xisxisxis
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Everything posted by xisxisxis
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It's been pretty clear for a long time that this team doesn't have a long-term plan. Heck I don't think they have a short-term plan. While I am glad to see them attempting to add talent to the organization by getting higher upside prospects that are young for their league age, they still have to be slotted into the Brewers player development pipeline that has some serious issues. The Brewers still have quite a bit of time to mess up these prospects to the point they aren't functional. I was shocked when they gave Parra a $6M contract to begin the year as he isn't that much above replacement level to justify that salary. Parra is what he is, a 4th outfielder whose defense exceeds his offense. He's had a career year offensively this year and the next buyer is going to get some nasty numbers as he regresses to the mean.... But this wouldn't be a Brewer fan board if a significant number of posters didn't overvalue the Brewers talent, you don't have a crappy organization like the brewers without selecting for a certain fan phenotype....
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Brandon Moss to Cardinals for Rob Kaminsky
xisxisxis replied to And That's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
Cardinal fans are pretty pissed about this...... They'll get over it when they make the world series this year... -
From the above linked article: "Attanasio's son Mike, an MIT graduate, has been involved in the Brewers' evolving analytics department, providing a hint the club will follow that trend." That is, sincerely, the most encouraging thing I've read about the Brewers this season. So what's encouraging? The fact that Attanasio's son is involved or that the brewers actually have an analytics department? If Mike has helped his dad so far, I think we need 2 less Attanasio's involved with the Brewers and how is the analytics department "evolving"? Is it evolving like the green mass on the top of my 3 month old sour cream is evolving? Is it going from single cell to multicellular organisms like Doug Melvin? Or has it evolved into a thinking, communicating, multicellular organism that learns from it's mistakes and the mistakes of others? I really like the MIT grads who can get full time jobs in companies where their relatives don't own a piece of the pie..... Not so much those that use nepotism to get their gig....
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What are people's thoughts on him? While I would love to bring in a younger, statistical-oriented GM, his transaction success doesn't stick out like Freidman or even Daniels. If/when Melvin retires or moves up the chain of command, is he someone you would target? He is the worst GM in the majors. Makes Melvin look like a brainiac.... His FA signings are horrible. His trades are horrible and talent evaluation is exceeded by 95% of the yahoo fantasy baseball GMs. Paul Depodesta should get another shot at GM before Dipoto gets another interview in baseball. Are we sure the Brewers aren't already statistically orientated? If they do then they keep dividing by 1 over each of their metrics....
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Why has he failed? Do I really need to point out that he came up with the Marlins (strike one), then got jettisoned to MLB's version of Siberia (Houston) for three seasons. Now, Houston is turning it around, but they were a dumpster fire in the NL, and the entire coaching staff was awful. How the hell is a kid, who has already been moved once at age 21, going to develop? And now that Houston has turned things around he's landed in the dumpster fire that is the Milwaukee Brewers. I am sure he's doing cartwheels now that he is with an organization that has consistently developed elite talent... Not! Houston coaches were so bad? Welcome to Milwaukee where you get benched if you're not aggressive enough swinging at the first pitch whether it bounces to the plateau not, running from 1st to third if the ball is hit anywhere even if you are thrown out by 40 steps and being the first to the body wash in the showers... Yeah he's dropped into the Ivy League of player development and coaching and he'll blossom within no time... Strike three.
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Speaking of the Pirates, who thought Francisco Liriano was washed up after his 2011 and 2012 seasons? Apparently everyone, as the Pirates signed him for $1M. That's why you don't give up on Garza after 1/3rd of a bad season. Funny I thought it was you didn't give big money to Matt Garza when you could get the same production for $1M a year...
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Melvin has won exactly 3 games less than you would have expected based on the Brewers' 2015 revenues. 1) You need to take yearly revenues and compare it to each years record and then sum across to be the most accurate. 2) So based on your numbers anybody could have been GM in those 12 years and basically got the same record. Or is the conclusion that Melvin isn't a complete waste of space because he didn't do worse than revenue alone would indicate? funny in my entire career I've never had a yearly review where I was asked if I was better at my job than just flipping a coin. Because that's what dougie is. He's billions of coin tosses to get you to a 50:50 ratio of heads and tails. He isn't adding any intelligence to the job he's just been nothing more than a statistical validation of randomness and chance. If you think the hiring process is random and who applies is random then you will possibly end up with a worse GM or a better GM. Now if the people in charge were smart and knew how to identify talent then maybe we could be an Oakland, or St. Louis or Atlanta by hiring a good GM, but unfortunately I don't see that level of intelligence in the Brewers ownership so we are probably better off sticking with Melvin and waiting for chance to get us another playoff team and a first round exit...
