HiAndTight

No....not really. Not IMO. What it does mean is we lose the picks just like we did with Sheets as I suspect that Marcum at his age and coming off the seaons he's had the last 3 years(if this isn't serious and he only missing 2-3 starts and pitches well the rest of the wawy) that he'd turn down the 12-13 million for one year and take that 4 year 50 million dollar deal. Hell, even 4 year 40 million dollar would be worth it with his injury history. Anyway, pitchers with good stuff who go around the league the first time can put up some eye popping numbers. It's far more common that they do not obviously, but take a guy like Vince Worley. People hadn't seen him. I'd said if we could get a 1992 Cal Eldred type performance, that could be our saving grace. Obviously a toned down type performance as nobody is going 11-2 with a 1.79 ERA and 11-1 with a 1.49 ERA in his first 13 starts, but they(I throw Fiers into the mix and I think he should remain the start as he's just performed so well and I don't think it's been smoke and mirrors. People have given up on this team far too early IMO. Yes, we lost Gamel. But Aoki has really helped make up for that. Weeks is starting to turn it around, Aram is CLEARLY getting hot and playing much better. Our offense IS starting to come around, and we've still got Lucroy coming back. And finally, I believe that our 7th/8th and 9th inning guys are going to pitch closer to how they threw last year. These teams that start off slowly and get hot and make a run like several teams have in past years have had X-factors. Thornburg COULD be that guy, Fiers could help be that guy. This might just inject some life into the team. If we can get a 6 IP 2 ER 8 K type game out of him where he's got his command down...that could be a huge boost. And now you're talking about just adding one player. Hell, you JUST add Marco Scutaro and you strike early as Melvin is known to do, get Lucroy back and this team looks a whole lot better, and one week can take us from out of the race, to right back in it. Of course, TT could just as easily come up and go 3.1 IP and get hit hard..but most my argument would stand. Fiers has been extremely impressive and Estrada makes our pen look a lot better.

The worst trade the Brewrs have made is Marcum for Lawrie and I don't think that one is even going to be close.

So you want us to sell, and it's a good thing our second biggest trade chip is on the DL with a sore elbow? That makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. And this his nothing to do with the fact that I think it's entirely premature to declare the Brewers not capable of winning. You just need to look at some of the teams that have made the playoffs after slow starts in recent memory in the NL.

You have an allie here because people use WAR to try and determine how many games you'll literally win with one player. Ie, "it doesn't make sense to trade for K-Rod, at best he'll give you a half a win over the rest of the season." It's absurd to look at it that way. I think though comparing players it's a great metric. It's not perfect, and I think it's most useful at the end of the year(obviously). But I just hear excuses regarding Lawrie. We shift out guys all over the place. Lots of teams use shifts. Not all the sudden it costs Lawrie? Who by the way, I would say has been more than "pedestrian," at the plate. .291/.338/.417 line from a guy who won't turn 23 until next Jan? Pretty respectable line. But I think it softens the blow to try and argue why he's not as good as the numbers show or most of the experts are arguing.

It's funny, I said that Lawrie had a chance to be as good as Ryan Braun and match him if not surpass him in his peak years given his ability to play defense and his obvious ridiculous offense(again, at this age Braun was playing in A+ and AA). I was mocked for making that statement. And now that Lawrie's bat's heating up, and he's playing great defense there is every excuse to diminish him. Dude's just a stud. The Marcum-Lawrie trade will probably be talked about in 15 years, if not by many people as a terrible trade, at least Brewers fans. For the record, I do believe Braun will always be the better hitter. But I think plus defense and VERY good offense from Lawrie could easily lead to 7-8 WAR seasons a couple times in his career.

