804Sox

true. I think Scutaro will likely start the year at SS with Lowrie as the Utility player, but wouldn't be surprised to see the roles reversed by midseason. I think the Cameron is more valuable to the Sox than you give him credit for too. Crawford, Drew, and Ortiz all have pretty poor splits against LHP and I could see Cameron getting lots of ABs there (along with D-Mac). Plus, Drew and Ells have potential durability issues (see: 2010) I think Scutaro and Cameron would be a great fit for the Brewers, but unfortunately they fit nicely with the Sox too, who have the unfair ability to invest 13 mil in two bench/platoon players . . . It's possible both could be had cheaply by midseason, though, if Kalish/Reddick comes up to Boston permanently and Navarro is looking good in AAA

even if you don't think Correia's that good, you can't hate him at 2/8. Surprised he didn't get more in a pretty thin SP market.

The highest rated guy, Kelly had a 5.31 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP at AA. Rizzo's shown some power potential, but hasn't hit for much of an average, and he makes a ton of errors at 1b. Fuentes is at least 3 years away. It's will be at least 2013 before this deal pays any dividends for Padres and that's assuming a lot. Not a good deal for baseball in general in my opinion. Glad to have Gonzalez out of the NL, but I'd rather have Fielder for another year and take the two draft picks than take this deal for him. Important to keep in mind that both Kelly and Rizzo were in AA at age 20. Kelly was dominant in A and A+ the year before with great feel for two secondary pitches and actually added a couple mph on his fastball heading into 2010 (some speculate this is the source of his recently less impressive command). Either way, he's probably a top 25 prospect in all of baseball, and Rizzo would seem like a lock for the top 100 (also, a good defender according to scouting reports, fwiw) Seems like a pretty good haul, especially compared to the 2 picks SD would have gotten otherwise (in an unsure FA compensation environment); and from the Sox perspective, it's a hefty price to pay for 1 yr of Gonzales and an exclusive negotiating window. In the end, I think both teams win with this. Gonzo should rake in Fenway, and I think Kelly is gonna put up great numbers in Petco as soon as the 2012 season, if not late this season.

Is there a team that doesn't like Lawrie? Don't think I could name one. Marcum's solid, but Lawrie would be a vast overpay in my opinion.

I think if Rodriguez gets picked in rule five he ends up in the 'pen too, with similar setup potential. Personally, I prefer Aneury because I think he's a better pitcher and has a much higher likelihood of becoming a productive player, but that could be my bias from following Rays' prospects much closer than the Os.

Balfour? His three pitches are fastball, fastball, and fastball. I don't see how he could be a starter when all he's used to doing is going in for an inning (sometimes two) and throwing as hard as he can.Also, like Benoit, he's been wildly inconsistent over his career and is likely to command far more money than he's worth. He's exactly the type of player I'd stay away from, especially with reliable (though lower ceiling) options like Crain and Guerrier likely to come much cheaper.

My list would be: 1. Cliff Lee ... ... ... 2. Duchscherer 3. Garland 4. Vazquez 5. Bedard 6. Penny

Duchscherer would be a good target for the Brewers if he can demonstrate good health to team doctors. He's another guy that's swung back and forth between the rotation and the pen.

And Mark Reynolds remains silent . . .

Something to consider: Beltre has emphasized all along that he wants to play on the West Coast to be near his family and stated entering this past season that he was going to Boston to build value for free agency. I would like to say that he's likely to stay in Boston if he doesn't go to a West Coast team, but it may be that neither the Red Sox nor the Brewers have a shot at him. The dude has made a lot of money in his career, and you can be sure that after the season Beltre just had, Boras will be able to squeeze plenty of money out of the Angels or Oakland or whoever he wants to play for, even if he could have gotten more from BOS or MIL on the open market.

Kazmir was one of my favorite players back when he was dominant and the Rays were harmless. As someone who has followed him, he is NOT the same pitcher. at all. the injuries have taken their toll.

