804Sox

I'm aware of this, but the team losing the type B player still gets a compensation pick, which pushes all later picks back a slot, so it does matter in terms of comparative advantage

I don't think Hart could land Jurrjens. Others have already mentioned it, but I immediately thought of Kris Medlen being a fair return. Medlen is MLB ready right now, at least in a bullpen role, and has the upside of a 2-3 starter in my opinion. The Braves might look to dump Anderson's contract too in this deal.

Despite statistical similarities in terms of production, I don't think Hanley is a good comp for Escobar - personally I prefer the Elvis Andrus comparison brought up in another thread but that's really not my point. W.r.t. Hanley, as someone who has followed the Sox minor league system for years, he was always regarded as a player whose production fell short of his scouting reports. Those that watched him play in the minors often reported that he seemed to be coasting and not putting forth much effort, a sentiment related to several off-field incicdents he had in the minors. Hanley, even when he wasn't hitting lots of homeruns in the minors, was always viewed as a legit 5-tool player who projected to hit 20+ homeruns. Even optimists like myself never saw him becoming the type of generational offensive force that he is on track to be, but he was always viewed as a player who would make an impact with his bat and athleticism, while Escobar's primary calling card seems to be his glove, and few project him to be a force offensively. This doesn't mean Escobar isn't valuable. If he is even an average hitter he'll be incredibly valuably due to his presumably elite glove, good speed, and controlled cost. However, he's no Hanley.

Two early to sell for several reasons (which others have touched on) 1) The Brewers are still in contention and the Cubs and Cards both have serious questionmarks. After a few more weeks of play the Brewers will have a much better idea where they stand relative to other teams in the division and other teams in the wildcard hunt. The Giants are far from perfect also. 2) Sellers generally get more return value as the deadline approaches. We've already seen the list of available pitchers shrink in the past few weeks with the injury of Peavy, perhaps Dice-K's struggles (making Penny less expendable), etc. The teams wanting to buy will not get any less desperate if they remain in tight races and bidding wars with close, hard deadlines are good for the seller. 3) It would be wise to at least milk another few weeks of near sell-outs with a nice homestand coming up with the team in contention.

I agree that Byrd is a better option than Pedro or Glavine right now and would probably be an un-spectacularly solid innings-eater at the back of the rotation (valuable in the absence of Bush/Parra). I really haven't given it much attention since the end of last year, but Byrd was caught up in the PED whirlwind (HGH I believe?), which could be a major reason that teams have been scared off to a certain extent. With the draft passed and his type-B status no longer relevant I'm surprised no team has gambled on him yet.

Yeah, but from what I've been reading, he's no Adam Heether . . .

Even though he's in the minors, I think that it's more useful to look at Buchholz as a major league pitcher in terms of value. He'd be immediately ready to step into the Brewer's rotation, and would probably be in the majors and starting with most other teams besides the Red Sox. I do, however, agree with you that the Brewers should not trade a core starter while in the middle of a pennant race unless the return is too good to pass up (Buchholz) Finally, (and I apologize for making the same point several times now) I just don't think Hardy is near enough to pry Buchholz away from the Red Sox, and I may be a bigger Hardy fan than many of you (who watch him every day, ironically). In his last year of eligibility, BA had Buchholz as a top 5 prospect. He's dominated AAA three different times and has demonstrated that he CAN be a dominant MLB pitcher. Again, so as to not be obnoxious I'm going to stop there, but refer back a few pages if you want an extended defense of Clay's value.

where would they play? No DH in the NL . . . http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif (Moving Braun back to 3rd also blocks Gamel's bat)

I think it's a little early to think about moving Jeffress to the 'pen. He's still only 21 and has already tasted AA. I think he should at least get another year to figure it out as a starter. From where his is now between A+ and AA he could make it to the bigs in months of he transitions smoothly.

Pedro (as painful as it would be to watch him try to hit . . .) and Byrd would both be better options You have to believe that if Glavine had anything left the Braves would have let him come up, make 1 start, and officially retire as a Brave. I understand that the 1 mil would have vested, but that could have been renegotiated, I'm sure.