And he PROBABLY picked the worst times in each players collective careers just about in order to make such a point. The fact of the matter is, those aren't "average" players, those are well above average players. To a man. I apologize in advance, but it's just utterly ignorant to go through a teams roster, look at who happens to be struggling the worst at the time and say, "see, if we just didn't sign those players, we could have kept two really good players." ONE of which is in year ONE of his near contract and you would almost CERTAINLY be complaining about in years 3 and 4 because of his defense or whatever. And what's more, would likely NOT be complaining about if Gamel hadn't gotten hurt. Same goes for Gonzalez. And you know what? We could have signed Prince. Add one more gaping hole to our current roster but add Prince..and I suspect the difference between 1st this year and 1st last year won't be as significant as you seem to think. Sabathia was never coming here. The Yankees were always going to up the price. They were going to give him a deal that would cripple the Brewers if that is what they needed to do...and it resulted in a WS win for them. And the next test will be Greinke. And the Brewers CAN afford him regardless of those contracts. One last comment I'll add, your comment about "dusting off," those minor league players...what the hell are we doing right now? They've been fully dusted. What's that doing for us? It's just an annoying post because it shows how quickly we can forget a players contributions during a slump and just play totally dumb by citing them at their lowest points.

As someome who's wanted to and argued for dealing Hart for years, I don't know how you can say that. He's just so clearly not given too much credit. Look at the numbers he's put up? If you're putting up 4-5 WAR and you get very little mention or very little play, I don't see how you can say he's getting TOO much credit.

Playoff caliber or not is yet to be fully determined, but Morgan is not a difference maker and you are right on the money as far as the future of the franchise. 2011 is over. Nyjer was a nice story and a played a role on that team. So was Bob "Hurricane" Hazle on the 57 Braves championship team. But both were role players, not stars. Hazle fizzled in 58 and was dealt in midseason. Now Morgan has a better pedigree than Hazle did, but the comparison fits. Morgan isn't doing it this year. It's time to move on. The "locker room presence" thing is off the mark as well. This year the locker room has guys like Green, Maldanado, Fiers, all of whom played with Schafer. It's a far different locker room. Lucroy, when healthy, has emerged as a leader. So in a way is Gomez. Hopefully, their success has finally convinced the very conservative Melvin that guys who weren't first round picks actually can contribute on the major league level. Schafer's been hot lately, and like Green was once the Brewers minor league player of the year. There's no need to block him with a Morgan. No offense to Morgan, but guys like him are available if needed every year for little (ala Dykstra). Yeah, Morgan can't be a difference maker. He's only put up WAR's of 4.0 and 5.2 in 2 of the last 3 years. Not a difference maker. He certainly didn't engergize the team last yeaer at all. And I won't even tough the comment about "maybe this will convince Melvin that you don't have to be a 1st round pick to contribute. I haven't even got a clue where that comes from. Lucroy, Gomez, Gallardo, Hardy, Hart, Morgan, Narveson, Marcum..our entire bullpen. So...that doesn't make sense on any level.

I don't know why Aoki should be traded. He may not be young but he's very affordable. Yeah, I can't even begin to fathom why Aoki would be someone we'd trade at this point. He hasn't proven enough yet, he's been an extremely valuable player for us and we have control of him for 2 1/2 more years. Hell, he's a player I'd rather add a year or two on than dump at this point. he's given us the best at bats on the team or anyone?

