Jump to content
Our free agent ranking is up to 100 names, and now you can filter by player position! Click here to check it out! ×
Brewer Fanatic

Eye Black

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    12,459

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    6

 Content Type 

Profiles

Forums

Blogs

Events

Milwaukee Brewers News, Rumors & Analysis

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospect Rankings

Milwaukee Brewers Videos

2022 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Milwaukee Brewers Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Milwaukee Brewers Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2024 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Milwaukee Brewers Players Project

2025 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Milwaukee Brewers Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by Eye Black

  1. Eye Black
    Unless I am missing something (which is certainly possible), I don't think that is accurate. From what I can tell Branyan's OBP was above league average in only three of his 12 seasons (listed below). League average OBP has taken a nose dive in recent years. Carter has exceeded league average OBP in two of his four seasons (also listed below) and never been further than .010 below league average. Here are both players compared to league average OBP in years they had over 150 plate appearances... Russell Branyan 2000 - Age 24 - .327 OBP / league avg OBP .345 2001 - Age 25 - .316 OBP / league avg OBP .332 2002 - Age 26 - .320 OBP / league avg OBP .331 2003 - Age 27 - .322 OBP / league avg OBP .333 2004 - Age 28 - .324 OBP / league avg OBP .335 2005 - Age 29 - .378 OBP / league avg OBP .330 2006 - Age 30 - .327 OBP / league avg OBP .337 2007 - Age 31 - .320 OBP / league avg OBP .336 2008 - Age 32 - .342 OBP / league avg OBP .333 2009 - Age 33 - .349 OBP / league avg OBP .333 2010 - Age 34 - .323 OBP / league avg OBP .325 2011 - Age 35 - .297 OBP (only 146 PAs) / league avg OBP .321 Chris Carter 2012 - Age 25 - .350 OBP / league avg OBP .319 2013 - Age 26 - .320 OBP / league avg OBP .318 2014 - Age 27 - .308 OBP / league avg OBP .314 2015 - Age 28 - .307 OBP / league avg OBP .317
  2. Eye Black
    They aren't the same player. Moss was coming off of multiple seasons with above average OBP prior to last season and has some defensive versatility. WAR has limitations but it is still somewhat telling that Carter has never had a 2 fWAR season, even when he produced 37 HRs While true they are not the same player, I am not convinced that OBP is enough to say one player has value and the other doesn't. Moss holds a career OBP of .322, but since the start of the 2012 season his OBP is .330. So yes, he is certainly above league average over that span. During the same span Carter has hovered right around the league average with a .317 OBP. There is at least one thing Carter has done better than Moss (and most others). In terms of ability to hit the long ball Carter has been one of the best. During the same span noted above (2012-present) Carter is averaging a home run per 15.3 at bats. In 2014 he led all of baseball in that category with a HR in every 13.7 ABs. There is going to be a lot of swing and miss in Carter's bat, but he at least has the potential to hit enough home runs to build some trade value. And even if he doesn't, I am not sure the lost opportunity cost among the current 1B alternatives is all that high.
  3. Eye Black
    Exactly why a trade with them will never happen. Yeah, unfortunately probably going to need a DeLorean and flux capacitor to make that happen.
  4. Eye Black
    Well maybe not often, but at last year's deadline the Cardinals gave up a legitimate prospect to trade for a 31-year old playing RF/1B/DH who had hit 15 homeruns and was batting .217 with a .288 OBP, .695 OPS, and striking out in just over 28% of his plate appearances.
  5. Eye Black
    Teams like the Nationals and Rangers make perfect sense as trade partners for Lucroy. The hang-up with the Nationals would be finding a good fit. I don't think at this point they are going to give up either of their top two prospects (Giolito or Turner) unless it brings back a Jose Fernandez type player. After those two guys their system seems to drop off in terms of impact talent. One team that makes less sense is the Red Sox. Still, I wonder if there is even slight chance the Red Sox would have interest in easing Swihart's development by pairing him with a veteran catcher like Lucroy (who could also slot into the lineup at other positions, 1B or DH, as needed)? Maybe or maybe not, but for the purposes of this hypothetical who would you rather see as the headline piece in a Lucroy deal?... 1) Either Lewis Brinson (Rangers) OR Nomar Mazara (Rangers) 2) Rafael Devers (Red Sox) 3) Either Erick Fedde (Nationals) OR Reynaldo Lopez (Nationals) Certainly a combination of prospects could swing a package in favor of any particular team, but if the players listed above were being offered as a headliner to a Lucroy package I would be hard pressed to pass on Rafael Devers. Both of the Rangers prospects listed are highly thought of, but Devers swing at just 18 (recently turned 19) has the look of something special.
