalued 2-year deals they can find to flip at the deadline.
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This response is only partially related to your post, but I would love the Brewers to do something like target undervalued players like Grandal. The Padres thought they were upgrading by getting Derek Norris (stats propped up by platoon advantage in Oakland) after jettisoning Grandal (they never looked at his splits, apparently). Of course, while Norris is a good defensive catcher, the stats this year have shown just how much they didn't understand the situation on the offensive side. This is what the Brewers need to do over the next few years. I'd love to see a young GM who sees stuff like that to target.
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I am not particularly a fan of Wood, but this is the strategy that needs to be enacted. I'm all for bringing in the Travis Wood, Matt Joyce, and Kelly Johnsons of the world. A smart GM (like Theo) will find the undervalued ones (kinda like Scott Feldman) and plug them in to be successful. Then, a smart GM (like Theo) will do something like trade one as a rental for Jake Arrieta. Of course, that's the best-case scenario, but these moves don't hurt.