And they swept the Dodgers on the road where they had previously only lost a total of 5 games? Not to mention without the backend of our all-star pen blowing up, we could have easily swept the Royals and our starting pitching is pitching exceptionally well. So a 9 game streak in the first half of the season is going to make your decision? What if we're not offered what we all want for Greinke? What if we're not even over Olt from the Rangers, much less Profar? Which as I've said before, I don't think the Rangers would trade Greinke and dAxfor to part with profar. I would like to think after an NLCS appearance last season that a mere playoff spot isn't what we are shooting for anymore. I'd prefer not to mortgage our future by hanging onto Greinke, Marcum, Hart, and others just to lose a one game "playoff". Yeah, and did the Cards "mortgage," their future last year with their trade deadline trades? This whole "mortgage the future" stuff is just a cliche now. It has no meaning. If we ever mortgaged anything it was when we traded Lawrie, Ordoizzi, Escobar and to a lesser degree, Cain and Jeffress. Nobody's saying trade Thornburg for a 1 year rental, so lets chill on the mortgaging of anything. Agreed. I also find it dumbfounding to definitively say we have "no answers" for the IF with our young players. Gamel isn't a potential answer at 1st? You were pretty high on his bandwagon? Gennett isn't an answer at 2nd in 3 years(at least as we have Weeks for 2 more after this). Green at 3rd after we have Aram for 2 more after this year? We're a team that can easily spend 110-115 next year so all we need is a SS and we were fine with Gonzalez. It comes down to one thing. Re-signing Greinke. If you can't and you KNOW you can't then it's all over, but if you can, you're just fine. Gennett at 6'0 with the exact same skill sets and production would be a very highly ranked prospect. Green has played exceptionally well in the minors and is getting his feet wet. I don't think anyone who watched Gamel play 1st this year didn't think he was a viable candidate. I just can't fathom what the Rockies would have done when they made a big come back, the Philles over the Braves, the Cards last year, all in much worse shape than us. As for the question what are we going to do when we get there? I don't know, haven't polished off the crystal ball yet, but what I DO know is that this team is built to win close games moreso than last years team and I think a fantastic recipe to win in the post-season, IF they simply play to their ability level. Aoki has been a revelation. Hart could and I think will improve a little, but he's still on pace for over 30 HR's. Aram is heating up hitting almost .260 already after being down near .200. Lucroy who's hitting nearly .350 is due back before the break and our backup's, namely Maldonado. Braun is Braun Gomez is a much improved player, and willl be only better when his hammy gets better. So we need a serviceable SS, and MAYBE a solid arm out of the pen. Not mortgaging the future. And to the comment that we could lose Greinke and Marcum and get "nothing," for them if they leave, well, how about 4 draft picks that could be as high as #11 in the draft? It's amazing how this board spouts "small sample size, small sample size," over and over, and rightfully so, yet they cite a bad small sample size when it suits them. Weeks certainly looks better. A rotation of Greinke/Yo/Marcum/Wolf/Fiers(who I still maintain could put together a poor mans '92 Eldred' down the stretch) that's a staff that's as good as just about any staff I've ever seen and better than last year with Yo pitching better, and Fiers pitching better than Narveson. The pen I think you throw Peralta and Thornburg in there the last 2 months of the season, or you trade for a loogy. Not talking about "mortgaging," anything. Not to mention Greinke's main agenda is to be on a winning team. If we can manage to get into the playoffs this year with a clearly improving farm systeme, arms on the way and some impact bats, he's a lot more likely to hang around and re-sign. There by doing the opposite of mortgaging our future. Weeks has been looking like Weeks again recently. Through our a lineup of Aoki Lucroy Braun Aram Weeks Hart Gomez(who's undeniably improved, though that was almost impossible being 26) and Morgan manning center. Ransom/Izturis...whoever maybe we make a trade for Clint Barmes this year as he's bound to pick it up as well. The same calls to sell last year when we were merely a couple weeks behind our ascent are being made this year. We're missing a guy who should hit .300+ this year, we've got an all start 2nd basemen hitting .155 coming into this past series and is finally looking better and almost certainly will pick it up. Braun is having an MVP year. Veras/K-Rod and AX have struggled at times, but they're still three very good relievers. And yes, adambr, you have been on the selling bandwagon all year. Which is fine to speculate, but it's really all you've done. If you look at the rental trades we've made in the past, they have been very good trades. Save for Lawrie, we've made very good trades in-season and have given up very little. I think it's important that we try and add a good-solid SS for the second half and if we play together, play team ball and we're still as talented as any team in the NLC and NLW. One week where we reel off a 6-1 run and we'er right back int he mix. If we go the other way, trade and maximize all the talent you can. But we're not there yet.

So what? That doesn't mean that you trade player who's put up 9.2 WAR in 2 of his last 3 seasons because he's struggled a little bit. Especially when you'll get nothing for him, and he's a huge clubhouse presence. Maybe if we just gave up on the season, which would be beyond ridiculous at this point in the season given the way things have played out in recent years with teams overcoming several slow starts only to make it to the playoffs and advance in them. I said when Fiers made his first start, if he can provide a Cal Eldred circa 1992 type performance since it'll be the first time the league is seeing him, type performance, the Brewers are still in the thick of this race. What's it really going to take for us to get back into it? We're not that far out. 5 games. Weeks isn't likely to hit .160 all year, Lucroy will be coming back, Fiers has been outstanding and Wolf has come around giving us the starting pitching we've had in the past. Our lineup is significantly better with Aoki in RF, Hart at 1st, Lucroy in there, Weeks being Weeks, and Aram is already starting to hit the ball well again. Plus I do believe that our BP is going to improve drastically. Axford is a star closer, K-Rod is an elite SU man, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a guy like Thornburg brought up to help the pen out and keep his innings down as the year goes on. People have short memories. As long as we're a good week away from being atop the WC standings and have Greinke, Gallardo, Marcum, Wolf throwing better and Fiers as our X factor, we've got a very real chance. Everything just about has gone wrong for this team thus far. Look at the Cards and Rockies as recent examples teams that started off far worse than we have. I'd give this team one month to see where they're at. If they're within 3 or so and playing good baseball they'll likely look to add. If they're still struggling, everyone should be on the block within reason.

