Eye Black

Yes, Brett Phillips and possibly some other prospects would have made the top ten, but the voting was limited to players on the Brewers current 40-man roster which is why Phillips wasn't eligible for the list. The list was limited to the 40-man roster for simplicity and to avoid submissions filled with only prospects. It is a valid question though where the cut-off would be on the list for a player that could bring back a prospect to an equivalent talent level of Phillips.

Thanks for everyone that voted in the Brewers Trade Value Top Ten thread. Below are the top ten results tallied from the 15 posters that voted: Brewers Trade Value Top Ten 1) Jonathan Lucroy (140 pts.) 2) Orlando Arcia (120 pts.) 3) Jimmy Nelson (117 pts.) 4) Khris Davis (92 pts.) 5) Will Smith (88 pts.) 6) Ryan Braun (71 pts.) 7) Wily Peralta (46 pts.) 8) Jorge Lopez (39 pts.) 9) Taylor Jungmann (32 pts.) 10) Jeremy Jeffress (30 pts.) Honorable Mentions (tied for 11th): Zach Davies (13 pts.) Domingo Santana (13 pts.) Interestingly the now traded Jean Segura finished 15th with 4 points (four 10th place votes).

Wow, thanks Jim! Did not expect the BA staff to ever lay eyes on that post, but really appreciate their feedback! I am a huge advocate of the BA Prospect Handbook, and for those considering purchasing one I would highly recommend it. For those asking about the BA Grade Scale and Risk Factors, below is the explanation they provide in the Handbook. BA Grade Scale [pre]Grade Hitter Role Pitcher Role Examples 75-80 Franchise Player No.1 Starter Clayton Kershaw, Buster Posey, Mike Trout 65-70 Perennial All-Star No.2 Starter Adrian Gonzalez, Jason Heyward, Jon Lester 60 Occasional All-Star No.2/3 Starter Adam Jones, Jordan Zimmermann, Wade Davis Game's Best Closer 55 First-Division Regular No.3/4 Starter Gio Gonzalez, Todd Frazier, Craig Kimbrel Elite Closer 50 Solid Average Regular No.4 Starter Mike Leake, Koji Uehara, Lucas Duda Elite Set-up Reliever 45 Second-Division Reg. No.5 Starter Luis Valbuena, Luke Hochevar Platoon Set-up Reliever 40 Reserve Swingman Paulo Orlando, Mike Dunn Relief Specialist[/pre] Risk Factors Safe: Has shown realistic ceiling in the big leagues; ready to contribute in 2016. Low: Likely to reach realistic ceiling, certain big league career barring injury. Medium: Still some work to do to turn tools into major league-caliber skills, but fairly polished player. High: Most draft picks in their first seasons, players with plenty of projection left or players whose injury history is worrisome. Extreme: Teenagers in Rookie ball, players with significant injury histories or players whose struggle with a key skill (especially control for pitchers or strikeout rate for hitters) is a significant barrier to them ever reaching their potential.

Had a chance to digest a little more of the Baseball America Prospect Handbook. Since the Handbook was published the Brewers have acquired six players that were listed in other teams top 30 lists: Isan Diaz (Dbacks #9), Garin Cecchini (Red Sox, #30), Trey Supak (Pirates #20), Rymer Liriano (Padres #23), Freddy Peralta (Mariners #15), Daniel Missaki (Mariners #30). They also lost one from their own top 30 list, Tyler Wagner (#19). For the 5th straight year the Handbook included BA Grades which is a number grade that represents a player's ceiling which is also coupled with a player's risk factor to reach the ceiling which ranges from Extreme to Low. According to the introduction they continue to be tougher graders each year. A players ranking within the system isn't just about ceiling since sometimes players with 50 ceilings (or in some cases 45 ceilings) that have low risk factors (i.e. typically means closer to becoming a major league player) are ranked more highly. In some cases even players that are considered top 100 prospects don't receive BA Grades of 55 (i.e. Jose Peraza has a 50 BA Grade, but a low risk factor). I went through each teams top 31 prospects (they include a supplement of each team's 31st prospect). Of those 930 prospects that were ranked in the Handbook, 217 of them received a BA Grade of 55 or higher. Again, that refers to ceiling, and doesn't necessarily represent the best 200 players. Still, its a good way to see the divide between players that Baseball America considers having the ceiling to become first division regulars or mid-rotation starters or better. The examples BA gives for a 55 major leaguer are Todd Frazier, Gio Gonzalez, Craig Kimbrel. Of course of the 217 players I mentioned, some are 60's, some are 65's, a very small handful are 70's (no one grades better than 70). I mentioned 217 prospects had BA Grades of 55 or higher, which averages out to 7.2 per team. I went through and looked at each team while also taking into account players with BA Grades of 55 or higher that were traded since the book went to the publisher (i.e. Dansby Swanson, Aaron Blair, Isan Diaz... and that's just from the Dbacks system). While it is not necessarily vindication that one system is better than another, it would seem that having many high ceiling players is at least a good thing versus not having a system stocked with high ceiling potential. Only five teams had a double digit number of prospects with BA Grades of 55 or higher. The Brewers had the most prospects in their organization with a BA Grade of 55 or higher. Here is the leaderboard: 13 - Brewers 12 - Braves 11 - Astros 10 - Cubs 10 - Mets 9 - Phillies 9 - Rays 9 - Rockies For those interested, here was the bottom five (from least to most): 1 - Angels 3 - Marlins 3 - Dbacks 4 - Orioles 4 - Mariners EDIT/NOTE: See responses from Baseball America staff later in this thread. -- Jim

