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Funketown

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Everything posted by Funketown

  1. Funketown
    For pitchers with over 300 IP's, Parra has the highest career BABIP for any major league pitcher since the turn of the century. The 20th century, that is. I think there is no question that there is variance in pitchers true BABIP 'abilities', for lack of a better word. However, arguing that Parra's stuff has lead him to having the highest BABIP in Major League Baseball since Grover Cleveland was our president would seem to be a bit facetious. Here are a few pitchers I've looked up on Fangraphs, along with their career BABIP's. Jeff Suppan: .301 Pedro Martinez: .291 Roger Clemens: .294 Braden Looper: .295 Randy Johnson: .302 Claudio Vargas: .292 Nick Blackburn: .312 Jason Marquis: .288 Gavin Floyd: .290 It certainly doesn't appear to be the case that the more hittable pitchers allow more hits on balls in play. Edit: Just ran a regression analysis on excel for 2009 MLB pitchers with over 150 IP's to check the relationship between Fangraphs' wFB and BABIP. The results were a correlation coefficient of .356 and an R^2 of .127.
  2. Funketown
    I don't think this means anything. Neither Kottaras nor Treanor is in the teams long term plans. I am guessing one of them will start the season backing up Zaun, and then be either sent down or released when Lucroy is ready to come up. I think Salome may be traded, but I don't think this signing will have any effect on whether or not he is.
  3. Funketown
    Funny, that was the first thing I did after reading the trade. I'm not quite as excited now that I know the Cubs will receive $9MM, but still. The fan projections on Fangraphs currently estimate Bradley to be worth 3.0 wins next year. Pegging him at 2.0 the year after, that's five wins for the Mariners over 2 years. I think a generous projection to Silva gives him 1.5 wins next year and 1.0 wins the year after. That's a 2.5 win loss over two years for the Cubs to cut $5MM from payroll.
  4. Funketown
    http://www.mlbtraderumors...to-sign-kameron-loe.html Looks like a very solid depth signing from Doug and Co. In 343 career innings (47 starts), he has a 4.77 ERA, 4.71K/9, 3.22 BB/9, 0.86 HR/9, 4.49 FIP, 4.52 xFIP, and a GB% of 55. I'd never head of this guy before, but looking at just the raw numbers, I would have thought someone would have picked him up by now. Whatever the deal is, he will certainly be a nice 6/7 starter to have in AAA. http://www.fangraphs.com/...erid=4422&position=P
  5. Funketown
    http://www.mlbtraderumors...lking-bradley-trade.html Looks like another excellent trade from Jack Z. From what I've read, the Cubs will be taking on all of Silva's $24MM, and the Mariners all of Bradley's $21MM. Silva has been pretty brutal over the past few years. I would think this trade makes the Cubs at least two wins worse, unless there is more to the deal. If this is truly all there is to it, I am a happy man.
  6. Funketown
    I was as disappointed with Cameron leaving as anyone, but I would think the loss is more 1-2 wins. Giving Cameron +5 on offense, +10 on defense (including positional adjustment), he looks like a 3.5 win player. Projecting Gomez as -15 on offense, +15 on defense (including positional adjustment), that's a 2 win player. Maybe I'm being too generous to Gomez on defense, but everything I've heard says he's phenomenal in the field.
  7. Funketown
    Seems like the logical thing to do. I'm going to miss DiFelice next year, something about watching the best right handed sluggers in the game look foolish on an 82 MPH pitch that hardly breaks is very entertaining.
  8. Funketown
    For what it's worth, UZR still views him as a decent defender. I'm sure he doesn't have the range he used to have as a Cub, and he still has that rubber arm, but I'd probably say he's about an average center fielder these days. That said, I'm just happy he won't be spending any time in Miller Park next year (okay, I'd be happier if he were wearing a Cubs uniform).
  9. Funketown
    Quite honestly, I don't think the Brewers should go out and make another "big deal", simply because I just don't see that many players on the free agent market that are worth a big contract from the Brewers. Looking at starting pitchers, this weak market is already somewhat depleted. You've got Doug Davis, Jon Garland, Joel Piniero, and Jarrod Washburn that could possibly get "big deals", depending, obviously, on what Melvin considers a "big deal". Jon Garland is Jon Garland, Piniero is looking for major money, and we've all been over Washburn and Davis before. At this point, I think it makes the most sense to look at where things are, and take a couple flyers on some high-risk guys. Offer a few incentive laden deals to guys like Chien-Ming Wang, Bedard, Duchsherer, Smoltz, and Pedro, and just see what happens. If the price isn't right, just let it be. A rotation of Gallardo, Wolf, Parra, Bush, Suppan probably projects to be just slightly below average, and I just don't think it would be a very efficient use of Melvin's resources to give a below average pitcher a deal if the money isn't there.
  10. Funketown
    When was the last time they regretted a big deal they gave out? DLice-K comes to mind. No way he is worth anywhere near the $100M (including posting fee) he got.
  11. Funketown
    Per Heyman, SI: http://sportsillustrated....lackey.redsox/index.html
  12. Funketown
    Wow, this is huge. Jack Z has certainly been busy since taking the helm over there. Hard to judge the deal without knowing who everybody gave up.
  13. Funketown
    Don't figure to see anyone complaining about this signing. Bill James projects Counsell to be about 8 runs below average per 300 plate appearances. Adding ten runs for replacement adjustment, he's two above. Adding another 8-10 for defense and position (SS,3B,2B), he looks to be a solid one win player. Great guy to have on the bench.
  14. Funketown
    Just got back from a weekend without internet to see this great news. So happy I can finally believe it is over.
