804Sox

I still think Halladay would cost 2 of Escobar, Gamel, and Lawrie

Sure . . . But you'd need to add several of Escobar, Parra, Lawrie, Scarpetta, Peralta, Anundsen, Odorizzi, etc. too.

There is no package that the Sox or any other organization could put together that would equal Braun's value with his current contract. None. He, Longoria, and Pujols are basically unobtainable.

Yeah, but Aaron Harang won't . . . In any case, of course moving to the NL won't make Guthrie a better pitcher. changing leagues can't make someone a better or worse pitcher. What it can do, however, is allow for a reasonable adjustment in ERA projection . So, if we assume based on his career numbers and recent performance that Guthrie is approximately a 4.50 ERA pitcher in the AL East, arguably the best offensive division in the league with a DH, then we can maybe project him to be a 3.85-4.20 ish pitcher in the NL Central, a good offensive division in the league without a dh. The fact that there are outliers doesn't change the logic or validity of this projection, though my numbers are pure guesswork. Guthrie's NL Central stats next year could be worse than his '07 and '08 stats (and likely would be) or better; and they could be better or worse than his '09 stats (I think the 5.00+ ERA this year is kind of flukey, but he's not as good as his 3.70 ERAs in '07 and '08) but a lot of that has to do with with luck and random variation. w.r.t. gaudin, his stats are somewhat deceiving. Aside from 2008, he's always pitched much better in relief (as he has been used in NY until recently) than as a starter (as he was used in SD). Not surprisingly, he has spent most of his time in the AL as a reliever, and most of his time in the NL as a starter. In general, his NL sample is too small to make many generalization (only 130ish IP), but hiis ChC stats, already a very inconclusive 27 IP sample, are greatly skewed by the 10ER he gave up in 2 outings during a 4-appearance span near the end of the '08 season.

Chad Gaudin as a Yankee - 3.17 ERA Chad Gaudin as a Cub - 6.26 ERA I have not really said anything about Hardy up until now, I think the Brewers will get alot better player then Guthrie. Hardy's trade value is down yes, but come on. He is a great defensive shortstop, he is 27 years old and has 2 years left before he is a FA. If he was having the year he had last year (which I know he's not) he would be 3rd in the NL in OPS by a SS. You just don't get the production out of a shortstop that Hardy was giving Milwaukee, a couple teams are going to see Hardy and be willing to take a risk of him. Awesome point! The NL Central definitely is on par with the AL East as far as ERA adjustment is concerned . . . Chad Gaudin as a Yankee: 34.0 IP . . . (how's that sample size?) If we're gonna cherry-pick John Smoltz BOS: 40.0 IP - 8.33 ERA, STL: 34.0 IP - 3.18 ERA Edit: Perhaps a better comparison though, is Ted Lilly TOR: 505.1 IP - 4.52 ERA CHC: 581.2 IP - 3.68 ERA Edit #2: And I still think Hardy is worth more than Guthrie. He just hasn't impressed me when I've seen him.

wow. That would be underselling Gamel by a ton. Suzuki just isn't that good. Gamel is, or at least should be soon.

People need to stop throwing Greinke's name around when they talk about breakout players/candidates. Simply put, none of these other players have Greinke's pedigree as a prospect or pure stuff, which is among the game's best.

As someone that watches the O's quite a bit, I can tell you that Guthrie is not the answer. I'd target Arrietta in a deal with the O's

Is that the word out of Detroit? I had not heard these rumors at all. Acquiring Granderson would be a steal for the Brewers. he's one of the most dynamic players in baseball, as well as one of it's most charismatic and philanthropic. The benefits he would bring to the Milwaukee community alone would be worth his acquisition. Don't think Hardy would be enough, though, and I really don't see Granderson being available anyways.

I could definitely see a trade like Baker for Hardy happening, but I think adding McGehee, Spann, etc. makes it far too complicated. Carlos Gomez could be a guy to target, though. Seems that the twins like Spann in CF and they have some other OF on the way. He could definitely replace Cameron's D in CF. Could probably have him for a guy like Salome, who the Twins could slot in at DH.

