BrewersAA

I don't see any support for this. It assumes so much that we just don't know. It's just as likely -- more likely, if we assume people behave rationally -- that Stearns had a lot of information on a lot of players and used it to go out and get what his information told him was the best return available. Trying to be smarter than you are is indeed a bad thing. But actually being smart is a very good thing. I don't see how you guys have enough information to presume that Stearns was trying to be smarter than he is. That's a huge leap. Sorry, i am calming down and can maybe type a little more clear. What i am saying is that he IS the smartest man in the room, but that can be a detriment. A guy like Marcos Diplan was considered a 'lottery ticket' add on (3rd and worst player included) to the gallardo trade. hes VERY comparable to all three of these guys in every aspect of how they were scouted and signed, experience and exposure lever, everything. He is ranked by ever single service and compilation of scouting data several hundred players better than any of these three. Does that add any perspective to what VALUE sterns brought back?

Sure, we don't know how things will turn out, but one has to wonder if Stearns was trying to be too clever. ^^This^^ GMs in football have been fired over good draft picks... because they take a guy in the first or second round, because they know hes first or second round quality, and thats great, but not when you could have gotten him in the 4th or 5th round. now in the 4th and 5th round there is no more 1st and 2nd round talent to take, because you sacrificed the value of the other picks already. They call it 'smartest guy in the room' syndrome. this move really feels like that.

sorry, the article i read listed them as "non drafted free agents" not as "international signees" regardless... okay, heres some persepctive. I will name some top 30 prospects in the brewers system that are similar age, similar experience, similar signing type, similar amount of scouting data, all ranked 1000 or so players better than these 3. orlando arcia gilbert lara Javier Betancourt Marcos Diplan Miguel Diaz now, seattles system is much worse than ours so those 5 might all be top 10-15. these 3 guys are not even in their top 30! this trade was really really bad. I am not saying that one of these guy wont catch lightening in a bottle, i hope they do, but you could have traded brent suter for them, not Adam Lind. its just really really really really bad value of return. and again, the best way i can articulate that is that the brewer can not trade these guys for a bag of peanuts, they are virtually worthless. Again, im not saying that sterns doesnt know something that every scout in baseball doesnt, and i hope he does, hopefully he has some secret metric literally nobody else has and all three of these guys grade out through the roof on it... but he took a valuable asset and turned it into nothing because these guys have no value.

all three were undrafted free agents. meaning all 30 teams passed on all 3 40(!!!) times. Sure there is some upside, but its just incredibly LOW return for an affordable 280/20/85 Left-handed hitting MLB firstbaseman. EXTREMELY LOW return. Its like hes purposely passed up on better value to be the 'smartest man in the room' and thats proven to never be a good strategy. the best way i could put this trade is that if the brewers put these three guys together and called all 29 other teams and asked "how will you give me for them" they couldnt even get a big-leaguer maybe not even a fringe top 20 prospect nontheless. adam lind should have brought back a top 10 in a good system top 5 in a system like seattles plus 1 or 2 or even all 3 of these guys.

what a let down. EPIC FAIL

wow... bust... not 1 top 30 player in a weak system...

I was just about to say the same thing. Neidert seems more realistic as the headliner. Im praying for Gohara... then Neidert and wells. But i disagree that Neidert would be the more likely headliner... He wont even come in top 20 for the brewers, Gohara is top 10 range just as peterson would have been.

sooo...... is it time to put together another list? I dont have the time or knowledge to put together the list of guys who no longer qualify. I know jungmann for sure has way too many innings, and i think santana has too many at bats, but im not sure on davies, cravy, knebel, goforth, rogers, sardinas etc. I have digested the season and am ready to put together my top 30 heading into next year!

Its been a couple weeks now and i have done quite a bit of search, I know i am just missing it somewhere, but my favorite lowA prospect has just disappeared and I cannot figure out why. Any info on Brandon Diaz? link to the post i missed and cannot find?