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If it turns out to be true, you have to think loss of draft picks, a sizable fine, and banning of employees are on the table. If ownership is involved a Steinbrenner level suspension is in order. If it was truly only the Cards checking to make sure Luhnow wasnt using proprietary information/databases that he took with him from the Cardinals I can see the Cards making an argument that would reduce the penalties. The only way to get that information legally is through a lawsuit and discovery. I doubt MLB would encourage teams to sue each other and open up dirty laundry to the public. While the FBI won't consider any circumstances in their investigation, I can see the Cards getting some "sympathy" from MLB leadership, now whether that leads to a lesser penalty who knows as this is clearly going to be a situation of MLB wanting to set a precedent so it could be steep penalties. However, it's not some random hacking between 2 unrelated organizations for the purposes of getting ahead in the draft, player development, etc.
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It would be a nice sign if the Brewers had a database worth hacking, but that means your organization would have proprietary information worth stealing and your GM and his staff would need to know how to run a VPN and login to the team network Some name suggestions if the Brewers setup their own network: Failure30 DontDoThis ABC123
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I stopped reading the article when I saw Ken Rosenthal wrote it.... The chances of injuring yourself driving to the game and home is vastly greater than the chance of being injured at a baseball game so until theres a major cry to improve and expand mass transit why should there be a rush to implement any changes at the ballpark. Just live with the infinitesimally small chance that a sheared bat or foul ball will hit you... Dont forget to where your protective helmet when you do go to the game to protect from an asteroid that may land on your head and kill you....
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Braun is having his thumb worked on again
xisxisxis replied to ewitkows's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The Brewers need to have a strong farm system, but when you get a Prince Fielder, Jon Lucroy, or Ryan Braun, nothing can be more dispiriting for fans than to know that after 5-6 years, that star player's gonna either be traded or leave as a free agent. How about having the major league team with the worst record, a minor league farm system still ranked at or near the bottom and the same idiots in charge? That is more dispiriting to me than not being able to keep all-stars into their free agent years. -
and rushed our best pitching prospect up the ladder so fast it cost him his career. The only person to blame for that is Nick Neugebauer. He knew he had an injury, but kept it from the team because he didn't want to delay getting to the majors. One injury lead to many that lead to a shoulder that was completely messed up. I don't see how anyone can lay that at Taylor's feet.... Outside OAK he's darn near achieved sabermetric sainthood, but he's not always the best GM in the world, either. Would you trade Melvin for Beane straight up? I would without even thinking about it. There's about 10 GMs I would do the same. There's another 5-10 where I would think about it, but probably say yes. There's another 5 where it would be churn and finally 5 who are worse and I would say no. So that puts Melvin in the bottom 20%, just like the Brewers farm system and just like the Brewers. So after 12 years of Melvin we are worse off than when he came... That's one pretty crappy record.
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So the last time the Selig family/Bud has been an active participant in Milwaukee baseball was in 2002 as owners and 2015 with the Selig Experience? Maybe the Selig curse is real......