A top of the rotation starter with a great track record for a utility IF coming off a career year? I can't imagine what qualms you're having about that deal . . .

Soooo, since the Washington Nationals beat the Phillies last year, they're pretty much the REAL WS champs, right? See the problem with that sort of logic . . . ? I'm going to recycle some points from my previous post, so sorry in advance. 1) Cain is nowhere near as good as Halladay, or even as good as Cain was several years ago. His stuff is much worse and his peripherals had been trending in that direction until this year. He's a really good pitcher, but I don't really trust him. he's young, and should be around for a long time, but he's done getting better too. 2) contract duration/control isn't an issue. Theo has only made big trades for players that he intended to hold on to long term. 3) The Halladay trade would have been within the division, so the Jays were no doubt asking for more from the Red Sox than, for example, the Brewers or Phillies. 4) and this is the most important point. NO TEAM GAVE THE JAYS WHAT THEY WERE ASKING FOR for Roy Halladay, so that package can't be used as a baseline for . . . anything. Star players don't return as much value as you would expect. the one exception to this in recent years is the Braves trade for Texeira, but that was recognized at the time as an unforgivable fleecing.

I disagree with several of your claims, in addition to that about my "Sox blinders" showing - I'm sure there's no pro-Brewer group-think going on around here that would inflate the percieved values of certain players - but I digress . . . 1) Halladay would have been a one and a half year "rental" if traded before the deadline this summer...Fielder would be under control for two years I think that given the Sox financial situation, if either are acquired it would not be as a rental, and neither would be acquired if the Sox didn't intend to sign them to a long-term deal. As such, years of control are not as much of an issue because the Sox are in the embarassingly fortunate position of being one of the few teams with the financial resources to essentially control players as long as they choose to. This has been theo's MO regarding trades for veterans. He locked up Beckett, Crisp (for what it's worth), and offered Bay a huge extension earlier this season. Theo doesn't trade big chips for rentals. 2) How can you say a 40 HR/.300 AVG guy who plays every day isn't worth more than a pitcher who pitches once every five days? Especially one who is already in his early 30's The classic starting pitcer vs. everyday position player argument. Honestly there's no correct answer, which is why I said it was my opinion that Halladay was more valuable. However, It's my opinion that a starting pitcher can control a single game, and even win a game "by himself" in a way that a position player can't. Halladay fits this bill more than most pitchers given how deep he goes in games and the efficiency with which he pitches. He has a very positive impact on a bullpen. Of course he can only go once every 4 or 5 games, but in the playoffs that becomes once every three. Regaring age, becasue Halladay is not a "power pitcher," I think he'll age pretty well. I think he has 3 or 4 more really good seasons. Certainly Fielder looks like he'll be better for a longer time, but he's limited to 1B or DH, for which it's easy enough to find a player hitting .270 with 30HR in free agency. Ace starters seldom hit FA, which is why they must be traded for unless you want to fill out the rotation by signing Carlos Silva's and Suppan's for 30-40 mil. 3) I'll keep this one short. Fielder would have to be a DH for the Sox because Youkilis and Victor Martinez are at 1B. Youkilis can play 3B now, giving them some flexibility, but he barely has the range now to play it well, and will not be a serviceable 3B for much longer. With Youkilis at 1B; Martinez needing somewhere to play when he's not catching; Bay a sub-par fielder in LF, that, if re-signed, would likely need to move to DH in the near future; and Lars on the horizon, I don't really see how adding Fielder to THAT mix would add more value to the Sox than Halladay 4) He's worth three to four very good young players. If no team is willing to give up a package like that, he won't be traded. The Brewers can just as easily hold onto him through 2011, and either trade him at the deadline (and probably still get something decent for him), or take a couple high compensatory draft picks. They don't have to trade him...it's arguable they shouldn't, because of the offense he brings to the Brewers right now. This is 100% correct

And Escobar is pretty young, and likely still adjusting to MLB pitching. PLus, regardless of how he's hitting, his glove and his speed make him a valuable player. More valuable than JJ with 10 more OPS points . . .

