Playing Catch

4.2 fWAR in 78 games last season... so yeah, maybe.

But he'll be remembered for punching a wall, and giving up Alonso's dinger.

I agree. I wish Devin a long, healthy, fruitful career. His performance with the Brewers was imperfect, but there was enough perfection scattered throughout his time to make the flaws worth it.

Bingo. Usually with highly regarded prospects, there is a lot of development-risk, and reliever risk (like Misiorowski). Priester's risk-factors are low, except for continued MLB development (which may never happen, who knows). But he also has some development ceiling left to his profile. When he graduated from prospect lists he was still a Top 100 prospect. There's still enough room with his profile that he could end up actually being good, not just fine. That remaining hope of something more will cost you in a trade. Fangraphs states that Yophery wasn't as valuable as the pick. Which is what many here at BF believe as well. I think if the 2025 draft rolled around, and the Brewers picked a college senior at pick 33 that they thought could slot directly into their 2025 rotation, but with merely okay results, they would do it in a heartbeat.

His aloof nature and beard may not pair well with poor performance in the Bronx.

I dread the two-week stretch in late July when Chourio and the team are slumping, and Chourio has to shoulder responsibility for the team's slide. He's too young to feel that kind of pressure. Of course, if he never slumps...

I keep looking for comps, and I just can't find any. I guess he is what he is. I hate contemporary superlative buzzwords like unicorn or goat, but he's really unusual. Current tall pitchers like Bailey Ober or Logan Gilbert came up with plus command from the jump. Guys can't hit him, and don't hit dingers when they do hit him. But his walk rates look unsustainable. Can he survive as a good five-and-dive starter? I just can't help but believe that if he were to come up and start, there would be some UGLY outings sandwiched between 5 IP 0 R outings. The Brewers recipe in the last couple of years has been to avoid ugly anything. They don't always have pretty, clean outings, but they keep you in the ballgame.

So, when I watched the clip, he seemed to use a curveball as the basis for everything he's doing. It looked like he threw a couple of sliders to lefties and threw sinker/cutter/changeup(?) down, and 4-seamer to get chases above the zone. The changeup seems firm to me. Like a spinning slider. Am I blind? Stupid? both? Don't answer that question.

I presume "LA Sweet-Spot%" is basically how often a hitter has the optimum launch angle? But it doesn't tell you "average launch angle"? So a player in the blue zone hits more ground balls, and pop ups? I would think that statistic has a lot of noise in there, as it wouldn't account for types of pitches. If one ONLY hits fastballs because they swing and miss at breaking balls and sinkers, their "average" launch angle may look better than someone with better contact rates. I'm kind of a launch-angle denier, though. I know I'm on the wrong side of that argument, but I can't help it.

Oh, certainly... I just meant that perhaps they put him onto the IL just to help him skip a start, spend time with his family early in the season.

I'm not sure I agree that the DSL guys "main" use should be to trade them, but your thesis is sound. It's hard to turn 16-year-olds into big leaguers within the team control timeline. There is probably an art to promoting players, and trading them before they fail.

Sounds like the hope some of us had that this was merely an extended paternity leave has been dashed.

👀 Please elaborate. Where else can Adamczewski play?

That's correct. When a premium-looking, first round pedigree type of 24-year-old pitcher is able to generate grounders, one can dream for more. I think we're all confident that Connor Thomas' ceiling isn't as high as Priester's. Also, if Houser had Priester's curveball, and the Brewers current infield, I suspect his numbers would have looked a lot better.

I think his floor is higher than Logan Henderson's, and his ceiling is similar (but with very different profiles). I think limiting flyballs is really key to finding big league consistency. There's simply too many tiny parks. With that said, I'm probably past the point of straining myself to ignore his NINETY-NINE big league innings.

I've long felt that the organization will trade him when the time comes, but in recent days, seeing his interviews and how the team has hyped him up as their "ace," I can't help but wonder if the team is going to try and extend him (I'm not sure I would support this decision). I am fully aware that that is not how this team has operated, to date, but his case may fit differently than the pitchers traded in recent years. He seems to be an eyes-wide-open, driven professional that is taking nothing for granted. He already signed one extension with the team that raised him as a pro. I think he knows that he'll need to keep performing at a high level to get the next contract. In his interviews it seems like he is big on family, and perhaps by extension, loyalty. He has become a de facto leader. His English is strong enough to really take the lead in interviews and connecting with both teammates and fans. He seems like a "safe" extension in the sense that he's a pro, he'll work his tail off, and he'll be an excellent organizational ambassador. Contract-wise, he's a tier below the tippy-top starters. If he were a free agent today, as a 28-year-old, I think he would get 5 or 6 years. At the end of his current contract (presuming a team picks up the 2026 option), he'll be 31, and I think at that point, he'll only get 3 or 4 years. I think the following contracts would be comparable... 2024 - Eduardo Rodriguez (30 years old) - 4 years - $80M - AAV $20M 2025 - Sean Manaea (32 years old) - 3 years - $75M - AAV $25M 2025 - Sonny Gray (34 years old) - 3 years - $75M - AAV $25M 2025 - Luis Severino (30 years old) - 3 years - $67M - AAV $22M 2022 - Jose Barrios (27 years old) - 7 years - $131M - AAV $19M There's a number of other deals that are comps, including Pablo Lopez, Yusei Kikuchi, Marcus Stroman, etc. Putting all of that together, and assuming that Freddy is WILLING to extend (a big "if"), I can see an extension that includes the Brewers turning down his $8M option in the following ranges... 5 years (2026-2030) for $75M - AAV $15M or 7 years (2026-2032) for $90 - AVV $13M

I know he no longer qualifies as a prospect, but at 24 years old, where would you guys put Priester?

