Has anybody actually run the numbers on the contact play or does everybody here just automatically assume that it costs the team runs? I think that the emotional reaction of getting a guy thrown out at home just drives people nuts so much that they try to avoid it at all costs even if it is a decent play by the numbers. People do realize that if the contact play is NOT on, a routine out will almost always be made at first, right? The only time I think it's a horrible play is when there is only a guy on third and nobody out. How many times has the contact play been on in that situation? I can't remember any, but I haven't watched a lot of games this year. If there is one out and just a guy on third, I don't really like the play, but I don't think it is horrendous depending on the runner and where the ball was hit. When there are 2 guys on base, the contact play is always the right play. If it doesn't work, no big deal, you still have 2 runners on base. But if it DOES work, you have a run, and if you happened to force a throw home, you have a run, you STILL have 2 guys on base, and you also have another out to work with in the inning. I would guess that it only needs to work somewhere around 5% of the time in order for it to be worth it in that scenario. You just don't lose very much when it doesn't work. A runner on third with one out or a runner on first with one out. Tell me which situation you would rather have.