804Sox

If true, that would be a great return for Hart. Minor looks like a really solid pitcher, and even if nothing more than a #2/3 he'll be making the minimum for a couple years and under control for 6 years.

For what it's worth, I saw Brandon Belt in AA Richmond a couple days ago and he looked really good (in only his 2nd or 3rd game). You have to take his Cal League stats with a grain of salt, but the power's legit and I think he'll hit for decent contact/average too. He has a nice, balanced stance and generates tremendous bat-speed with a stroke that was much more compact than I expected for a power hitter in his first pro season. I think he's a definite player to target in a Fielder deal, but not a player Hart could return. Thomas Neal has looked good the couple times I've seen him too. He has a CANNON arm in the OF - one of the best OF arms I've seen in person - and does a good job staying back on pitches and taking what the pitcher gives him (going back up the middle, oppo field, etc). Don't see a star player, but definitely a solid contributor. Finally, the Bumgarner pipe dreams need to stop. I think we all saw why tonight - Bumgarner is a legit elite prospect and Hart is just not THAT good. I think getting Sanchez would be a steal for the Brewers for Hart. I really don't see him returning much more than Kieschnick(who has not impressed me)/Neal plus a Maday/Michael Main type pitcher - obviously not the haul many of you anticipate.

That's about what it would take, and I'd have to think about it for awhile as well. I'm not giving Hart away for a couple of marginal prospects with the season that he's having. Heck, 1.5 year slump notwithstanding, he's been an all-star 2 of the past three years. I'm also not as big of a Bumgarner fan as many are here. If he is that good, why haven't the Giants brought him up? Look at his K rate in AAA as well. woah woah woah. Now Hart is gonna bring back Bumgarner? Hart is still the same player we thought he was - an average RF. He's done a good job building on his improved plate discipline from last season in order to get good pitches to drive (he's always had some pop), but a regression is certainly in order. I expect an .800-.820 OPS from him for the rest of his season - basically his true talent level. Hart is neither the juggernaut that he's playing like now nor the scrub that many posters wanted to trade for a bag of balls this offseason. He's an ok, low-OBP hitter with good power and average-at-best defensive abilities. just for fun, we should all go back and re-read this thread from the off-season: http://brewersfandemonium...u.com?topic=21344?page=1

Miller's definitely a good "buy low" target, particularly given how expensive he's getting under his rookie deal. The Marlin's might be looking to shed his salary. That said, there's a significant chance that Miller will never live up to his College/draft-day hype. A good comp could be the Hermida trade from this offseason.

I'd take Marcum over Morrow . . . easily. Morrow's got a big arm, but he has yet to demonstrate that he can be a good pitcher. The Seatle org. jerked him around a lot and it's not totally his fault, per se, but he's definitely running out of time to capitalize on his talent and upside. Edit: And I don't think I'd trade Lawrie for either in the Brewer's position. I understand the desire to acquire top-of-the-rotation pitching, but Lawrie has a good chance to be a special hitter, and I wouldn't call Marcum or Morrow particularly special pitchers.

He's good, but I dunno . . . Gotta love the Longoria contract, and Braun too. Pujols is still the best hitter in the game by a wide margin. As far as pitchers, Lester's contract it pretty fantastic too. Strasburg's definitely in the conversation though.

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It's also important to note that he pitches in the AL East, and has started 2 games each against NY and BOS, one game against TOR, and one each against TEX and ATL. That's 7 of his 13 starts against the top 9 offenses in all of MLB. Davis is still just 24 and has accrued less than a full year of service time, meaning he (likely) has yet to reach his peak and will be under team control for 5 more years. There's a lot to like, particularly if he can develop a consistent change to go with his plus FB and breaking ball. In response to the following: "How does Fielders impending free agency and being a Scott Boras client make this a different situation than the Teixeira situation. Tex is also a Boras client, and was also dealt 1 1/2 years before free agency. Tex is a better defender, but Fielder is younger, with more name recognition." When Atlanta traded for Tex there was a sentiment that he might sign w/ ATL for a hometown discout as a GT player. When it was recognized that he was going to go to FA and get a big contract, they got far less in return from the Angels. I think the situation is VERY similar with Fielder. If he signs for any kind of bargain it will be with the Brewers, but anyone that trades for him should expect him to test FA. with a limited market for him in FA (only the rich, big market teams) the trade market is going to have fewer buyers too since no team, particularly no small market team, will want to trade legit prospects (which Fielder will certainly command) for a player that they won't have long term. I predict that the limited number of teams in the market to sign Prince in FA will drive his trade value down, inviting more teams to enter the bidding until the market reaches some sort of equilibrium.