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Somebody please....talk me down. Please tell me that I'm overreacting, and that despite all this talent we've given away, we're going to turn this organization around. Mark Attanasio won't let this continue to go on much longer, will he? Unfortunately, Attanasio is the head of the problem, Melvin and the rest of the goons are the body of the problem. Cry. I love this team. I've been loyal to the Brewers for 37 years. But my patience is wearing thin. My patience is gone. I have already walked away from the Brewers, but here is my take on what needs to be done: 1) The next GM has to be straight up with MA and tell him that he is part of the problem. An owner who thinks he knows more about player evaluation & development than his GM is one of the following: A. An egomaniac that a good GM wouldn’t want to work for; B. Mistaken and Naïve who needs to be taught that the GM runs the baseball operations and the owner takes the credit; C. If the owner is more qualified than the GM then the owner hired the wrong GM in the first place. If I was being interviewed for the GM job I would hand the owner a signed resignation letter that he can date and record when he wants to and I would tell the owner that this is the letter he would receive from me the minute I heard he had a conversation with a players agent before I had given an OK from me to talk to said agent. Yeah MA you would have to go cold turkey on Boras, but he really doesn’t think you are cool and he only talks to you because you are so in need of being a part of the in-crowd in baseball that you will be a sycophant to an agent…. I am sure that MA won’t get a candidate who is honest with him because most candidates who aren’t honest don’t have any options so they will just keep their mouth shut and flatter MA so they will be hired. When MA goes over their head they can just grab their ankles and enjoy the ride. Step 1: the GM is the GM and the owner is not and each is accountable as such. 2) Talent identification and development is the most significant goal, purpose and objective of any professional sports team. Those people who are hired to take on that role for the brewers will be reviewed regularly and any individuals who are making it will be let go (whether that is the GM or the northern territory of outer Mongolia chief scout…). Again, as the hypothetical next GM candidate I would ask to get all documents, videos, etc. of the ranking and evaluation that the current organization staff has done over the years to review. If the job that these individuals has done is good then they will be offered a position in the new organization, if not then goodbye and don’t let the door hit you on the way out. This process is not unlike what you have done here Stache, but it needs to be comprehensive and there needs to be a set of criteria. Regional scouts rank the players in their area. If players they have ranked high fail and players ranked lower succeed then they won’t score well. If scouts are consistently ranking players who succeed lower than those that fail then that scout needs to be working for the Cardinals, Cubs, Pirates or Reds and not the Brewers… You can’t be successful in baseball with a small market if you don’t identify good and remove poor talent evaluators. Step 2: Complete review of personnel responsible for player evaluation and routine (yearly) reviews put into place to identify and retain those scouts who are good and remove those who are not good. 3) Install an organizational philosopy and stick to it or at least make sure everyone is on board. The first step is to ask everyone in the organization how they would fix the players on the big league club who are underperforming. For batters, if the response is that they aren’t aggressive enough then terminate that employee immediately. A successful organization doesn’t need someone who thinks so little about a topic so critical to the team that their idea of success is be more aggressive. The same question and response can apply to base running. If I was the hypothetical GM candidate I would insist on starting all players in the organization with a series of meetings discussing the importance of an out in baseball. Position players need to know how important not making an out is and pitchers need to know how important it is to maximize the ways to make an out. Use high tech charts including *gasp* numbers to illustrate the point. Step 3: Put into place an organizational philosophy to stress the importance of outs and how batters, pitchers, fielders, and base runners maximize their roles. 4) I would also hire people in the player development side that can identify players weaknesses and strengths then put into place a plan to maximize their strengths and minimize their weaknesses. I see too often situations where leaders want a certain type of person and try to fit everyone into that mold when they really don’t fit and not playing to those peoples strengths leading in the end to a frustrated manager and employee. Not every 1B will mash tons of home runs and not every SS will be a stolen base wizard. Hitting and pitching instructors will be evaluated on their ability to be flexible with players and to have an eye for identifying strengths/weaknesses. Of course you will miss on players, but how come the brewers miss so bad on pitchers that they don’t even have competent relievers out of the pile of disappointment. Many other organizations fill there bullpens with young, competent relievers while the brewers can’t even find that. Part of it is talent evaluation and part of it is player development. Step 4: revamp player development. 