CheezWizHed
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Everything posted by CheezWizHed
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[sarcasm]Unfortunately, they were fans of Jason Rogers. They even had his misspelled Packer jersey. Now that he is gone, they won't show up.[/sarcasm] -
Strikeouts & Winning... Does it matter?
CheezWizHed replied to pacopete4's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I think, for some people, and I'm not saying anyone in particular, they just say "if you strike out less, that means those balls in play will be x% hits and homeruns and doubles" or so on. I think there's a fallacy to that thinking. Back a couple pages, in that link talking about "Pitcher Ks=good. Batter Ks=doesn't matter", one good point he made was that some players strikeout because they swing hard. But they also get more 2Bs, 3B, and HRs because they swing hard also. So quite the opposite of that thinking. There are some players that strike out a lot AND don't hit many XBHs. Those are the people to get rid of. But of you can strikeout but balance that with more XBHs, then more power to you (pun intended). -
I don't see how it really matters. If sentimental feelings makes us do something silly, then yes, it does matter (e.g. trading way too much to get him). I wouldn't mind getting Jake back because he is a good pitcher. But there are other good pitchers out there also.
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Where do you see this team in 2018? Still unloading veteran talent for what 2023? The Cubs could lose both Arietta and Lackey opening a slight window of opportunity that's likely to close quickly. Cole might become too expensive for Bucs. Arcia should be established by then. Phillips figures to be here, and Davis and Braun could still be around banging. No, as someone else said, I expect 2018 to be an upswing year, but not a contending year. My post was trying to point out two things: 1) I don't see Stearns trading for MLB established talent (though Odorizzi is still pretty young). Its just not fitting the MO of his offseason. 2) I think most of the talk about Jake is due to him being a former Brewer draft pick and not an actual target to acquire. If we were talking about acquiring Danny Salazar, I doubt as many people would be pushing for it to happen. Because what it would take to happen would start breaking up the AA and AAA core we worked to establish.
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I missed the Suns game, but the Bucks played pretty well on the road against GS. Unfortunately, they went ice-cold at the end and made some dumb turn-overs. Plumlee was shockingly good in that game. I've never seen him so active offensively or defensively. And I have to admit that I like the black jerseys... I'm not crazy about the new buck head logo, but the rest of it looks good.
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Would we really be talking about this if Jake wasn't a Brewer draft pick? What if Danny Salazar was being traded? Would the Brewers in this stage of the reconstruction go after him? I'm doubting it.
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2015-2016 Minor League Offseason Transaction Thread
CheezWizHed replied to Jim Goulart's topic in Brewers Minor League Talk
When does he finally get a call up to bigs? To the radio booth I mean. .. -
As should any list that has Tyrone Taylor ten spots ahead of Hader and Yadiel Rivera ten spots and Kyle Wren five spots ahead of Houser. True. So very true
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Plus, what gain would that be to the Brewers? He isn't a long term solution and you only risk damaging his trade value. Of our MLB and AAA OFers, Braun in the only one that makes sense to move to 1B.
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I would imagine that its proven Davis can't play first. They tried it in ST and walked away from it. I'm pretty sure Braun could play first. Its quite possible CC is being coy about Braun in case they are trying to trade Davis. Personally, I'm 50/50 on trading Davis. If he can stay away from the injury bug, he could break out a big more (260/330/540). Or he might have peaked at 27 already.
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He is only Maverick to me. Way to good of a name (not even nickname) to ignore it.
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I was actually wondering about both of them. Its pretty obvious that Stearns doesn't want Santana in CF. But they haven't made the obvious move of putting Braun at 1B either (or at least announced it). Everything Stearns has done (publically) makes me think that Santana will be back at AAA this year. Personally, Braun to 1B just makes too much sense right now. Forget about Alvarez... We have the pieces to do it now. Its no surprise to me that Maverick will start at AAA next year. I'm all for that. But this is a little "more" than the stopgap CF I was expecting. Broxton is less of a prospect than Maverick hands-down. But there is plenty of overlap between the two. Plus, its not like Broxton is any more of a sure thing this year in CF than Maverick. He has a bit more experience at AAA and probably better defense. But in terms of development, they are pretty close. And given that Stearns had the inside scoop on both, it does make you wonder. If he trades either one of them at some point in the near future (next year). That has to be a huge red flag on either one. As for the trade, I too am shocked at how much Rogers brought back. I wanted Rogers to get a shot at 1B this year to see what he could really produce, but I'll take this trade no problem. Now to move Braun to 1B... Edit: I'd blame autocorrect for my spelling problems, but I'm on a computer and keyboard...
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But we don't have to act like he's a great owner for doing so. Wendy left the bar pretty low.
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It always annoys me when the losing team complains about the winning team's celebration. Unless the winning team is mocking or condescending, deal with it. We untucked our jerseys...boo hooo. We screamed and jumped around like a playoff game... tough cookies.
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Injuries can happen at any time so you don't say you throw like this you can't start cause you may get hurt. I don't think "can't" is the right word for what scouts are talking about when you have a short or "high effort" type pitcher. I think they are simply pointing out a red flag than can reduce the odds. There are always people that beat the odds, but most don't (which is why they are odds).
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Cool. 22M people (despite the misplaced commas) would be a record! I'll say 2,238,830 if Arcia and Maverick stay at AAA prior to Sept call-ups. More like 2,414,930 if they are up midseason. When I looked up the Miller Park vs. County Stadium numbers, there certainly seems like a major attendance shift (upwards) for Miller Park. The best years in County Stadium (1987, 1983) align with poor years at Miller Park. They could win only 45 games this year and probably still draw over 2M fans.
