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Funketown

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Everything posted by Funketown

  1. Funketown
    I wouldn't worry about Dillard becoming the next Balfour. Balfour's K-rates in AAA were absurd, he was more of a high-ceiling guy who just needed to put it together in the majors. Even as a reliever, Dillard has never been overpowering in AAA. Sure, he may be able to develop into a mediocre middle reliever, but the odds on Dillard striking out 82 in 58 innings are quite low. Estrada's AAA numbers are significantly more impressive than Dillard's, and he projects to be a much more valuable MLB player. Besides, seeing Estrada on the back of a jersey will help us to remember everybody's favorite slap-hitting catcher.
  2. Funketown
    I don't understand this. If I were given the choice between a 100% chance of $45,000,000 or a 95% chance of $80,000,000, I would without a doubt take the $45,000,000. Perhaps Braun was smart enough to realize that once you get to a certain level of wealth, additional wealth does yield significant increases in quality of life.
  3. Funketown
    This doesn't justify the notion that wins should be used to judge pitchers, it justifies the notion that wins are used to judge pitchers in Hall of Fame voting. Both RBI's and wins are highly dependent on opportunity. Braden Looper went 14-7 last year, while Yovani Gallardo went 13-12. Likewise, David Ortiz (.238/.332/..462/.794) had 99 RBI's last year while Ben Zobrist (.297/.405/.543/.948) only had 91. If Ben Zobrist and David Ortiz were both given the same opportunities to drive in runs, Zobrist would have crushed Ortiz's total.
  4. Funketown
    http://www.mlbtraderumors...pursuing-gabe-gross.html Gross can earn up to $250K from contract incentives. I'm not very familiar with the A's, so I'm not really sure how much playing time he can expect, but this looks to be a good signing for the A's.
  5. Funketown
    Those extrapolated career statistics are fun to look at. They have Hernandez projected at 247 wins Sabathia at 290, that really makes you wonder how long until we see another 300 game winner. They've got Dunn at 587 homers, Howard at 543, Longoria at 526, M Cabrera at 535, Pujols at 681. If there's one thing the Brewers have going for them in trying to extend Fielder, it's the free agent market which will likely contain Pujols, Ryan Howard, and Adrian Gonzalez, so long as none of them gets extended. If I were Fielder, I might consider taking a discount on an extension through 2012 or 2013 to avoid competing with those guys. Let's just hope Albert doesn't re-up with St. Louis at a ridiculous discount. I have a feeling R-Ho won't be giving anyone a discount.
  6. Funketown
    A projection around .275/.325/.375/.700 is pretty reasonable for Cabrera, probably something like .225/.300/.350/.650. When defense is added into the equation, I'm hard-pressed to believe Cabrera will provide even near $3MM in excess value over Janish. I could well be missing something here, as I don't follow the Reds very closely, but on the surface, I'm not sure I see the point of this deal. It's hard to be too critical of, given the value, but still... Although, to be fair, Janish did have another -.12 WAR from his pitching. That should really hurt his value going forward. (This should be in blue, I'm too lazy to hit blue).
  7. Funketown
    Well, let's hope this is $650,000 saved. Arbitration hearings can be a bit unpredictable, but I don't see how Hart can justify that raise. What would he even get on the FA market at this point? Something like 2/10, 3/14? If we take the 40/60/80 system as law (which it clearly isn't), this would be like Hart saying he's worth $8MM on the FA market. Take it for what it's worth.
  8. Funketown
    I don't personally put much stock in Gilded Gloves. Edmonds was terrible in the outfield for the Cubs in 2008. He took terrible paths to the ball; many of the 'highlight reel' plays he made would have looked routine for an average center fielder. Especially in the outfield, I think you see a lot of guys who just fall of the face of the earth, in terms of defensive value. If Edmonds is a league-average center fielder (defensively) next year, either Nyjer Morgan, Mike Cameron, Franklin Guitierrez, and Carlos Gomez all fall down a mystery time warp a la Ozzie Smith in the Simpsons, or something magical has happened.
  9. Funketown
    Something isn't kosher about those projections, they're way out of wack. Just to clarify, 895 runs against in 162 games is 5.52 per game. Unless Jeff Suppan starts every game for the Brewers, that's a ridiculously high projection.
  10. Funketown
    I guess it all depends on how he can play in center, but it would not surprise me if he's 30 - 35 runs worse than Gomez in center over the course of a season. Braun will probably not get too many days off, if any, so Edmonds would probably only play LF if Braun were to get injured. If that's accurate that the Brewers told Edmonds he'd play every day against righties, I wonder if this whole thing is more directed at Hart. I just don't see Edmonds having any value as a platooning center fielder. Even if he hits .260/.360/.540/.900 against righties, his lack of range in center will likely take it all back. Again, if Edmonds has completely lost it, it will be evident in spring training. If he can truly hit righties to the tune of .260/.360/.540/.900, then he may well have some value to the Brewers in RF and as a late inning pinch hitter.
