OldSchoolSnapper
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Everything posted by OldSchoolSnapper
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And that's why Quintana is my 3rd playoff starter. -
Turangasaurus Brice is on a roll.
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I mean...kinda? I think it means a lot more to this forum than reality. With the tiebreaker out the window this isn't really any different from beating the Giants and the Cubs dropping a game on any other day. Time is on the Brewers side though, so I would think that the odds shift pretty drastically each day the Cubs don't pick up a game. It's an important game; all of them from this point on are important, but the point stands that the odds are on our side even with a loss today, likely overwhelmingly so. We're just seeing recency bias collide with emotion.
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At the All Star Game, the Cubs were 1 game ahead 66 games left. Today, they are not even close to that circumstance so that just isn't true. I will be concerned if the lead shrinks to 2 or 3 within the next week. I am genuinely not worried at the moment, not with how these games have looked, with who we've chosen to throw, and who we are still missing. It's actually comical to me, the freakout session happening, still 6 up after going like 26-4. Did people think we weren't going to lose consecutive games again? It's simply just not panic time.
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So, for perspective. A Cubs victory today would put them on a trajectory to finish 93-69 (maybe 94-68 but the rounding is right between those two numbers). That's finishing the season at the same pace they've shown over 129 games, good for the 4th best record in baseball this morning. So it's not like they've been bad. A 15-19 finish would keep the Brewers in first place. The Cubs could certainly finish ahead of that pace, but it just illustrates the Brewers still have a healthy margin for error. They can still mess up and leg this out. The Cubs most likely have to play above pace, and if the Brewers even play under their pace considerably, but just don't melt, they probably still hang on.
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That sounds...off. The difference between 7GB and 5GB with 34 games left, is 40%? The Brewers will remain a heavy favorite if they lose 10-0 today. There is a lot of losing left in the Cubs yet. 5GB with 34 games is completely within the realm of falling into 2nd place, but I would guess the odds are more like 80%. Most of us would feel the same about any other 2 teams, we're just emotional because it's us. Even with the Brewers finishing those 34 games something like 15-19, time is working against the Cubs.
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Brewers lost a couple hard-fought games to the Cubs, with some patchwork lineups and pitching moves you'd never see in October. It is what it is. But the Cubs are like a game off having the 3rd best record in baseball. It's not like we're losing to a crap team. A loss is a loss, but I am with Yelich. This is pretty much how you want to lose and who you want to lose to, if you're going to lose. I haven't seen anything that's overly concerning.
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What a bizarre thing to do lol
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They probably view it like all the other games where they go and try to win, but it doesn't always happen. The theatrics in here tonight are seriously insane. Losing to your rival is never fun, but my God. We hold the high ground and being where we are is an absolute dream right now.
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No ass kicking is happening. At one point late they were up 3-1 with 1 hit. If we plan on starting Chad Patrick in the playoffs and the string of relievers we ran out yesterday, we are in trouble. At some point, we were going to hit a skid before October. Let's hope it's a week and not 3 weeks.
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Going .500 with the remainder is pretty likely to win the division. At 18-17, the Cubs would need to go 24-11. Doable, yes, but tough. Each win above that makes it that much harder. 21-14 forces 27-8, you start getting into fantasy territory. The Brewers really have to tank this. And if they do, they deserve whatever fate.
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Losing to mediocre teams has been what has plagued the Cubs for a lot of the second half. Doesn't mean it will continue to happen, but that has very much been the rub. The streak gave the Brewers a huge margin for error. It's actually insane we could drop 4/5 and be 5 games ahead, in a race we were behind in last month. I'm confident we'll hang on. I really want us to at least keep the #2 overall, but I believe we have a large enough sample to show we're a strong, consistent team and getting some horses back soon should help.
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5-game lead with all of September to play really isn't anything. Getting out of there tomorrow with a win would really calm things down. Perspective is a funny thing though. 5-game lead after losing to the Cubs 4/5? Panic? 1 game back after taking 4/5? Everyone would be amped up.
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That's pretty harsh. We lost the game, but I didn't see much wilting.
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It's not, but you wouldn't believe the Brewers would catch them, down 6 games at this point.
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That really hurts. Quality ABs and Contreras with a good lick.
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That K feels big. I think we're gonna rally and take this one. Could not let them get the run back there.
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I think we'd still be batting. Until the end of time. I don't think we'd ever get out and it would be 900-3 by morning.
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I have more faith in the bunting than the ball being drilled 120 mph right into glove webbing.
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This series hasn't even been decided yet.
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Good grief you guys. Come on with the LOB.
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A few losses? One where we ran a B squad, one where Grant Anderson closed? And one yesterday where the pen sequence wasn't anywhere close to what it would be in a playoff game? We are seeing a break from an unsustainable historic pace combined with being able to use our bullpen in a luxurious manner because we have a large divisional lead. The Cubs have been throwing the kitchen sink at these games, we really haven't. We need to get some runs on the board and we shouldn't think we can throw this away because it isn't over. But it's really not that dire at this point.
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The LOB has gotten pretty bad the last few days.
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I think he was headed there this season regardless. Anything short of legendary numbers and I believe that was always going to be the plan. Woodruff, Peralta, Preister/Quintana are your SP in October.
