804Sox

Coming into the season, Lars was BA's 17th ranked prospect and Gamel was #34. They are definitely comparable players. Lars had a horrible year last year. He was injured at the beginning of the year and, according to interviews I've read with Hazen and McLeod, just never got out of the hole/put too much pressure on himself to perform. He's still an OBP machine (had an isoD close to .100 in '09), playing young for his level in AA, which he tore up at the end of '08 when healthy. If he rebounds this year, I think he's reestablished his value. Gamel has proven more at higher levels, except MLB. I have no doubt that he'll hit in the Majors, but I think his value is somewhat limited by the fact that he will probably be an average defender at best. Gamel's advancement and Lars poor '09 probably shift the scales in favor of Gamel. I concede that the Sox would proabbly have to throw in another, lower-level player (a C prospect, outside the top 15, or even 20), but maintain that the basic parameters of this deal are solid. I'd love to hear why not, as long as the reasoning moves beyond "[you think] every team is the Red Sox and Yankees farm system." I think Ellsbury, Pedroia, Lester, Youkilis, Papelbon, Delcarmen, Bard, et al are pretty good evidence that the Sox are their own farm system.

I should premise this by saying that i think Gonzales is Better than Fielder. He's a great hitter, on a cheap contract, whose career stats have been deflated by playing a lot of games in Petco. Unlike Fielder, who is another great hitter, he's also an ELITE defender at 1B, not just adequate. Thus, if the Sox aren't willing to trade Ellsbury and Buchholz for Gonzales, you're probably not going to get both for Fielder. With Reddick, Kalish, Lin et al on the horizon and Cameron signed to a 2 yr deal, i wouldn't be opposed to trading Ellsbury, but I value pitchers like Buchholz very highly. I wold trade Ells and Casey Kelly for Gonzales, but not Fielder. For Prince I might give up something like Ells, Lars Anderson, Michael Bowden, and another prospect (not named Westmoreland, Kelly, or Reddick). That night bot be quite enough though. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts. I'd definitely throw in Almanzar. Re: nate82 - I think your optimism vis-a-vis Almanzar is a bit much. He's got great tools and apparently looked very smooth on D this past season, but he is the definition of RAW offensively. His swing needs a lot of work, he rolls over too many pitches, etc. Kelly is an incredibly polished pitcher who, in my opinion, has a very high floor. I don't think there's much question that he'll be a MLB pitcher. Unfortunately, his velo may preclude him from being an true #1, but he's still young enough to bulk up and add a couple mph. Lester added 4 mph b/w HS and his MLB debut and is one of the hardest throwing lefty starters in the game. If Kelly can add 2, I think he'll be in good shape with such good command. With Almanzar, you're essentially getting a lottery ticket. He COULD be great, but really hasn't shown the type of development you'd expect in his time in the system thus far. Still young and still toolsy, but you're definitely taking a lot of risk. I'll tale Kelly any day. In fact, I probably wouldn't put Almanzar in the top 20 Red Sox prospects, where I don't think you can rate Kelly any lower than 4 or 5 (Westmoreland, Reddick, Kalish, Anderson?), and could arguably put him at #1.

max ramirez is like a better version of Salome - a power hitting catcher with a questionable glove. He was a top prospect until he hurt his wrist this past season, but he's leading the VWL in HR, so it seems like he's back. I would love to get Gamel to fill the hole at 3B. I think he's unbelievably underrated here. The fact that people mention him in the same breath as McGahee blows my mind. Still don't think I'd give up Buchholz though. I'm of the mindset that good starting pitching is the key to a successfull baseball team, and having cost-controlled starters like Buchholz is what allows you to spend more on a FA like Lackey. It's nice to be able to fill the back end of the rotation with guys like him than Suppan and Silva making 10+ mil/yr to be below average. I'd be thrilled to acquire Gamel, though. Don't often see prospect for prospect trades, but Gamel for Lars Anderson might work. Lars takes Fielder's spot at 1B when he is traded/leaves. I know his stock has dropped a bit but he was very young for his level and still showed great discipline. I think he'll bounce back and be a good player, but with Rizzo's development, he may not be as essential to the Sox as a 3B. The best 3B in the system (and most advanced) is will middlebrooks in A-ball. Hardly a sure thing.