I get the former obsession...though his numbers are helped out BIG TIME by the Green Monster. And I'd get it if they wanted to dump him with Middlebrooks, Agon and Ortiz and we could grab him for 4-5 million NEXT season. Certainly not for a for a plauer of Weeeks caliber and 23 or so million per year.

How is there a 1B problem right now? Aoki is a must play everyday just about right now. He's a .300 hitter who can draw walks, and plays exceptional RF defense and solid CF defense. In Center we've got Gomez and Morgan. I prefer Gomez as I think he's in the midst of a breakout year this season as I believe he's changed the way he's approaching AB's making him a valuable enough player to play most days and Morgan who's a good player as a platoon mate, and then Hart plays first. You have a 6'6 target with athletic ability playin over there. And moving forward you still have Gamel who we've seen enough from IMO this year to feel confidence that he can be a long term solution at 1st, and Hart moves back to RF, Aoki plays CF and you cut 5-6 million by cutting Gogo and Morgan, or at least 3 or so million and just bring up Logan Schafer to platoon with Gomez. Either way, I see no problem at 1st base right now and I think the only possible saving grace for this team is that you trot Hart out at 1st, Aoki in RF and hope that Weeks puts together a .285/365 15HR second half..which is entirely possible. He's showing some signs of life. Youk would have been a great guy to have, and I'd take him right now even as I think he could bounce back and be a part time player at 3rd and 1st playing 3 days a week...but for Weeks? Nah. Though I MUST say the "Weeks blows," argument is very compelling and I can only think is that of a fan who's really spent a long time around the game and has NEVER seen a player, an all star player get off to a horrible start. Right now, despite playing good defense(just using the eye test, he's been solid) and who's still, STILL getting on base at a .300+ clip during by far the worst stretch of his career. In fact, that's one of the most obnoxious things to me. This player(Fill in blank) sucks because he's struggling. Take a little looksie at his recent history. Anyway, we've got Gamel for the future and we've got Hart for this year and Gamel moving forward, both of whom I prefer to Youk who's sliding bad. So I'd rather just stick with Hart and re-sign him, move him to RF, or let him walk and play Gamel at 1st. Again, anyone watching Gamel this year saw a guy who was very capable and who is generally a slow starter. I still believe Gamel comes back next years, seizes the 1B job, and puts up a 3.5 or so WAR. Either way...no need for 1B IMO in the immediate future. Gamel's one unlucky knee injury away from being a huge part of our lineup and he'll be entering his prime years cheap.

I absolutly loved the Jeremy Jeffress pick when we made it. He posted an 135.00 ERA on the evening. Funny how often people love the picks that work out and hated the ones who didn't. I know one in particular that had written off Jungman as another Jimmy Nelson last year. But I'm with you. I loved a guy who could throw 100 MPH and was a great athlete. The pot smoking never bothered me either. I wasn't fan of the Lawrie pick(which is ironic as I think it'll go down as the worst trade we've ever made in about 10-15 years and DO believe he will have peak years as good as Braun's. I also loved the Fredrickson pick, Lintz...Gwynn... I don't get Jeffress though. He seemed ready to go as at least a 7th inning guy several weeks ago.

Well, I always forget how long it is, 30 days or 45 maybe...but you can't just stash him on the DL all year long. I think his arm is so valuable that you simply put him on DL to start next season, leave him down in instructional as LONG as possible, until he's absolutely 100 pct ready, have him throw and get his arm strength back there, and then next year in July or so send him on a rehab assignment. Use him as a reliever as he's basically Ben Sheets with very poor command at this point, so he can't start, but he could work out his issues with walks and if he can come back to where he was, even add a MPH, I could see him sitting at 96-97 as a reliever(most likely 94-95) and be able to drop that hammer on ya at any time. He still has the upside of a very good reliever and we've come this far with him, we might as well see what he has.