Not insinuating that you're not paying attention, but Davis pitched well at the end of last year too (in addition to being a top prospect) so he hasn't exactly come out of nowhere. Niemann was a more highly regarded player (top 5-10 picks as I recall) entering the 2004 draft, but both were picked pretty high. Unfortunately, like the rest of that Rice staff (Humber and Townsend), Niemann lost some time due to arm injury and his stock dropped as a result. Here's BA's rankings over the past few years. Obviously not the be all/end all, but serves to demonstrate roughly equivalent value as prospects. Personally, I prefer Davis' stuff/upside - more of a strikeout pitcher - he's much easier to move to the back end of the pen (good FB/slider combo) if he can't stick in the rotation. As others have noted, though, can't really go wrong with either. 2010 3. Davis 2009 3. Davis 10. Niemann 2008 4. Davis 7. Niemann 2007 4. Niemann 7. Davis 2006 2. Niemann 6. Davis Edit: Didn't completely address your point. w.r.t. his time in the minors: I assume it was really 4 and 2 halves rather than 6 (2004 after he signed and half the year last year, but that's kind of splitting hairs. In any case, last season he was blocked in the rotation much like Hellickson is this year, so it wasn't for lack of performance. Seems he moved pretty steadily and gained steam as a prospect as time went on. Regardless, the overall point stands.

I see Davis as having potential, sure. But since when is this guy even in the same league talent- and results-wise as Price or Niemann? Davis alone for Fielder is absurd. Fielder is a an elite stud hitter, slow start notwithstanding. You trade a Prince Fielder, you start at Price or Niemann PLUS as the return or you're grossly undervaluing the best potential trade asset that we might actually consider moving (in other words, not Braun or Gallardo). 1) Price is not on the table 2) Niemann is probably a possibility, though a bit of a longshot. Davis is certainly in his league, though, and was considered by most to be the better prospect while both were in the system (for what it's worth). Either one would probably be a fair return for Prince and should be players that the Brewers target. Prince could definitely help push the Rays over the top if they see their current window closing, and either pitcher could be adequately replaced both in the short term and long term. 3) I think they'll most likely hold on to both. I think Davis' stuff plays up really nicely in the pen and I think he could become their closer of the future (pure speculation on my part). Additionally, if the rays are taking on Prince's contract to win this year, it would seem that they would be far less likely to trade a piece from the current team that's performing well (and is cheap for now). The Brewers and Ray both might be better served negotiating a package of younger players with a bit more upside than either Davis or Niemann. Colome and Matt Moore are two names that have been thrown around on this forum. One of them in addition to Nick Barnese and maybe a C prospect could be a decent return.

As far as baseball environment you may be right, but how much of that is a chicken or the egg-type situation. Do people not come because the atmosphere sucks or does the atmosphere suck because people don't come unless they're coming to cheer for the Yankees and Red Sox? I go to a fair number of Rays games because I have family in St. Pete, and honestly, I like the stadium a lot. The inside/air-conditioned facilities are definitely appreciated (by me) during the summer months, and the dome is helpful given the frequent afternoon T-storms (frequent = pretty much EVERY DAY). I'm not mad at the cheap ticket prices either, but that's a symptom of the problem.

What about Sonnanstine for McGehee in terms of value and feasibility? From the Rays' perspective, a Hellickson promotion could replace Sonn pretty easily, while the Brewers get a pretty decent pitcher. Gamel could replace McGehee in the Brewers lineup, and neither team would take on too much salary. Unfortunately, Sonnanstine is probably a #3-#4 starter in the NL, not the type of player the Brewers need to anchor the top of the rotation, just reinforcing the notion that keeping McGehee is probably the best move right now.

Not even sure what that means . . . anyways, I think his point was that it is impossible to sell high on McGehhe right now because his perceived value is less than his production do to better than expected performance and unspectacular pedigree. Phrased differently, teams have likely been reluctant to give up value equivalent to McGehee's production because there remain questions about whether or not he can sustain this level of production (his defensive limitations hurt too).

Yeah, but only because Ellsbury is still not completely healthy. I think you'll see him DFA'd within the next few days unless Ells goes back on the DL because the Sox usually carry 13 pitchers. It seems that you guys are right about him hitting well off lefties (limited SS I'm sure) so he could definitely be a decent platoon option.

He's just ok. Great athlete and good pedigree, but he's below avg defensively in CF, and doesn't have the bat to play the corners. His numbers are aided by a really hot start, after which his production has fallen off considerably. He was tearing up AAA to start the year though, so maybe he's figured something out offensively and can be a serviceable MLB player. Also, all reports indicate he's a great clubhouse guy. Francona seemed really upset to see him go.

So I guess the question is - and this is a philosophical question as much as a specific question - in trading a franchise player like fielder, do you hope to get one stud prospect (plus filler) in return to replace him (i.e. Fielder for Hellickson straight up), or hedge your bets by taking a greater number of lesser (or less advanced) high-ceiling prospects in the hopes that one reaches their potential or more than one become solid contributors (i.e. Moore and Colome)? What do people think? What are the merits and weaknesses of each, both in this specific case and in general? Is there a track record of one being more successful than others?

