Oxy
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Everything posted by Oxy
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The Brewers gave up NOTHING to get him last year, and he is still getting paid a good chunk of change. Why would he be worth something now? There is a reason that he didn't opt to go the free agency route in the off-season, so it will be very difficult to trade his current contract and get anything of worth. The Brewers would have to be out of it, and a rich contending club would really need help in the bullpen in order to give up anything of even marginal value.
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The former is decidedly NOT exclusive from the latter, however. If you are going to instill a sense of confidence in your team and players, you actually have to follow though with what you say, sometimes by sticking with guys longer than they deserve (Loe and McGehee). It's not like the Crew clearly had other better options at the time. Once they did (K-Rod and Hairston), Roenicke played they guys he should have. As far as the rest of his in-game decision making, I'll take the fact that the Brewers significantly outplayed their pythagorean record as proof that Roenicke knows what he his doing more often than not. Perhaps he just got lucky, but we won't really know until a few more seasons go by. Kotsay in CF for the playoffs, however, is totally ridiculous and indefensible. I can't figure that one out.
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Protection is only a myth in aggregate. Statistically, when large data sets are used it will all come out in the wash, so it appears to have no effect whatsoever. However, if you actually ask pitchers if they are more careful with some guys because of the hitter that is on deck, they will say absolutely (most of them). So obviously, pitchers will pitch differently depending on the on-deck batter and the situation in the game. The question is whether or not the way that they pitch "differently" in actuality ends up to be a good thing or a bad thing. Sometimes being careful with a guy will work out and sometimes it will bite you in the butt. Sometimes pitching to contact will work out and sometimes it won't. It all depends on the individual match-ups on the field and the situation at the time. There will be times this year when it may actually be better for the Crew that teams pitch around Braun. There will be times when it would absolutely be an advantage if Fielder was on-deck. Hopefully the former happens often enough that Crew frequently end up with more runs than the other guys.
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So, being that Roenicke already is willing to think outside the box with his defensive shifts, why can't Gomez move over to right field whenever a lefty (especially a pull hitter) is up, moving Morgan (or perhaps even Hart) over to center in those situations? Heck, I'd move him over to left and put Braun in center/right whenever a righty pull hitter is up. Why not?
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Well, the easy answer is that surgery fixes something that is broken while steroids artificially enhances something for the short term with possibly life-threatening results in the long term. The risk/benefit scales are far different for each case when it comes to a person's long term health.
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Front Row Amy? -
I propose that Tee Ell Are should also be considered a verboten cuss.
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I think this thread needs to be moved to the Minor League forum. There is no Major League D being played in Milwaukee right now.
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[quote author=rluzinski wrote: [/b] That is just silly. Scientists and engineers make models all the time and none of them quantify every variable. Yep. And the best ones are humble enough to realize this, and understand both the ramifications AND limitations of their findings. Others let their ego get the best of them and ignore certain biases and assumptions that have inevitably entered into their research/models.
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[quote author=SconnieKid wrote: [/b] No, you pretty much got it. But technology and math trumps the hell out of tradition. Just look around you. A hunch doesn't buy you what it once did. That's what all the kids say. Wait 'till you are SconnieMan and then come back to me http://forum.brewerfan.net/images/smilies/wink.gif.
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I am guessing it tells of the dualistic tension between instinct and reason, how some are lost on the side of tradition while others blindly push for progress through technology and mathematics, when in fact the truth lies somewhere in between. Then again, I could be way off, and it's just a veiled attempt to push the Hollywood agenda by casting Jonah Hill alongside Brad Pitt. Or something.
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Would you hold back Greinke for Game 6 now??