SoxProspects.com is definitely a legit site, as evidenced by the weekly collaborations they do with ESPN Boston on the Red Sox minor league system and players. The main difference is that Sickels' rankings were done in the offseason, while the SoxProspects rankings are updated weekly. Doubront has had a lot of helium this year - due to adding a little bit of velocity and outperforming people's expectations in the high minors. That said, SP.com had him ranked #11 in the offseason and has been on prospect-followers' radar for the past few years, so he hasn't come out of nowhere. While definitely a solid prospect, Doubront is another guy with mid-rotation ceiling - which in my mind is all Hart is worth. Personally, I wouldn't give up any of Wheeler, Belt, Doubront, etc. for Hart because I don't think he's better than an .800-.820 OPS hitter, but we all have different opinions.

Just to play Devil's advocate . . . the Red Sox also rarely get the opportunity to pick in the top 2/3 of the first round, where you get elite advanced talent with upside (except this year!). Where the sox pick, you usually have to select a raw toolsy player with high-end upside, or a more advanced high-floor player with a slightly lower ceiling. In my mind, the Sox have done a great job stocking the lower minors with high-upside lottery tickets and have a deep system that should start to bear fruit at the upper levels in the next couple years. On your other points, I agree completely. Bowden's FB tendencies and average K-rate make him a less-than-ideal fit for the Brewers, and Lars is definitely not ready to start in the majors . . . yet. However, he might be the most interesting/thoughtful person in baseball. If any of you are bored, look for some interview transcripts. They're great.

Anderson would be good, but I don't care much for Bowden. Most of the scouting reports I've read portray him as more of a middle reliever than a potential #3. It's possible that given a chance to pitch regularly outside of the AL East he could pull an Ian Kennedy, but from what I understand he has the least upside of any (starting) pitcher mentioned so far.Personally, I would not go for that offer form the Sox POV, but I value Hart much less than many here (injury concerns aside). Just a couple notes on Bowden: He reworked his mechanics during the offseason and struggled considerably out of the gate after having performed really well at AAA over the previous season +. He has rebounded nicely since the middle of May. Recently, he was converted to the 'pen, presumably to help Boston's desperate situation there and because this is his last option year (so he'll need to stick on the Sox somewhere going into next season). It seems his velocity has played up a bit in short stints, and the results have been really impressive. For what it's worth, he pitched a scoreless inning with 2 Ks in his lone appearance in Boston so far this year (small sample, obviously). Having followed him for years, I think his potential is definitely higher than middle relief. I'm optimistic that he could become a reliable bridge/setup reliever for the Sox in the near future (7th/8th inning), but also think he has the stuff and stamina to fit into the back end of most rotations, perhaps slotting higher in the NL (#3?). It's just hard to write off a player that has pitched extremely well at every level (while being young for his competition) except for 23 innings at the MLB level spread over a half-dozen trips and 3 years. That said, you are correct that his upside is less than pitchers like Delgado and even Minor. Correction: Bowden has made two other appearances since his first outing totaling 1.1 scoreless innings (though less stellar than this first).

Right now Moore looks like a guy who will repeat A+ next year as a 5th year pro. His ERA is almost 5 in a major pitchers league as a 4th year pro. Davis put up an ERA under 2 in the same league at the same age. Davis was higher regarded when the season opened, and continues to be better. This un-named source that claims Melvin like Moore better is about as reliable as the source that claimed Hart and Coffey were being dealt for Bumgarner. Davis is ranked higher due to proximity and floor, not ceiling. For me, it's pretty much a toss-up on who I'd rather have. You know you're getting a solid mid-rotation pitcher with Davis, that COULD become a good #2/borderline #1 ala Gallardo (not to compare the two pitchers in any other way) if he can further refine a third pitch. At the same time, Moore's ridiculous K numbers are tantalizing, and he COULD become a legit ace/perennial Cy Young contender - a ceiling I doubt Davis can match. However, he also has a much greater chance of becoming nothing, and adding his name to the list of pitchers with great stuff that never put it together. As the Brewer's, I'd probably take Davis, because you don't want to end up with nothing (PR considerations aside); there are a stable of young pitcher like Odorizzi, Scarpetta, Peralta et al coming up behind him in the system; and because he's ready now, when the Brewers are in a position to retool rather than tear down and rebuild (with Braun, Gallardo, et al still under contract)

yikes. don't count on that. why would the white sox give up more of their best prospects if the brewers throw in average players like bush and mcgehee?