At the lower levels I would say yes, the Brewers have a good handful of players that have the potential to become future stars. They won't all become stars obviously (or even all become major leaguers), but the system has many young players with high ceilings. The guys with the 55 ceilings aren't just the guys currently rated at the top of the system, in some cases they are teenagers like Marcos Diplan who has the ceiling to be special, but a lot of development to go with high risk against achieving that ceiling. Using a retroactive example, back in 2012 Orlando Arcia was rated as a 55 ceiling by Baseball America, but he was listed as the Brewers #22 prospect (in what was considered a weak system). His ceiling is obviously higher now that he has surpassed expectations, but it is telling that even back when he was 17 years old others were able to identify the potential for a lofty ceiling. While there is certainly a large amount of risk that the younger players won't ever reach their ceilings (and in many cases the variability is so extreme that they also have a low floor), there is a lot of potential payoff to having as many high ceiling players as possible at the lower levels. Sometimes they do turn out to be stars.

A couple of more observations from the Baseball America Prospect Handbook. First, the depth of the system really stands out in the grading system. Now, including the addition of Isan Diaz, the Brewers have 13 players that receive a BA grade (player ceiling) of 55 or higher (55 is considered a first division regular or #3 starter). When I have time I will go through and see how many teams (if any) have more than that, but I promise it isn't very many. For quick comparison the Rangers and Dodgers systems each have eight total players with 55 or higher grades (the Dodgers by the way are the #1 team in the organizational rankings). The Angels system only has one player that has 55 or better ceiling, and it is a 55 with "Extreme" risk. Also noted on the handbook introductory page is that Trey Supak from the Pirates trade, who is listed in the book as the #20 prospect in the Pirates system, is mentioned as slotting in at #30 in the Brewers system. A 10 spot drop in the system rankings just by going from the Pirates to the Brewers. That says a lot about the depth of the Brewers system since the Pirates system is considered pretty good in its own right. Lastly, the handbook does not contain a consensus top-100 ranking (BA will release that later), but each of their top four contributers (Ben Badler, JJ Cooper, Matt Eddy, and John Manual) list their personal top 50. Based on the personal lists, it would appear the BA top 100 prospects might be the most flattering yet regarding the Brewers top prospects. Three of the four have Trent Clark in their personal top 50, and Badler specifically has three Brewers in his overall top 30. High praise for the Brewers, looking forward to the combined BA top prospect list.

Well I guess this one is getting locked down now, but wanted to point out we are entering an exciting new era in the "Transaction Rumors / Proposals" forum where just about any random thread or idea has a chance to actualize.

A couple of notes on Isan Diaz from Baseball America:

Another Diaz scouting video from 2014...

Isan Diaz is the exact type of player the team should continue to fill the organization with. While nothing is guaranteed, obtaining enough guys with the ceiling of a player like Diaz is going to put the odds in the Brewers favor of striking gold often enough. Every interview David Stearns has had recently he mentions that his main objective is to build an organization that has consistent objectives/messages from top to bottom and to assemble a team that wins the World Series. I don't think it's just lip service, for the first time in my Brewers fandom I genuinely think we have the right guy in place to assemble an organization that eventually competes for the World Championship over an extended window.