5) Add a sabermetric component to organizational talent evaluation & identification. There are a ton of fundamentals of advanced metrics that are clearly not known or understood by this organization from the value/harm of walks to giving up outs on the basepaths to sacrificing runners over to taking pitches. A successful organization that says OBP is important also PRACTICES that OBP is important, on the other hand the Brewers don’t …. Step 5: Put into place and practice sabermetric player analysis. 6) Define a dollar value per win and use that for guidelines in evaluating trades, signings and player contracts. If you want to spend $1.2M per win and player X (lets say Broxton) will cost $8M and give you about 3 wins then you would clearly not spend the $8M….. While this is really part of sabermetrics, it also needs to be a part of the evaluation process when acquiring talent. It also is important in evaluating the lost value of trading prospects for veterans and understanding not only short term costs but long term costs. There is nothing wrong with trading prospects for veterans if it puts you over the top (i.e. a world series), but if it gets you to the playoffs and you don’t advance then you may have given too much of the future to secure a mediocre present . I certainly wouldn’t ever encourage trading a minimum wage slightly above replacement level SS to obtain the worst player in baseball (waiving at you Dougie and Batter nine u sucky…) Step 6: Use value of a win to help guide decisions. 7) Maximize talent in the organization across all levels. Draft for impact and best player available in the draft. If it means you just picked up your 5th straight shortstop in the 5th round of the draft then you do it, if every shortstop was the best available player. Don’t waste player value by holding onto them till free agency and you have no hope of signing them to a cost effective extension. In my model of organization building if you can’t sign a stud player to a market value or better extension by the end of their 4th season then trade them and add talent in return. If on the rare occasion that the planets align and you are favorites to go to the World Series with that player and not likely without then you would trade the future value for the shot to go and keep him. Step 7: draft/acquire impact/best available player talent. (once you have a scouting/player evaluation group you trust or hasn’t been convicted of malpractice). 8) Evaluate every employee who has a direct role in player evaluation & development at least once a year if not twice (beginning and end of year). This includes the manager. While some people think that the manager doesn’t matter they are wrong. The manager matters, the team doctor matters, the weight/conditioning coach matters, but there value and importance is much less than the player’s talent matters. However, that doesn’t mean you ignore these positions. If a really great manager is worth 2 wins and a really horrible manager is worth -2 wins then overall it won’t matter with the current team if you have the -2 manager (RR) or a 0 wins manager (CC) or a top flight manager, but if you are really trying to contend or make it to the world series that 4 game swing of going from a bad manager (RR) to a good manager may be the difference of winning a WC round game and losing in the Divisional playoff instead of making it to the World Series. Getting to 81 wins can be done with a baseball prospectus or with another handbook to predict OPS/WINS/etc. The hardest part is getting from 81 wins to 90+ where you need a lot to go right at every decision. The problem with the Brewers is that they spent a lot of value to get to 85+ wins, got lucky once to get 90+, but mostly have failed to get past the 81 win mark consistently. Having Doug Melvin as Stache has pointed out is a handicap and having the guys he picks as manager and for coaches doesn’t help it only hurts. The current organization that I work for is going through a crisis because we went from a leadership group that believed in hiring people that were smarter than them to a new wave of leadership that hire people dumber than them because they are insecure. We now have layers upon layers of idiots and we are failing miserably because we are being led by a bunch of morons…. The one thing that always struck me was that Dougie appears to hire the dumbest managers, except for the one who was smarter than him he canned the fastest…. Step 8: Evaluate everyone yearly and maximize quality at EVERY position. There isn’t an easy solution to the mess the brewers are in when the buck stops at the owner. MA is NOT a part of the solution unless he hires a good GM and then just steps back and lets him do his job. I am not sure MA has it in his DNA to do that. Getting a good GM is hard as there isn’t a school that trains them. The best I can hope for is that MA interviews at least a half dozen candidates and eliminates a few then keeps Doug Melvin on as an advisor to rank the candidates. If he turn the list upside down and negotiates with the “top” candidate then the Brewers may have a chance. The current Brewers organization reminds me a bit of the 1970s and 1980s Packers in that they had horrible leadership. The Packers solved their problem by going to experts from outside the organization and I think the Brewers need to get someone qualified from outside who will come in and just sweep EVERYTHING out the door. When Dougie was hired he inherited his scouting staff (Jack Z, etc.) and when he brought his people in after Jack left he missed horribly across the board. We are suffering from the incompetence of that period, but to have the same people in place 7 years later smacks of an organization/leadership afraid at reviewing others in the organization in case someone actually says “hey why aren’t we evaluating the boss”…..