I had forgotten that Sizemore had signed a contract buying out his arbitration years, so I rescind my call for him to be traded (just as I would never advocate Braun or Longoria or Pedroia being traded that early into their club-friendly contracts), but otherwise stand by my previous position, and most humbly . . . Cleveland has a lot of deals expiring by '10 (55 mil), including after club options: 2009 - DeRosa (5.5 mil) - Luis Vizcaino (3.5 mil) - Jamey Carol (2.5 mil) - Carl Pavano (1.5 mil) - Greg Aquino (1 mil) 2010 - Jake Westbrook (11 mil) - Kerry Wood if he doesn't finish 55 games in either fot he next 2 years, otherwise vesting option for '11 (10.5 mil) - Cliff Lee (8 mil club option will be picked up) - Victor Martinez (7 mil club option will be picked up) - Rafael Batancourt (5.4 mil club option will be picked up) The only players under contract beyond 2010 are Hafner, Sizemore, Peralta ('11 club option), and Carmona. If I am in the Indians front office, I recognize that my window has closed with the group of players currently under contract, and trade off as many as possible to return as much value as possible to my organization before the value of my assets depreciate, which they will. Specifically, I'd try to get as much as possible for Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, DeRosa, Carol, Wood, and Pavano. If another team were generous enough to take on the contracts of Westbrook, Hafner, or Carmona I'd be extatic. None of the above players are likely to be resigned, meaning that none would be able to contribute to a Cleveland Indians team with championship aspirations. Where is the arrogance in maximizing return on depreciating assets? Cleveland could tank before the draft, amass a boatload of prospects (like Texas with the Texeira trade, Oakland after unloading the big 3, Harden, Haren, etc., Baltimore trading Bedard, Florida numerous times), build around Sizemore, LaPorta, Shoppach, Garko, Choo, Francisco, Cabrera, and Santana, AND free up the payroll to make a run at young, cornerstone FAs (Mauer or Holliday, for example) at a time when other teams are reluctant to spend. It would be wiser, you think, to hold on to overpriced-FA-to-be like Lee and Martinez (who is a really good hitter, but can barely play catcher NOW) until they'll only return .40 on the dollar or only compensation picks in FA, all the while hurting the team's draft position and spending more money?

On the other hand, the return on Lee will be much greater if they trade him now. Look not farther than the difference between what ATL gave up for Tex and what they recieved from the Angels just a year later. The A's also maximized their return on Dan Haren by trading him while he was still signed to a reasonable contract for a while. With CC gone, Carmona struggling, and Hafner looking done, that leaves Sizemore, Lee, and a bunch of young kids. Why not blow it up completely now? Cleveland could get an unbelievable package of prospects for Lee and Sizemore, and with the stable of young players they've got in the minors and majors already, they could be formidable in a couple years. Don't know why more teams don't use the Marlin's model . . .

Anybody got a scouting report on the kid? He seems to have good stuff and control based on his K and BB rates, and obviously he's translating his talent into production on the mound. What pitches does he feature? How hard does he throw? Does he have the reputation of being more polished than a lot of HS pitchers or is he just blowing lower-level players away with great stuff?

I think TheCrew summed it up pretty well. Lowrie will be back in a few months at worst, and if they think he can be the starting SS of the near future, then Hardy becomes redundant. Were this the final year of Hardy's contract, acquiring him would make a lot more sense. Hardy could play SS for the remainder of the year, while Lowrie gradually works his way back. As TheCrew mentioned, he can play all over the infield (SS, 2B, and 3B) and would get plenty of at bats. However, with Hardy under the Sox control for another year, lowrie would be redundant, and if the Sox like him, I immagine they'd want him to be starting by next year, his age 26 season. Hardy's going to make a lot of money when he hits FA - probably a lot more than he's worth because he plays a premium defensive position, and I don't think the Sox will want to sign a late-20s SS to what will probably be a 5 year deal for 10+ mil/yr when they have a solid offensive and defensive shortstop in Lowrie who will just be entering arbitration during that contract. Personally, I see Hardy as a substantial upgrade over Lowrie both offensively and defensively. But, I think Lowrie will be a .770-.820 OPS SS in his prime years with an average glove while making very reasonable money, certainly a lot less than the Sox would have to pay Hardy to retain him after he hits FA. I'm not totally sold on Lowrie as the "SS of the future" given his only average glove and range (I like to see a little better D up the middle) but I'm content with him as the SS of the near future while some higher-cieling guys work their way through the system.