The Baseball America Prospect Handbook arrived in the mail today, and as always includes the organizational rankings of each team from #1-30. The Brewers organizational rankings over the past five years have been: 2011 - 30th 2012 - 25th 2013 - 22nd 2014 - 29th 2015 - 21st And now the 2016 Brewers organizational ranking (click the "Show" button)....

MLBPipeline.com's Top 100 Prospects Article includes a leader board of total "Prospect Points" using a breakdown by organization of players making their top 100 prospect list. The Brewers rank 8th in total points: [pre]Team Players Points Rangers 5 353 Rockies 6 325 Dodgers 5 319 Red Sox 4 316 Braves 5 302 Twins 6 293 Pirates 5 274 Brewers 5 266 Astros 5 253 Nats 4 249[/pre] Among other NL Central teams just missing the list above, the Cubs had 6 prospects in the top 100, and the Reds had 4 prospects on the list.

Martes would be the most valuable part of the trade. He has very high upside. SRB, you were totally right about Martes. He is showing up in the 45-65 area on BP and MLB prospect rankings. Nice call. Martes has developed into a very good prospect, especially for a guy who was an unknown 18-year old Dominican pitching in Rookie ball that the Astros acquired as a perceived throw-in piece to the Cosart for Moran/Marisnick/comp pick deal. Here is a nice write-up of Francis Martes from Crawfish Boxes.

This reminded me of something I thought about recently. Justus Sheffield has been generating some prospect buzz this off-season. Jim Callis mentioned on Twitter tonight that he was the Indians next closest SP just outside of the top 100. Kodi and Justus are less than two weeks apart in age (will both be 20 in May). Both were left-handed high school pitchers drafted in the first round in 2014. Sheffield is listed at 5-10 according to B-Ref and Medeiros at 6-2. Both pitched this past season in the Midwest League. Based on the statistical comparisons, they each experienced success in different ways. Comparison of the two based purely on last year's stats in the Midwest League: Medeiros: IP- 93.1, Hits- 79, BB- 40, K- 94, HR- 0, ERA- 4.44, FIP- 2.96, WHIP- 1.275, H/9- 7.6, BB/9- 3.9, K/9- 9.1 Sheffield: IP - 127.2, Hits- 135, BB- 38, K- 138, HR- 8, ERA- 3.31, FIP- 2.99, WHIP- 1.355, H/9- 9.5, BB/9- 2.7, K/9- 9.7 Obviously Kodi needs to cut down on the walks moving forward and Justus pitched more innings and was a strikeout machine. Still, beyond the walk differential, Kodi appears to fare better when it comes to allowing hitters to make contact. Kodi gave up zero home runs and held batters well below a hit per inning. While I would expect to see the hit ratio go up some as Kodi throws more balls in the zone, it has been encouraging that guys aren't squaring him up all that well. Both pitchers had what most would consider successful age 19 seasons, but curious at this stage which type of pitcher others think had a better overall season?

Now that Jorge Lopez has made his second consecutive top 100 prospect list this week, Baseball Prospectus (#71) and MLB.com Pipeline (#57), I think a shout-out is in order to molitor fan who started this "Lopez for top 100 prospect" train when his top prospect bandwagon was still small. Glad to see it come to fruition!

My predictions (which will probably look silly in 45 minutes) for the MLB.com Pipeline list would be Arcia somewhere in the 8-15 range. Phillips in the 40-60 range. Hader in the 50-65 range. Lopez in the 65-85 range and Clark somewhere beyond 80. I don't expect anyone else to make the list, but one guy that is going to continue to gain prospect helium heading into the season is Demi Orimoloye.

Per Baseball Think Factory the Baseball Prospectus 101 was released to the public yesterday. Here is the direct link to the PDF of the Baseball Prospectus 101. For those that want to cut straight to the Brewers rankings, click the spoiler...

In general I'm not a huge fan of Bleacher Report slideshows, but this set of Bleacher Report Farm System Rankings from earlier this month includes a top ten for each system which can be helpful when flipping through the various systems. They have the Brewers listed at #18 overall.