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I don't think he looks any smaller, but he clearly is looking more like a young Rodney Dangerfield every day.... http://l3.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/sLRZ7IJHmydVzbnd5umggw--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Zmk9ZmlsbDtoPTIzMDtxPTc1O3c9MzQ1/https://sp.yimg.com/j/assets/i/us/sp/v/mlb_cutout/players_l/20150406/8034.png http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-hwPU3R5sqTM/VDyxC9I5GdI/AAAAAAAAV7M/jgd3sq5or3o/s1600/Screen%2Bshot%2B2014-10-13%2Bat%2B10.12.12%2BPM.png
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Mark A is the reason Yep and as I've stated before, the cash flow associated with a team that always appears to be on the edge of contention and the best baseball fans around makes money for the owners. But at some point the fans aren't going to come out in droves to watch a 5th place team get their butts handed to them by the cubs (whose fans fill Miller ParK for 8-9 games a year) and the only way to maintain the cash flow is to gut the roster (i.e. the salaries). Its almost as if 12 years on, Attanasio is doing a favor for bud and making us forget the Wendy Selig-Prieb years with a run of crapitude and an interfering wanna-be GM owner... Well we aren't there yet, but I see it around the corner.... I thought it was funny when Marky Mark was PRing it after he arrived to save the day a few weeks ago and he mentioned how he ran into Walt Jocketty and was encouraged that Walt thought he had a good team. Wake up Attanaseau, this isn't a country club or a gathering of investment bankers where other members have to compliment your butt ugly daughter, this is a business and if I was competing with you in the business world I surely would be telling you to continue to do stupid things so I have an advantage. Yeah, keep using a large amount of your budget to sign those long-term deals for those vets, that will make your team really competitive... Yeah mark that's a great team you got. Don't let those 70 wins fool you and don't, please I am begging you, don't change direction. Just hang in there, I feel your pain bro... as my team crushes yours on the way to the playoffs and you can stay home and hold no one accountable....
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Why does Doug Melvin still have a job? He's on his 4th manager which is Epic in the ability to continually choose the wrong person and yet still have your job. To go along with crappy choices for running the scouting department, player development, and the water cooler and you have a completely horrible "manager" who still has his job and will continue to have a role in the evolving brewers. Heck Melvin's track record alone would indicate that counsell is a good choice if it would have been Dougie's last choice for manager.....
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Ryan Braun - Worst Contract in Franchise History?
xisxisxis replied to JJHardy7's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
On top of all that offense is down over 20% since his prime. Even if he became the player he used to be it would probably be the tune of a 15-20% drop in stats. Braun's prime years for production and age were 2011 and 2012. Offense is down 5-7% since then and if 2015 remains up then the current year will be roughly 1% lower in total offense compared to 2011 and 2012. Hardly the 15-20% you pulled out of somewhere..... -
Ryan Braun - Worst Contract in Franchise History?
xisxisxis replied to JJHardy7's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
So.. when do we resume the debate about moving Braun back to third base? Wouldn't that be much better to talk about??? If only he was left handed then we could convert him to Catcher..... -
Yes the NL should join the 21st Century and add even more pitcher injury avoidance rules. They can add the DF or designated fielder who runs in front of the pitcher as he is delivering the pitch to field any balls hit at the pitcher. They could also add the DS or the guy who runs out to the mound at the end of an inning and the pitcher hops on his back so he can be carried to the dugout, down the steps and gently put onto the bench to avoid an injuries who is obviously the designated Scherzer. Of course the DS has to be ready to return the pitcher to the mound once the inning is over. Or would the DS be the designated soaper - the guy who takes on the high risk job of getting body wash for pitchers (and players) because we dont want to have any unnecessary injuries now do we......
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RR said he liked what he saw yesterday out of Parra and Schafer. So basically he's saying that he feels those guys give the team a better chance to win right now than Braun. Parra. And Schafer. Schafer. Let that sink in for a bit. Yikes. This team is messed up That is the reason a team managed by RR goes for extended periods of crapitude. His constant playing hunches and micro samples and going against the platoon advantage are a contribution to the struggles, not a solution. When Logan Schafer is an option before Ryan Braun then you shouldnt be managing a major league team (or one that claims to be MLB even if the current lineup resembles AAA).
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How do we turn this sad franchise around?
xisxisxis replied to The stache's topic in Milwaukee Brewers Talk
The Crew didn't even enjoy the good years because he didn't like the way the team was built. So 2 out of the last 30 years.... He must be crushed he missed all those good years....