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Well, my daughter isn't a huge baseball fan yet (though she can recognize Bob Uecker's voice), but I'll let you know if she needs that at some point.
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Not a big deal but Mike Fiers still has four year remaining Technically Mark was right. Four years of control is because of arbitration. His current contract wasn't that long. Same thing about the current roster's commitments. Many guys can be controlled longer, but none have a long term contracts.
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Pena and Cravy to the pen, maybe. But no way Houser should be put there now. Houser has the same ceiling and similar profile as Jimmy Nelson. He certainly needs a chance to fail first. Pena is out of options, so to the pen. And if he succeeds, then give him a chance to get back in the starting rotation. Cravy is a decent 6th starter/long man.
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Strikeouts & Winning... Does it matter?
CheezWizHed replied to pacopete4's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Of course, we would need 15 Russells just to keep 8 of them healthy enough to be in the lineup at one time. -
Strikeouts & Winning... Does it matter?
CheezWizHed replied to pacopete4's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
I was back and forth on ERA vs RA also, but that is the main problem with the numbers being presented. On one side, the batter's numbers are being filtered. No player with under 300 PA's is included in the data. So, you have automatically eliminated the worst players from the statistics. They do that with the premise of trying to look at "good" players, which is fine as long as you know the limitations of those statistics (remember, I said math was logical, application of statistics is not always logical). But then you do the same thing for pitchers. We only look at ERA and not RA. Certainly that makes sense if you want to compare a singular pitcher and separate the effects of his defense. But if you want to look at the effect of Ks on offense, those numbers don't give us a complete pitcher. So taking numbers that are "slightly off" on both sides and comparing them gives a conclusion that is slightly off. Maybe to drive home my point... The author lists a table with "Run Values for Outs" in the batter section. A strikeout is worth -0.3 runs. That isn't calculated as -0.3 runs "for the batter". Its simply -0.3 runs scored. Its effective for both the pitcher and batter, right? -
Interesting clarity on why scouts have his ceiling at mid-rotation. Hader's raw ability is among the best of any left-handed minor league pitcher, with two plus pitches and a fearless attitude on the mound. There are questions about his ability to be a starter in the big leagues because of his arm slot, the effort in his delivery, and his slender frame, but it's not because of his repertoire. The effort in his delivery is noticeable, but it doesn't affect his velocity in extended outings and while his command is only average, his stuff is potent enough to be effective at that level. Plus-plus fastball velocity raises his ceiling regardless of role, and his 1-7 curveball with sharp break is dominant against lefties and effective against righties. The change-up is clearly a third pitch, but it's a usable pitch that should end up being a major league average offering. That combination of pitches makes for a solid starting pitcher. He has most of the physical indicators of a bullpen arm, but he makes them work as a starter and he should be developed as such until he proves he is otherwise incapable of handling the responsibility. If a shift to the bullpen becomes necessary, he'll be a potent high-leverage arm, but until then, he still profiles as a mid-rotation starter who should miss bats.
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Don't you usually have to read about WAR? Not if someone reads it to you. Braille. Text to voice apps. Plenty of opportunities for blind people these days.
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Strikeouts & Winning... Does it matter?
CheezWizHed replied to pacopete4's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Two problems that I have with this article: 1) The author spends no time defending the "Ks are good for pitching" argument and spends the lion share of data on the batter. I actually don't doubt that Ks don't correlate to poor offense. Also looking at all numbers quoted in this thread and its focused on the batter and nothing on the pitcher. -> Please understand: My premise is that Ks have the same effect on the batter to score runs as it does the pitcher to prevent runs. 2) The one and only number he uses to defend the pitcher (Pitcher's K% has a much stronger correlation to ERA at -.52) is talking about EARNED runs. That is a problem. A win is not determined by an EARNED run, but ALL runs. Certainly it makes sense that the more Ks a pitcher has, the less he relies on his defense. But that isn't the point. The question is: Strikeouts and Winning. Winning is determined by ALL runs. I think that math is "logical" by definition. It's common sense that isn't adding up. The discrepancy is definitely befuddling, but it is what it is. sveumrules has offered up some numbers. Math is of course. Application of statistics can be very misleading (note I pointed out the discrepancy between ERA and RA above). Please be aware that I'm a software engineer and took enough math classes in college to get a minor in it. I'm not a "genius", but I'm no rube either. I've often wondered if this stuff was around when I was younger if I'd be working for the Brewers now. -
Just out of curiosity, I looked up the attendance and records of every year since Miller Park opened. County Stadium peaked at 2.3 million (1983) and only topped 2M that one time. Average is just under 1.5M for the 31 years we used it. 2001: 2,811,040 68-94 -> Miller Park Opened 2002: 1,969,693 56-106 2003: 1,700,354 68-94 2004: 2,062,382 67-94 2005: 2,211,023 81-81 2006: 2,335,643 75-87 2007: 2,869,144 83-79 2008: 3,068,458 90-72 2009: 3,037,451 80-82 2010: 2,776,531 77-85 2011: 3,071,373 96-66 2012: 2,831,385 83-79 2013: 2,531,105 74-88 2014: 2,797,384 82-80 2015: 2,542,558 68-94 I have no doubt that we will drop in attendance but I would be surprised if we drop too drastically from the average (2.5M).