You have no interest in an infielder who was an elite college player and top-10 overall pick, who raked in the few months he played in the minors before being called to the majors just a year after being drafted, who has the pedigree of a top 20 prospect, and who performed well as a 22yro just a year removed from college in his rookie season? Just because he's had a bad first 300 at-bats in this season, his second season, as a 23yro? Clearly you're the type that was clamoring for Hart to be dumped in a trade or non-tendered this past off-season, and probably one of those that thinks Hart is going to return top prospects at the deadline this year because he's hitting now. Baseball is a sport where shortsightedness, particularly with respect to performance, can be devastating to talent evaluation and even a few hundred at-bats or 100 innings pitched is a small enough sample to be inconclusive. Gordon Beckham WILL be a good baseball player. He has the pedigree, collegiate and minor-league track record, physical tools, and baseball skills to succeed. He has also demostrated the ability to put those skills together and perform well at the major league level for extended stretches. If you're selling on Beckham's future (and near future) because of a poor first half this year, I'm buying.

As has been said above, teams rarely (if ever) trade potential top-of-the rotation pitchers when they're MLB ready. Therefore, if you want this type of pitcher, which we all do, you have to droject on them and acquire them while they're young. No guarantees, but hopefully enough pan out. And really, it only takes one or two top flight pitchers to make it worthwhile.

Limited supply+More demand=higher value, which is why Hart will bring back better than his perceived overall value if he's traded now and why Prince would bring back lesser value. This is a concept that's true in virtually every business, including baseball. Some of the top prospect trades are a bit pie-in-the-sky, but they are no more ridiculous than the idea that the Brewers should settle for a project like Sanchez or unwanted prospects.Yeah. I get the whole supply and demand thing. I should have been more clear, but I was referring to hart's value being oversold and Fielder's perhaps being undersold in the context of the pulse of this message board. I think some are overreacting to the high "Demand" (expressed in trade rumors, tweets, etc.) for Hart relative to Fielder and incorrectly assuming that this will make his trade value, or "Price" greater than fielder's. Obviously this is not the case because there are different markets for 1B and RF and the players are largely not interchangeable. Additionally, the demand for Hart could be greater due to the knowledge that his price would be significantly lower.

Just because more teams have expressed interest in acquiring Hart doesn't mean he is more valuable or has higher trade value. More teams are interested in Hart because he makes less money, will cost less in prospects, and plays a position that the interested teams need (as opposed to 1B, where most teams have serviceable players) I think Hart's value/trade value is being tremendously oversold. He is still a flawed player, and the teams asking about him know this just as well as we do. His hot first half has not led well managed teams like the Rays to believe he's a superstar, and even poorly run teams like the Giants have sufficiently realistic perceptions of his value to not give up top-flight MLB-ready pitching for him. Adding fungible pieces like Coffey (a solid reliever) will not change that fact. Hart will not be traded for Bumgarner. Hart will not be traded for Hellickson. Hart will not be traded for Teheran and probably not even Minor. On the other hand, Prince's value has not diminished as much as some think. Unfortunately, the market for his services is relatively small, but the Brewers need not rush to move him. Fielder is an elite power hitter, and very good overall player that I would compare more to Ryan Howard than Texeira or others. When Prince is traded, the return will be substantial (but this doesn't mean Hellickson + Colome + Moore or whatever . . . pitching prospects have substantial value too).

Chris Davis is hitting 354 with power in AAA. He'll be the 1B for Texas. Not the first time Davis has torn up AAA . . . I would think a team with World Series ambitions would want more of a sure bet to produce offensively at 1B. It's not like CF, where Borbon was allowed to struggle at the plate initially this season because his defense was so valuable.

Texas no longer has a starting 1B-man . . . but may not be able to take on Fielder's contract. Something to keep an eye on, though, if they're going for it this year as it seems.

Bumgarner should NEVER be mentioned again in this thread. period.

I only think the Brewers get Minor if they take back Kawakami's salary too. Still think the Braves would be overpaying, though.

should be able to get a better pitcher than davis for lawrie