RoseBowlMtg

Chris interesting premise so I looked up some other players to see how they did in risp. ......Aaron.....Brett.....Carew......Yount......Molitor risp: ...321......307.....339..........293........327 none on:.293.......297......316.........277........299 Some of the great hitters of our time just didn't care or were they clutch or did pitchers pitch differently to them with risp? Sure they did.

I don't know why one excels in hitting with runners on base while others don't but I wouldn't criticize them. If Simmons batted .272 with runners not on and risp he would be free from your rip. If he hit worse with risp your question would be how come. That is an easier answer since there is a clutch situation imo where there is more pressure. Since Simmons excelled in hitting with risp was it because he took more pride in it or since he batted 4th that was his job. In his Cardinal years the runners on were fast so did he get more fastballs to hit which he was good at? Did the pitcher not pay as much to Simmons which changed the way he pitched? Did the pitcher concentrate too much on the runners on base? I don't know but he did well. Let's look at situational hitting for our 2 HOF catchers and Simmons: (ave: OBP: IBB) .........Simmons............Fisk..........Carter risp: .299, .380, 188/ .270, .358, 105/ .271, .363, 106 none: .272, .327, 0/ .265, .334, 0/ .255, .318, 0 on: .299, .369, 188/.274, .348, 105/ .272, .354, 106 1 - -: .298, .350, 0/ .279, .335, 0/ .273, .338, 0 - 2 -: .275, .403, 93/ .249, .371, 53/ .270, .402, 57 - - 3: .265, .370, 28/ .273, .361, 14/ .282, .350, 8 1 2 -: .309, .347, 0/ .250, .303, 0/ .253, .310, 0 1 - 3: .326, .331, 3/ .352, .408, 5/ .329, .362, 3 - 2 3: .339, .550, 64/ .321, .460, 33/ .189, .437, 38 123: .343, .332, 0/ .246, .304, 0/ .282, .292, 0 Simmons batted worse than his no one on average only with a runner on third but his obp was 43 points higher. Why? They pitched around him. Let's start criticizing all Fisk for hitting .352 with runners on the corners and .321 with runners at 2nd and third. How come he only hit .265 with no one on? HOFamer Gary Carter hit .329 with runners on the corners but .255 with no one on. He doesn't care either? Interesting seeing what these two HOF catchers did over their careers with the bases jammed: Fisk .246 and Carter .282 while Simmons hit .343. That could be a reason why he had more RBI's. I conclude that Simmons didn't care less with no one on he performed better with the pitcher pitching from the stretch and concentrating on the fast runners on base. That to me is more reasonable than not caring.

Here is an interesting look at some Brewers OBP In order of average: 1: Gwynn: .345 2: Hardy: .312 3: Jenkins: .303 4: Fielder: .293 5: Estrada: .286 6: Hall: .268 7: Mench: .266 8: Hart: .262 9: Weeks: .252 10: Counsell: .239 11: Miller: .222 12: Gross: .205 13: Graffanino: .198 Now let's look at OBP rank vs BA rank & difference: 1: Gwynn: .410: (1) (-) 2: Fielder: .375: (4) (+2) 3: Gross: .368: (12) (+9) 4: Counsell: .364: (10) (+6) 5: Jenkins: .357: (3) (-2) 6: Weeks: .355: (9) (+3) 6: Hardy: .355: (2) (-4) 8: Hall: .329: (7) (-1) 9: Hart: .323: (8) (-1) 10: Estrada: .306: (5) (-5) 11: Miller: .280: (11) (-) 12: Mench: .270: (6) (-6) 13: Graffanino: .268: (13) (-) OBP skyrockets Gross and Counsell and indentifies people who criticize Ned for putting those two up top as non-OBP readers or believers. Breaking down stats does help you to show Ned's thinking. What do you think is an acceptable OBP? ('fixed' the emoticon that accidentally appeared --1992casey)

This seems like it will be a long game! Come on get Nomar he's not on roids anymore!

So if Simmons would have hit .272 or 9 points over the league average you wouldn't have criticized him but since he unlike most major leaguers actually performed better with risp you rip him for that. Interesting to me is how well el caballo did in knocking in runs and the pride he took in it. In 06 Lee batted .331 with risp while knocking in 77 runs and .307 with no one on. So why didn't he hit .331 all year? That is the interesting question and an interesting take on criticizing someone who does better with runners on. Don't you feel the Brewers miss his bat and his attitude at the plate? Not saying anything negative about the trade but a guy who excels at coming thru with risp is rare and should be praised imo. Late inning pressure situations are when their closers are in to face the best hitters and the ones who beat them are special.

