Warning Track Power

I don't understand why the Dodgers aren't making this move. Stanton's rumored #1 choice is Los Angeles and the Dodgers have the $$ and the prospects to do the deal. A trade of Alex Verdugo, Yadier Alvarez, Brandon McCarthy ($11.5m salary expires after 2018), and Hyun-Jin Ryu ($7.8m salary expires after 2018) makes all the sense in the world for them. Dodgers have an outstanding OF of Stanton-Taylor-Puig with Pederson as the fourth. Dodgers can afford to lose Verdugo because he doesn't have a place to play. Marlins get two top prospects and the salary relief while taking on two expiring contracts. If I am a Dodger fan, I want them to make this move yesterday.

Agreed. Getting Iglesias would likely cost a package like or similar to Harrison, Ortiz and Burnes which is WAY more than I am willing to give.

If Stanton, as has been reported, has already said no to a possible Red Sox deal because he wants to be on the west coast, why would he approve a deal to the Yankees? Because New York is further west than Boston? I get really tired of writers like Heyman who think the baseball world ends at the Appalachians.

Was listening to MLB on XM this morning and one of the updates said the Astros are looking to move Mike Fiers prior to the Friday non-tender deadline. https://sports.yahoo.com/report-astros-surely-attempt-trade-024241332.html Not sure if I would have any interest in Fiers, but as a possible #5 innings eater he would be a cheap alternative to the Cobb or Lynn type SP.

My biggest issue with Jake Arrieta is why the Cubs, who at this moment have a rotation of Lester-Hendricks-Quintana-?-?, are supposedly taking a pass at re-signing Arrieta. While this could be Cubs gaming the system and letting Arrieta getting the best offer on the market before matching it, it doesn't feel that way. Their apparent lack of interest in bringing Arrieta back is concerning.

If Brinson is to be moved, then I would prefer to hold him for SP as well which is why I floated the idea of Santana. If the Brewers could somehow package Phillips and Ortiz for Yelich and hold Santana and Brinson as possible pieces for an SP, that would be amazing. A healthy combination of Braun-Brinson-Yelich or Braun-Yelich-Santana could be one of baseball's best in 2018.

I know we have discussed Yelich in multiple threads, but having a dedicated thread to him is appropriate given his apparent availability. I don't know what it is precisely about his profile, but he just seems to be a Stearns-type player. High AVG/OBP whose power numbers would likely jump in Miller Park. If the Brewers were looking to diversify the offense (meaning more contact, less strikeouts) I wonder if the Brewers would explore a Yelich-Domingo Santana trade. Yelich struck out 137 in 695 PA (20% K-rate), whereas Domingo struck out 178 in 607 PA (29% K-rate). Yelich would cost more, whereas Domingo is relatively cheap but is still a 30 HR bat. I would love the Brewers to cut down on the Ks and improve the D at the same time. Additionally, as I mentioned, putting Yelich in Miller Park would likely see an increase to 25-30 HR. I would do this move immediately. I wonder if the Marlins would.

Interesting that Phillips is exactly who I thought of also for a potential Manaea trade. I would absolutely be interested in a Manaea for Phillips. Maybe Ray would be of interest to the A's as well. I think Manaea has mid-rotation potential and would gladly move either or both of those two in a deal for Manaea.

I think the thought process is the idea of salary sheds for cheap inexpensive pieces. While highly unlikely, I could see something like this if a team were willing to take on Chen as well. Why would the Marlins completely de-value one of their best assets by forcing a team to take Chen? If they want to shed salary, they trade Yelich for prospects, who you pay almost nothing to in the minors and the minimum in the majors and if they're not ready sign some crap player for less than a million to fill the slot until the prospect is ready to take over. Stanton? Sure I could see them taking on money to get a better return while still shedding significant salary. Yelich? There's no point in doing that since he makes so little. I agree with you in principle about not devaluing Yelich. If I were them, I would maximize Yelich by trading him alone as well. However, everything you read about the Marlins is they want out from long term deals. If they truly want out from under that Chen contract, 3 years $52 million with a vesting option that could make it 4 years $68 million which takes him through age 35, how else do you do that without attaching him to someone like Yelich? If I were the Marlins, I would approach the Brewers, or a similar team, and say we will give you Yelich and Chen but you have to take on all of Chen's $ and give us a top prospect and a lottery ticket. Yelich and Chen for Brinson and say a Bickford/Ponce/Supak type prospect. The Marlins still get a top 15 prospect and get out from under an albatross contract in Chen. Is that more important than prospect quantity? Yelich alone could fetch the Marlins a better package of say Brinson, Ortiz + type deal but they still have the weight of Chen's deal. What is more important to the Marlins would be fascinating to know.