I didnt see Jay Chapman, he didnt get in the game. I picked the wrong day to go last night really, but thats okay. I was dissappointed in a few things, Trevor Cahill had Michael Reed WAYYY over-matched, Domingo didnt look great at the plate either (though he has the overall look, build, and swing of a big-leaguer), that combined with confirmation that i now know that michael reed cannot play centerfield (and also looks like a 45 year old man) kind of dampened my night because I was hoping to see both of those guys do something special. Kyle wren looked good at the plate, nice level swing, hes is super speedy, but didnt have the best arm in center, and not that anyone is counting on him to be special i can tell you hes not nearly the player logan shafer is so that probably doesnt bode well for his future. I was also hoping to see something from Matt Dominguez but he just made weak contact every single time up, im pretty sure he didnt get the ball out of the infield. Then Sardinas didnt look great at the plate either, he made good contact in his first AB, took the ball the other way hitting lefty, but it was right to the LF, he also didnt have many chance in the field that werent right at him so it was hard to gague his defense, he just didnt look like an MLBer. Roenicke not only looked like he really knows how to pitch, he handled the bat REALLY well for a pitcher and was suprisingly fast on the bases. He does, though, lack overall stuff, but he worked the dodger hitters really well all night. Another blah guy that was actually a good looking ball player was peter orr, he made good plays at second, laid down a perfect bunt, ran really well (especially for 36!), but Im sure you expect that out of veteran guys. Now, what was exciting was Matt Clark... my goodness... I know hes not really a prospect but OKC is a big park and he CRUSHED the ball. There was just something about him, he was different than everybody on the field except seager, those two just both had something to them that looked special when the walked up to the plate. I called Clarks HR in the first to my buddy who is a dodger fan, so that was fun! His next AB was a double that he took to left center, that maybe gets run down in MLB because the CF was shading him to right center and got a late jump. His 3rd AB i called HR again and i am not sure how the ball stayed in the park, the RF was at the wall and jumped and the ball landed to his right and hit the very top of the ball and somehow bounced in to the field of play right infront of the bullpen... it was one of those that i wonder if it actually went out and his something just on the other side of the wall and came back in, either way it was absolutely crushed, all three of those balls were crushed. the second double that looked like a HR was hit to right and hit right above the 375 sign. The game was good because it was a win. The skysox actually have a lot of talent right now. the guys carry themselves well, even though there werent a lot of impressive ABs up and down the lineup the guys had big league swings. With sardinas it, to me, just looks like he doesnt have a lot of confidence right now. Kyle Wren is a nice player i just dont think he has the power or the arm to be in the majors, but who knows, the kid is just a baseball player. Michael Reed and Domingo Santana both have the look and posture of MLBers, a lot of confidence (even if they have bad nights at the plate). What was interesting about reed is that he looks like he should hit for more power. Matt Clark should be with the brewers, I am not sure what else he needs to show, I know his average for the season could be higher, but watching him (and seager on the dodgers) it was just like a man among boys. Sorry this is gibberish-y but I was just trying to write down all the thoughts I had, I hope someone finds it useful!

You guys I TOTALLY dropped the ball..... Zach Davies made his first brewers start in my town and i didnt go to the game.... big opportunity missed and I apologize. For some reason it just never hit me that they were in OKC for this series. I will go to the next 3 games to see Roenicke, tbd, &tbd pitch... :-( . Hopefully I can get a good look at some of the hitters though. I will keep an eye specifically on wren, reed, santana, rivera, sardinas, and to a lesser extend clark and rogers (we've all aready seen them with the big boys). I am, however, still going to get Davies autograph ;-) among others. Are there any special requests?? I'm hoping suter starts one of the TBD. I am also interested to see Pena throw, last season when he was here in okc, as ive said before, he was throwing 88-91mph not the big mid-90s that was advertised, so i want to see what his stuff looks like.

Ironically cravy got moved into that spot because thornburg got promoted, Thorny would also be on regular rest to take sundays start. Although, in this article http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/320390681.html he indicated hes not 100% healthy, but that he WANTs to start.

Speaking of Will Smith... Did anyone see the NASTY (rated as plus just 2 seasons ago) Curveball that he got 2 BIG strikeouts with last night, one to a lefty and one to a righty. I wonder if a potentially open rotation spot has him wanting to flash his Stuff.