  15. Funketown
    I haven't made any projections yet, but I would think this team projects to a mean of 80-85 wins right now. Now, this is assuming that Gomez is not a complete black hole in the lineup while playing great defense, which is a serious concern. I certainly don't have the data, but I would estimate that a (projected) 75 win team would make the playoffs something like 5-10% of the time, an 80 win team 10-20% of the time, and an 85 win team 25-30% of the time. Maybe the 85 win team number is low. If the Brewers had a 20% chance to make the playoffs every year, I think I'd be happy. Even with a projected 80-win season, I'm just hoping this will be an exciting year (as in, playoff push).
  16. Funketown
    Is this serious? Dave Cameron had a pretty good write-up about this signing. Even though this is only a 15 million dollar deal, this is still one of the worst signings I have ever seen. Just brutal. Guys like Lyon can be found on just about any scrap heap in the Majors.
  17. Funketown
    I'm fond of the career 3.39 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Spectacular pitcher. The difference between a special player (Harden) at a team-friendly contract (1 year, $7.5 per) and a pedestrian player (Wolf) at 3 years, $9 per is such a monumental difference. It's like the deals happened in two totally different environments, yet they happened on the same day. I can't fathom it. Paying a premium for 200 innings of merely average/good pitching instead of much, much less money for 140 innings of very good pitching makes no sense to me. We'd be far better off right now if we had Harden at 2 years, $14 million than we are with Wolf at 3 years, $30 million. It's heartbreaking. I think you're a bit overoptimistic on the innings totals for Harden. Over the past four years, he's pitched just 361 innings. That's about 90 per year. His fastball has dropped in velocity from 94.4 MpH in 2005 to 92.0 MpH last year. His strikeout numbers are outstanding, but he was pretty eratic on the mound last year, and he is prone to the longball. Harden could very well put up a 3 WAR season next year, but he could also put up a .4 WAR season. I think Harden and Wolf both project as somewhere around 2 WAR pitchers on average, but Wolf is significantly less risky, and likewise, more valuable. That said, I like the Harden signing for the Rangers. I just think it's a bit outlandish to decide that the Wolf signing was so terrible based on a high risk player getting 7.5 million on a one year deal plus option.
  18. Funketown
    Especially with pitchers. Looking at just '07 to '09 is under 200 PA's, which is obviously a small sample, but how well a pitcher handles a bat certainly changes over the course of ten years. I wouldn't say that Wolf's ability at the plate makes this a steal for the Brewers, but it certainly adds some value to the deal, albeit minimal.
  19. Funketown
    Looks like 2 years, 7.5 million. You've got to wonder if the Brewers have a bit more cash to spend than we had thought. Still though, I think this is about 2-3 million more than he should have gotten. Don't really get this signing.
  20. Funketown
    Probably not quite, but if Capuano had a similar injury history to Wolf, giving him something like 3/24 million would seem like a decent deal for both sides. I do think Wolf is slightly better than Capuano was a few years ago, so I just don't think that 3/29 is a huge overpay. They might be overpaying by a couple million, but making it out to be a Suppan-esque deal, which many here are, is completely misguided.
  21. Funketown
    I think the odds are pretty high that Wolf is worth the 29 million over the life of the contract. I am really getting sick of people comparing Suppan to Wolf. Seriously, Career K/9 Wolf: 7.42 Suppan: 4.97 Career BB/9 Wolf: 3.24 Suppan: 3.07 Career K/BB Wolf: 2.29 Suppan: 1.62 Career HR/9 Wolf: 1.13 Suppan: 1.19 Career ERA: Wolf: 4.12 Suppan: 4.68 Career FIP: Wolf: 4.28 Suppan: 4.85 Career xFIP: Wolf: 4.24 Suppan: 4.65 Career tRA: Wolf: 4.93 Suppan: 5.86 By all accounts, Wolf is about half a run better per nine innings. That's 10 runs in 180 innings. That is a massive difference. The only thing he has in common with Suppan is his age at the time of the signing.
  22. Funketown
    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/randy-wolf-signing-imminent.html The deal will be agreed upon today, and looks like 3 years and slightly less than 30 million.
  23. Funketown
    Count me out on Garland, unless it's something like a 1 year, 3 million dollar deal. He just screams of Jeff Suppan. Career K/BB of 1.62, career HR/9 of 1.12, career FIP of 4.72. Currently, Suppan has a K/BB of 1.62, a career HR/9 of 1.19, and a career FIP of 4.85. They both have averaged just under 5K/9 and right around 3BB/9. Their batted ball tendencies are quite similar, with Suppan having a been a bit better at inducing ground balls. Wolf has a career K/BB of 2.24 (7.42K/9, 3.42 BB/9), 1.13 HR/9, and a career FIP of 4.28. I think it's reasonable to expect him to be half a run better per nine innings. It is quite unfair to compare Wolf to Suppan or Garland, as he is clearly in the next tier of starting pitchers.
  24. Funketown
    His BABIP was .203 last year. If you look at the lowest career BABIP's for pitchers with more than 1,000 IP's, Babe Ruth holds the top spot with a .246 BABIP. It is phenomenally rare to find a pitcher who can actually sustain a BABIP below even .270 for an extended period of time. Fly ball pitchers have the tendency to convert more balls in play to outs, but sustaining anything below .270 for a significant sample size is extremely improbable, especially for a pitcher like Vargas.
  25. Funketown
    No thanks on Gonzalez, unless he comes phenomenally cheap. I just don't think it's worth it to forfeit a second rounder on a reliever of his caliber. As for Gregg, I just don't think he's worth more than a million or so. I guess that's where Jim Hendry and I differ (zing).
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