might have tendered him a contract because enough teams expressed interest. I still think hes highly available in trade

2006 was done entirely out of the bullpen, only 8 starts in 2007 and 19 in 2008. Ask Vargas about starting and relieving. Once again, I have no problem pursuing him, it just shouldn't take anything more than a mediocre prospect to get him knowing that he'll be non-tendered and if it does take more than that, then he's not worth trading for imo. After looking into his performance a bit more this afternoon, his career splits suggest that he's pitched BETTER as a starter - a split remaining consistent in most years - which surprised me. You can now count me as a believer. I think he's a legit #4/#5 starter in the NL. Might be worth giving up a guy like Green, but I stand by my earlier assertion that Green and Villanueva is too much considering he's likely to be non-tendered.

Rarely, it seems, do I value Brewers prospects more than you guys do, but Taylor Green is worth more than Correia. There's a reason he's a non-tender candidate at that cost. He's not the type of player you give up a top 10-15 prospect and a serviceable reliever for. I might offer something like Rob Wooten and Katin

max ramirez is a decent return, but the Sox are eating a ton of money

Boston would probably do it if they got Soriano, but what would the Braves incentive be? They'd give up a good overpaid starter and a good reliever on a 1-year deal for a bad overpaid starter and a fringe starting OF. Braves would probably need to get Coffey in that scenario, but more likely a Brewers prospect. I don't think Lowe's value is that low (no pun intended), he's just surpluss and expensive and the Braves would prefer to spend the money invested in him elsewhere. Swapping him for Suppan doesn't necessarily help them. They still have more starters than they think they need, including one that's making a lot of money that they could spend on a bat. The situation with Soriano is similar. He has pretty solid value, but after signing Saito and Wagner the Braves feel the back end of their bullpen is complete and would prefer to spend that 7-8 mil elsewhere.

The Sox seem to be trying really hard to unload Lowell so they can sign Beltre. I don't think he has much value at all the way his defense has regressed, but he's only a 1-year commitment at this point. Lowell for Hart might be roughly equivalent in this scenario, but again, I'm not sure why the Brewers would want him

bad trade for both sides. Suppan would have no value to the Sox and the Brewers really don't need 3 3B when they might struggle to find adequate pt for 2. Additionally, it doesn't serve as salary relief for either team, which would be the point of tradig Suppan and Lowell in the first place.

3/25 would be a great deal for wolf.

Maybe kick the tires on Tulo while you're at it . . . Seriously, Jimenez is not going anywhere.

This was going to be my response. He DOES need to work deeper in games this season, though, to help protect the bullpen.

At least Suppan is a consistent, durable, innings-eater.

DeJesus is one of the best defensive LF's in baseball. If Braun could play RF, I think trading Hart and adding DeJesus would improve the lineup/defense overall. But the Brewers already have a LF, and DeJesus doesn't have the arm to play RF well. Also, I think some people on this forum are really overestimating Braun'sability to potentially play RF. He's one of the best young hitters and probably one of the 5 or 10 most valuable players in the game, but he is a REALLY suspect defender.

I prefer Hart to DeJesus - Hart's greater defensive value and higher upside give him the slight edge, though DeJesus has value to the Royals in that he's pretty much the only hitter in that lineup that can consistently get on base.

Meche would be a great acquisition. He's had success in the AL and prior to last year was a dependable 200 IP workhorse. I think he's probably better than any FA pitcher aside from Lackey, and even though he's making 12 mil/yr, you wouldn't have to commit to 3 or more years like you might with Wolf or Harden, and certainly would with Lackey. I would take Meche at 12 mil/yr over Wolf at 10mil or a guy like Padilla at 7 or 8mil.

You're probably right, but it just feels strange to say something like this. I like Harden too. He's got the best stuff, and I'm more concerned about the types of injuries suffered by Bedard, Sheets, and Duch. Not surprisingly, this is why Harden's received the most interest and will probably command the largest contract. Oh, and he'll still probably get hurt . . .

Unfortunately, the Red Sox just signed the best backup IF on the market . . . to be their starting SS . . . ugh. how is he a type A FA?

Pagan's a nice piece, but I agree that it would be tough to give up players in the 10-20 range to get him simply because there's not much separation between them. Guys at the back end of that group, such as Odorizzi and Rivas, could arguably be slotted in the 11-15 range over guys like Heckathorn and Rogers. A player like Iribarren, Farris, or Frederickson could be a fair return, depending on who the Mets' scouts and FO people like. I don't expect Pagan to repeat the nearly .840 OPS he put up last season, but he's improved his hitting with every season in the big leagues and is now in his physical prime, so it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect a .750 OPS with great speed, defense, and versatility in the field. As has been mentioned, he hits righties a bit better (pretty even split last year, though), so he makes a decent platoon partner with some of the Brewers other OF and is certainly capable of starting for a stretch due to injury at any OF position or as a late-game defensive replacement for Braun. I think he's a perfect fit at the right cost. Any word on what the Mets would be asking for? Edit: and I agree that it would be a poor decision to non-tender Hart

Jermaine Dye also not offered arbitration, fwiw. I still think he's got a decent bat.

Well put. Much more effectively stated than my previous post. The lists of pitcher weren't just randomly selected, they were young pitchers who have had success in the lower minors but aren't in the top tier of prospects in their respective organizations (therefore, excluding players such as Stolmy Pimentel, Casey Kelly, Dellin Betances, Arnett, Erbe, Arrieta, etc.). Based on my very rudimentary analysis, I suspected that the Brewers collection of such pitchers, including Rivas, would rank behind that of the Rays and Red Sox, and just ahead of the Orioles and Blue Jays - middle of the pack/slightly above average relative to the very small sample of organizations. Either way, we agree too much to keep arguing over meaningless details.

So you're making an argument that neither of us agree with? Interesting . . . Sounds like what each of us would call a bad argument. Anyways, you're right that the fact that the Brewers have lots of projectable young pitchers doesn't mean that other teams do, but the fact is that most other teams have a similar stable of young pitchers on par with Odorizzi, Rivas, et al. I'll just take the AL East teams because I'm most familiar with them. The Orioles have: Zach Britton, Nathan Moreau, Kenny Moreland, Jake Cowan, Vito Frabizio, Kevin Landry Toronto has: Tim Collins, Charles Huggins, Henderson Alvares, Joel Carreno, Nestor Molina, Egan Smith The Rays have: Aneury Rodriguez, Alex Cobb, Matt Moore, Alexander Colome, Jason McEachern, Kyle Lobstein The Yankees have: Manuel Banuelos, Jairo Heredia, D.J. Mitchell, Jose Ramirez, Arodys Vizcaino The Red Sox have: Felix Doubront, Kyle Weiland, Stephen Fife, Alex Wilson, Roman Mendez, Fabian Williamson I think that the Rays and Red Sox are probably the only organizations out of the 5 to have a better stable of young pitchers (aside from the top prospects) than the Brewers, but every system has a solid collection of projectable arms.

There are a lot of solid FA outfielders, some of whom have already been mentioned. I like: Rick Ankiel Xavier Nady Coco Crisp Rocco Baldelli Marlon Byrd none of these guys would command a huge contract. Also lots of good relievers (excluding those likely to get big contracts as closers - Gonzales, Valverde, Soriano, Wagner - and type A's): JJ Putz Kelvim Escobar Fernando Rodney Brandon Lyon Joe Beimel Will Ohman

You're right. I probably am underselling Salome's ability to stick at catcher by saying that it is unlikely, but I maintain my position that there is a very significant chance that he will be moved off the position due to defensive deficiencies. Jeff Clement is evidence that even the best hitting catchers' value is severely reduced by a move to 1B. w.r.t. Rivas - I've never seen him pitch, but his MiLB performance and scouting reports suggest he's a solid prospect - like Odorizzi and Scarpetta and Rogers and Anundsen and Periard . . . etc. The fact that the Brewers have this many similarly tiered players suggests that other teams do too. This doesn't mean that Rivas isn't good or valuable, or won't end up being better than any of these guys, but it certainly reinforces the notion that he is not an elite prospect. I disagree that Rivas compares favorably to any other pitcher in the system. I think Arnett, Braddock and Peralta are on a level above the rest of the pitching prospects (I'm particularly high on Peralta), even though Heckathorn got a lot of love in the offseason rankings. As far as my main point, I think we're pretty much on the same page: Among McGehee, Gomez, Salome, and Rivas, there is no truly elite prospect. Acquiring a young, cast-controlled ace requires giving up at least one such player.