As an outsider with no real preference for either team, I think that there's no way the Giants would accept this deal. Hart's a decent player, and the 70-ish XBH are great, but his .330-ish OBP relegates him to the bottom of the order for most teams. While his stuff is declining, Cain is still a top-of-the-rotation starter. The Giants would be foolish to give up both he and Winn, whose OPS has been very similar to Hart's over the past few years, for Hart and Jeffress - an intriguing prospect, but a guy who likely will never be the type of pitcher that Cain is (I'm really uncomfortable with his walk rates) Again, just personal taste, but I'm not a big fan of Hart's swing. I know he's 6-6 but it's still waaay too long, suggesting to me that his .295 AVG and .353 OBP from '07 are a bit of an abberation.

definitely not a top notch starter, but Paul Byrd is still a free agent. He's only type B, so there would be no forfeiture of picks and he's come pretty cheap at a prorated salary. Just a thought . . .

yeah . . . my fault on the contract. I thought this was his last year of arbitration. I guess I assumed he was a super 2? Anyways, that definitely changes his value. Looking for comparable trades is somewhat difficult given the rarity of this sort of move: Tex to Atlanta for Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, Elvis Andrus, Saltalamaccia (although, I think everyone knew ATL was getting fleeced at the time) Matt Holliday for Huston Street, Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzales (offseason deal, so only 1 season vs. 1.5) I think the value of the later deal is more comparable given Holliday's perceived value as an elite player. In either case, Hardy's value is clearly higher with the extra year of control, and perhaps Buchholz would be an appropriate return, but I think this is a case where each player is more valuable to his own team, making a deal unlikely. The Sox have balked at trading Buchholz in the past for players like Saltalamaccia/Teagarden, Holliday, Teixera, CC, Johan, etc, and I don't think he'd be sacrificed for a player like Hardy who, despite his skillset, would not neccessarily be a part of the Sox long-term plans. Similarly, the Brewers need Hardy's bat on offense to compete this year, and can easily move Escobar to 2B (where it seems he's been getting some PT recently?). Alternatively, I agree with many posters that he might have more trade value right now than he'll ever have as a player, and it might be the time to move him rather than Hardy for pitching help or whatever (obviously HE should only be traded for an impact pitcher - Penny would not be worth it, in my opinion) I guess this is just a trade that shouldn't happen, right?

I don't want to be the Red Sox homer trying to inflate the values of my team's players (and honestly, neither of us are making the trade, so our opinions really don't matter) but I take issue with several of your claims. I think so far I've been reasonable in my valuing of both clubs players, and I'll try to continue to do so. Starting with Buchholz . . . this isn't a hot steak, Clay's been dominating AAA hitters for several years. As a 22yro in '07 he struck out 55 in under 40 innings, putting up a 3.9 ERA (not great), but had a 1.6 ERA in Boston, striking out a batter per inning over 22 innings. The next year, he posted a 2.4 ERA in AAA, striking out a batter per inning over 40+ innings. So far this year in AAA, he's got a 1.4 ERA, and once again is striking out about a batter per inning. Based on his age (JuCo Pitcher), performance, and stuff Buchholz is without question an elite pitching prospect. As hauser mentioned, the Sox have Lowrie (a doubles machine who I see as a somewhat similar player offensively to Hardy, but with poorer defense), meaning Hardy would simply be a rental. The Sox would be content to offer him arbitration and collect the picks from another team (as the Brewers likely will with Escobar nearly ready). If it were the Buchholz today for Hardy two years ago, that would be a completely different scenario, but I do not think I am being a homer by suggesting that the Sox would not give up a cost-controlled, major-league-ready starter with #1/2 potential for several months of a very good shortstop. For comparisson: The Angels got Tex at the deadline for Casey Kotchman The Brewers got CC for Matt LaPorta The Dodgers got Manny for Andy LaRoche and Bryan Morris Hardy is a solid player, but it is fair to say that he is not on par with the above three players. It would be unreasonable to expect Lars Anderson, Buchholz, or Mike Bowden, who each project to contribute at a high level in the majors for many years (All at least in LaPorta's class according to BA and other sources), for a few months of Hardy. I maintain that more realistic returns would be Dan Bard (who has torn up the minors since his move to the pen and is playing well in the majors), Josh Reddick, or some combination of players such as Nick Hagadone, Ryan Kalish, Stolmy Pimentel, Felix Doubront, etc. That was way longer than I intended, but for the brave few who read to the bottom of the post, I'd love to hear your thoughts.