No I really don't.

So, knowing how the Brewers tend to develop players, knowing that Reed hit poorly at AZ last year (in a bigger sample size than Brevard so far), knowing that the scouting reports on Reed are going to trump a few ABs, that is why I think its a given. And what is that sample size? A larger, yet still small sample size? One is 14 games one is 9. I'll say this, so long as he's getting playing time and performing well, I'm not too concerned, but if he can go to Wisconsin and hit .300/.350/.450 while playing good defense, that's a lot better than a .365/.465/.600 in Helena. Toolsy CF'ers are almost like flame throwing young pitchers. You can get a whole lot of them in your system, but many are going to fall by the wayside. It's a little different with corner bats, catchers, corner OF'ers...etc... It takes everything to go just right(catcher's the same, but to get a 5 tool catcher is far more rare, so that's why they're a little different). So I don't care where he goes as long as he progresses. We have GOT to get lucky with 5-6 home grown guys. Simple as that. Not Parra "lucky," I'm talking about we need a ace, a #3, a couple of legit .860 bats, another 30 HR bat(the last two would likely match up). Unless we sign Greinke...then the room for error is significantly wider. The hole in the information that we don't really know is the scouting reports. Does the guy have a hole in his swing that the A+ pitchers haven't exploited (yet)? Maybe not and he sticks around A+ ball or is only demoted to A ball. That would be great. But I would say the chances are low of that, IMO. He's 20 years old and we payed well over slot to pick him in the 5th round last year. For one, he is 19 (turns 20 in Nov). So, he would be pretty young for the typical A-baller. Not that age is important, but the Brewers do tend to take it slower with their HS draft picks in rookie ball and jump their college draft picks faster. Not saying its write or wrong, just using the Brewer's norm to guess where Reed will end up. Well, that's just it. Is he a straight fastball hitter? Would he be hitting cleanup for the Indians in Major League? I don't know, didn't watch him play. I'm simply saying if he's performing, I don't want to see the Brewers demote him to rookie ball because that's "what they normally do." Sometimes guys will surprise you. I wish to hell D'Vo would have been promoted to AA so he could have gotten out of that hitters hell and maybe he'd feel better about his big league career. Side Note-It's amazing to me to see a guy with Andrew McCutchen type talent just give it up to coach Football. Hell, you're an athlete. At least try WR in the NFL is you love football so much. Unless there is something he's not telling us. And his talent is much like Thornburg has Lincecum type talent, they're merely similar and long shots to reach it, but they could still be very good players. I don't think anyone EXPECTS anything like that of D'vo, but he sure as hell could be...he's got every tool you want in a CF'er and seemed like a really well spoken, down to earth, humble, good guy. The Mike Cameron type that you'd love to have on your team. It's too bad. For as last as he started, I'd have said it was 70/30 he at least saw big league action at some point.

Seems a little unlikely we can pull in all 3 for 448K and change.

Yeah, they've had such smooth sailing with their signees, there should be money there for Farmer. I'm not sure if the Brewers just did that good of a job talking to all these guys before the draft to ensure they'd sign for what they ended up signing for or if they went safe. But if they can wrap up Magnifico, Rivera and Farmer, I'll be pretty happy with this class. In Magnifico you have a guy who could be a dominant closer if he can just refine his slider(plus you know he'll tat least thrown a change). Rivera is a guy that scouts thought could go as high as 3rd round and who has exceptional tools, and then obviously Farmer. That's two more guys with 3rd round grades and a 3rd who is just a huge wild card. There is a lot of room to miss if you're throwing the ball 103 MPH! And ANY pitch he can get over to change speeds will make it that much tougher. Hell, even if he's not a closer, he could still be a valuable arm and could be one fairly quickly. Imagine a BP of Axford, Manzanillo, Magnifico, Parra, Heckathorn, Wooten and Estrada or another long man. Could have soeme gas in that pen. Rogers hopefully could figure prominently in there as well.

I thought that Jungman said just the exact opposite. That he was excited to get going. Do I have that backwards?

