Playing Catch

You know the Brewers face Reese Olson tomorrow, correct?

@Brock Beauchamp needs to add some kind of shared forum from all the team sites where we can debate this sort of thing with actual Twins fans.

Freddy has been awesome so far. But I don't have to tell you that if the Brewers are 10 games out on July 1st, and he's pitching well, he could net a significant return. I would also argue that any of Hoskins, Haase, Payamps, and Peguero could easily perform well enough to be of interest to teams that need someone of their skillset. But my thought wasn't necessarily about maximizing each player's value, as much as providing MLB opportunities for those players I listed (Henderson, Garcia, EMJ, Yoho, Black, Durbin and Quero). I am guessing there are a number of guys in the front office that are as eager as I am to find out what those players can do in the big leagues.

Hopefully! If there IS a catcher there, said catcher will need plenty of game reps before moving him off the position. Probably years' worth. I was daydreaming about EMJ, and thinking that the Big club probably wouldn't be affected THAT much, in terms of regular season record, if they did some spring cleaning with the roster. Out with the old, in with the new... Trade (or Release) - Freddy, Rhys, Bauers, Haase, Payamps, Peguero. I would think, collectively, you could get back some decent prospects for those guys. Promote - Logan Henderson, Deivi Garcia, EMJ, Quero, Yoho, and Durbin/Black.

I tend to go with the idea that if you warm up your closer, you put them in. But if Megill sits down last night, and Payamps gets a ground ball double-play to end the game, you think to yourself, "Nice! gave Megill another day. Got Payamps an opportunity to turn things around. Won the game, great!" If 100 represents league average, I'd give Murphy a 90 on that decision. I thought it was the wrong decision at the time, but I don't mind the aggressive thought process. He was trying to steal an inning, there. It just failed and they lost the game. He would never acknowledge this publicly, and perhaps not even within the coach's offices, but I think that sometimes Murphy likes testing his players a little bit by introducing unpredictability. The closer role is a mind game. Megill needs to come in and do the job, even if it didn't go according to plan. If he's going to be trusted with that role, he needs to do the job even when it isn't set up perfectly.

It's early, and the Brewers aren't the only team that doesn't have a 3rd baseman.

There are about a dozen good 3rd baseman in the world, then a big drop-off. The void is filled with utility players. We all kinda knew this going into the off-season.

4.2 fWAR in 78 games last season... so yeah, maybe.

But he'll be remembered for punching a wall, and giving up Alonso's dinger.

I agree. I wish Devin a long, healthy, fruitful career. His performance with the Brewers was imperfect, but there was enough perfection scattered throughout his time to make the flaws worth it.

Bingo. Usually with highly regarded prospects, there is a lot of development-risk, and reliever risk (like Misiorowski). Priester's risk-factors are low, except for continued MLB development (which may never happen, who knows). But he also has some development ceiling left to his profile. When he graduated from prospect lists he was still a Top 100 prospect. There's still enough room with his profile that he could end up actually being good, not just fine. That remaining hope of something more will cost you in a trade. Fangraphs states that Yophery wasn't as valuable as the pick. Which is what many here at BF believe as well. I think if the 2025 draft rolled around, and the Brewers picked a college senior at pick 33 that they thought could slot directly into their 2025 rotation, but with merely okay results, they would do it in a heartbeat.

His aloof nature and beard may not pair well with poor performance in the Bronx.

I dread the two-week stretch in late July when Chourio and the team are slumping, and Chourio has to shoulder responsibility for the team's slide. He's too young to feel that kind of pressure. Of course, if he never slumps...

I keep looking for comps, and I just can't find any. I guess he is what he is. I hate contemporary superlative buzzwords like unicorn or goat, but he's really unusual. Current tall pitchers like Bailey Ober or Logan Gilbert came up with plus command from the jump. Guys can't hit him, and don't hit dingers when they do hit him. But his walk rates look unsustainable. Can he survive as a good five-and-dive starter? I just can't help but believe that if he were to come up and start, there would be some UGLY outings sandwiched between 5 IP 0 R outings. The Brewers recipe in the last couple of years has been to avoid ugly anything. They don't always have pretty, clean outings, but they keep you in the ballgame.

So, when I watched the clip, he seemed to use a curveball as the basis for everything he's doing. It looked like he threw a couple of sliders to lefties and threw sinker/cutter/changeup(?) down, and 4-seamer to get chases above the zone. The changeup seems firm to me. Like a spinning slider. Am I blind? Stupid? both? Don't answer that question.

I presume "LA Sweet-Spot%" is basically how often a hitter has the optimum launch angle? But it doesn't tell you "average launch angle"? So a player in the blue zone hits more ground balls, and pop ups? I would think that statistic has a lot of noise in there, as it wouldn't account for types of pitches. If one ONLY hits fastballs because they swing and miss at breaking balls and sinkers, their "average" launch angle may look better than someone with better contact rates. I'm kind of a launch-angle denier, though. I know I'm on the wrong side of that argument, but I can't help it.