Who's rotation slot is he going to take? Garza? Shields? Niemann, Price, and Davis all have less than 2 years service time. I'll take whichever pitcher TB doesn't want to keep.Yup, I would take any of the current TB starters or Hellickson as a starting point for a Fielder trade. I just think TB is too smart to trade for Prince. I still can't believe they got the Twins to give them Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett for Delmon Young. Responding to all of this: You can never have enough pitching. Injuries happen, and rarely does a team make it through a season with their rotation in tact. There is no reason a team should trade away a sixth quality SP just because the rotation is "full" at the moment, especially when he (and most of the others that he could replace) are making the league minimum. Worst case, Hellickson pitches in relief while he gets his feet wet (a la Liriano and so many others), or they move another pitcher to that role. I think Price, in particular, could be dominant bullpen arm, as he was in the playoffs a couple years ago, but he's pitching well as a starter now, so you've got to keep him there. The good thing about pitching prospects is that they are rarely truly blocked. Also, the Twins-Rays trade looked balanced at the time. Delmon was coming off a solid rookie season and had been the consensus top prospect in baseball the year before. He showed poor discipline, but was known for great defense, good power, and a nice line-drive stroke. Garza had not reached his current level yet either, so I think it was viewed as a fairly balanced trade at the time - need for need.

Yikes. Asking for both might be a bit much. Hellickson is MLB-ready right now, so the fact that he's in the minor leagues sells his value a bit short. I think it is highly unlikely that hey would part with a player like Hellickson, particularly if Moore was included, even for a player of Fielder's caliber. It's just not the organizations' MO. I think a return of Moore and Colome would be much more reasonable. What would people think of that?

Problem is, Sox can't take Prince without moving Ortiz, which they seem unwilling to do.

I've been a McGehee skeptic since the beginning, but I'm starting to come around to the fact that he's a legit hitter. I doubt he'll be the type of power bat you want at 1B or 3B (more of an 18-25 HR player), and reports on his defense have indicated he might not be a great option at 2B or 3B (where his bat plays best among positions he "can" play), but I was wrong - kid can hit. I don't know how, I don't know why, but kid has become a legit hitter. Still, I think it will take a bit longer for his trade value to catch up - probably not until this offseason.

I disagree. He's still only 23, so it's a bit premature to say "his ship is starting to sail." On the contrary, I think this offseason's moves indicate that the Sox ARE high on him and the other OF in the high minors. The Red Sox have a recent history of making prospects force their way onto MLB rosters because there is an expectation to win every year, and the team has the luxury of being able to afford stopgap players like Cameron and Beltre (The Hermida trade was just an example of getting a good player at reduced value, in my opinion). Pedroia spent the first half of his rookie season in a platoon, Youkilis and Buchholz bounced back and forth between the minors and majors before sticking (despite Clay pitching a no-hitter and being like the #2 prospect in baseball according to BA), and Lowrie (even beofre all the injuries) never entered a season as the only starting option at SS. Before his emergency call-up last year, Reddick had never played above AA, and he struggled there to close out the year. I think that the Sox reluctance to sign Bay long term and interest in signing Cameron short term indicate (among other things) that the Sox believe he or one of the other OF prospects will be ready in the near term, but are not quite ready yet. I'm not completely sold on Reddick given his questionable plate discipline, but he has great power, good contact abilities, and is a superb defender capable of playing CF, so I think he'll carve out some sort of career on that basis alone.

The Sox have a couple good CF/OF prospects in the upper-minors - Josh Reddick is technically MLB ready now. He played a bit at the end of last season,showing flashes of what he can do. Unfortunately, he has struggled in AAA and needs to work on his plate discipline. He has a +/++ arm and is a decent defensive CF, but is probably best suited to play RF long-term due. - Ryan Kalish is another near-ready player who is capable of playing CF, but is better suited for a corner. He is a more well-rounded offensive player than Reddick - with decent power, speed, and average on top of good plate discipline - but has yet to play above AA. He should get promoted in the first half od this season and be MLB-ready by season's end. - C.H. Lin is a phenomenal defensive CF in AA, but is still at least a season away. He is reported to have olympic speed/range in the OF and a +/++ arm (not hyperbole when I talk about him and Reddick, I wouldn't throw ++ around lightly), but is raw offensively. He shows good OB ability but needs to work on staying back on the ball and driving it better. I think Ells' name has been tossed around in trades because he's more replaceable, but Reddick needs to step up his performance, because he's not going to be handed a job (he did hit really well in ST, but SSS . . .). While there are some intriguing replacement options, Lin is the only one that projects as a pure CF, and none of the three is being blocked by Ells, per se.

A more interesting thread might be one about who you would NOT trade Suppan for straight up. I'm drawing a blank . . . help me out

Me too. If there's any reason besides the contract you're out of your minds, and even then I'd probably take Hart.

I love Mike Lowell, but there is no reason to trade for an expensive, old, average offensive 3B that can't play 3B well anymore when you have a stud MLB-ready 3B prospect like Gamel. Plus, McGehee seems to be a nice utility-type player, so Lowell as a backup 3B is also superfluous. Lowell really only fits with an AL team where he can play a little 3B, a little 1B, and DH. Stop the madness. Please. Why are so many people so inexplicably down on Gamel? Edit: I should note that Lowell is valuable as a hitter, but he's not a great fit with the Brewers in my mind. And Salome would not be enough for the Sox to take back Suppan and his salary (he would be cut) while also paying most of Lowell's salary. You can buy better prospects with $18 mil.