I dont know where all the "only 2 pitches" stuff is coming from on will smith... He was a 3 pitch starter in the royals system with a plus plus fastball, a plus change up, and a developing curveball. What he has done since coming to the brewers, and it actually started the second half of his last season with the royals, was develop a plus plus slider, a NASTY slider. This guy is a 6' 5" 230lbs Lefty with a four pitch mix 3 of which are Plus or better and you would rather give Blazek the spot... drives me nuts (sorry not you specifically). Before he developed his now dominant slider he was considered to have No. 3 starter upside according to a fangraphs scouting report. Here's a Ned Yost quote on smith in spring training his last season with the royals: Here's a Smith quote about his developing slider (that is now his best pitch): Some people think that smiths curveball turned into his slider, but here's another quote that proves otherwise: So there you have it. Will Smith is a different pitcher than when he started for the royals and YES HE HAS MORE THAN 2 PITCHES! (if you are in the pen doing short spurts and you have 2 plus pitches why throw anything else?)

Line-ups are so hard just because position players seem to change hands/positions much more than relievers. There are just a ton of possibilities. I could see a potential lineup where several guys are traded that looks like this. CF: Reed 2B: Perez RF: Braun C: Lucroy LF: Davis 1B: Clark 3B: Rogers SS: Sardinas This also puts a wave of impact guys at AAA and IMO what you are hoping for is a few of these guys to hit and have nice 1st halves and then you flip them and call up Arcia, Phillips, Santiago, & Taylor. I would like to see Davis and Braun traded this winter (nothing against braun, it would just be nice to get out of that contract), but the outfield FA market is deep! Now, on the same hand the FA market for IFs is barren, especially MIFs, so i could see lind having significant offseason value as well as segura and gennett.

They could also pass him up for the promotion to start in favor of someone else nearly every time even though he has the performance and the peripherals... Who says the brewers dont prepare their players for the mental rigors of the game....

He's out of options next season so they can't just move him up and down when they want. Overall my only concern is how healthy his arm is. I'd hate to add to his workload after he narrowly missed TJ surgery last season. I don't know the amount of time it takes to come all the way back from non surgical recovery of a strained elbow ligament relative to surgical repair, but why risk the added workload in the first year back when you don't have to? This is assuming that relieving is easier on the arm than starting... Which is a hot topic, because its conventional that relieving is easier, but as the games changed so has this common school of thought. Many now believe that relieve is much harder on the arm than starting (which is how thornburg got hurt in the first place!!). Being in a rotation with a consistent routine and strict pitch counts and a game plan is much less stress on the arm than going out a random 4 out of 6 days and throwing anywhere between 10 and 30 pitches as hard as you can when depending on the situation maybe a guy is throwing 10 straight breaking pitches (harder on the arm) and so on. Today's MLB is just different and a lot of research is starting to show that starting is much more effective at avoiding injuries. Some clubs, the brewers included, start guys throughout the minors that they know are relievers until they get to double A as to not put the stress of high leverage relieving on their arms for as many years.

We have to keep in mind that if this team is truly rebuilding we cannot pencil in the rotation based on wins, but instead on value. Lets just go out on a wild limb and say Garza put it together to end the season, in a big way (god please) and the brewers are able to trade him. that gives you 2 spots and for my money, they should go to will smith and tyler thornburg. Smith was traded for to be a starter, and i will be honest, call me crazy, he has the build, demeanor, STUFF, and attacking style to be a top of the rotation starter. His Nasty slider was not in his arsenal before... Some people think you shouldnt touch him due to his success in the pen and to that i say you are more crazy than me! middle-late inning relievers are cheap, volatile, and nearly valueless in the MLB... top of the rotation starter are nearly priceless... Im not saying thats what he is, but you would be crazy not to try to find out. Then you have thornburg. I posted this in another thread so i wont get as detailed, but essentially he has ZERO value currently. But if he is even ALMOST as good in the rotation now as he was his previous 10 big league starts (he was DOMINANT) then he becomes a very nice asset that you can keep if you like him or flip for that 3rd or 1st baseman that is nowhere on the horizon in the brewers system. if they both work out and you love them and all five spots are young, cheap, and controllable, you take that excellent depth and turn it into your future 3rd and 1st baseman. And very long term, in 3 years when these guys are hitting arbitration and williams, medieros, ponce, and kirby are ready (among others) you flip them instead of paying them. then if jimmy nelson does become the ACE hes starting to look like you have the money to keep him.