  6. Eye Black
    I would be happy for the Brewers to acquire some young talent in exchange for Khris Davis. Despite the team control and low cost, I am skeptical there is big haul out there for him even after the top FA outfielders sign. I have doubts that other teams are any more sold on him then we are in terms of long term sustainable value. I envision teams offering up a quantity over quality package for Davis. Still, I am going to remain hopeful that he may be able to net a solid prospect or two until proven otherwise. I am not sure when the best possible time to trade him would be, but sooner is probably better than the alternative.
  7. Eye Black
    For me it was every day of the 2011 season. It started with Cactus League Spring Training in 2011 which for the first and only time I was able to attend, along with my father who had just retired and had always dreamed of being able to do. All season I believed the team had a legitimate chance to compete for the World Series. Brewers baseball was the best part of each and every day. The team also clearly had fun together on and off the field, which only added to the enjoyment of watching them all season long. I was also able to attend a game at Miller Park in both the NLDS and NLCS, which was such a special environment. Despite the bitter ending, I will always remember the 2011 season very fondly. EDIT: One single moment that sticks out to me about the 2011 season was a Friday in May when I convinced my now wife to stay through extra innings against the Rockies. We were rewarded by witnessing Prince Fielder hit a come from behind walk-off homerun in the 14th inning in what is still the loudest sound I have ever heard come from a baseball bat hitting ball in my life. Also, the world was predicted to end the next day (via Harold Camping) and that didn't happen either, so all told a pretty great weekend.
  8. Eye Black
    Will never forget "the throw"... http://giant.gfycat.com/GrizzledMisguidedLcont.gif
  9. Eye Black
    Looks like I completely missed that Mass Haas already linked plenty of information from the 20-80 Baseball site in the AFL thread. I am certainly going to keep that site bookmarked moving forward!
  10. Eye Black
    20-80 Baseball scouting report on Josh Hader written by former Baseball Prospectus prospect contributer Jeff Moore. The site launched this month and while there are only around 20 player scouting reports written so far it appears it will develop into a nice resource for prospect evaluation.
  11. Eye Black
    Doug Melvin had a very similar theory that small market teams best chance for success was in short "windows" where they could go for it. I don't believe the goal of the current rebuild is to experience a roller coaster of success and failure over the next couple of decades. In my opinion the goal is to succeed at the elements outlined above by reillymcshane and sustain success over many, many years. As he mentions, using the Cardinals as the model shows its possible. Since 2000 the Cardinals have had only one losing season, with 90 or more wins ten times during that span, and three 100-plus win seasons.
  12. Eye Black
    The Rangers still seem like the frontrunner for a Lucroy deal. I know there will be disappointment if the Brewers don't end up with one of the Rangers top position player prospects, but I would have a tough time turning down a trade offer that included multiple top arms under 22 years old in their system such as Luis Ortiz (20), Yohander Mendez (20), Michael Matuella (21), or Dillon Tate (21). I would take any combination of three of those pitchers for Lucroy. I want the organization to collect and hoard as many potential impact pitching propects as possible.
  13. Eye Black
    Thanks for the links TLB. Here's some additional info on Trey Supak from the 2015 BA Prospect Handbook where he ranked the Pirates #14 prospect (it was written a little over a year ago)...
  14. Eye Black
    Trey Supak is an intriguing pick-up with a 6-5 frame. A 2014 2nd round pick who signed for overslot at $1 million. Per MLB.com he was the Pirates #15 overall prospect.
  15. Eye Black