At this point, I'd just like the Brewers to keep Kottaras as a 1B/C/Bench Thunder, with Luc & Maldonado as the two main catchers. I realize 'the league' will get 'a book' on Maldonado before long, but what I've seen of him at the plate so far looks good. Yes, he's still learning, but I believe there's talent there, or at least backup big-league catcher talent. Not to mention his defense. He'll be really affordable through 2015 or so, and I think he'd look really nice teamed up with Lucroy. IT's tough to get too much of a "book," on a guy who can get around on a good fastball and who can lay off the off-speed stuff. Or at least get a piece of it and fight it off. I don't think there should be any question, and I wanted him to be the back up last year. He's a great defensive catcher and he's got very good bat speed and can turn around a 95 MPH fastball in a HURRY. There's also the issue of Kottaras not being able to catch. Someone asked how he can catch when he can hardly walk, but he can hardly catch when healthy. He's a terrible defensive catcher.

Can someone please answer two questions for me? A-How is the the "type of player who doesn't age well?" He's exactly the type of player that "ages well," based on his stats. What type of player OTHER than a very large, extremely strong man with great OB skills and power has a skill set that ages better? Those players are the most likely to continue to produce well as they age. B-Taking steroids out of the equation; How many players haven't made the HOF with 500, which at this point is almost a lock for Dunn? I'll also once again give Ender a chance to explain how we're braindead and explain how his numbers have continued to drop the last 5 years when it be difficult to find a player who's numbers have been MORE consistent? '11 was obviously terrible, but every other season was outstanding, and he's on pace for almost 60 bombs this year. In fact, when it's come to hitting a lot of HR's and posting a high OPS, he's been extraordinarily consistent. I'll guess he ends up with about 575 HR's and he will get in. Though I don't believe he should.

So you don't care that Gantner contributed significantly more outs, just that they didn't happen as a result of a strikeout? And Gantner was a good defensive player. But he had ONE season with a WAR above 3.0. Weeks at 29 already has 3 in the last 5 years, and was well on his way to his 4th when he played 37 games with a 1.4 and had a .365 wOBA. A number he's approached or equaled 4 times. Gantner's career BEST was .322. Career wise it's .301 vs .345 in favor of Weeks. He was simply just a superior player without any question and if not for a terrible 2 month long struggle where he's STILL managed to maintain an OBP only .17 below Gantner's career line of .317. So Gantner was a terrible offensive player and a solid defender. Not close to Weeks. If you want to put Molitor and Money at 2nd and 3rd, then fine. But not in favor of Gantner. With regard to Hamilton vs Thomas, Thomas had a WAR of 22 from 78 to 82 for the Brewers. Hamilton's career WAR for the Brewers was 11.1. Not much of a discussion for me. Not when Brady Clark is only one season away from matching Hamilton in 2 fewer years(about 4.0 WAR), or when Gomez and Morgan put up over half that in one season of a platoon in CF. I don't see a CF'er that's been that close to Thomas other than Yount, though..again, SS(and Yount was really a terrible defensive CF'er).

Why not? I never understood why people thought Thomas was good, I do like Oglivie though. He was a CF'er with a wOBA of .341, hit 45, 38, 21(strike year), 39 and 22 WAR from '78 to '82, the Brewers heyday. I don't know what CF'er the Brewers have ever had that has matched that if you're going to use Yount at SS.

I certainly wouldn't take Jenkins over either of those two. Hart's a lot closer, but I'd still stand behind those two. I think Greinke should be in the rotation. I wouldn't put Vook in there just because he won a Cy Yong. He won a Cy Young because he was on the best team and won a lot of games. At closer, it absolutely has to be Fingers. The Brewers have had 4 MVP seasons now, two by Yount, Braun and then Fingers. That's impressive. And I have to go with Rickie Weeks. Aside from Weeks being a great guy and Gantner being literally one of the most arrogant and obnoxious human beings I've ever encountered, Gantner was just an overrated player. Weeks is about 6 WAR behind Gantner for his career. I'm pretty sure at 29, even as much as he's struggling, he'll easily surpass him. Plus a career .301 wOBA vs Weeks .346. I don't think they really compare unless you put too much on this season, a season in which he's had two bad weeks. So obviously Molitor was an omission, Prince was a brain fart..unless he doesn't qualify because he played so few games there. And I'm not sure about CC, but Greinke is on my list somewhere, and I hope he ends up a clear cut #1 after re-signing! Then it'll be Greinke/Tedd/Sheeter/