Absolutely not. That's good, neither would the Sox. Lars was a top 20 prospect in baseball coming into this year. An Escobar-type prospect. You don't give up on him after one down year as a 21yro in AA, particularly when he was dealing with back problems throughout much of the season and demonstrated the ability to hit AA pitching (although in a small sample size) the year before.

Just my opinion, but Fielder's value is nowhere near halladay's. At the deadline this year, Halladay was arguably the best pitcher in baseball. His performance has fallen off a bit, but he's still in the conversation. Fielder is a great hitter. Probably among the top 10 in baseball, but he's limited to 1B, and more likely DH down the road. 1B/DH types that are good hitters (although perhaps not as good as Fielder) are much easier to come by than Ace pitchers. That, among other reasons, is why so many on this board seem so willing to trade Fielder for pitching prospects. Elite starting pitching (and pitchers) win more games than a good hitter at 1B/DH. If he's traded, I think you guys are going to be shocked by how little Fielder returns, and, accordingly, I think that if the Brewers don't need to trade Fielder this offseason for financial reasons, they shouldn't. I don't think he loses THAT much value over the next year. His contract's too long to be a short-term stopgap this offseason, and next offseason teams will trade for him so that they can lock him up a la Johan and Miggy Cabrera.

Didn't realize Fielder was under control through '11. Looking at Cot's I assumed that they bought out his last 2 years of arb, not the first. In any case, if, for financial purposes, the Brewers don't need to trade Fielder, then they probably shouldn't. What the trades of other superstars over the past 5 years demonstrate is that you will NEVER get back full value (unless the players you get in return significantly outplay expectations) for these players for 2 reasons. 1) Even the best prospects have a very slim chance of becoming superstars, so if you are trading away a superstar the best you can really hope for is a volume of good players with a few that could potentially be stars. 2) Once you start down the path of shopping a star player the team is more or less committed to moving them, giving the teams looking to acquire this player leverage in negotiations. Usually it's the case that the best offer wins the prize, not one that meets a team's initial demands/expectations. The bidding teams are only competing against eachother, not some ideal offer. If, as with the Halladay "sweepstakes", the team ends up holding on to their star player, the bidding teams still know that it's only a matter of time till he's back on the market, and the price-tag will only go down. A couple other points: 1) re: Lester - He's not going anywhere. Probably the best LH pitcher in the AL right now (either him or Sabathia, who is a horse). He's young, cheap(ish for now) and has come up big in pressure situations/the playoffs repeatedly. I think he alone has more value than Fielder but that's really a moot point. 2) re: Johan - Santana was unquestionably the best pitcher in baseball at the time he was traded. Fielder is neither the best nor most valuable 1B, particularly given his defensive deficiencies and long-term prospects. Aside from the extra year of control for Fielder which I neglected, i don't see how, all else equal, you could expect a greater return for Fielder.

I think the best comparisons would be the A's acquisition of Matt Holliday, and the Mets' acquisition of Johan Santana. In both situations, the team was under the gun to trade their star player because they were not believed to be able to resign them after the season. Holliday returned: Carlos Gonzales, Huston Street, and Greg Smith, but Fielder is better than Holliday (at least he's a better hitter) Johan returned Deolis Guerra, Philip Humber, Carlos Gomez, and Kevin Mulvey. Unfortunately, for the Twins, none of those players have really panned out, but we'll account for their perceived value at the time. Somewhat surprisingly, Fernandez was off the table (Mets#1 Prospect) given the bidding war for Santana, suggesting that the bidding teams still have considerable leverage when trying to acquire a player seeking a big payday. I think the offer I proposed compares favorably to the Mets offer for Santana. Bowden and Tazawa are both more highly regarded than Mulvey was, and have higher upsides. Stolmy Pimentel doesn't have the upside that Guerra was perceived to have, but is closer to the majors at a young age and has legit #1/2 upside. Lars or Reddick is roughly equivalent to Carlos Gomez, and anything else the Sox through in (Kotchman, Fife, etc.) will amount to far more value than Humber provided.

That's probably fair value, but, in my opinion, it would be a lateral move for the Sox. Fielder's an elite hitter, but I don't see the Sox opening up holes at CF and in the rotation to get him. I think a more likely deal would probably be someting along the lines of: Casey Kotchman (simply to replace Fielder in the short term) Bowden or Tazawa (MLB ready #3/4 starter with #2 upside) Josh Reddick or Ryan Kalish or CH Lin (close to MLB ready "toolsy" OF) Felix Doubront or Stolmy Pimentel (lower level pitchers with higher upside) Fife or Weiland or Wilson (lower level college pitchers - could develop as starters but worst case are power arms out of the pen) This would be a young, cost controlled MLB player, 3 prospects in the 3-10 range, and 1 in the 10-15 range. In theory this deal falls a little short of what Fielder should return in terms of prospect rankings, but I don't think Kelly and Westmoreland are available, as they were the only prospects off the table in the King Felix offer. After that, the argument could be made for Bowden, Reddick, Kalish, or Tazawa being the #3 prospect in the sox system, so being able to get 2 of those really isn't that bad. Lars Anderson is also a possibility in this trade, particularly given the development of Anthony Rizzo (or Rizzo could be traded), but I'd hate to see the Sox "sell low" on him after a down year.

Don't think Liz is a good Comp for Jackson. I'm young, but Edwin was one of THE most hyped pitching prospects I can remember, and he broke into the majors at a really young age. I guess "next Edwin Jackson"s to target would be like Phil Hughes or David Price or Clayton Kershaw or Clay Buchholz if their teams ever gave up on them. Maybe even Chris Volstad or Homer Bailey, but I'm hesitant to include Bailey because i've never seen why people think he'd be a good baseball player. Similar situation is Edinson Volquez. Seems like it's always the guys with amazing stuff but early career control issues that you should never give up on. (and, on the other side of the coin, pursue). In this case maybe Jonathan Sanchez is a guy, but he doesn't have the same kind of pedigree as the others, despite the no-hitter.

I think they'd move him because of his contract

I'd look at Meche and Milwood, among others. The track record for pitchers moving from the AL to the NL over the past couple years has been amazing. Lee, Sabathia, Smoltz, Lowe, Padilla, Piniero, Vazquez, and Penny all come to mind, but I'm sure there are more. Also,even though there are probably several, I can't think of a pitcher who has pitched worse after a move from the AL to NL off the top of my head.

The Marlins have 6 legitimate starting pitchers, and Nolasco is 1 of only 2 in the group that is expensive. They'll need a 2B or 3B if Uggla is dealt. True, but: 1) He'll still be reasonably affordable at least through next year, and his poor ERA will actually help the Marlin's keep his salary down, I imagine 2) Nolasco is arguably the team's best pitcher behind Josh Johnson, and I still believe that the Marlins would like to keep him until they see their Hanley-era championship window closing unless he brings an excellent return 3) Because the Marlins are in the "win now" phase of their cycle, I see it as more likely that they use minor leaguers to acquire a 3B/2B than a key piece of their current team.

This offer my be a little light, but not alot light. Like you said, it would take a little less than the King Felix offer. That offer was what, 3 prospects of Seattles choice? What we don't know is if that included guys like Bucholz, who was in the majors at the time. MaGehee is an MLB 2B-3B with a 840 OPS and will be under control for 5 more seasons. Salome had an OPS over 900 last year in the Southern League. he's pretty talented. Scarpetta is big and strong, with low 90s heat and a killer curve that has lead to huge K totals as a 20 year old starter. He's also valuable. I was under the impression that it was five or even six of anybody (including Buchholz) except Westmoreland and Bard. There were lots of conflicting reports though. What the Mariners' rejection of the trade offer comes down to, though, is that there is essentially no package of players that could entice them to move King Felix. The Sox, it seems, were literally willing to give away the entire farm for him, and the M's turned it down. Johnson doesn't have THAT kind of value, but I think it would be similarly true that no team would be willing to put together the type of package that it would take to get him, and from the Brewers POV such a package would reasonably include Escobar, Gamel, and Lawrie. probably Scarpetta and/or Peralta too.

Unless the PTBNL is Arnett - I think the Marlins could find a much better offer. Agreed. Josh Johnson is probably one of the top 15-20 most valuable players in baseball. Young, affordable, PROVEN aces are hard to come by. He would garner a King Felix-type return (probably a bit less)