Just to clarify on the idea of why some prospects are included on this exercise is two-fold... First, using the 40 man roster as the ranking "pool" was an easy cut-off for who to include and not include. This certainly includes a few prospects, most obviously Arcia. Second, I think including Arcia offers some important perspective. If it helps picture some other top-15 prospect that you believe has similar value to Arcia. Remember, this isn't the future value of these players to the Brewers, it is strictly "how much are they currently worth on the open market"? The way I tried to look at it was not from the Brewers point of view, but from other teams standpoints of which players would be most desirable to acquire. The Lucroy vs. Arcia "trade value" argument serves a couple of purposes. For starters it offers some idea of what we should expect to receive in return for Lucroy. If you believe that Lucroy still has a higher trade value than Arcia, then maybe we should expect a top 15 prospect for Lucroy. If you think Arcia has surpassed Lucroy's value than we probably shouldn't expect that trading Lucroy could acquire a comparable prospect to Arica. Lastly, I think the Lucroy vs. Arcia trade value argument gives some idea of what value baseball teams are placing on current wins vs. future wins. For a team like the Brewers clearly they are playing for future wins, but are the teams trying to assemble competitive rosters now willing to give up the expected future win value of a player like Arcia in order to secure the current wins that Jonathan Lucroy can potentially add?

Good question. I still don't think so as Davis isn't a Stearns type player he's building an organization with. I see Braun as DH with someone like Reed in LF (eventually Trent Clark) given his solid defense/arm, speed, high OBP and contact Well it doesn't sound like the DH is coming any time soon, LINK. Even if it was on the horizon I don't think the Brewers can afford to have potential future DH candidates influence their current decision making process.

Over the Braves? No thanks...hard to compete with all that talent they have at the top of the system. Brewers have a lot of complementing prospects, but I think I would take the Braves system in a heartbeat. System ranking are a total crapshoot though. I think Mayo was alluding to the Brewers moving to the top group of systems, not the very best. He followed it up with a tweet that said, "near the top". Jim Callis had a similar TWEET back in late December:

The Sporting News 2016 Baseball Yearbook is out this week and it include Farm System Rankings by David Rawnsley of Perfect Game. He ranks the Brewers system at #21 among MLB clubs noting "the future is looking brighter." The Braves are ranked #1 and the Angels are #30. Other NL Central rankings include the Pirates at #4, Cardinals at #19, Reds at #20, and Cubs at #23. Other organizational rankings expected out in the near future include Baseball America (via the Prospect Handbook), and MLB.com Pipeline staff (Mayo and Callis) who have hinted on a couple of occasions recently that they will have the Brewers ranked highly when they release their system rankings.

CBS Sports article summarizing the current outfield trade market... OF trade market comes into focus following Upton, Cespedes signings Here is the excerpt most relevant to the Brewers...

Thanks to those participating so far! One note, the reason I did not include Maverick Phillips is because he is not on the 40-man roster. I went back and forth on it, but I figured going beyond the current 40-man roster would muddy the waters a little. Feel free to insert non-40 man roster prospects, but keep in mind for the final tally I am only planning to list rankings of players that are on the 40-man.

With speculation that the Brewers have a number of players that could be traded either before the season or by the trade deadline (including some recent discussion about the possibility of moving Ryan Braun), I wondered how others on this forum would rank the players on the Brewers 40-man roster in terms of overall trade value? The point of this exercise isn't to name the players you most want to see traded or think are most likely to be traded, and it's not even who you believe the best players are, but rather list the players you think are most likely to bring a significant return if traded to another team. Basically at this point in time which Brewers players are the most valuable trade commodities? To participate is easy, just list in order from 1-10 (with #1 being the most valuable) players from the Brewers 40-man roster that you believe would be the team's most valuable trade chips if they were dealt. Since financial commitment and number of controllable years are certainly pertinent, here is a link to the Brewers 40-Man Roster Payroll Obligations. I will leave this open for voting through next Sunday (Jan. 31), and then combine the votes (#1=10 pts, #2=9 pts, #3=8 pts, etc.) to come up with the BF.net cumulative results. Discussion is certainly welcome as well since I am sure we will have some differing opinions on this subject. I personally found this exercise more difficult to complete than I thought it would be, especially in determining the trade value of decent, but not spectacular young contorollable starting pitching. One thing to keep in mind is try to stick to what you think the trade value of a player is currently, instead of projecting what a player could be worth in six month or a year into the future. Also, one last reminder the pool of players consists of only those players on the Brewers 40-Man Roster currently. I could talk myself into jockeying guys around all day (and I am sure will change my mind after hearing others feedback), but I am very curious to see what others on the board think? My current vote for Brewers Trade Value Top Ten is: 1) Jonathan Lucroy 2) Orlando Arcia 3) Will Smith 4) Jimmy Nelson 5) Wily Peralta 6) Khris Davis 7) Ryan Braun 8) Taylor Jungmann 9) Jorge Lopez 10) Jean Segura