Oxy replied to Brewcrewin07's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
This literally makes my head hurt. You want to optimize your chances of winning both games. You are literally causing the chances of winning both to go down SUBSTANTIALLY by limiting the effectiveness of the best pitcher you have going in one of those two days. You just don't use pitchers on short rest. The data on this is not debatable. What you are talking about lowers the EV of winning both by at least 10%. The sole purpose of doing so would be to have an extra game. I agree. However, if you think that a Marcum/Narveson start will be disastrous, while a 3 day rest Gallardo will be decent and a 3 day Wolf will be decent, then you do that instead. Personally, I DON'T think Gallardo/Wolf on 3 days would be better, thus you stick with Marcum/Narvy in game 6, but I at least see how somebody could disagree. -
Isn't this what a manager is supposed to do? Knowing when to go with a player, even though the math suggests it's not the best move. The correct answer is not always the one that the math suggests will be correct. Yes. Exactly. Statisticians will never accept the fact that there are factors that numbers cannot account for, however. And even if they do, they figure that since they themselves are unable to see these factors nobody else can see these factors either (i.e. even managers who have spent their entire lives analyzing and playing the game of baseball). Still, Kotsay should never start in CF :P
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Look what happens when a Brewers fan tries to be gracious.
Oxy replied to gregmag's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
This internet community is unique in that sarcasm is basically not allowed- or made very obvious by blue font when it is used. It's nice because then there can actually be serious discussions. Most other forums that I've been to take the opposite approach and nothing can really be taken seriously. Elsewhere on the internet I just kind of assume that everything is a joke and even if the jokes aren't funny it at least makes those places tolerable if I just assume that all nastiness is tongue-in-cheek. -
Against Jaime Garcia you might be close to right. Against Chris Carpenter you aren't even close to right.
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You aren't going to find what you want, since defensive metrics aren't nearly precise enough to determine something like win probability. This is a case where statistics aren't really of much use since it is a one game scenario with a very interesting pitching matchup of YoGa vs. Carpenter. With FieldFx data it might be easier to predict the odds on how many outs per game a Gomez or Morgan in CF would save vs. Kotsay, but I wouldn't trust anything that is out there right now. Common sense tells me that Gallardo is a fly ball pitcher, so put your best defenders in the OF, at least when your worst OF (Kotsay) is far, far, far inferior to your alternatives.
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I responded in the RR thread already, but I liked the move--or non-move. I don't want to pitch Hawk and Saito on back-to-back days with another game the following day that might be an elimination game. If necessary, sure, but Wolf was throwing great, his pitch count wasn't high, and the Brewers had the lead. I would have been nice if he could have pinch hit Lucroy for Kottaras, but for some reason that is all but impossible to do that and leave Wolf in the game. Now everyone in the bullpen will be available and well rested for the remainder of the series.
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I was one of the few who was in favor of leaving Wolf in there to hit in the 6th. I don't want to use Hawkins and Saito on back-to-back days unless necessary AND if there is an off day the next day. Now Roenicke has his entire bullpen well rested and at his disposal for every game remaining in the series. Wolf was pitching well so why make the move? He is also an excellent bunter and decent contact hitter, so leaving him in to hit with a guy on third and 1 out isn't a big deal either. Say you use both Hawkins and Saito and then lose the game. Now you go into an elimination game with a shaky Greinke and a tired bullpen. Not ideal.
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Would you hold back Greinke for Game 6 now??
Oxy replied to Brewcrewin07's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Don't say he's "due," say he will "regress towards the mean." Statheads will tear apart your "due" assertion but for some reason will respect the proper phrasing. -
http://images.yuku.com/image/jpg/d14263769b8bc08281871f10c0cf93ae9c8768bc_r.jpgI'm Randy Wolf. I solve problems. Never mind this guy to my right.
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Beautiful, Nyjer. 0-2 HBP with a little elbow lean. Playoff move there.
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Kottaras is going deep here.
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What a joke of a HR.
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Let's, go watch the video: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/....jsp?content_id=19888335 Look at where Furcal is when the ball gets by Braun. He deserves just as much criticism for the run scoring. Not to mention, this may have also held Jay at 1st...... You are just trolling now. Was there ever a doubt as to whether Braun should be playing left field last night?
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http://verywellthen.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/pulp-fiction1.jpg