I tend to feel this way about Villar as well. His D and CS% negate any great role as a super utility. This isn't like tolerating Carlos Gomez early in his career, because his D always played. While I still think his offensive ceiling is higher than Hernan Perez, Perez's defensive versatility puts him as more valuable as the super sub. I would love to include Villar as part of a package for a Yelich, Archer, etc...

I think the thought process is the idea of salary sheds for cheap inexpensive pieces. While highly unlikely, I could see something like this if a team were willing to take on Chen as well.

If the Marlins would do Villar and Broxton for Yelich and Gordon, I would not hang up the phone until the paperwork was done. Yes, the Brewers take on salary, but they also have 2/3 of their OF set for the next 6 years with Yelich and Santana, which also frees you up to deal Brinson or Phillips for pitching. A lineup of: Gordon, Yelich, Braun, Shaw, Santana, Thames, Pina, Arcia is quite good.

Pass. For all the reasons others have mentioned. 1B is nowhere near as big of an issue as other positions. Additionally, with Braun going nowhere, I would rather explore him at 1B before dealing the prospects necessary to acquire Abreu.

Before I look at it, I'm going to predict that they tab the Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees/Red Sox, etc as division winners all primed to win 100 games. And the Cardinals are project for 88 wins... I hate ESPN

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21506599/hot-stove-stock-watch-which-contenders-buy-which-pretenders-sell Talk about a downer of an article for the Brewers. Expecting a 68.9 win team with a 2% chance of making the playoffs. This obviously makes the assumption the 2017 Brewers were full of overachievers and are due for MASSIVE REGRESSION. I just don't see it. Seems like an overly negative article that doesn't account for many of the pro-con arguments we have had regarding a successful 2018 for the Brewers.

2012-2016 Jonathan Lucroy has spoiled us and what our expectations are for catchers.

This is excellent perspective. I enjoyed this synopsis of the OF situation in Milwaukee. If Ray, Harrison, Grisham (Clark), Stokes can be packaged to acquire the young controllable pitching necessary to play with the OF of Braun, Santana, Brinson, Phillips and maybe Broxton (given the amount of team control), you make the move. Excellent post HNW.

I am a very much an optimist and not cynical in the least. Expecting some type of regression from these guys is not pessimism. It's looking at a situation from an unknown perspective. Had you told me Santana and Shaw would both hit .270ish and 30+ HRs at this time last year, I would have called you overly optimistic. Not saying they didn't have it in them, I just had never seen it before. Now that I have seen it, if I see them replicate it in 2018, I will call that their baseline as a ballplayer. I need another full season as a regular to really make an informed decision.

This is an interesting observation. I see this as well and its the opposite for the Packers. Fans of the Packers scream about Ted Thompson never signing FAs and fans of the Brewers scream when Melvin/Attanasio actually signed FAs. It's weird to see fans of both teams respond so differently to these FA signings.

Do you have a source for this? I don't mean that question in a challenging way; I'm just really interested in knowing why Stanton doesn't want to come to StL. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-hot-stove-stanton-reportedly-wont-waive-no-trade-clause-for-cardinals-red-sox/ It was mentioned on MLB Network and MLB Radio last week also. All speculation at this point.

While I am certainly not in on a 4-5 year $20-$25m per contract for Arrieta, I am more for this than dealing the prospects necessary for Archer. Small market teams like the Brewers should be able to deal with a bloated contract much easier than a depleted farm system. If they sign Arrieta and deal a prospect or two like Trent Grisham (Clark) for Jake Odorizzi, I would be happy with a rotation of Arrieta, Anderson, Davies, Odorizzi and Woodruff.

While I don't want to see Giancarlo in St. Louis, I would love to see them completely deplete the top half of their farm system to get a player that MAYBE pushes them past the Brewers without any other moves. Go position by position and rotation and its close even with Stanton on the Cardinals.

+1 +2

I do believe we have some regression candidates in terms of offense. Shaw, Santana, Pina and Arcia are all possible for mild to significant regression based solely on the fact they do not have a proven track record. However, the defense for Shaw, Pina and Arcia still plays and the OF prospect should help cover some Santana regression. Coupling this with a possible bounce back candidate in Villar, hopefully better health and production from Braun, as well as Thames making adjustments in year two, it all could be a wash. I think that any possible regression in terms of record will come mainly due to growing pains of having Brinson and/or Phillips playing daily in MLB for the first time, Woodruff in the rotation from day one and other SPs (Burnes, Ortiz) getting their first taste. I truly believe we really need to see the 2018 season to know exactly where the Brewers are given so many of the players in 2017 had no track record.

Not that the Brewers are players in this sweepstakes, but what would ridiculous from their standpoint look like? I imagine Brinson, Harrison, Hader and Burnes would probably be a starting point for negotiations based on "wildly ridiculous." For Giancarlo, my Brewers offer would be Domingo, Harrison and Ortiz. Take it or leave it.