Oh, certainly... I just meant that perhaps they put him onto the IL just to help him skip a start, spend time with his family early in the season.

I'm not sure I agree that the DSL guys "main" use should be to trade them, but your thesis is sound. It's hard to turn 16-year-olds into big leaguers within the team control timeline. There is probably an art to promoting players, and trading them before they fail.

Sounds like the hope some of us had that this was merely an extended paternity leave has been dashed.

👀 Please elaborate. Where else can Adamczewski play?

That's correct. When a premium-looking, first round pedigree type of 24-year-old pitcher is able to generate grounders, one can dream for more. I think we're all confident that Connor Thomas' ceiling isn't as high as Priester's. Also, if Houser had Priester's curveball, and the Brewers current infield, I suspect his numbers would have looked a lot better.

I think his floor is higher than Logan Henderson's, and his ceiling is similar (but with very different profiles). I think limiting flyballs is really key to finding big league consistency. There's simply too many tiny parks. With that said, I'm probably past the point of straining myself to ignore his NINETY-NINE big league innings.

I've long felt that the organization will trade him when the time comes, but in recent days, seeing his interviews and how the team has hyped him up as their "ace," I can't help but wonder if the team is going to try and extend him (I'm not sure I would support this decision). I am fully aware that that is not how this team has operated, to date, but his case may fit differently than the pitchers traded in recent years. He seems to be an eyes-wide-open, driven professional that is taking nothing for granted. He already signed one extension with the team that raised him as a pro. I think he knows that he'll need to keep performing at a high level to get the next contract. In his interviews it seems like he is big on family, and perhaps by extension, loyalty. He has become a de facto leader. His English is strong enough to really take the lead in interviews and connecting with both teammates and fans. He seems like a "safe" extension in the sense that he's a pro, he'll work his tail off, and he'll be an excellent organizational ambassador. Contract-wise, he's a tier below the tippy-top starters. If he were a free agent today, as a 28-year-old, I think he would get 5 or 6 years. At the end of his current contract (presuming a team picks up the 2026 option), he'll be 31, and I think at that point, he'll only get 3 or 4 years. I think the following contracts would be comparable... 2024 - Eduardo Rodriguez (30 years old) - 4 years - $80M - AAV $20M 2025 - Sean Manaea (32 years old) - 3 years - $75M - AAV $25M 2025 - Sonny Gray (34 years old) - 3 years - $75M - AAV $25M 2025 - Luis Severino (30 years old) - 3 years - $67M - AAV $22M 2022 - Jose Barrios (27 years old) - 7 years - $131M - AAV $19M There's a number of other deals that are comps, including Pablo Lopez, Yusei Kikuchi, Marcus Stroman, etc. Putting all of that together, and assuming that Freddy is WILLING to extend (a big "if"), I can see an extension that includes the Brewers turning down his $8M option in the following ranges... 5 years (2026-2030) for $75M - AAV $15M or 7 years (2026-2032) for $90 - AVV $13M

I know he no longer qualifies as a prospect, but at 24 years old, where would you guys put Priester?

"Why Priester?" A. Groundball%. There were only 6 qualified pitchers last season with a groundball rate of better than 50% (two of which are Red Sox, Houck and Bello). Priester has routinely posted GB% north of that mark. B. HR/9. There were 17 qualified pitchers last season with a HR/9 below 1.0. Priester never had a MiLB season above 0.75. C. K-BB%. There were around 25 qualified pitchers last season with a K-BB% in 16-17% range. Priester's worst MiLB season was 16%, and last season in AAA was at 20%. D. 4+ pitch mix. This guy has starter written all over him, and can spin pitches, having a 70-grade curveball according to some scouts at different times, and has had good velocity at times as well (96-98 mph according to a 2020 scouting report from BA). E. First Round pedigree/good athlete. He has the "look," for whatever that's worth. F. All of the above. Coming up with a wrinkle to his fastball has been his bugaboo -- thus the Corbin Burnes sorts of comparisons. He's already reached his floor as a depth starter, but I think if Priester ends up reaching his ceiling as a Brewer, it will look like Christopher Sanchez, Tanner Houck, or best-case, Framber Valdez. I thought these snippets from old BA scouting reports were interesting. From February of 2020: "He didn't have a pitching coach as an amateur, with a lot of his development self-taught from watching other pitchers on YouTube." From December 2020: "Priester is a studious learner who quickly picks up the game’s newest trends on pitch mechanics and deception." Time will tell if this trade ages well, or poorly, but I think the odds are good that this will end up being a fair, or better trade. I also think the likeliest scenario is that this trade becomes inconsequential over time. Priester becomes a serviceable starter, and the Red Sox never amount to much more than making a 40-man roster.