Chris as always you bring up interesting points. Should Wilt Chamberlain be criticized for not scoring 100 points in every game? OK that's a bit of an extreme but anytime someone excells do you criticize them for not doing it all the time. In baseball that would be difficult since 1 for 3 is excellent. No HOF debate but clutch but it is interesting comparing Carter, Fisk and Simmons since they played the same era. Let's look at these numbers: player: AB: %: RBI's Carter: 7971: 15.37%: 1225 Fisk: 8756: 15.19%: 1330 Simba: 8680: 16.00% 1389 If Carter would have knocked in runs at the 16% pace Simmons did he would have had 50 more RBI's If Fisk would have knocked in runs at the 16% pace Simmons did he would have knocked in 1401 runs or 71 more and 12 more than Simmons. But they didn't! Let's look at numbers with risp: player: RBI: AB: H: %: 2B: 3B: HR: ave: OPS+ Carter: 882: 2220: 601: 39.73%: 100: 12: 79: .271: 107 Fisk: 924: 2318: 625: 39.86%: 107: 13: 84: .270: 100 Simba: 1121: 2509: 751: 44.68%: 141: 18: 81: .299: 116 If Carter would have knocked in a run at Simmons 44.68% clip with risp he would have knocked in 110 more runs or 1335 in his career or 8.9% more for his career. He didn't. If Fisk would have knocked in a run at Simmons 44.68% clip with risp he would have knocked in 111 more runs or 1441 for his career and more than any catcher ever but he didn't. If Simmons would have knocked in runs with risp at Fisk's pace of 39.86% he would have knocked in 121 fewer runs and would have knocked in 1268 or 62 fewer than Fisk or only 43 more than Carter. Simmons didn't and that's why he did better than those HOF catchers. For you OPS+ fans with risp: Fisk: 100 Carter: 107 Simmons: 116 To criticize Simmons when he hit .272 or 9 points over the league average with no runners on open plenty of players to rip then. Michael Jordan's shot over Craig Ehlo was great but he missed one in the first quarter? How many people would have made that or was willing to make it? That to me is clutch. Thanks for the fun discussion Chris.

In jest I assume but: lg ave for Simba's 21 yr career was .263 so not trying in non "clutch" situations he was 9 points higher. His slugging was 27 points higher. Here is an interesting look imo on three catchers who played the during the same era: Player: RISP: No risp: 2 out risp: Late & close: Tie game: Carter: .271, .255, .235, .266, .260 (38 IBB) Fisk: .270, .265, .247, .261, .257, (28 IBB) Simba: .299, .272, .274, .292, .296 (64 IBB) Would have Carter been closer than 169 RBI's to Simmons if he had hit .299 with risp? Would Fisk had needed less than 8 yrs of play after Simmons stopped playing full time to get closer 69 RBI's if he had hit .299 with risp? They didn't and that's why their numbers pale in comparison. Say what you want about clutch hitting but looking at two HOF catchers if they would have excelled in hitting with risp they would have been up with a catcher who only got 17 votes for the HOF!

Pop ups! This team makes defense so easy for the other team. What happened to hitting the screen mentality of spring training? HR fever! The little things kill you more so when you're hitting poorly with Prince not getting down for the second time in a week on an easy ground ball and later on firing a ball into LF on an easy pickoff. Hitting covers up poor fundamentals but also the lack of it exposes it. One of the two need to get better.

yes!

I agree Chris that it is hard to determine but when you hear things like el caballo saying to Prince last year like you have to do anything you can to get that run in. It's no wonder Lee knocks in a lot of runs and he takes a different approach with risp. How many do and how many are as successful? I think you can watch a game and know if it is a clutch situation or not but looking at stats in hindsight makes it harder. I do believe Cooper's hit in the alcs was clutch but it is hard to determine the fringe hits.

It seems they always compare a player's ability to hit in the clutch compared to their overall average when imo they should compare it to their average with no runners on. I know those are clutch at times also but as far as knocking in runs it should be that way imo. For example they say a guy for a career rarely hits 10 points higher in the clutch than their overall average. In Ted Simmons career he was known as a clutch hitter leading the Cardinals in RBI's a ML record 7 straight times. Let's look at his career numbers: 21 yr career: ave: OBP; Slg career ave: .285, .348, 437 no one on: .272, .327, 417 men on base: .299, .369, .458 RISP: .299, .380, .467 bases loaded: .343, .332, .556 .299 with risp is better (.014) than they say rarely happens but is 27 points higher than with no one on for an entire career. His obp and slugging were much higher also. So why isn't "clutch" compared to non-clutch situations instead of every ab including clutch?

