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nsimps

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Everything posted by nsimps

  1. nsimps
    When you've already left 11 men on base, trying to get the runners 90 feet up for you 3 and 4 hitters is not that bad of an idea.
  2. nsimps
    2006 Milwaukee Brewer Pre-season predictions Team Record 2006 Record: 89 - 73 2006 Approx Record as of Sept 1: 78-59 2006 Predicted Finish within the NL Central: 2nd 2006 Playoff Predictions: Wild Card Offense- Individual Team Leaders with 502 PA Batting Average: Hardy .298 OPS: Jenkins .901 HR: Fielder 31 RBI: Lee 130 SB: Hart 20 Runs: Clark 101 Pitching- Individual Team Leaders Wins: Davis 20 Losses: Okha 12 Saves: Turnbow 41 WHIP: Sheets 1.21 IP: Davis 202 K: Sheets 165 ERA (among starters): Davis 3.01 ERA (among relievers): Wise 1.98 Team Awards Offensive MVP: Lee Team Cy Young: Davis Most Valuable New Addition: Bush Misc First player not on opening day roster recalled from Minors: Nelson Cruz First player on 25 man roster removed (via waivers, trade or optioned): Gabe Gross First Player on the DL: Ben Sheets League Awards AL MVP: Vladimir Guerrero NL MVP: Carlos Delgado AL Cy Young: C.C. Sabathia NL Cy Young: Roy Oswalt AL ROY: Ian Kinsler NL ROY: Prince Fielder Post Season AL Champs: Cleveland Indians NL Champs: Milwaukee Brewers WS Champs: Cleveland Indians
  3. nsimps
    Fielder strikes out swinging. I knew we shouldn't have traded Overbay. Hart with two RBIs on a ground rule double Trade Lee now!
  4. nsimps
    If I find "a lot" of people that are "pretty knowledgable" that agree with me can i just dismiss other people's opinions too? The fact is the first part of the study rests on the assumption that you can judge the affect of a base-stealer on first base by comparing it to all other batting situations the batter following them faces.
  5. nsimps
    What are you talking about? There are assumptions, but as your favorite bastion of knowledge Wikipedia says assumptions must be made carefully or they can lead to bad conclusions. Nobody says the assumptions have to be perfect, they just have to have some sembelance of reason behind them.
  6. nsimps
    The study is horribly flawed from the beginning when he starts by trying to "fix" his selection bias. How can you claim that a control is needed to remedy the possible bias due to difference in situations by measuring it agianst other situations that may or may not be the same?
  7. nsimps
    If we have a good fourth outfielder, is it unreasonable to expect him to get 3 starts and between 12-15 ABs a week?
  8. nsimps
    I agree with those that have said we should just wait and see. Hart should be on the roster at the start of '06 and should get at-bats to show what he can do at a major league level. There's no reason to extend his contract now or move his contract now. It would be nice to compete for at least the wildcard next year, and I don't see how we can do that without some certainty in our lineup.
  9. nsimps
    I think Lee might be traded at the deadline this season. If the Brewers are serious about contending this year it would be nice to have Hart and/or Cruz prove themselves at a Major League level before giving them a starting job.
  10. nsimps
    3 years is "well past"? Who was that guy that was 30 this past season and was one of our best hitters?
  11. nsimps
    The potential pitfalls of using the run scoring matrix: 1) Difference in batter strength in different situations. 2) I assume that the number of situations is not the same. If you take the mean of a situation that occurs more frequently vs. an event that happens less frequently outliers of the less frequent event can cause Type 1 errors. 3) An example of a mass aggregate would be the income of the United States. The per capita income is $40,000. Should we assume that most people make around $40,000 or should we recognize the limitations in using per capita? One thing remains constant in the Albert Pujols situation and that is Albert Pujols. What is the constant in the run scoring matrix? Is it simply the situation? Is that acceptable?
  12. nsimps
    No, Albert Pujols is an individual that controls his own stats. Putting him as part of a larger group clouds his individual contribution.
  13. nsimps
    I dismiss them because I don't think they are applicable, not because I don't like the conclusions. As I stated before, I don't think applying mass aggregates to specific situations is appropriate. You dismissed that by saying that you can make generalizations about the data. There is nothing implied or stated in the data that allows those generalizations. You found me out. I belong to the National Pro Sacrafice Bunting League. We search the internet looking for debates about the merits of sacrafice bunting.
  14. nsimps
    But there is no good statistical evidence that says a runner in scoring position with one out is worse than a runner on first with no outs. There is a time and place for bunting, especially when you need to just convert one run.
  15. nsimps
    I'm sorry I overstated it, but using means of large numbers of samples is not a very strong statistical approach. There is no way to know from the data given. The run scoring matrix doesn't give any indication of the difference in the situations. They may have simply been scenarios with the 5th hitter getting on to start an inning, etc. As for sacrificing, it depends on the individual batters. I'm not suggesting a .300 hitter bunt a runner over. It depends on the hitters behind a certain player and the particular probabilities of a certain player obtaining a certain result.
  16. nsimps
    I guess you don't get my point. If those run scoring statistics are so acurate, how can you discount them based on the batter? They also don't take into account any relative strengths of the batters that came up in the situations. Is the aggregate OPS of the batters that came up with a runner on first and no outs the same as the batters that came to bat with a runner on second and one out?
  17. nsimps
    So if the 8th batter gets on base with no outs the pitcher should swing away because there is a better chance of scoring a run?
  18. nsimps
    No they don't. They tell what has happened in the long history of baseball. It doesn't break down anything based on relative strength of the batters.
  19. nsimps
    Can you really base decisions on mass aggregates? Those numbers don't really tell much.
  20. nsimps
    I think most of the posts in the thread have pointed out that the "obvious facts" you speak of are neither obvious nor facts.
  21. nsimps
    How is range a function of putouts, assists and innings played?
  22. nsimps
    I don't think the lack of a pitching change was a problem. I thought the double switch should have been putting Hart or Magruder in right field and putting the pitcher in Jenks spot.
  23. nsimps
    Wouldn't that affect OBP or does it even out over the long run?
  24. nsimps
    Strikeout Hardy. That guy sucks.
  25. nsimps
    Maybe that JJ kid should be our everyday shortstop next year.
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