"Why Priester?" A. Groundball%. There were only 6 qualified pitchers last season with a groundball rate of better than 50% (two of which are Red Sox, Houck and Bello). Priester has routinely posted GB% north of that mark. B. HR/9. There were 17 qualified pitchers last season with a HR/9 below 1.0. Priester never had a MiLB season above 0.75. C. K-BB%. There were around 25 qualified pitchers last season with a K-BB% in 16-17% range. Priester's worst MiLB season was 16%, and last season in AAA was at 20%. D. 4+ pitch mix. This guy has starter written all over him, and can spin pitches, having a 70-grade curveball according to some scouts at different times, and has had good velocity at times as well (96-98 mph according to a 2020 scouting report from BA). E. First Round pedigree/good athlete. He has the "look," for whatever that's worth. F. All of the above. Coming up with a wrinkle to his fastball has been his bugaboo -- thus the Corbin Burnes sorts of comparisons. He's already reached his floor as a depth starter, but I think if Priester ends up reaching his ceiling as a Brewer, it will look like Christopher Sanchez, Tanner Houck, or best-case, Framber Valdez. I thought these snippets from old BA scouting reports were interesting. From February of 2020: "He didn't have a pitching coach as an amateur, with a lot of his development self-taught from watching other pitchers on YouTube." From December 2020: "Priester is a studious learner who quickly picks up the game’s newest trends on pitch mechanics and deception." Time will tell if this trade ages well, or poorly, but I think the odds are good that this will end up being a fair, or better trade. I also think the likeliest scenario is that this trade becomes inconsequential over time. Priester becomes a serviceable starter, and the Red Sox never amount to much more than making a 40-man roster.

Yeah. I've always felt that there are hundreds of MLB 4th/5th OFers. If an outfielder doesn't develop into a bonafide CFer, they really have to mash to make themselves more than a backup. I wonder if the Brewers decided that Yophery was never going to be a true CFer. At that point, a lot of his prospect-luster fades into Carlos Rodriguez/Hedbert Perez territory, as a prospect. Still valuable, but not irreplaceable. I agree with Joseph that perhaps this gives Tyler Black a lifeline when he returns.

This is exactly my take on it, @Cool Hand Lucroy. I would add that these days, the volume of scouting available after just a few weeks of spring could have put Priester right back near the top of the prospect ladder. Kid's only 24; he's a first-round pick by Pittsburgh out of high school in 2019. Covid happens after his draft year. He has really strong minor league performance. In 2023, he makes his debut, and is traded from the Pirates to the Red Sox. Flash forward to spring of 2025, and he fails to make the Red Sox opening day roster, soon being traded to the Milwaukee Brewers. I'm not predicting any outcomes for the trade, but it's reasonable to think that after having his minor league career disrupted, (and perhaps being rushed by the Pirates in the process, in order to put on a show for a future trade?)*, that Priester has finally developed into his previous promise. As far as the return for Priester is concerned, it's a lot, but I don't think a significant overpay, especially if the team sees this as a season-saving type of move. *purely my own speculation

I had no idea who it was, beyond your guesses above, but now that I see the picture, it looks so obvious! edit to add: He'll be a guy I'll always remember fondly.

I'm really concerned about those non-competitive fastballs.

I'm already sick and tired of going up against lefties. Lodolo tomorrow, too.

This bulleted quote from the article was made abundantly clear watching MLB Network yesterday... "The industry was more aware of players trending toward using these bats than the media and general public were; this didn't sneak up on teams or players." All day long MLB Network's personalities were all over these bats, interviewing bat manufacturers, hitting instructors, physics professors. I think they were universally in favor of them. I suspect that the league wanted to get ahead of traditionalist baseball fans getting upset about the change. Mark DeRosa and Harold Reynolds said they probably would've used these bats their whole career. I suspect this bat will improve barrel-rate for many hitters. But I would also suspect that it could reduce power for power hitters. I could be very wrong about all of my assumuptions, but I would imagine that a guy like Chourio would NOT use this bat. He's got such excellent plate coverage. I wouldn't want him to sap any opposite-field power in exchange for pull power (if my hypothesis is correct and that that's what happens with these bats).

I'm walking back what I said yesterday. I think this phenomenon WILL be a big deal, but that it will enhance the game for everyone, including fans. I think that one of two things may happen. (A) - hitters like Brice Turang or Sal Frelick, who don't need to maximize power to the opposite field will benefit, and some selection of hitters will use the bat all the time. This wouldn't fundamentally change how fans watch a game, but it would help to make singles hitters more relevant. OR (B) - many hitters use the bat situationally, perhaps depending on pitcher's throwing hand? I imagine Elly De La Cruz use the bat as a right-handed hitter, or maybe Willy Adames will betray his hitting strategy with a guy on 3rd and less than two outs by selecting the long iron rather than his usual driver. Baseball could dramatize this by highlighting which bat the player selects coming out of the dugout. Please note that I am making some assumptions about the physics of the bat. I am assuming that the reduced angular velocity of the sweet spot being moved inside will not be mitigated significantly by the increase in bat speed. In my head, the bat is merely trading some opposite field power for more pull power for guys that struggle getting the head around inside pitches.