My thoughts were that if Escobar is kicking down the door in AAA it would make Hardy expendable to fill other holes, but you're right, I don't think the Brewers could afford to lose Hardy's bat. A more likely scenario is Escobar at second w.r.t. the second part of your post, teams trade potential high impact players for average players at the deadline all the time. Particularly with A-ball pitchers like Odorizzi or Peralta, projectability does not always translate to improvement or production down the road. The attrition rate is so high among minor leaguers that it's a calculated gamble by both teams in a trade. Certainly Peralta's K rate, for example, suggests future success (while his career BB rate might not), but there's no guarantee he'll ever make AAA, much less the majors - even top 50 prospects like Edwin Jackson, Andrew Miller, and Homer Bailey flame out all the time (although there's still time for all of them to turn it around. I definitely respect where you're coming from (that's why I asked for people's thoughts) in not wanting to give up young, projectable arms for mediocre players, but at the same time, if the Brewers feel Penny could help them make a run in the playoffs THIS YEAR they have to at least considder it.

Just a couple thoughts as a Red Sox fan: (and as an aside, you guys should check out soxprospects.com - it's a good site a lot like brewerfan) The Sox would NEVER trade Clay for Hardy straight up. He's dominating AAA right now and already has an MLB no-hitter on his resume. I like Hardy and think he's probably one of the better shortstops in the league in terms of combining solid offense with really good defense, but Buch has ace potential and will be cost controlled for several more years which is not something any team would trade for a FA-to-be SS who will be earning a raise or returning 2 picks. I think a more realistic return would be a guy like Dan Bard or maybe Mike Bowden or some combination of #5-10 prospects like Kalish. Lars is probably off the table too. For comparisson, Johan only returned Carlos Gomez and some lower-level players w.r.t. Ellsbury, he's decent as aleadoff hitter, but not great. He has not demonstrated the isoD in the majors that he had throughout his minor league career, resulting in lower than desired OBP, and tends to slap at the ball too much. Apparently he shows good power in BP, though, so there is hope. Ellsbury's best trait, in my opinion, is hos defense, Unbelievable range and ball skills, even if the arm is sub-par.

If that is the case - that his bat will play up at second also - then it would seem to be a good move. He'll get to the majors faster and get more starts and PAs per season, and not playing catcher will likely prolong his career substantially from a health/durability standpoint.

maybe it was unclear, but that's not what I was suggesting. It was two different ideas (the second, Hardy for Penny and DelCarmen, really just being a response to previous discussion about MDC as a middle reliever at best) What I was really trying to gauge was Penny's perceived value relative to a B-/C+ prospect with upside like Odorizzi or Peralta among Brewer fans. To me that seems fair, although I get the feeling that a trade between Boston and the Brewers would expand to include both Penny and Hardy given the Sox struggles/injuries at SS.

Penny's not great, but he's started to turn it around and has been a league-average pitcher outside of his awful second start. More encouraging, he's really cut down on the free passes over the past 5 or 6 starts. He'd definitely be an upgrade over both Looper an Suppan and probably Parra for a reasonable price - most likely a prospect in the 8-15 range. Given the strength of their 'pen, I don't think the Sox would be interested in Swindle. I know they liked Odorizzi leading up to the draft, so he's a possibility, as are guys like Scarpetta and Wily Peralta. Do you guys see that as fair value? also, if acquired, Manny delCarmen would likely be the Brewers closer of the future. He's only 27 and has struck out almost a batter per inning with a 3.25 ERA over the first 200+ innings of his career. He sits in the mid 90's with his fastball, and has a pretty sharp curve that he's been able to spot well the past two years and has relatively low walk rates for a power reliever. That would definitely be a solid return for Hardy when packaged with Penny given Escobar's progress in AAA.

Hey, what's up . . . I'm new here and was hoping that some of you guys who have been following the Brewers minor league system for a while could help me out First, it seems that most responses in this thread have reflected positively on Lawrie's move to second, but doesn't that severely limit his upside as a prospect? X ellence mentioned that there aren't a lot of good 2B prospects in the minors, but it seems to me that this is a result of many of them coming up, at least in the lower levels, as shortstops. Dustin Pedroia comes to mind here (shifted off short for Hanley) as well as Emiliano Bonafacio (for Drew). Following the draft last summer, it seems that Lawrie's value was tied largely to an anticipated move behind the dish, where his bat would play up. Does he have the type of bat to be an impact offensive player elsewhere on the diamond, specifically at second? Second, where's the love for Michael Bowman? He's a little old for his level, but he's pitched pretty well in full season A for almost a full year, and his strikeout rates and K/BB are much improved this year to complement his solid ERA. What's the general concensus among you guys regarding his future prospects, and what more does he have to do this year to get a shot in Brevard county?