    I am NOT trying to predict the players involved in the Lind trade will become Johnny Cueto (they almost certainly will not), but thought this was a great example an unheralded international signee that didn't make any top prospect lists until after experiencing success at the A-ball level. Cueto was signed in 2004 for a small signing bonus and pitched in the DSL. The following year, 2005, at age 19 he pitched in Rookie ball. The Reds had what was considered an awful system in 2005 yet heading into 2006 Cueto wasn't on any top prospect lists including John Sickels' Reds organization top 20 prospects and the Reds fan blog, Red's Reporter's organizational top 40 prospects. In 2006 a 20-year old Cueto was very good in A ball and went from nowhere to be considered a top 5 player in the Reds system following the season. Some interesting retrospective accounts...
  16. Eye Black
    I think this post sums it up nicely, and I agree with the point about ceilings. None of us has enough information to determine the ceilings for these players. I don't even think the Brewers know for sure at this point, but I think they have a lot better idea about the players' ceilings than Jonathan Mayo or Keith Law. I tend to believe that no one has better information on these players than the teams. This isn't David Stearns looking up some analytical data and choosing guys that a computer spits out at him. This is a team effort of people that are very good at what they do with excellent scouting resources, and access to proprietary information and statistical data. After the trade was made Stearns admitted there is a lot of variability when acquiring teenagers. But despite the wide range of possible outcomes, he expressed the goal was to find impact pitching. Personally that was music to my ears. If the goal of this trade was truly to have a chance at finding and developing an impact arm, then clearly the Brewers don't view these players as mere organizational filler. They must believe there is projection in these players, something to dream on, even if the odds to navigate the road to success isn't particularly high.
  17. Eye Black
    Why do you (and some others) think they have low ceilings? I get the part about the odds not being in their favor of reaching their ceilings, but curious what evidence suggests that they have low ceilings?
  18. Eye Black
    Per Jon Heyman on Twitter....
  19. Eye Black
    I still don't see the Brewers coveting Peterson. I have a feeling Edwin Diaz would be a more attractive main piece to them. Can still see guys like Powell or Yarbrough as possibilities in a mulitple piece trade. Also would not be shocked to see one of the Mariners 2015 draft picks involved in the trade. RHP Nick Neidert was their first selection (#60 overall selection) and RHP Andrew Moore their second selection (#72 overall). The Mariners 3rd round pick, CF Braden Bishop was reportedly a guy the Brewers liked going into the draft and he attended a predraft workout at Miller Park. In most cases I would advocate for a quality over quantity trade, but in the case of a trade with the Mariners I think quantity might actually be the better route since their top prospects are far from a sure thing. One interesting side note, if the Brewers did pick-up Diaz to pair with Jorge Lopez, they would have the two highest drafted players ever out of Caguas Military Academy in Puerto Rico.
  20. Eye Black
    I am going to beat a dead horse here, but the scoreboard in two trades between the Braves and DBacks now... [pre]Diamondbacks Braves Philip Gosselin Bronson Arroyo's Salary Shelby Miller Touki Toussaint Ender Inciarte Aaron Blair Dansby Swanson[/pre] I think we found at least one GM who isn't overvaluing his organizations prospect. Please get Dave Stewart on the phone before he unloads the rest of their system!
  21. Eye Black
    I would be happy with that return. At the very least it would cut my tailgating short for the foreseeable future because Gallo's BP sessions at Miller Park would be something to behold. Gallo and Ortiz were two players I was very intrigued with when they were drafted, and I think I would almost be more excited about Ortiz now. I would have some concerns with Gallo, but overall tough to not be excited about acquiring the guy with (arguably?) the highest power potential in the minors.
  22. Eye Black
    Just based on the tiny sample size of trades made so far by Stearns it would seem he may place some value on defensive ability. If true, it would seem to make DJ Peterson a poor fit. If the Brewers do make a deal with the Mariners for Lind that brings back a couple of prospects, one player that intrigues me somewhat is former Brewers 2013 draft pick, LHP Ryan Yarbrough. A 2014 4th round senior sign by the Mariners, he has good command with low-90s velo and a three pitch mix. Not a headliner, but a high floor type of pitcher that would likely provide some value at the MLB level in the not too distant future.
  23. Eye Black
    6 years, $195 million. $32.5 AAV.
  24. Eye Black
    On the flip side if they are in "go for it" mode it might be a good time to target some of their young pitching prospects via trade.
  25. Eye Black
    Well I certainly didn't see that one coming. Giants and Dodgers bidding war, huh?
×
×
  • Create New...