I notice the Brewers pop up too often and this seems to be the best stat displaying that. Johnny Estrada is the best Brewer @ 1.09 with JJ 95th or second last in the NL @ .41. Is there a pop up specific stat or is this the best?

It was interesting hearing about the support Counsell got in Arizona and to see how many people look down on him in his hometown. Why not support a local guy with marginal talent who plays the game hard and has people from his previous teams love the way he plays? Eckstein is adored in St Louis, hopefully Brewer fans can appreciate Craig's efforts at the end of a nice career most people never thought he would have achieved.

OK who else liked this lineup?

Another play by Prince that is an error on a teammate!!! Back to back games!

Last year Bob Melvin lead Counsell off and has huge amt of respect for him playing the game the right way. It seems JJ is the only player working counts and Counsell can better in the 2 slot. I'm very interested seeing if those two can set a trend today.

I love having Counsell and JJ back to back in the first inning Hopefully they can work the count and get a look at all the pitches and wear him out. Go Crew!

Bush throws to first for a throwing error! I hope this isn't another "another first baseman" would have gotten that. Hopefully Prince can save some errors this year!

Here are some interesting takes on the HOF ommission: Ted Simmons was such a big star for 21 seasons in the majors that it was a shock to many people when the Hall of Fame voters in 1994 gave him less than 4% of the vote and he was thereafter dropped from the ballot. His credentials, as pointed out below, exceed those of most Hall of Fame catchers. He was often in the All Star game, being named eight times. As a catcher, he had unusually high batting averages, hitting in the top ten in the league six times. In 1975 he was second in the league. He broke in during the second dead-ball era when averages were low, so his averages mean more than they would today. For instance, in 1972, he hit .303 when the league as a whole hit only .248. Simmons' lifetime batting average of .285 is tied with Hall of Famer Yogi Berra, and better than Hall of Famers Johnny Bench (.267) and Carlton Fisk (.269). In fact, there is no Hall of Fame catcher who has played in major league baseball since 1950 who has a batting average as high as the .285 that Berra and Simmons share. Some of the players prior to 1950 had gaudy batting averages during the lively ball era, but consider the reality. For example, Bill Dickey, famed for his high batting average, was only in the top ten in the league 3 times (compared to 6 for Simmons), and his highest finish was 3rd (compared to 2nd for Simmons). And Mickey Cochrane has the highest batting average of any Hall of Fame catcher (.320), but was only in the top 10 five times and never finished as high as Simmons' second place finish. Simmons has 2,472 lifetime hits, more than any catcher in the Hall of Fame. The closest is Carlton Fisk with 2,356. Yogi Berra had 2,150. Simmons' power was excellent for a catcher. He hit 483 doubles lifetime, which is # 58 on the all-time list. There is no catcher in the history of baseball who was primarily a catcher who has as many doubles as Simmons. Carlton Fisk, in a longer career, had 421, and Bob Boone had 303, Gary Carter had 371, Yogi Berra had 321, and Johnny Bench had 381. Simmons had 1389 RBI in his career. That total is higher than every catcher in the Hall of Fame, except for Yogi Berra, who had 1430. Yogi, like Simmons, also played several hundred games at positions other than catcher. Simmons hit 248 home runs in his career. Only four of the fourteen Hall of Fame catchers have hit more. Gary Carter, who had 324 home runs, had a slugging percertage of .439, only two points higher than Simmons, because Simmons had so many more singles and doubles than Carter. Simmons won no MVP awards, but then neither did Gary Carter or Carlton Fisk or Bill Dickey or Rick Ferrell or several other Hall of Fame catchers. Simmons did finish as high as 6th in the MVP voting in 1975, a year in which his team barely finished over .500. Simmons' best years were unfortunately spent with a St. Louis Cardinals team that could not win the division while he was there. The team did win the pennant when he was an 18-year-old rookie, but he appeared in only 2 games (hitting .333) and did not appear in post-season play. Ted Simmons had an extremely long career at catcher, playing in 1,771 games at that position. Bob Boone and Carlton Fisk, his contemporaries, set records at the position with over 2,200 games, so Simmons does not hold the record but the career is exceedingly long, and he also added several hundred games at DH, first base, third base, and outfield. He was considered adequate defensively, but won no Gold Gloves. Of course, during most of Simmons' career as a catcher, Johnny Bench won the Gold Glove for National League catcher every year, so winning the Gold Glove at the time was unusually tough. You didn't just have to be the best defensive catcher in the league - you had to beat Johnny Bench at defense. He did finally get into the 1982 World Series in his days with the Milwaukee Brewers, on the famous "Brew Crew". After his playing career ended, Ted Simmons was General Manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates from 1992 to 1993. Simmons left the job due to health problems. There is already a movement to get the Veterans Committee to let him into the Hall of Fame. See Why Ted Simmons Belongs in