Interesting question. The system is virtually void of corner Ifs. Though at AAA 2 guys that i would still really like to see get regular ABs at jason rogers and matt clark. I feel like at best the could each be average plus, and at worst they cant be worse, lol, than playing shortstops everywhere. They may provide a year or 2 (hopefully not 2) while the brewers try to flip their SS and CF assets into some corner IF assets. Of the guys currently the guy that makes the most sense to me is Clint Coulter, he has the least OF experience and has the necessary power, the other thing i really like about him is his size, athleticism, and flexibility. He has the tools to hit for the requisite power and potential be a top flight defensive 1st baseman.

I feel like this might belong in the 2016 rotation thread, but I will say my peace on your point. I think its more important to see what you have in thornburg than any of these other guys because this team is in the middle of a rebuild. In thornburg you have a former top 100 prospect with insane K rates as a starter throughout the minors that has ZERO current value. Every other guy you mentioned currently has decent value as an unproven commodity. You need to let thornburg start and see if he still has it at the top level for the rest of this season. If he fails, you (the brewers) are in exactly the same position, all those other guys still have the same value and thornburg has the same value and in the end you might be closer to the top pick in the 16' draft. Now, if he succeeds, this is why you do it, all the other guys you mentioned still have the exact same value, but thornburgs value goes from zero to the highest on that list, thats a significant gain for a team in baseballs smallest market, and you still likely have a top 5 pick due to this team not being able to score runs. If this does happen then the brewers have options, if you still dont 'like' thornburg he is tradable and his price is significantly higher, maybe worth an exciting AA 3rd or 1st baseman. If the brewers do like him you now have another young and controllable starter blocking the patch to guys like cravy and davies, which i bet could bring back a nice player if packaged in a trade. So i know this got long and hopefully i kept it succinct, but its all about value. If your team is rebuilding, and playing for a top 5 pick, it literally doesnt make any sense to this arm chair GM to not start Thornburg now that the deadline has passed. (this is the same reason they kept trotting lohse out there, hoping he recouped some value)

2 big things on this. 1. See Taylor Jungmann... 2. Thornburg earned a rotation spot in 13' (like he should have had in 14 and 15 as well) and was not really given a fair look because RR didnt seem to like him, so instead he was sent to AAA and was shelled in similar fashion (confidence? Giving up?) Then in 14 he earned it again and was put in the bullpen in a next man up situation... Okay i understand that. Then this year he was actually pitching really well coming back at AAA and he didnt start getting shelled until he got passed over 3 different times for a chance to start, then it was like a flood gate opened and the runs started piling up. You can only mess with a guy so much and expect him to keep producing in the worst pitching environment in baseball. Tyler Thornburg: 26 years old, 2 time top 100 prospect, Stats as a Big League Starter ERA: 2.37 Starts: 10 IP: 57.0 K: 45 WHIP: 1.228 K/9: 7.1 K/BB: 2.25 As a big league reliever: ERA: 3.74 Games: 51 IP: 74.2 K: 63 WHIP: 1.420 K/9: 7.6 K/BB: 1.66 He never had an ERA over 3.58 in the minors until the brewers started messing with him and his K rates have always been off the charts... All of that considered I REALLY hope the brewers give him a fair shake. EDIT His ERA is also a full run lower than Jungmanns at Col. Springs (why stats there dont matter). I found this interesting, he's pitched in 5 day games (!) seems like a lot :-/ ... His ERA in those games 7.71 (!!!) his ERA in 12 night games is a much more palatable 4.28... not sure what thats all about but seems to correlate with the Jungmann "Big Game" performer mentality.

I am also very interested in seeing will smith get a shot to start. He and TT were both in line for rotation spots last season and then garza signed. TT earned it and I really like what smith has stuff wise.

He's going long relief for loose today, I think this would slit him to take this spot in the rotation next time it comes up... Anyone think the Brewers might give him the slot for a while and see if he runs with it?

Now we just need Lohse, KRod, Lind, and Cotts traded!! Then Thornburg can get his shot in the rotation that hes earned and deserved!

Ends up being the dominant closer for the cards, they ride him to a world series championship... Book it, stamp it, put it in the bank