  11. Funketown
    At this point, I'm pretty skeptical that Edmonds will be able to provide much value to the Brewers. His range was painfully brutal in CF for the Cubs in 2008, and I can't imagine it has gotten better. I guess it can't hurt to see what he has in spring training. If his bat is still strong, he could be a good, cheap bench option.
  12. Funketown
    Career MLB line of .293/.349/.396/.745 in 711 PA's. Looks like he has some experience at 2B and in the OF, along with some SS experience in AAA. I'm guessing this is just another player to have in the system that could help in the case of a Weeks injury. Just glancing at his slash line, looks like a smart pickup. I won't fret about losing Smith, and I would assume no one else will either.
  13. Funketown
    Wait, are you possibly saying that ESPN viewers are not looking forward to watching Dayton Moore's Kansas City Royals? People will practically forget the 4th of July is a national holiday once they see that Yuniesky Betancourt and Jason Kendall are on the diamond at the same time.
  14. Funketown
    Surprised this hasn't been posted yet. http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/82726377.html Take it for what it's worth, that's just above the midpoint.
  15. Funketown
    Here's something I found interesting on Nady's platoon splits: HR% vs. RHP: 3.98 vs. LHP: 3.52 BB% vs. RHP: 4.69 vs. LHP: 8.92 SO % vs. RHP: 20.30 vs. LHP: 18.76 ISO: vs. RHP: .183 vs. LHP: .163 BABIP: vs. RHP: .302 vs. LHP: .351 Nady has drawn significantly more walks against lefties, but his increased batting average against lefties can be attributed to his elevated BABIP rather than a higher HR% or a significantly lower SO%. Is there anywhere to get batted ball data (LD%, GB%, etc.) sorted by this platoon split?
  16. Funketown
    Heyman reports $10MM plus incentives. At that price, I'm not really sure how I feel about this deal for the A's.
  17. Funketown
    I'm just happy to see he won't be on the Northside next year. That's more than I expected Sheets to get, but he must have been throwing the ball really well.
  18. Funketown
    Does Gomez have any options remaining?
  19. Funketown
    They could just have one team in each league take three days off while the others play their series. With interleague play, I doubt it would be impossible to simply have one interleague series (or more) at a time. Heck, someone could probably write a scheduling algorithm fairly easily.
  20. Funketown
    Haudricourt reporting the two sides settled at $4.215 million plus an incentive for games pitched.
  21. Funketown
    The Brewers have a stockpile of guys they could use in CF if Gomez fails. It's starts of course with Gerut. Iribarren has played some CF in the minors and was playing there in winter ball. On AAA contracts they have Trent Oeltjen who's minor league numbers (like Iribarren's) suggest he could hit major league pitching, and Norris Hopper who for half a season in 2007 was really a pretty good offensive top of the order guy for the Reds. Behind them are 2 of the Brewers most highly rated prospects, Lorenzo Cain and Logan Schafer, neither of whom for which it's out of the realm of possibility could end up a factor before it's done in 2010. Here are last season's MLE's for Oeltjen, Iribarren, Cain, Schafer, and Hopper Oeltjen: .256/.304/.407/.711 Iribarren: .275/.317/.352/.669 Cain: .182/.231/.277/.508 (injury-shortened season) Schafer: .246/.289/.342/.631 Hopper: .238/.284/.277/.565 Given Gross's defense, I'm hard-pressed to believe any of those guys could outperform him next year. Of those five, I agree with the MLE's that Oeltjen would probably be most productive in the big leagues. Schafer could develop into a very good hitter, but he needs to work through the minors, Cain as well. Norris Hopper is very far removed from his mediocre half of a half-decent major league season, while Iribarren doesn't look like much more than a AAA/AAAA guy at this point.
  22. Funketown
    Doesn't even matter then.I think it does. If you think about a baseball game, the home run that will add the most to the odds of winning the game would be the first. The second would increase the odds further, but not as far as the first (aggregated over a huge sample of games). The third will yield and even smaller change in +WPA (or whatever metric is used to represent change in % chance of winning the game), and the fourth even less. Heck, by the time a player hits his fourth homer, the team most likely already has 5-6 runs, so adding another couple isn't really all that valuable. That said, there are no players who hit all of their HR's in bursts of four consecutive AB's, so this is more hypothetical than anything.
  23. Funketown
    Even the thought of this makes me nervous, but this is just ludicrous. Neither the Marlins' front office nor the Rays' front office would let this happen, let alone anyone else. Those teams can't draw fans as it is, so you have to wonder how they'd be able to draw with another MLB team in the state.
  24. Funketown
    Thank you. As long as a player doesn't collect all his homers in four HR games, it really doesn't matter how performance is distributed.
  25. Funketown
    Yeah, but Gabe Gross might not believe he can be a top-line center fielder. "[W]hen I’m playing every day, I feel I can be a top-line center fielder, and that, I would think, is what a lot of teams want.” - Gary Matthews Jr.
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