Would it help to mention the home/away stats? Fisk: 112 Park Factor: Home: .337/.440/.576 Away: .295/.364/.470 Simmons: 98 Park Factor: Home: .310/.397/.484 Away: .326/.419/.516 Is there any formula to estimate what Simmons would have hit in a 112 park factor and Fisk in a 98? Interesting to note which way each player went away from their home. Any help?

Could one of you more sabermetric than me tell me how much park factor effects the individual for the year? Is it a mathematical formula or estimate. You all know my comparison with Simmons and Fisk but I just came up with the Park Factors in comparison. The same 14 yrs I used to compare Fisk and Simmons, here are the park factors: Fisk/ Simmons Fenway/Busch 72: 106/99 +7 73: 106/100 +6 74: 107/99 +8 75: 109/104 +5 76: 112/101 +11 77: 112/98 +14 78: 111/99 +12 79: 106/101 +5 80: 105/103 +2 Comiskey/County St 81: 98/95 +3 82: 100/94 +6 83: 104/92 +12 84: 105/96 +9 85: 104/100 +4 Totals: Fisk: 1485/14 = 106.07 Totals: Simba: 1381/14 = 98.64 What is the formula if parks were changed or do you just multiply to get to 100? For ex: Some say Fisk had a better year in 77. What does park factor do to the stats and what if they were switched? Fisk: 536 AB, 169 H, 26 2B, 26 HR, 102 RBI, 75 BB, 85 K's, .315 BA, .521 SA Simmons: 516 AB, 164 H, 25 2B, 21 HR's, 95 RBI's, 79 BB, 37 K's, .318 BA, .500 SA Now how does a park factor of 112 for Fisk and park factor of 98 effect these similar stats? Thanks

That's an interesting take since Overbay played two years here and one in Toronto so I assume that means now he would price himself out of the market. Toronto will offer him a long term deal this year which will be more than Milwaukee could offer I presume. So the question is will Toronto's contract to Overbay this year be a contract Milwaukee can't afford? If that happened would Toronto have known to apprecitate him like they do if they didn't get a chance to know him up close. Would they then have given him a long term deal? Would Overbay stay for less in Milwaukee? I believe Overbay would have stayed with the team who gave him his chance in the majors. All speculation aside, it will be interesting seeing when Prince outperforms Lyle if that great year prices himself out of the market.

laser good points: 7 times the money can be looked at differently since Overbay got his first semi-big money this year at $2,525,000, the Brewers paid out to Fielder $2,400,000 in 02 for a signing bonus plus extras for education. Add Prince's $329,500 this year the Brewers had more into Prince than Toronto had into Overbay. I think everyone agrees Prince will make more money than Overbay in his career and Overbay only cost Milw $326,000 and $446,000. My fear is Prince will price himself out of Milwaukee market based on potential instead of production. As for debating the trade, the trade was great for both teams so I am not arguing the trade, I just think the Brewers would have gotten more if they traded Prince, which I don't think they should have done. Most everyone has Prince's ceiling is higher so his trade value to an AL team would get more in return. So far, the production of Fielder hasn't exceeded Overbay's so when will it and how long will Milw benefit from it?

end by thinking Overbay had his best year do you think he has peaked? He got better the more familiar he got with the AL pitchers. You know how he keeps records of pitchers and he said this past year it took him awhile to get adjusted. Next year could be more of the same similar to what Overbay had in the second half where he hit .330 his last two months. He will get a long term deal which will be his first security and is loved north of the border. Class guy like him, I believe he takes off but time will tell. He excelled so long in the minors now has proven himself in the majors so watch out imo.

Once again I am not talking about the trade but who played better. I would think most people would have thought trading Prince would have gotten more than trading Lyle since so many see such an upside for Prince especially in the AL. Here is a Toronto site if you want to see how their fans viewed Lyle:Toronto grades: